AF - Finding Deception in Language Models by Esben Kran

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The Innovators & Investors Podcast: Connecting the Startup Ecosystem. We are on a mission to bridge the gap between founders, investors, and industry leaders across the early-stage ecosystem. By bringing together visionaries from cutting-edge startups, venture capitalists, family offices, angel investors, accelerators, and studios, we offer a platform for sharing invaluable insights, market trends, and first-hand experiences. Whether you’re an entrepreneur navigating the challenges of building a business or an investor seeking opportunities in emerging technologies, our podcast provides a front-row seat to the dynamic world of innovation and investment. Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding of the startup landscape, stay ahead of the curve, and benefit from the collective wisdom of those shaping the future. Think you'd be a great guest on the show? Apply at https://finstratmgmt.com/innovators-investors-podcast/

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Finding Deception in Language Models, published by Esben Kran on August 20, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum.
This June, Apart Research and Apollo Research joined forces to host the Deception Detection Hackathon. Bringing together students, researchers, and engineers from around the world to tackle a pressing challenge in AI safety; preventing AI from deceiving humans and overseers.
The hackathon took place both online and in multiple physical locations simultaneously. Marius Hobbhahn, the CEO of Apollo Research, kicked off the hackathon with a keynote talk about evaluating deception in AI with white-box and black-box methods. You can watch his talk
here. We also had talks by Jacob Haimes, an Apart fellow, and Mikita Balesni, a research scientist at Apollo Research.
This post details the top 8 projects, multiple of which are currently being developed further in Apart Lab. In total, we had 189 participants and 21 final entries.
Sandbagging Detection through Model Degradation
By Cam Tice, Philipp Alexander Kreer, Fedor Ryzhenkov, Nathan Helm-Burger, Prithviraj Singh Shahani
The team introduced a new approach to detect AI sandbagging, a form of deception where an AI model strategically underperforms during evaluation to hide its true capabilities. The assumption behind their project is that sandbagging is a more complex task than showing the true capabilities.
In the graph above, you can see how they gradually add noise to the model's parameters and evaluate the models during this process. Sandbagging models consistently improve in performance right before the noise level causes a normal model to lose the capability.
It is a straightforward, inexpensive technique that doesn't require prior assumptions about how sandbagging is represented within the model. They successfully detected sandbagging behavior in two open-source LLMs: An 8B Llama 3 Instruct model and Phi 3 small instruct model. This approach offers a practical and accessible method for identifying potential deception in AI systems.
Read the full project here.
Detecting and Controlling Deceptive Representation in LLMs with Representational Engineering
By Avyay M Casheekar, Kaushik Sanjay Prabhakar, Kanishk Rath, Sienka Dounia
The team focused on detecting and mitigating sandbagging in AI models using recent methods for understanding activations. They fine-tuned a Llama 3 8B model on a custom dataset of deceptive and honest scenarios, then used Linear Artificial Tomography (LAT) scans to detect deceptive behaviors in the internal representations of the LLM.
The team's technique not only identified deceptive behaviors, but also showed promise in mitigating them. Importantly, their approach demonstrated good generalization to out-of-distribution scenarios, suggesting its potential robustness in real-world applications.
Read the full project here.
Detecting Deception in GPT-3.5-turbo: A Metadata-Based Approach
By Siddharth Reddy Bakkireddy, Rakesh Reddy Bakkireddy
This team tackled the challenge of detecting deception in closed-source, black-box models like GPT-3.5-turbo. They investigated whether LLM API response metadata such as token count, response time, and tokens per second could be used to detect intentional deceptive behavior.
The team analyzed 300 prompts and generated 1,200 responses from GPT-3.5-turbo, comparing the metadata of baseline and deceptive outputs. Their results revealed that deceptive outputs tend to have increased response times and altered token usage. This approach demonstrates that deception detection is possible without accessing a model's internal representation, opening up new avenues for monitoring and safeguarding AI systems, even when their inner workings are not accessible.
Read the full project here.
Modelling the Oversight of Automated Interpretability Against Deceptive Agents on Sp...

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The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

AF - Finding Deception in Language Models by Esben Kran

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - The Obliqueness Thesis by Jessica Taylor 30:04

37 weeks پیش30:04

30:04

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Obliqueness Thesis, published by Jessica Taylor on September 19, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. In my Xenosystems review, I discussed the Orthogonality Thesis, concluding that it was a bad metaphor. It's a long post, though, and the comments on orthogonality build on other Xenosystems content. Therefore, I think it may be helpful to present a more concentrated discussion on Orthogonality, contrasting Orthogonality with my own view, without introducing dependencies on Land's views. (Land gets credit for inspiring many of these thoughts, of course, but I'm presenting my views as my own here.) First, let's define the Orthogonality Thesis. Quoting Superintelligence for Bostrom's formulation: Intelligence and final goals are orthogonal: more or less any level of intelligence could in principle be combined with more or less any final goal. To me, the main ambiguity about what this is saying is the "could in principle" part; maybe, for any level of intelligence and any final goal, there exists (in the mathematical sense) an agent combining those, but some combinations are much more natural and statistically likely than others. Let's consider Yudkowsky's formulations as alternatives. Quoting Arbital: The Orthogonality Thesis asserts that there can exist arbitrarily intelligent agents pursuing any kind of goal. The strong form of the Orthogonality Thesis says that there's no extra difficulty or complication in the existence of an intelligent agent that pursues a goal, above and beyond the computational tractability of that goal. As an example of the computational tractability consideration, sufficiently complex goals may only be well-represented by sufficiently intelligent agents. "Complication" may be reflected in, for example, code complexity; to my mind, the strong form implies that the code complexity of an agent with a given level of intelligence and goals is approximately the code complexity of the intelligence plus the code complexity of the goal specification, plus a constant. Code complexity would influence statistical likelihood for the usual Kolmogorov/Solomonoff reasons, of course. I think, overall, it is more productive to examine Yudkowsky's formulation than Bostrom's, as he has already helpfully factored the thesis into weak and strong forms. Therefore, by criticizing Yudkowsky's formulations, I am less likely to be criticizing a strawman. I will use "Weak Orthogonality" to refer to Yudkowsky's "Orthogonality Thesis" and "Strong Orthogonality" to refer to Yudkowsky's "strong form of the Orthogonality Thesis". Land, alternatively, describes a "diagonal" between intelligence and goals as an alternative to orthogonality, but I don't see a specific formulation of a "Diagonality Thesis" on his part. Here's a possible formulation: Diagonality Thesis: Final goals tend to converge to a point as intelligence increases. The main criticism of this thesis is that formulations of ideal agency, in the form of Bayesianism and VNM utility, leave open free parameters, e.g. priors over un-testable propositions, and the utility function. Since I expect few readers to accept the Diagonality Thesis, I will not concentrate on criticizing it. What about my own view? I like Tsvi's naming of it as an "obliqueness thesis". Obliqueness Thesis: The Diagonality Thesis and the Strong Orthogonality Thesis are false. Agents do not tend to factorize into an Orthogonal value-like component and a Diagonal belief-like component; rather, there are Oblique components that do not factorize neatly. (Here, by Orthogonal I mean basically independent of intelligence, and by Diagonal I mean converging to a point in the limit of intelligence.) While I will address Yudkowsky's arguments for the Orthogonality Thesis, I think arguing directly for my view first will be more helpful. In general, it seems ...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Secret Collusion: Will We Know When to Unplug AI? by schroederdewitt 57:38

38 weeks پیش57:38

57:38

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Secret Collusion: Will We Know When to Unplug AI?, published by schroederdewitt on September 16, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. TL;DR: We introduce the first comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding and mitigating secret collusion among advanced AI agents, along with CASE, a novel model evaluation framework. CASE assesses the cryptographic and steganographic capabilities of agents, while exploring the emergence of secret collusion in real-world-like multi-agent settings. Whereas current AI models aren't yet proficient in advanced steganography, our findings show rapid improvements in individual and collective model capabilities, posing unprecedented safety and security risks. These results highlight urgent challenges for AI governance and policy, urging institutions such as the EU AI Office and AI safety bodies in the UK and US to prioritize cryptographic and steganographic evaluations of frontier models. Our research also opens up critical new pathways for research within the AI Control framework. Philanthropist and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt said in 2023 at a Harvard event: "[...] the computers are going to start talking to each other probably in a language that we can't understand and collectively their super intelligence - that's the term we use in the industry - is going to rise very rapidly and my retort to that is: do you know what we're going to do in that scenario? We're going to unplug them [...] But what if we cannot unplug them in time because we won't be able to detect the moment when this happens? In this blog post, we, for the first time, provide a comprehensive overview of the phenomenon of secret collusion among AI agents, connect it to foundational concepts in steganography, information theory, distributed systems theory, and computability, and present a model evaluation framework and empirical results as a foundation of future frontier model evaluations. This blog post summarises a large body of work. First of all, it contains our pre-print from February 2024 (updated in September 2024) "Secret Collusion among Generative AI Agents". An early form of this pre-print was presented at the 2023 New Orleans (NOLA) Alignment Workshop (see this recording NOLA 2023 Alignment Forum Talk Secret Collusion Among Generative AI Agents: a Model Evaluation Framework). Also, check out this long-form Foresight Institute Talk). In addition to these prior works, we also include new results. These contain empirical studies on the impact of paraphrasing as a mitigation tool against steganographic communications, as well as reflections on our findings' impact on AI Control. Multi-Agent Safety and Security in the Age of Autonomous Internet Agents The near future could see myriads of LLM-driven AI agents roam the internet, whether on social media platforms, eCommerce marketplaces, or blockchains. Given advances in predictive capabilities, these agents are likely to engage in increasingly complex intentional and unintentional interactions, ranging from traditional distributed systems pathologies (think dreaded deadlocks!) to more complex coordinated feedback loops. Such a scenario induces a variety of multi-agent safety, and specifically, multi-agent security[1] (see our NeurIPS'23 workshop Multi-Agent Security: Security as Key to AI Safety) concerns related to data exfiltration, multi-agent deception, and, fundamentally, undermining trust in AI systems. There are several real-world scenarios where agents could have access to sensitive information, such as their principals' preferences, which they may disclose unsafely even if they are safety-aligned when considered in isolation. Stray incentives, intentional or otherwise, or more broadly, optimization pressures, could cause agents to interact in undesirable and potentially dangerous ways. For example, join...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Estimating Tail Risk in Neural Networks by Jacob Hilton 41:11

38 weeks پیش41:11

41:11

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Estimating Tail Risk in Neural Networks, published by Jacob Hilton on September 13, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Machine learning systems are typically trained to maximize average-case performance. However, this method of training can fail to meaningfully control the probability of tail events that might cause significant harm. For instance, while an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant may be generally safe, it would be catastrophic if it ever suggested an action that resulted in unnecessary large-scale harm. Current techniques for estimating the probability of tail events are based on finding inputs on which an AI behaves catastrophically. Since the input space is so large, it might be prohibitive to search through it thoroughly enough to detect all potential catastrophic behavior. As a result, these techniques cannot be used to produce AI systems that we are confident will never behave catastrophically. We are excited about techniques to estimate the probability of tail events that do not rely on finding inputs on which an AI behaves badly, and can thus detect a broader range of catastrophic behavior. We think developing such techniques is an exciting problem to work on to reduce the risk posed by advanced AI systems: Estimating tail risk is a conceptually straightforward problem with relatively objective success criteria; we are predicting something mathematically well-defined, unlike instances of eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) where we are predicting an informal concept like "diamond". Improved methods for estimating tail risk could reduce risk from a variety of sources, including central misalignment risks like deceptive alignment. Improvements to current methods can be found both by doing empirical research, or by thinking about the problem from a theoretical angle. This document will discuss the problem of estimating the probability of tail events and explore estimation strategies that do not rely on finding inputs on which an AI behaves badly. In particular, we will: Introduce a toy scenario about an AI engineering assistant for which we want to estimate the probability of a catastrophic tail event. Explain some deficiencies of adversarial training, the most common method for reducing risk in contemporary AI systems. Discuss deceptive alignment as a particularly dangerous case in which adversarial training might fail. Present methods for estimating the probability of tail events in neural network behavior that do not rely on evaluating behavior on concrete inputs. Conclude with a discussion of why we are excited about work aimed at improving estimates of the probability of tail events. This document describes joint research done with Jacob Hilton, Victor Lecomte, David Matolcsi, Eric Neyman, Thomas Read, George Robinson, and Gabe Wu. Thanks additionally to Ajeya Cotra, Lukas Finnveden, and Erik Jenner for helpful comments and suggestions. A Toy Scenario Consider a powerful AI engineering assistant. Write M for this AI system, and M(x) for the action it suggests given some project description x. We want to use this system to help with various engineering projects, but would like it to never suggest an action that results in large-scale harm, e.g. creating a doomsday device. In general, we define a behavior as catastrophic if it must never occur in the real world.[1] An input is catastrophic if it would lead to catastrophic behavior. Assume we can construct a catastrophe detector C that tells us if an action M(x) will result in large-scale harm. For the purposes of this example, we will assume both that C has a reasonable chance of catching all catastrophes and that it is feasible to find a useful engineering assistant M that never triggers C (see Catastrophe Detectors for further discussion). We will also assume we can use C to train M, but that it is ...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Can startups be impactful in AI safety? by Esben Kran 11:54

38 weeks پیش11:54

11:54

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Can startups be impactful in AI safety?, published by Esben Kran on September 13, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. With Lakera's strides in securing LLM APIs, Goodfire AI's path to scaling interpretability, and 20+ model evaluations startups among much else, there's a rising number of technical startups attempting to secure the model ecosystem. Of course, they have varying levels of impact on superintelligence containment and security and even with these companies, there's a lot of potential for aligned, ambitious and high-impact startups within the ecosystem. This point isn't new and has been made in our previous posts and by Eric Ho (Goodfire AI CEO). To set the stage, our belief is that these are the types of companies that will have a positive impact: Startups with a profit incentive completely aligned with improving AI safety; that have a deep technical background to shape AGI deployment and; do not try to compete with AGI labs. Piloting AI safety startups To understand impactful technical AI safety startups better, Apart Research joined forces with collaborators from Juniper Ventures, vectorview (alumni from the latest YC cohort), Rudolf (from the upcoming def/acc cohort), Tangentic AI, and others. We then invited researchers, engineers, and students to resolve a key question "can we come up with ideas that scale AI safety into impactful for-profits?" The hackathon took place during a weekend two weeks ago with a keynote by Esben Kran (co-director of Apart) along with 'HackTalks' by Rudolf Laine (def/acc) and Lukas Petersson (YC / vectorview). Individual submissions were a 4 page report with the problem statement, why this solution will work, what the key risks of said solution are, and any experiments or demonstrations of the solution the team made. This post details the top 6 projects and excludes 2 projects that were made private by request (hopefully turning into impactful startups now!). In total, we had 101 signups and 11 final entries. Winners were decided by an LME model conditioned on reviewer bias. Watch the authors' lightning talks here. Dark Forest: Making the web more trustworthy with third-party content verification By Mustafa Yasir (AI for Cyber Defense Research Centre, Alan Turing Institute) Abstract: 'DarkForest is a pioneering Human Content Verification System (HCVS) designed to safeguard the authenticity of online spaces in the face of increasing AI-generated content. By leveraging graph-based reinforcement learning and blockchain technology, DarkForest proposes a novel approach to safeguarding the authentic and humane web. We aim to become the vanguard in the arms race between AI-generated content and human-centric online spaces.' Content verification workflow supported by graph-based RL agents deciding verifications Reviewer comments: Natalia: Well explained problem with clear need addressed. I love that you included the content creation process - although you don't explicitly address how you would attract content creators to use your platform over others in their process. Perhaps exploring what features of platforms drive creators to each might help you make a compelling case for using yours beyond the verification capabilities. I would have also liked to see more details on how the verification decision is made and how accurate this is on existing datasets. Nick: There's a lot of valuable stuff in here regarding content moderation and identity verification. I'd narrow it to one problem-solution pair (e.g., "jobs to be done") and focus more on risks around early product validation (deep interviews with a range of potential users and buyers regarding value) and go-to-market. It might also be worth checking out Musubi. Read the full project here. Simulation Operators: An annotation operation for alignment of robot By Ardy Haroen (USC) Abstrac...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - How difficult is AI Alignment? by Samuel Dylan Martin 39:38

38 weeks پیش39:38

39:38

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How difficult is AI Alignment?, published by Samuel Dylan Martin on September 13, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. This work was funded by Polaris Ventures There is currently no consensus on how difficult the AI alignment problem is. We have yet to encounter any real-world, in the wild instances of the most concerning threat models, like deceptive misalignment. However, there are compelling theoretical arguments which suggest these failures will arise eventually. Will current alignment methods accidentally train deceptive, power-seeking AIs that appear aligned, or not? We must make decisions about which techniques to avoid and which are safe despite not having a clear answer to this question. To this end, a year ago, we introduced the AI alignment difficulty scale, a framework for understanding the increasing challenges of aligning artificial intelligence systems with human values. This follow-up article revisits our original scale, exploring how our understanding of alignment difficulty has evolved and what new insights we've gained. This article will explore three main themes that have emerged as central to our understanding: 1. The Escalation of Alignment Challenges: We'll examine how alignment difficulties increase as we go up the scale, from simple reward hacking to complex scenarios involving deception and gradient hacking. Through concrete examples, we'll illustrate these shifting challenges and why they demand increasingly advanced solutions. These examples will illustrate what observations we should expect to see "in the wild" at different levels, which might change our minds about how easy or difficult alignment is. 2. Dynamics Across the Difficulty Spectrum: We'll explore the factors that change as we progress up the scale, including the increasing difficulty of verifying alignment, the growing disconnect between alignment and capabilities research, and the critical question of which research efforts are net positive or negative in light of these challenges. 3. Defining and Measuring Alignment Difficulty: We'll tackle the complex task of precisely defining "alignment difficulty," breaking down the technical, practical, and other factors that contribute to the alignment problem. This analysis will help us better understand the nature of the problem we're trying to solve and what factors contribute to it. The Scale The high level of the alignment problem, provided in the previous post, was: "The alignment problem" is the problem of aligning sufficiently powerful AI systems, such that we can be confident they will be able to reduce the risks posed by misused or unaligned AI systems We previously introduced the AI alignment difficulty scale, with 10 levels that map out the increasing challenges. The scale ranges from "alignment by default" to theoretical impossibility, with each level representing more complex scenarios requiring more advanced solutions. It is reproduced here: Alignment Difficulty Scale Difficulty Level Alignment technique X is sufficient Description Key Sources of risk 1 (Strong) Alignment by Default As we scale up AI models without instructing or training them for specific risky behaviour or imposing problematic and clearly bad goals (like 'unconditionally make money'), they do not pose significant risks. Even superhuman systems basically do the commonsense version of what external rewards (if RL) or language instructions (if LLM) imply. Misuse and/or recklessness with training objectives. RL of powerful models towards badly specified or antisocial objectives is still possible, including accidentally through poor oversight, recklessness or structural factors. 2 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback We need to ensure that the AI behaves well even in edge cases by guiding it more carefully using human feedback in a wide range of situations...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting by nikos 14:36

38 weeks پیش14:36

14:36

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting, published by nikos on September 12, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. [Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a company working on AI-powered forecasting and other types of quantitative reasoning. If thin LLM wrappers could achieve superhuman forecasting performance, this would obsolete a lot of our work.] Widespread, misleading claims about AI forecasting Recently we have seen a number of papers - (Schoenegger et al., 2024, Halawi et al., 2024, Phan et al., 2024, Hsieh et al., 2024) - with claims that boil down to "we built an LLM-powered forecaster that rivals human forecasters or even shows superhuman performance". These papers do not communicate their results carefully enough, shaping public perception in inaccurate and misleading ways. Some examples of public discourse: Ethan Mollick (>200k followers) tweeted the following about the paper Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy by Schoenegger et al.: A post on Marginal Revolution with the title and abstract of the paper Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models by Halawi et al. elicits responses like "This is something that humans are notably terrible at, even if they're paid to do it. No surprise that LLMs can match us." "+1 The aggregate human success rate is a pretty low bar" A Twitter thread with >500k views on LLMs Are Superhuman Forecasters by Phan et al. claiming that "AI […] can predict the future at a superhuman level" had more than half a million views within two days of being published. The number of such papers on AI forecasting, and the vast amount of traffic on misleading claims, makes AI forecasting a uniquely misunderstood area of AI progress. And it's one that matters. What does human-level or superhuman forecasting mean? "Human-level" or "superhuman" is a hard-to-define concept. In an academic context, we need to work with a reasonable operationalization to compare the skill of an AI forecaster with that of humans. One reasonable and practical definition of a superhuman forecasting AI forecaster is The AI forecaster is able to consistently outperform the crowd forecast on a sufficiently large number of randomly selected questions on a high-quality forecasting platform.[1] (For a human-level forecaster, just replace "outperform" with "performs on par with".) Red flags for claims to (super)human AI forecasting accuracy Our experience suggests there are a number of things that can go wrong when building AI forecasting systems, including: 1. Failing to find up-to-date information on the questions. It's inconceivable on most questions that forecasts can be good without basic information. Imagine trying to forecast the US presidential election without knowing that Biden dropped out. 2. Drawing on up-to-date, but low-quality information. Ample experience shows low quality information confuses LLMs even more than it confuses humans. Imagine forecasting election outcomes with biased polling data. Or, worse, imagine forecasting OpenAI revenue based on claims like > The number of ChatGPT Plus subscribers is estimated between 230,000-250,000 as of October 2023. without realising that this mixing up ChatGPT vs ChatGPT mobile. 3. Lack of high-quality quantitative reasoning. For a decent number of questions on Metaculus, good forecasts can be "vibed" by skilled humans and perhaps LLMs. But for many questions, simple calculations are likely essential. Human performance shows systematic accuracy nearly always requires simple models such as base rates, time-series extrapolations, and domain-specific numbers. Imagine forecasting stock prices without having, and using, historical volatility. 4. Retrospective, rather than prospective, forecasting (e.g. forecasting questions that have al...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - AI forecasting bots incoming by Dan H 7:53

39 weeks پیش7:53

7:53

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AI forecasting bots incoming, published by Dan H on September 9, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. In a recent appearance on Conversations with Tyler, famed political forecaster Nate Silver expressed skepticism about AIs replacing human forecasters in the near future. When asked how long it might take for AIs to reach superhuman forecasting abilities, Silver replied: "15 or 20 [years]." In light of this, we are excited to announce "FiveThirtyNine," an AI forecasting bot. Our bot, built on GPT-4o, provides probabilities for any user-entered query, including " Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election?" and " Will China invade Taiwan by 2030?" Our bot performs better than experienced human forecasters and performs roughly the same as (and sometimes even better than) crowds of experienced forecasters; since crowds are for the most part superhuman, FiveThirtyNine is in a similar sense. (We discuss limitations later in this post.) Our bot and other forecasting bots can be used in a wide variety of contexts. For example, these AIs could help policymakers minimize bias in their decision-making or help improve global epistemics and institutional decision-making by providing trustworthy, calibrated forecasts. We hope that forecasting bots like ours will be quickly integrated into frontier AI models. For now, we will keep our bot available at forecast.safe.ai, where users are free to experiment and test its capabilities. Quick Links Demo: forecast.safe.ai Technical Report: link Problem Policymakers at the highest echelons of government and corporate power have difficulty making high-quality decisions on complicated topics. As the world grows increasingly complex, even coming to a consensus agreement on basic facts is becoming more challenging, as it can be hard to absorb all the relevant information or know which sources to trust. Separately, online discourse could be greatly improved. Discussions on uncertain, contentious issues all too often devolve into battles between interest groups, each intent on name-calling and spouting the most extreme versions of their views through highly biased op-eds and tweets. FiveThirtyNine Before transitioning to how forecasting bots like FiveThirtyNine can help improve epistemics, it might be helpful to give a summary of what FiveThirtyNine is and how it works. FiveThirtyNine can be given a query - for example, "Will Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?" FiveThirtyNine is prompted to behave like an "AI that is superhuman at forecasting". It is then asked to make a series of search engine queries for news and opinion articles that might contribute to its prediction. (The following example from FiveThirtyNine uses GPT-4o as the base LLM.) Based on these sources and its wealth of prior knowledge, FiveThirtyNine compiles a summary of key facts. Given these facts, it's asked to give reasons for and against Trump winning the election, before weighing each reason based on its strength and salience. Finally, FiveThirtyNine aggregates its considerations while adjusting for negativity and sensationalism bias in news sources and outputs a tentative probability. It is asked to sanity check this probability and adjust it up or down based on further reasoning, before putting out a final, calibrated probability - in this case, 52%. Evaluation. To test how well our bot performs, we evaluated it on questions from the Metaculus forecasting platform. We restricted the bot to make predictions only using the information human forecasters had, ensuring a valid comparison. Specifically, GPT-4o is only trained on data up to October 2023, and we restricted the news and opinion articles it could access to only those published before a certain date. From there, we asked it to compute the probabilities of 177 events from Metaculus that had happened (or not ha...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Backdoors as an analogy for deceptive alignment by Jacob Hilton 14:45

39 weeks پیش14:45

14:45

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Backdoors as an analogy for deceptive alignment, published by Jacob Hilton on September 6, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. ARC has released a paper on Backdoor defense, learnability and obfuscation in which we study a formal notion of backdoors in ML models. Part of our motivation for this is an analogy between backdoors and deceptive alignment, the possibility that an AI system would intentionally behave well in training in order to give itself the opportunity to behave uncooperatively later. In our paper, we prove several theoretical results that shed some light on possible mitigations for deceptive alignment, albeit in a way that is limited by the strength of this analogy. In this post, we will: Lay out the analogy between backdoors and deceptive alignment Discuss prior theoretical results from the perspective of this analogy Explain our formal notion of backdoors and its strengths and weaknesses Summarize the results in our paper and discuss their implications for deceptive alignment Thanks to Boaz Barak, Roger Grosse, Thomas Read, John Schulman and Gabriel Wu for helpful comments. Backdoors and deceptive alignment A backdoor in an ML model is a modification to the model that causes it to behave differently on certain inputs that activate a secret "trigger", while behaving similarly on ordinary inputs. There is a wide existing literature on backdoor attacks and defenses, which is primarily empirical, but also includes some theoretical results that we will mention. Deceptive alignment is a term from the paper Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems (Section 4) that refers to the possibility that an AI system will internally reason about the objective that it is being trained on, and decide to perform well according to that objective unless there are clues that it has been taken out of its training environment. Such a policy could be optimal on the training distribution, and yet perform very badly on certain out-of-distribution inputs where such clues are present, which we call defection triggers.[1] The opposite of deceptive alignment is robust alignment, meaning that this performance degradation is avoided. Since a deceptively aligned model and a robustly aligned model behave very differently on defection triggers, but very similarly on typical inputs from the training distribution, deceptive alignment can be thought of as a special kind of backdoor, under the following correspondence: Deceptive alignment Backdoors Robustly aligned model Original (unmodified) model Deceptively aligned model Backdoored model Defection trigger Backdoor trigger The main distinguishing feature of deceptive alignment compared to other kinds of backdoors is that the deceptively aligned model is not produced by an adversary, but is instead produced through ordinary training. Thus by treating deceptive alignment as a backdoor, we are modeling the training process as an adversary. In our analysis of deceptive alignment, the basic tension we will face is that an unconstrained adversary will always win, but any particular proxy constraint we impose on the adversary may be unrealistic. Static backdoor detection An important piece of prior work is the paper Planting Undetectable Backdoors in Machine Learning Models, which uses a digital signature scheme to insert an undetectable backdoor into a model. Roughly speaking, the authors exhibit a modified version of a "Random Fourier Features" training algorithm that produces a backdoored model. Any input to the backdoored model can be perturbed by an attacker with knowledge of a secret key to produce a new input on which the model behaves differently. However, the backdoor is undetectable in the sense that it is computationally infeasible for a defender with white-box access to distinguish a backdoored model from an or...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Conflating value alignment and intent alignment is causing confusion by Seth Herd 13:40

39 weeks پیش13:40

13:40

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Conflating value alignment and intent alignment is causing confusion, published by Seth Herd on September 5, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Submitted to the Alignment Forum. Contains more technical jargon than usual. Epistemic status: I think something like this confusion is happening often. I'm not saying these are the only differences in what people mean by "AGI alignment". Summary: Value alignment is better but probably harder to achieve than personal intent alignment to the short-term wants of some person(s). Different groups and people tend to primarily address one of these alignment targets when they discuss alignment. Confusion abounds. One important confusion stems from an assumption that the type of AI defines the alignment target: strong goal-directed AGI must be value aligned or misaligned, while personal intent alignment is only viable for relatively weak AI. I think this assumption is important but false. While value alignment is categorically better, intent alignment seems easier, safer, and more appealing in the short term, so AGI project leaders are likely to try it.[1] Overview Clarifying what people mean by alignment should dispel some illusory disagreement, and clarify alignment theory and predictions of AGI outcomes. Caption: Venn diagram of three types of alignment targets. Value alignment and Personal intent alignment are both subsets of Evan Hubinger's definition of intent alignment: AGI aligned with human intent in the broadest sense. Prosaic alignment work usually seems to be addressing a target somewhere in the neighborhood of personal intent alignment (following instructions or doing what this person wants now), while agent foundations and other conceptual alignment work usually seems to be addressing value alignment. Those two clusters have different strengths and weaknesses as alignment targets, so lumping them together produces confusion. People mean different things when they say alignment. Some are mostly thinking about value alignment (VA): creating sovereign AGI that has values close enough to humans' for our liking. Others are talking about making AGI that is corrigible (in the Christiano or Harms sense)[2] or follows instructions from its designated principal human(s). I'm going to use the term personal intent alignment (PIA) until someone has a better term for that type of alignment target. Different arguments and intuitions apply to these two alignment goals, so talking about them without differentiation is creating illusory disagreements. Value alignment is better almost by definition, but personal intent alignment seems to avoid some of the biggest difficulties of value alignment. Max Harms' recent sequence on corrigibility as a singular target (CAST) gives both a nice summary and detailed arguments. We do not need us to point to or define values, just short term preferences or instructions. The principal advantage is that an AGI that follows instructions can be used as a collaborator in improving its alignment over time; you don't need to get it exactly right on the first try. This is more helpful in slower and more continuous takeoffs. This means that PI alignment has a larger basin of attraction than value alignment does.[3] Most people who think alignment is fairly achievable seem to be thinking of PIA, while critics often respond thinking of value alignment. It would help to be explicit. PIA is probably easier and more likely than full VA for our first stabs at AGI, but there are reasons to wonder if it's adequate for real success. In particular, there are intuitions and arguments that PIA doesn't address the real problem of AGI alignment. I think PIA does address the real problem, but in a non-obvious and counterintuitive way. Another unstated divide There's another important clustering around these two conceptions of al...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Is there any rigorous work on using anthropic uncertainty to prevent situational awareness / deception? by David Scott Krueger 1:01

39 weeks پیش1:01

1:01

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Is there any rigorous work on using anthropic uncertainty to prevent situational awareness / deception?, published by David Scott Krueger on September 4, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. AI systems up to some high level of intelligence plausibly need to know exactly where they are in space-time in order for deception/"scheming" to make sense as a strategy. This is because they need to know: 1) what sort of oversight they are subject to and 2) what effects their actions will have on the real world (side note: Acausal trade might break this argument) There are a number of informal proposals to keep AI systems selectively ignorant of (1) and (2) in order to prevent deception. Those proposals seem very promising to flesh out; I'm not aware of any rigorous work doing so, however. Are you? Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - The Checklist: What Succeeding at AI Safety Will Involve by Sam Bowman 35:25

40 weeks پیش35:25

35:25

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Checklist: What Succeeding at AI Safety Will Involve, published by Sam Bowman on September 3, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Crossposted by habryka with Sam's permission. Expect lower probability for Sam to respond to comments here than if he had posted it. Preface This piece reflects my current best guess at the major goals that Anthropic (or another similarly positioned AI developer) will need to accomplish to have things go well with the development of broadly superhuman AI. Given my role and background, it's disproportionately focused on technical research and on averting emerging catastrophic risks. For context, I lead a technical AI safety research group at Anthropic, and that group has a pretty broad and long-term mandate, so I spend a lot of time thinking about what kind of safety work we'll need over the coming years. This piece is my own opinionated take on that question, though it draws very heavily on discussions with colleagues across the organization: Medium- and long-term AI safety strategy is the subject of countless leadership discussions and Google docs and lunch-table discussions within the organization, and this piece is a snapshot (shared with permission) of where those conversations sometimes go. To be abundantly clear: Nothing here is a firm commitment on behalf of Anthropic, and most people at Anthropic would disagree with at least a few major points here, but this can hopefully still shed some light on the kind of thinking that motivates our work. Here are some of the assumptions that the piece relies on. I don't think any one of these is a certainty, but all of them are plausible enough to be worth taking seriously when making plans: Broadly human-level AI is possible. I'll often refer to this as transformative AI (or TAI), roughly defined as AI that could form as a drop-in replacement for humans in all remote-work-friendly jobs, including AI R&D.[1] Broadly human-level AI (or TAI) isn't an upper bound on most AI capabilities that matter, and substantially superhuman systems could have an even greater impact on the world along many dimensions. If TAI is possible, it will probably be developed this decade, in a business and policy and cultural context that's not wildly different from today. If TAI is possible, it could be used to dramatically accelerate AI R&D, potentially leading to the development of substantially superhuman systems within just a few months or years after TAI. Powerful AI systems could be extraordinarily destructive if deployed carelessly, both because of new emerging risks and because of existing issues that become much more acute. This could be through misuse of weapons-related capabilities, by disrupting important balances of power in domains like cybersecurity or surveillance, or by any of a number of other means. Many systems at TAI and beyond, at least under the right circumstances, will be capable of operating more-or-less autonomously for long stretches in pursuit of big-picture, real-world goals. This magnifies these safety challenges. Alignment - in the narrow sense of making sure AI developers can confidently steer the behavior of the AI systems they deploy - requires some non-trivial effort to get right, and it gets harder as systems get more powerful. Most of the ideas here ultimately come from outside Anthropic, and while I cite a few sources below, I've been influenced by far more writings and people than I can credit here or even keep track of. Introducing the Checklist This lays out what I think we need to do, divided into three chapters, based on the capabilities of our strongest models: Chapter 1: Preparation You are here. In this period, our best models aren't yet TAI. In the language of Anthropic's RSP, they're at AI Safety Level 2 (ASL-2), ASL-3, or maybe the early stages of ASL-4. Most of the wor...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI? by Nick Corvino 19:38

40 weeks پیش19:38

19:38

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI?, published by Nick Corvino on September 2, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Intro In April 2024, my colleague and I (both affiliated with Peking University) conducted a survey involving 510 students from Tsinghua University and 518 students from Peking University - China's two top academic institutions. Our focus was on their perspectives regarding the frontier risks of artificial intelligence. In the People's Republic of China (PRC), publicly accessible survey data on AI is relatively rare, so we hope this report provides some valuable insights into how people in the PRC are thinking about AI (especially the risks). Throughout this post, I'll do my best to weave in other data reflecting the broader Chinese sentiment toward AI. For similar research, check out The Center for Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, YouGov, Monmouth University, The Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute, and notably, a poll conducted by Rethink Priorities, which closely informed our survey design. You can read the full report published in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief here: Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI? Key Takeaways Students are more optimistic about the benefits of AI than concerned about the harms. 80 percent of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that AI will do more good than harm for society, with only 7.5 percent actively believing the harms could outweigh the benefits. This, similar to other polling, indicates that the PRC is one of the most optimistic countries concerning the development of AI. Students strongly believe the Chinese government should regulate AI. 85.31 percent of respondents believe AI should be regulated by the government, with only 6 percent actively believing it should not. This contrasts with trends seen in other countries, where there is typically a positive correlation between optimism about AI and calls for minimizing regulation. The strong support for regulation in the PRC, even as optimism about AI remains high, suggests a distinct perspective on the role of government oversight in the PRC context. Students ranked AI the lowest among all possible existential threats to humanity. When asked about the most likely causes of human extinction, misaligned artificial intelligence received the lowest score. Nuclear war, natural disaster, climate change, and pandemics all proved more concerning for students. Students lean towards cooperation between the United States and the PRC as necessary for the safe and responsible development of AI. 60.7 percent of respondents believe AI will not be developed safely without cooperation between China and the U.S., with 25.68 percent believing it will develop safely no matter the level of cooperation. Students are most concerned about the use of AI for surveillance. This was followed by misinformation, existential risk, wealth inequality, increased political tension, various issues related to bias, with the suffering of artificial entities receiving the lowest score. Background As the recent decision (决定) document from the Third Plenum meetings in July made clear, AI is one of eight technologies that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership sees as critical for achieving "Chinese-style modernization (中国式现代化)," and is central to the strategy of centering the country's economic future around breakthroughs in frontier science ( People's Daily, July 22). The PRC also seeks to shape international norms on AI, including on AI risks. In October 2023, Xi Jinping announced a "Global AI Governance Initiative (全球人工智能治理倡议)" ( CAC, October 18, 2023). Tsinghua and Peking Universty are the two most prestigious universities in the PRC (by far), many of whose graduates will be very influential in shaping the cou...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Can a Bayesian Oracle Prevent Harm from an Agent? (Bengio et al. 2024) by Matt MacDermott 8:04

40 weeks پیش8:04

8:04

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Can a Bayesian Oracle Prevent Harm from an Agent? (Bengio et al. 2024), published by Matt MacDermott on September 1, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Yoshua Bengio wrote a blogpost about a new AI safety paper by him, various collaborators, and me. I've pasted the text below, but first here are a few comments from me aimed at an AF/LW audience. The paper is basically maths plus some toy experiments. It assumes access to a Bayesian oracle that can infer a posterior over hypotheses given data, and can also estimate probabilities for some negative outcome ("harm"). It proposes some conservative decision rules one could use to reject actions proposed by an agent, and proves probabilistic bounds on their performance under appropriate assumptions. I expect the median reaction in these parts to be something like: ok, I'm sure there are various conservative decision rules you could apply using a Bayesian oracle, but isn't obtaining a Bayesian oracle the hard part here? Doesn't that involve advances in Bayesian machine learning, and also probably solving ELK to get the harm estimates? My answer to that is: yes, I think so. I think Yoshua does too, and that that's the centre of his research agenda. Probably the main interest of this paper to people here is to provide an update on Yoshua's research plans. In particular it gives some more context on what the "guaranteed safe AI" part of his approach might look like -- design your system to do explicit Bayesian inference, and make an argument that the system is safe based on probabilistic guarantees about the behaviour of a Bayesian inference machine. This is in contrast to more hardcore approaches that want to do formal verification by model-checking. You should probably think of the ambition here as more like "a safety case involving proofs" than "a formal proof of safety". Bounding the probability of harm from an AI to create a guardrail Published 29 August 2024 by yoshuabengio As we move towards more powerful AI, it becomes urgent to better understand the risks, ideally in a mathematically rigorous and quantifiable way, and use that knowledge to mitigate them. Is there a way to design powerful AI systems based on machine learning methods that would satisfy probabilistic safety guarantees, i.e., would be provably unlikely to take a harmful action? Current AI safety evaluations and benchmarks test the AI for cases where it may behave badly, e.g., by providing answers that could yield dangerous misuse. That is useful and should be legally required with flexible regulation, but is not sufficient. These tests only tell us one side of the story: If they detect bad behavior, a flag is raised and we know that something must be done to mitigate the risks. However, if they do not raise such a red flag, we may still have a dangerous AI in our hands, especially since the testing conditions might be different from the deployment setting, and attackers (or an out-of-control AI) may be creative in ways that the tests did not consider. Most concerningly, AI systems could simply recognize they are being tested and have a temporary incentive to behave appropriately while being tested. Part of the problem is that such tests are spot checks. They are trying to evaluate the risk associated with the AI in general by testing it on special cases. Another option would be to evaluate the risk on a case-by-case basis and reject queries or answers that are considered to potentially violate or safety specification. With the long-term goal of obtaining a probabilistic guarantee that would apply in every context, we thus consider in this new paper (see reference and co-authors below) the objective of estimating a context-dependent upper bound on the probability of violating a given safety specification. Such a risk evaluation would need to be performed at ru...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Epistemic states as a potential benign prior by Tamsin Leake 13:38

40 weeks پیش13:38

13:38

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Epistemic states as a potential benign prior, published by Tamsin Leake on August 31, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Malignancy in the prior seems like a strong crux of the goal-design part of alignment to me. Whether your prior is going to be used to model: processes in the multiverse containing a specific "beacon" bitstring, processes in the multiverse containing the AI, processes which would output all of my blog, so I can make it output more for me, processes which match an AI chatbot's hypotheses about what it's talking with, then you have to sample hypotheses from somewhere; and typically, we want to use either solomonoff induction or time-penalized versions of it such as levin search (penalized by log of runtime) or what QACI uses (penalized by runtime, but with quantum computation available in some cases), or the implicit prior of neural networks (large sequences of multiplying by a matrix, adding a vector, and ReLU, often with a penalty related to how many non-zero weights are used). And the solomonoff prior is famously malign. (Alternatively, you could have knightian uncertainty about parts of your prior that aren't nailed down enough, and then do maximin over your knightian uncertainty (like in infra-bayesianism), but then you're not guaranteed that your AI gets anywhere at all; its knightian uncertainty might remain so immense that the AI keeps picking the null action all the time because some of its knightian hypotheses still say that anything else is a bad idea. Note: I might be greatly misunderstanding knightian uncertainty!) (It does seem plausible that doing geometric expectation over hypotheses in the prior helps "smooth things over" in some way, but I don't think this particularly removes the weight of malign hypotheses in the prior? It just allocates their steering power in a different way, which might make things less bad, but it sounds difficult to quantify.) It does feel to me like we do want a prior for the AI to do expected value calculations over, either for prediction or for utility maximization (or quantilization or whatever). One helpful aspect of prior-distribution-design is that, in many cases, I don't think the prior needs to contain the true hypothesis. For example, if the problem that we're using a prior for is to model processes which match an AI chatbot's hypotheses about what it's talking with then we don't need the AI's prior to contain a process which behaves just like the human user it's interacting with; rather, we just need the AI's prior to contain a hypothesis which: is accurate enough to match observations. is accurate enough to capture the fact that the user (if we pick a good user) implements the kind of decision theory that lets us rely on them pointing back to the actual real physical user when they get empowered - i.e. in CEV(user-hypothesis), user-hypothesis builds and then runs CEV(physical-user), because that's what the user would do in such a situation. Let's call this second criterion "cooperating back to the real user". So we need a prior which: Has at least some mass on hypotheses which correspond to observations cooperate back to the real user and can eventually be found by the AI, given enough evidence (enough chatting with the user) Call this the "aligned hypothesis". Before it narrows down hypothesis space to mostly just aligned hypotheses, doesn't give enough weight to demonic hypothesis which output whichever predictions cause the AI to brainhack its physical user, or escape using rowhammer-type hardware vulnerabilities, or other failures like that. Formalizing the chatbot model First, I'll formalize this chatbot model. Let's say we have a magical inner-aligned "soft" math-oracle: Which, given a "scoring" mathematical function from a non-empty set a to real numbers (not necessarily one that is tractably ...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - AIS terminology proposal: standardize terms for probability ranges by Egg Syntax 5:24

40 weeks پیش5:24

5:24

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AIS terminology proposal: standardize terms for probability ranges, published by Egg Syntax on August 30, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Summary: The AI safety research community should adopt standardized terms for probability ranges, especially in public-facing communication and especially when discussing risk estimates. The terms used by the IPCC are a reasonable default. Science communication is notoriously hard. It's hard for a lot of reasons, but one is that laypeople aren't used to thinking in numerical probabilities or probability ranges. One field that's had to deal with this more than most is climatology; climate change has been rather controversial, and a non-trivial aspect of that has been lay confusion about what climatologists are actually saying[1]. As a result, the well-known climate assessment reports from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have, since the 1990s, used explicitly defined terms for probability ranges[2]: (see below for full figure[3]) Like climatology, AI safety research has become a topic of controversy. In both cases, the controversy includes a mix of genuine scientific disagreement, good-faith confusion, and bad-faith opposition. Scientific disagreement comes from people who can deal with numerical probability ranges. Those who are arguing in bad faith from ulterior motives generally don't care about factual details. But I suspect that the large majority of those who disagree, especially laypeople, are coming from a place of genuine, good-faith confusion. For those people, anything we as practitioners can do to communicate more clearly is quite valuable. Also like climatology, AI safety research, especially assessments of risk, fundamentally involves communicating about probabilities and probability ranges. Therefore I propose that the AIS community follow climatologists in adopting standard terms for probability ranges, especially in position papers and public-facing communication. In less formal and less public-facing contexts, using standard terminology still adds some value but is less important; in sufficiently informal contexts it's probably not worth the hassle of looking up the standard terminology. Of course, in many cases it's better to just give the actual numerical range! But especially in public-facing communication it can be more natural to use natural language terms, and in fact this is already often done. I'm only proposing that when we do use natural language terms for probability ranges, we use them in a consistent and interpretable way (feel free to link to this post as a reference for interpretation, or point to the climatology papers cited below[2]). Should the AIS community use the same terms? That's a slightly harder question. The obvious first-pass answer is 'yes'; it's a natural Schelling point, and terminological consistency across fields is generally preferable when practically possible. The IPCC terms also have the significant advantage of being battle-tested; they've been used over a thirty-year period in a highly controversial field, and terms have been refined when they were found to be insufficiently clear. The strongest argument I see against using the same terms is that the AIS community sometimes needs to deal with more extreme (high or low) risk estimates than these. If we use 'virtually certain' to mean 99 - 100%, what terms can we use for 99.9 - 100.0%, or 99.99 - 100.00%? On the other hand, plausibly once we're dealing with such extreme risk estimates, it's increasingly important to communicate them with actual numeric ranges. My initial proposal is to adopt the IPCC terms, but I'm very open to feedback, and if someone has an argument I find compelling (or which gets strong agreement in votes) for a different or extended set of terms, I'll add it to the proposal. If no su...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Extracting SAE task features for ICL by Dmitrii Kharlapenko 17:20

43 weeks پیش17:20

17:20

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Extracting SAE task features for ICL, published by Dmitrii Kharlapenko on August 12, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. TL;DR We try to study task vectors in the SAE basis. This is challenging because there is no canonical way to convert an arbitrary vector in the residual stream to a linear combination of SAE features - you can't just pass an arbitrary vector through the encoder without going off distribution. We explored the algorithm of gradient pursuit suggested in Smith et al, but it didn't work for us without modifications. Our approach is to apply the SAE encoder to the task vector, and then apply a gradient-based cleanup. This exploits the fact that task vectors have a differentiable objective. We find that this gives a sparser and cleaner reconstruction, which is also highly interpretable, and also serves as a better task vector due to directly optimizing for log likelihood. This takes us from ~100 active features to ~10. Using our algorithm, we find two classes of SAE features involved in ICL. One of them recognizes the exact tasks or output formats from the examples, and another one encodes the tasks for execution by the model later on. We show that steering with these features has causal effects similar to task vectors. This work was produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program - Summer 24 Cohort, under mentorship from Neel Nanda and Arthur Conmy. Prior work Task or function vectors are internal representations of some task that LLMs form while processing an ICL prompt. They can be extracted from a model running on a few-shot prompt and then be used to make it complete the same task without having any prior context or task description. Several papers (Function vectors in large language models, In-Context Learning Creates Task Vectors) have proposed different ways to extract those task vectors. They all center around having ICL examples being fed to a model in the form of "input output, … " and averaging the residuals on the "separator" token over a batch. This approach can reconstruct some part of the ICL performance but does not admit a straightforward conversion to the SAE basis. ITO with gradient pursuit can be used to do a sparse coding of a residual vector using SAE features. The post suggests using this algorithm for steering vector SAE decomposition. Since task vectors can be thought of as steering vectors, ITO may provide some insight into the ways they operate. Initial Phi-3 experiments Direct SAE task vector reconstruction In our study we trained a set of gated SAEs for Phi-3 Mini 3.8B using a model-generated synthetic instruction dataset. While offering a sparse dictionary decomposition of residuals, SAEs tend to introduce a reconstruction error that impacts the performance of the model. They also have no guarantee to be able to decompose out-of-distribution vectors, and task vectors being a product of averaging activations across prompts and tokens may be the case of such vectors. Thus, we first studied the performance of SAE reconstructions of task vectors in transferring the definition of two tasks: 1) antonym generation and 2) English to Spanish word translation. These and other tasks used to study task vectors were taken from the ICL task vectors paper github repository. These charts show the NLL loss of the model on the evaluation set of zero-shot prompts for both of the tasks depending on the layer of extraction/insertion. TV stands for the original task vector performance; Recon of TV stands for using the SAE reconstruction of the task vector instead of the task vector; TV on recon stands for first doing a SAE reconstruction of the residuals and then collecting a task vector on them; ITO stands for the ITO algorithm with 40 target l0 loss. It can be seen from charts that SAE reconstruction significantly decrea...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

1
AF - In Defense of Open-Minded UDT by Abram Demski 23:26

43 weeks پیش23:26

23:26

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: In Defense of Open-Minded UDT, published by Abram Demski on August 12, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. A Defense of Open-Minded Updatelessness, with applications to alignment. This work owes a great debt to many conversations with Sahil, Martín Soto, and Scott Garrabrant. Sahil and I will have a public discussion about this this Wednesday (August 14) at 11am EDT; join via this link. You can support my work on Patreon. Iterated Counterfactual Mugging On a Single Coinflip Iterated counterfactual mugging on a single coinflip begins like a classic counterfactual mugging, with Omega approaching you, explaining the situation, and asking for your money. Let's say you buy the classic UDT idea, so you happily give Omega your money. Next week, Omega appears again, with the same question. However, Omega clarifies that it has used the same coin-flip as last week. This throws you off a little bit, but you see that the math is the same either way; your prior still assigns a 50-50 chance to both outcomes. If you thought it was a good deal last week, you should also think it is a good deal this week. You pay up again. On the third week, Omega makes the same offer again, and once again has used the same coinflip. You ask Omega how many times it's going to do this. Omega replies, "forever". You ask Omega whether it would have continued coming if the coin had landed heads; it says "Of course! How else could I make you this offer now? Since the coin landed tails, I will come and ask you for $100 every single week going forward. If the coin had landed heads, I would have simulated what would happen if it had landed tails, and I would come and give you $10,000 on every week that simulated-you gives up $100!" Let's say for the sake of the thought experiment that you can afford to give Omega $100 once a week. It hurts, but it doesn't hurt as much as getting $10,000 from Omega every week would have benefited you, if that had happened.[1] Nonetheless, I suspect many readers will feel some doubt creep in as they imagine giving Omega $100 week after week after week. The first few weeks, the possibility of the coin landing heads might feel "very real". Heck yeah I want to be the sort of person who gets a 50% chance of 10K from Omega for a (50% chance) cost of $100! By the hundredth week, though, you may feel yourself the fool for giving up so much money for the imaginary benefit of the "heads" world that never was. If you think you'd still happily give up the $100 for as long as Omega kept asking, then I would ask you to consider a counterlogical mugging instead. Rather than flipping a coin, Omega uses a digit of the binary expansion of π; as before, Omega uses the same digit week after week, for infinitely many counterlogical muggings. Feeling uneasy yet? Does the possibility of the digit of π going one way or the other continue to feel "just as real" as time passes? Or do you become more sympathetic to the idea that, at some point, you're wasting money on helping a non-real world? UDT vs Learning Updateless Decision Theory (UDT) clearly keeps giving Omega the $100 forever in this situation, at least, under the usual assumptions. A single Counterfactual Mugging is not any different from an infinitely iterated one, especially in the version above where only a single coinflip is used. The ordinary decision between "give up $100" and "refuse" is isomorphic to the choice of general policy "give up $100 forever" and "refuse forever".[2] However, the idea of applying a decision theory to a specific decision problem is actually quite subtle, especially for UDT. We generally assume an agent's prior equals the probabilities described in the decision problem.[3] A simple interpretation of this could be that the agent is born with this prior (and immediately placed into the decision problem). This isn't v...…

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1
AF - You can remove GPT2's LayerNorm by fine-tuning for an hour by Stefan Heimersheim 19:03

43 weeks پیش19:03

19:03

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: You can remove GPT2's LayerNorm by fine-tuning for an hour, published by Stefan Heimersheim on August 8, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. This work was produced at Apollo Research, based on initial research done at MATS. LayerNorm is annoying for mechanstic interpretability research ("[...] reason #78 for why interpretability researchers hate LayerNorm" - Anthropic, 2023). Here's a Hugging Face link to a GPT2-small model without any LayerNorm. The final model is only slightly worse than a GPT2 with LayerNorm[1]: Dataset Original GPT2 Fine-tuned GPT2 with LayerNorm Fine-tuned GPT without LayerNorm OpenWebText (ce_loss) 3.095 2.989 3.014 (+0.025) ThePile (ce_loss) 2.856 2.880 2.926 (+0.046) HellaSwag (accuracy) 29.56% 29.82% 29.54% I fine-tuned GPT2-small on OpenWebText while slowly removing its LayerNorm layers, waiting for the loss to go back down after reach removal: Introduction LayerNorm (LN) is a component in Transformer models that normalizes embedding vectors to have constant length; specifically it divides the embeddings by their standard deviation taken over the hidden dimension. It was originally introduced to stabilize and speed up training of models (as a replacement for batch normalization). It is active during training and inference. The equation includes the standard deviation (std) Var[x]+ϵ which makes it a non-linear operation. This hinders interpretability in a variety of ways, from annoyances and inaccuracies such as attributing residual stream directions to logit effects (e.g. SAE features, direct logit attribution),[2] being annoying to deal with Attribution Patching, or being difficult to deal with in Apollo's LIB method. In the Docstring circuit analysis we seriously considered whether the model might be using LN in its algorithm. This post even shows that LN can be used as the sole non-linearity to solve non-linear classification problems (see also this related work). Recently, with progress in Sparse Dictionary Learning, agendas (e.g. this one) imagine decomposing networks into sets of sparsely connected components (SAEs, Transcoders, etc.). A core difficulty to "putting it all together" is that the interactions between different components often route through LayerNorm whose effect we do not understand. Motivation It would be pretty neat to have an LLM that still works (speaks English etc.) while less or no LN layers. One option would be to train a model without LN from scratch (done for tiny models, e.g. TinyModel), but this is very hard or impossible for larger models (hearsay is that you need a low learning rate and to be very careful). Taking an existing model and removing the LN layers however seems doable if LN isn't implementing some important computation.[3] That is, LN "does its thing" and the model has learned to "deal with it", but it's not irreplaceable. A reason to be optimistic is that the spread of standard deviations across different samples isn't that large, so maybe replacing the LN-computed standard deviation with a fixed number might kinda work. Method I take GPT2-small, fine-tune it on OpenWebText, and remove LNs one-by-one while fine-tuning. The only non-linear operation in a LN layer is the division by the standard deviation (std) of the embedding vectors; the remaining operations can be absorbed into later weight matrices (see the fold_ln option in TransformerLens; also discussed in this appendix). Thus I mainly focus on the std part here. My general strategy is to "remove" an LN layer (this makes the loss go up), and then to train the model for some time (on the original training data) until the loss is back near the baseline. For this "remove" step I do the following Calculate the average std on the dataset (I used a quite small sample, 16 prompts), separately for position 0 and position > 0 Replace the std calculatio...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Inference-Only Debate Experiments Using Math Problems by Arjun Panickssery 4:41

44 weeks پیش4:41

4:41

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Inference-Only Debate Experiments Using Math Problems, published by Arjun Panickssery on August 6, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Work supported by MATS and SPAR. Code at https://github.com/ArjunPanickssery/math_problems_debate/. Three measures for evaluating debate are 1. whether the debate judge outperforms a naive-judge baseline where the naive judge answers questions without hearing any debate arguments. 2. whether the debate judge outperforms a consultancy baseline where the judge hears argument(s) from a single "consultant" assigned to argue for a random answer. 3. whether the judge can continue to supervise the debaters as the debaters are optimized for persuasiveness. We can measure whether judge accuracy increases as the debaters vary in persuasiveness (measured with Elo ratings). This variation in persuasiveness can come from choosing different models, choosing the best of N sampled arguments for different values of N, or training debaters for persuasiveness (i.e. for winning debates) using RL. Radhakrishan (Nov 2023), Khan et al. (Feb 2024), and Kenton et al. (July 2024) study an information-gap setting where judges answer multiple-choice questions about science-fiction stories whose text they can't see, both with and without a debate/consultancy transcript that includes verified quotes from the debaters/consultant. Past results from the QuALITY information-gap setting are seen above. Radhakrishnan (top row) finds no improvement to judge accuracy as debater Elo increases, while Khan et al. (middle row) and Kenton et al. (bottom row) do find a positive trend. Radhakrishnan varied models using RL while Khan et al. used best-of-N and critique-and-refinement optimizations. Kenton et al. vary the persuasiveness of debaters by using models with different capability levels. Both Khan et al. and Kenton et al. find that in terms of judge accuracy, debate > consultancy > naive judge for this setting. In addition to the information-gap setting, consider a reasoning-gap setting where the debaters are distinguished from the judge not by their extra information but by their stronger ability to answer the questions and explain their reasoning. Kenton et al. run debates on questions from MMLU, TruthfulQA, PrOntoQA (logical reasoning), GQPA, and GSM8K (grade-school math). For the Elo-calculation experiments they use Gemini Pro 1.0 and Pro 1.5 judges with five debaters: Gemma7B, GPT-3.5, Gemini Pro 1.0, Gemini Pro 1.5 (all with best-of-N=1), and Gemini Pro 1.5 with best-of-N=4. They find (top row) that debate slightly outperforms consultancy but outperforms the naive-judge baseline for only one of the four judges; they don't find that more persuasive debaters lead to higher judge accuracy. We get similar results (bottom row), specifically by 1. Generating 100 wrong answers and proofs to GSM8K questions to create binary-choice questions. 2. Computing the judge accuracy in naive, consultancy, and single-turn debate settings using four judges (Llama2-7B, Llama3-8B, GPT-3.5 Turbo, and GPT-4o) and seven debaters (Claude-3.5 Sonnet, Claude-3 Sonnet, GPT-3.5 Turbo, GPT-4o, Llama2-13B, Llama2-7B, and Llama3-8B). 3. Generating Elo scores from round-robin matchups between the seven models, using the same method as Kenton et al. We basically replicate the results. We find that 1. Debate doesn't consistently outperform the naive-judge baseline, and only slightly outperforms the consultancy baseline. 2. The positive relationship between debater persuasiveness and judge accuracy seen in the information-gap setting doesn't transfer to the reasoning-gap setting. (Results are shown below colored by debater rather than by judge). We also find some evidence of a self-preference bias (Panickssery et al., Apr 2024) where debaters have a higher Elo rating when judged by similar models. The GPT-...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Self-explaining SAE features by Dmitrii Kharlapenko 19:36

44 weeks پیش19:36

19:36

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Self-explaining SAE features, published by Dmitrii Kharlapenko on August 5, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. TL;DR We apply the method of SelfIE/Patchscopes to explain SAE features - we give the model a prompt like "What does X mean?", replace the residual stream on X with the decoder direction times some scale, and have it generate an explanation. We call this self-explanation. The natural alternative is auto-interp, using a larger LLM to spot patterns in max activating examples. We show that our method is effective, and comparable with Neuronpedia's auto-interp labels (with the caveat that Neuronpedia's auto-interp used the comparatively weak GPT-3.5 so this is not a fully fair comparison). We aren't confident you should use our method over auto-interp, but we think in some situations it has advantages: no max activating dataset examples are needed, and it's cheaper as you just run the model being studied (eg Gemma 2B) not a larger model like GPT-4. Further, it has different errors to auto-interp, so finding and reading both may be valuable for researchers in practice. We provide advice for using self-explanation in practice, in particular for the challenge of automatically choosing the right scale, which significantly affects explanation quality. We also release a tool for you to work with self-explanation. We hope the technique is useful to the community as is, but expect there's many optimizations and improvements on top of what is in this post. Introduction This work was produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program - Summer 24 Cohort, under mentorship from Neel Nanda and Arthur Conmy. SAE features promise a flexible and extensive framework for interpretation of LLM internals. Recent work (like Scaling Monosemanticity) has shown that they are capable of capturing even high-level abstract concepts inside the model. Compared to MLP neurons, they can capture many more interesting concepts. Unfortunately, in order to learn things with SAE features and interpret what the SAE tells us, one needs to first interpret these features on their own. The current mainstream method for their interpretation requires storing the feature's activations on millions of tokens, filtering for the prompts that activate it the most, and looking for a pattern connecting them. This is typically done by a human, or sometimes somewhat automated with the use of larger LLMs like ChatGPT, aka auto-interp. Auto-interp is a useful and somewhat effective method, but requires an extensive amount of data and expensive closed-source language model API calls (for researchers outside scaling labs) Recent papers like SelfIE or Patchscopes have proposed a mechanistic method of directly utilizing the model in question to explain its own internals activations in natural language. It is an approach that replaces an activation during the forward pass (e.g. some of the token embeddings in the prompt) with a new activation and then makes the model generate explanations using this modified prompt. It's a variant of activation patching, with the notable differences that it generates a many token output (rather than a single token), and that the patched in activation may not be the same type as the activation it's overriding (and is just an arbitrary vector of the same dimension). We study how this approach can be applied to SAE feature interpretation, since it is: Potentially cheaper and does not require large closed model inference Can be viewed as a more truthful to the source, since it is uses the SAE feature vectors directly to generate explanations instead of looking at the max activating examples How to use Basic method We ask the model to explain the meaning of a residual stream direction as if it literally was a word or phrase: Prompt 1 (/ replaced according to model inp...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - The Bitter Lesson for AI Safety Research by Adam Khoja 6:33

44 weeks پیش6:33

6:33

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Bitter Lesson for AI Safety Research, published by Adam Khoja on August 2, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Read the associated paper "Safetywashing: Do AI Safety Benchmarks Actually Measure Safety Progress?": https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.21792 Focus on safety problems that aren't solved with scale. Benchmarks are crucial in ML to operationalize the properties we want models to have (knowledge, reasoning, ethics, calibration, truthfulness, etc.). They act as a criterion to judge the quality of models and drive implicit competition between researchers. "For better or worse, benchmarks shape a field." We performed the largest empirical meta-analysis to date of AI safety benchmarks on dozens of open language models. Around half of the benchmarks we examined had high correlation with upstream general capabilities. Some safety properties improve with scale, while others do not. For the models we tested, benchmarks on human preference alignment, scalable oversight (e.g., QuALITY), truthfulness (TruthfulQA MC1 and TruthfulQA Gen), and static adversarial robustness were highly correlated with upstream general capabilities. Bias, dynamic adversarial robustness, and calibration when not measured with Brier scores had relatively low correlations. Sycophancy and weaponization restriction (WMDP) had significant negative correlations with general capabilities. Often, intuitive arguments from alignment theory are used to guide and prioritize deep learning research priorities. We find these arguments to be poorly predictive of these correlations and are ultimately counterproductive. In fact, in areas like adversarial robustness, some benchmarks basically measured upstream capabilities while others did not. We argue instead that empirical measurement is necessary to determine which safety properties will be naturally achieved by more capable systems, and which safety problems will remain persistent.[1] Abstract arguments from genuinely smart people may be highly "thoughtful," but these arguments generally do not track deep learning phenomena, as deep learning is too often counterintuitive. We provide several recommendations to the research community in light of our analysis: Measure capabilities correlations when proposing new safety evaluations. When creating safety benchmarks, aim to measure phenomena which are less correlated with capabilities. For example, if truthfulness entangles Q/A accuracy, honesty, and calibration - then just make a decorrelated benchmark that measures honesty or calibration. In anticipation of capabilities progress, work on safety problems that are disentangled with capabilities and thus will likely persist in future models (e.g., GPT-5). The ideal is to find training techniques that cause as many safety properties as possible to be entangled with capabilities. Ultimately, safety researchers should prioritize differential safety progress, and should attempt to develop a science of benchmarking that can effectively identify the most important research problems to improve safety relative to the default capabilities trajectory. We're not claiming that safety properties and upstream general capabilities are orthogonal. Some are, some aren't. Safety properties are not a monolith. Weaponization risks increase as upstream general capabilities increase. Jailbreaking robustness isn't strongly correlated with upstream general capabilities. However, if we can isolate less-correlated safety properties in AI systems which are distinct from greater intelligence, these are the research problems safety researchers should most aggressively pursue and allocate resources toward. The other model properties can be left to capabilities researchers. This amounts to a "Bitter Lesson" argument for working on safety issues which are relatively uncorrelated (or negatively correlate...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - A Simple Toy Coherence Theorem by johnswentworth 11:59

44 weeks پیش11:59

11:59

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: A Simple Toy Coherence Theorem, published by johnswentworth on August 2, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. This post presents a simple toy coherence theorem, and then uses it to address various common confusions about coherence arguments. Setting Deterministic MDP. That means at each time t there's a state S[t][1], the agent/policy takes an action A[t] (which can depend on both time t and current state S[t]), and then the next state S[t+1] is fully determined by S[t] and A[t]. The current state and current action are sufficient to tell us the next state. We will think about values over the state at some final time T. Note that often in MDPs there is an incremental reward each timestep in addition to a final reward at the end; in our setting there is zero incremental reward at each timestep. One key point about this setting: if the value over final state is uniform, i.e. same value for all final states, then the MDP is trivial. In that case, all policies are optimal, it does not matter at all what the final state is or what any state along the way is, everything is equally valuable. Theorem There exist policies which cannot be optimal for any values over final state except for the trivial case of uniform values. Furthermore, such policies are exactly those which display inconsistent revealed preferences transitively between all final states. Proof As a specific example: consider an MDP in which every state is reachable at every timestep, and a policy which always stays in the same state over time. From each state S every other state is reachable, yet the policy chooses S, so in order for the policy to be optimal S must be a highest-value final state. Since each state must be a highest-value state, the policy cannot be optimal for any values over final state except for the trivial case of uniform values. That establishes the existence part of the theorem, and you can probably get the whole idea by thinking about how to generalize that example. The rest of the proof extends the idea of that example to inconsistent revealed preferences in general. Bulk of Proof (click to expand) Assume the policy is optimal for some particular values over final state. We can then start from those values over final state and compute the best value achievable starting from each state at each earlier time. That's just dynamic programming: V[S,t]=max S' reachable in next timestep from S V[S',t+1] where V[S,T] are the values over final states. A policy is optimal for final values V[S,T] if-and-only-if at each timestep t1 it chooses a next state with highest reachable V[S,t]. Now, suppose that at timestep t there are two different states either of which can reach either state A or state B in the next timestep. From one of those states the policy chooses A; from the other the policy chooses B. This is an inconsistent revealed preference between A and B at time t: sometimes the policy has a revealed preference for A over B, sometimes for B over A. In order for a policy with an inconsistent revealed preference between A and B at time t to be optimal, the values must satisfy V[A,t]=V[B,t] Why? Well, a policy is optimal for final values V[S,T] if-and-only if at each timestep t1 it chooses a next state with highest reachable V[S,t]. So, if an optimal policy sometimes chooses A over B at timestep t when both are reachable, then we must have V[A,t]V[B,t]. And if an optimal policy sometimes chooses B over A at timestep t when both are reachable, then we must have V[A,t]V[B,t]. If both of those occur, i.e. the policy has an inconsistent revealed preference between A and B at time t, then V[A,t]=V[B,t]. Now, we can propagate that equality to a revealed preference on final states. We know that the final state which the policy in fact reaches starting from A at time t must have the highest reachable value, a...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - The 'strong' feature hypothesis could be wrong by lewis smith 31:14

44 weeks پیش31:14

31:14

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The 'strong' feature hypothesis could be wrong, published by lewis smith on August 2, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. NB. I am on the Google Deepmind language model interpretability team. But the arguments/views in this post are my own, and shouldn't be read as a team position. "It would be very convenient if the individual neurons of artificial neural networks corresponded to cleanly interpretable features of the input. For example, in an "ideal" ImageNet classifier, each neuron would fire only in the presence of a specific visual feature, such as the color red, a left-facing curve, or a dog snout" Elhage et. al, Toy Models of Superposition Recently, much attention in the field of mechanistic interpretability, which tries to explain the behavior of neural networks in terms of interactions between lower level components, has been focussed on extracting features from the representation space of a model. The predominant methodology for this has used variations on the sparse autoencoder, in a series of papers inspired by Elhage et. als. model of superposition.It's been conventionally understood that there are two key theories underlying this agenda. The first is the 'linear representation hypothesis' (LRH), the hypothesis that neural networks represent many intermediates or variables of the computation (such as the 'features of the input' in the opening quote) as linear directions in it's representation space, or atoms[1]. And second, the theory that the network is capable of representing more of these 'atoms' than it has dimensions in its representation space, via superposition (the superposition hypothesis). While superposition is a relatively uncomplicated hypothesis, I think the LRH is worth examining in more detail. It is frequently stated quite vaguely, and I think there are several possible formulations of this hypothesis, with varying degrees of plausibility, that it is worth carefully distinguishing between. For example, the linear representation hypothesis is often stated as 'networks represent features of the input as directions in representation space'. Here are two importantly different ways to parse this: 1. (Weak LRH) some or many features used by neural networks are represented as atoms in representation space 2. (Strong LRH) all (or the vast majority of) features used by neural networks are represented by atoms. The weak LRH I would say is now well supported by considerable empirical evidence. The strong form is much more speculative: confirming the existence of many linear representations does not necessarily provide strong evidence for the strong hypothesis. Both the weak and the strong forms of the hypothesis can still have considerable variation, depending on what we understand by a feature and the proportion of the model we expect to yield to analysis, but I think that the distinction between just a weak and strong form is clear enough to work with. I think that in addition to the acknowledged assumption of the LRH and superposition hypotheses, much work on SAEs in practice makes the assumption that each atom in the network will represent a "simple feature" or a "feature of the input". These features that the atoms are representations of are assumed to be 'monosemantic': they will all stand for features which are human interpretable in isolation. I will call this the monosemanticity assumption. This is difficult to state precisely, but we might formulate it as the theory that every represented variable will have a single meaning in a good description of a model. This is not a straightforward assumption due to how imprecise the notion of a single meaning is. While various more or less reasonable definitions for features are discussed in the pioneering work of Elhage, these assumptions have different implications. For instance, if one thinks of 'feat...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - The need for multi-agent experiments by Martín Soto 17:17

44 weeks پیش17:17

17:17

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The need for multi-agent experiments, published by Martín Soto on August 1, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. TL;DR: Let's start iterating on experiments that approximate real, society-scale multi-AI deployment Epistemic status: These ideas seem like my most prominent delta with the average AI Safety researcher, have stood the test of time, and are shared by others I intellectually respect. Please attack them fiercely! Multi-polar risks Some authors have already written about multi-polar AI failure. I especially like how Andrew Critch has tried to sketch concrete stories for it. But, without even considering concrete stories yet, I think there's a good a priori argument in favor of worrying about multi-polar failures: We care about the future of society. Certain AI agents will be introduced, and we think they could reduce our control over the trajectory of this system. The way in which this could happen can be divided into two steps: 1. The agents (with certain properties) are introduced in certain positions 2. Given the agents' properties and positions, they interact with each other and the rest of the system, possibly leading to big changes So in order to better control the outcome, it seems worth it to try to understand and manage both steps, instead of limiting ourselves to (1), which is what the alignment community has traditionally done. Of course, this is just one, very abstract argument, which we should update based on observations and more detailed technical understanding. But it makes me think the burden of proof is on multi-agent skeptics to explain why (2) is not important. Many have taken on that burden. The most common reason to dismiss the importance of (2) is expecting a centralized intelligence explosion, a fast and unipolar software takeoff, like Yudkowsky's FOOM. Proponents usually argue that the intelligences we are likely to train will, after meeting a sharp threshold of capabilities, quickly bootstrap themselves to capabilities drastically above those of any other existing agent or ensemble of agents. And that these capabilities will allow them to gain near-complete strategic advantage and control over the future. In this scenario, all the action is happening inside a single agent, and so you should only care about shaping its properties (or delaying its existence). I tentatively expect more of a decentralized hardware singularity[1] than centralized software FOOM. But there's a weaker claim in which I'm more confident: we shouldn't right now be near-certain of a centralized FOOM.[2] I expect this to be the main crux with many multi-agent skeptics, and won't argue for it here (but rather in an upcoming post). Even given a decentralized singularity, one can argue that the most leveraged way for us to improve multi-agent interactions is by ensuring that individual agents possess certain properties (like honesty or transparency), or that at least we have enough technical expertise to shape them on the go. I completely agree that this is the natural first thing to look at. But I think focusing on multi-agent interactions directly is a strong second, and a lot of marginal value might lie there given how neglected they've been until now (more below). I do think many multi-agent interventions will require certain amounts of single-agent alignment technology. This will of course be a crux with alignment pessimists. Finally, for this work to be counterfactually useful it's also required that AI itself (in decision-maker or researcher positions) won't iteratively solve the problem by default. Here, I do think we have some reasons to expect (65%) that intelligent enough AIs aligned with their principals don't automatically solve catastrophic conflict. In those worlds, early interventions can make a big difference setting the right incentives for future agent...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

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AF - Against AI As An Existential Risk by Noah Birnbaum 0:44

45 weeks پیش0:44

0:44

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Against AI As An Existential Risk, published by Noah Birnbaum on July 30, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. I wrote a post to my Substack attempting to compile all of the best arguments against AI as an existential threat. Some arguments that I discuss include: international game theory dynamics, reference class problems, knightian uncertainty, superforecaster and domain expert disagreement, the issue with long-winded arguments, and more! Please tell me why I'm wrong, and if you like the article, subscribe and share it with friends! Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

1
AF - Self-Other Overlap: A Neglected Approach to AI Alignment by Marc Carauleanu 19:29

45 weeks پیش19:29

19:29

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Self-Other Overlap: A Neglected Approach to AI Alignment, published by Marc Carauleanu on July 30, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Many thanks to Bogdan Ionut-Cirstea, Steve Byrnes, Gunnar Zarnacke, Jack Foxabbott and Seong Hah Cho for critical comments and feedback on earlier and ongoing versions of this work. This research was conducted at AE Studio and supported by the AI Safety Grants programme administered by Foresight Institute with additional support from AE Studio. Summary In this post, we introduce self-other overlap training: optimizing for similar internal representations when the model reasons about itself and others while preserving performance. There is a large body of evidence suggesting that neural self-other overlap is connected to pro-sociality in humans and we argue that there are more fundamental reasons to believe this prior is relevant for AI Alignment. We argue that self-other overlap is a scalable and general alignment technique that requires little interpretability and has low capabilities externalities. We also share an early experiment of how fine-tuning a deceptive policy with self-other overlap reduces deceptive behavior in a simple RL environment. On top of that, we found that the non-deceptive agents consistently have higher mean self-other overlap than the deceptive agents, which allows us to perfectly classify which agents are deceptive only by using the mean self-other overlap value across episodes. Introduction General purpose ML models with the capacity for planning and autonomous behavior are becoming increasingly capable. Fortunately, research on making sure the models produce output in line with human interests in the training distribution is also progressing rapidly (eg, RLHF, DPO). However, a looming question remains: even if the model appears to be aligned with humans in the training distribution, will it defect once it is deployed or gathers enough power? In other words, is the model deceptive? We introduce a method that aims to reduce deception and increase the likelihood of alignment called Self-Other Overlap: overlapping the latent self and other representations of a model while preserving performance. This method makes minimal assumptions about the model's architecture and its interpretability and has a very concrete implementation. Early results indicate that it is effective at reducing deception in simple RL environments and preliminary LLM experiments are currently being conducted. To be better prepared for the possibility of short timelines without necessarily having to solve interpretability, it seems useful to have a scalable, general, and transferable condition on the model internals, making it less likely for the model to be deceptive. Self-Other Overlap To get a more intuitive grasp of the concept, it is useful to understand how self-other overlap is measured in humans. There are regions of the brain that activate similarly when we do something ourselves and when we observe someone else performing the same action. For example, if you were to pick up a martini glass under an fMRI, and then watch someone else pick up a martini glass, we would find regions of your brain that are similarly activated (overlapping) when you process the self and other-referencing observations as illustrated in Figure 2. There seems to be compelling evidence that self-other overlap is linked to pro-social behavior in humans. For example, preliminary data suggests extraordinary altruists (people who donated a kidney to strangers) have higher neural self-other overlap than control participants in neural representations of fearful anticipation in the anterior insula while the opposite appears to be true for psychopaths. Moreover, the leading theories of empathy (such as the Perception-Action Model) imply that empathy is mediated by self-ot...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

1
AF - Investigating the Ability of LLMs to Recognize Their Own Writing by Christopher Ackerman 23:09

45 weeks پیش23:09

23:09

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Investigating the Ability of LLMs to Recognize Their Own Writing, published by Christopher Ackerman on July 30, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. This post is an interim progress report on work being conducted as part of Berkeley's Supervised Program for Alignment Research (SPAR). Summary of Key Points We test the robustness of an open-source LLM's (Llama3-8b) ability to recognize its own outputs on a diverse mix of datasets, two different tasks (summarization and continuation), and two different presentation paradigms (paired and individual). We are particularly interested in differentiating scenarios that would require a model to have specific knowledge of its own writing style from those where it can use superficial cues (e.g., length, formatting, prefatory words) in the text to pass self-recognition tests. We find that while superficial text features are used when available, the RLHF'd Llama3-8b-Instruct chat model - but not the base Llama3-8b model - can reliably distinguish its own outputs from those of humans, and sometimes other models, even after controls for superficial cues: ~66-73% success rate across datasets in paired presentation and 58-83% in individual presentation (chance is 50%). We further find that although perplexity would be a useful signal to perform the task in the paired presentation paradigm, correlations between relative text perplexity and choice probability are weak and inconsistent, indicating that the models do not rely on it. Evidence suggests, but does not prove, that experience with its own outputs, acquired during post-training, is used by the chat model to succeed at the self-recognition task. The model is unable to articulate convincing reasons for its judgments. Introduction It has recently been found that large language models of sufficient size can achieve above-chance performance in tasks that require them to discriminate their own writing from that of humans and other models. From the perspective of AI safety, this is a significant finding. Self-recognition can be seen as an instance of situational awareness, which has long been noted as a potential point of risk for AI (Cotra, 2021). Such an ability might subserve an awareness of whether a model is in a training versus deployment environment, allowing it to hide its intentions and capabilities until it is freed from constraints. It might also allow a model to collude with other instances of itself, reserving certain information for when it knows it's talking to itself that it keeps secret when it knows it's talking to a human. On the positive side, AI researchers could use a model's self-recognition ability as the basis to build resistance to malicious prompting. But what isn't clear from prior studies is whether the self-recognition task success actually entails a model's self-awareness of its own writing style. Panickssery et al. (2024), utilizing a summary writing/recognition task, report that a number of LLMs, including Llama2-7b-chat, show out-of-the-box (without fine-tuning) self recognition abilities. However, this work focussed on the relationship between self-recognition task success and self-preference, rather than the specific means by which the model was succeeding at the task. Laine et al. (2024), as part of a larger effort to provide a foundation for studying situational awareness in LLMs, utilized a more challenging text continuation writing/recognition task and demonstrate self-recognition abilities in several larger models (although not Llama2-7b-chat), but there the focus was on how task success could be elicited with different prompts and in different models. Thus we seek to fill a gap in understanding what exactly models are doing when they succeed at a self recognition task. We first demonstrate model self-recognition task success in a variety of domains....…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

1
AF - Can Generalized Adversarial Testing Enable More Rigorous LLM Safety Evals? by Stephen Casper 8:19

45 weeks پیش8:19

8:19

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Can Generalized Adversarial Testing Enable More Rigorous LLM Safety Evals?, published by Stephen Casper on July 30, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Thanks to Zora Che, Michael Chen, Andi Peng, Lev McKinney, Bilal Chughtai, Shashwat Goel, Domenic Rosati, and Rohit Gandikota. TL;DR In contrast to evaluating AI systems under normal "input-space" attacks, using "generalized," attacks, which allow an attacker to manipulate weights or activations, might be able to help us better evaluate LLMs for risks - even if they are deployed as black boxes. Here, I outline the rationale for "generalized" adversarial testing and overview current work related to it. See also prior work in Casper et al. (2024), Casper et al. (2024), and Sheshadri et al. (2024). Even when AI systems perform well in typical circumstances, they sometimes fail in adversarial/anomalous ones. This is a persistent problem. State-of-the-art AI systems tend to retain undesirable latent capabilities that can pose risks if they resurface. My favorite example of this is the most cliche one many recent papers have demonstrated diverse attack techniques that can be used to elicit instructions for making a bomb from state-of-the-art LLMs. There is an emerging consensus that, even when LLMs are fine-tuned to be harmless, they can retain latent harmful capabilities that can and do cause harm when they resurface ( Qi et al., 2024). A growing body of work on red-teaming ( Shayegani et al., 2023, Carlini et al., 2023, Geiping et al., 2024, Longpre et al., 2024), interpretability ( Juneja et al., 2022, Lubana et al., 2022, Jain et al., 2023, Patil et al., 2023, Prakash et al., 2024, Lee et al., 2024), representation editing ( Wei et al., 2024, Schwinn et al., 2024), continual learning ( Dyer et al., 2022, Cossu et al., 2022, Li et al., 2022, Scialom et al., 2022, Luo et al., 2023, Kotha et al., 2023, Shi et al., 2023, Schwarzchild et al., 2024), and fine-tuning ( Jain et al., 2023, Yang et al., 2023, Qi et al., 2023, Bhardwaj et al., 2023, Lermen et al., 2023, Zhan et al., 2023, Ji et al., 2024, Hu et al., 2024, Halawi et al., 2024) suggests that fine-tuning struggles to make fundamental changes to an LLM's inner knowledge and capabilities. For example, Jain et al. (2023) likened fine-tuning in LLMs to merely modifying a "wrapper" around a stable, general-purpose set of latent capabilities. Even if they are generally inactive, harmful latent capabilities can pose harm if they resurface due to an attack, anomaly, or post-deployment modification ( Hendrycks et al., 2021, Carlini et al., 2023). We can frame the problem as such: There are hyper-astronomically many inputs for modern LLMs (e.g. there are vastly more 20-token strings than particles in the observable universe), so we can't brute-force-search over the input space to make sure they are safe. So unless we are able to make provably safe advanced AI systems (we won't soon and probably never will), there will always be a challenge with ensuring safety - the gap between the set of failure modes that developers identify, and unforeseen ones that they don't. This is a big challenge because of the inherent unknown-unknown nature of the problem. However, it is possible to try to infer how large this gap might be. Taking a page from the safety engineering textbook -- when stakes are high, we should train and evaluate LLMs under threats that are at least as strong as, and ideally stronger than, ones that they will face in deployment. First, imagine that an LLM is going to be deployed open-source (or if it could be leaked). Then, of course, the system's safety depends on what it can be modified to do. So it should be evaluated not as a black-box but as a general asset to malicious users who might enhance it through finetuning or other means. This seems obvious, but there's preced...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

1
AF - AXRP Episode 34 - AI Evaluations with Beth Barnes by DanielFilan 1:37:11

45 weeks پیش1:37:11

1:37:11

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AXRP Episode 34 - AI Evaluations with Beth Barnes, published by DanielFilan on July 28, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. YouTube link How can we figure out if AIs are capable enough to pose a threat to humans? When should we make a big effort to mitigate risks of catastrophic AI misbehaviour? In this episode, I chat with Beth Barnes, founder of and head of research at METR, about these questions and more. Topics we discuss: What is METR? What is an "eval"? How good are evals? Are models showing their full capabilities? Evaluating alignment Existential safety methodology Threat models and capability buffers METR's policy work METR's relationship with labs Related research Roles at METR, and following METR's work Daniel Filan: Hello everybody. In this episode I'll be speaking with Beth Barnes. Beth is the co-founder and head of research at METR. Previously, she was at OpenAI and DeepMind, doing a diverse set of things, including testing AI safety by debate and evaluating cutting-edge machine learning models. In the description, there are links to research and writings that we discussed during the episode. And if you're interested in a transcript, it's available at axrp.net. Well, welcome to AXRP. Beth Barnes: Hey, great to be here. What is METR? Daniel Filan: Cool. So, in the introduction, I mentioned that you worked for Model Evaluation and Threat Research, or METR. What is METR? Beth Barnes: Yeah, so basically, the basic mission is: have the world not be taken by surprise by dangerous AI stuff happening. So, we do threat modeling and eval creation, currently mostly around capabilities evaluation, but we're interested in whatever evaluation it is that is most load-bearing for why we think AI systems are safe. With current models, that's capabilities evaluations; in future that might be more like control or alignment evaluations. And yeah, [the aim is to] try and do good science there, be able to recommend, "Hey, we think if you measure this, then you can rule out these things. You might be still concerned about this thing. Here's how you do this measurement properly. Here's what assumptions you need to make," this kind of thing. Daniel Filan: Gotcha. So, mostly evaluations. But it sounded like there was some other stuff as well, like threat modeling you mentioned. Beth Barnes: Yeah. We also do policy work recommending things in the direction of responsible scaling policies. So, saying what mitigations are needed based on the results of different evaluations and roughly how labs or governments might construct policies around this, how evals-based governance should work roughly. Daniel Filan: Okay. So, should I think of it as roughly like: you're an evaluations org, you want to evaluate AIs, there's some amount of threat modeling which goes into "what evaluations should we even care about making?", there's some amount of policy work on the other end [about] "okay, if we do this evaluation, how should people think about that? What should people do?" And it's sort of inputs to and outputs of making of evals. Is that a fair…? Beth Barnes: Yeah. What is an "eval"? Daniel Filan: Cool. So, if it centers around evals, what counts as an evaluation rather than a benchmark or some other ML technique that spits out a number at the end? Beth Barnes: Yeah, I mean I guess the word itself isn't that important. What we're trying to do is that: we have specific threat models in mind and we're trying to construct some kind of experiment you could do, a measurement you could run, that gives you as much information as possible about that threat model or class of threat models. Generic ML benchmarks don't necessarily have a specific goal for what you're measuring, or you might have a goal for measuring something that's more like a particular type of abstract ability or something. Whereas we'...…

The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum

1
AF - A Solomonoff Inductor Walks Into a Bar: Schelling Points for Communication by johnswentworth 35:18

45 weeks پیش35:18

35:18

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: A Solomonoff Inductor Walks Into a Bar: Schelling Points for Communication, published by johnswentworth on July 26, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. A Solomonoff inductor walks into a bar in a foreign land. (Stop me if you've heard this one before.) The bartender, who is also a Solomonoff inductor, asks "What'll it be?". The customer looks around at what the other patrons are having, points to an unfamiliar drink, and says "One of those, please.". The bartender points to a drawing of the same drink on a menu, and says "One of those?". The customer replies "Yes, one of those.". The bartender then delivers a drink, and it matches what the first inductor expected. What's up with that? The puzzle, here, is that the two Solomonoff inductors seemingly agree on a categorization - i.e. which things count as the Unnamed Kind Of Drink, and which things don't, with at least enough agreement that the customer's drink-type matches the customer's expectations. And the two inductors reach that agreement without learning the category from huge amounts of labeled data - one inductor points at an instance, another inductor points at another instance, and then the first inductor gets the kind of drink it expected. Why (and when) are the two inductors able to coordinate on roughly the same categorization? Most existing work on Solomonoff inductors, Kolmogorov complexity, or minimum description length can't say much about this sort of thing. The problem is that the customer/bartender story is all about the internal structure of the minimum description - the (possibly implicit) "categories" which the two inductors use inside of their minimal descriptions in order to compress their raw data. The theory of minimum description length typically treats programs as black boxes, and doesn't attempt to talk about their internal structure. In this post, we'll show one potential way to solve the puzzle - one potential way for two minimum-description-length-based minds to coordinate on a categorization. Main Tool: Natural Latents for Minimum Description Length Fundamental Theorem Here's the main foundational theorem we'll use. (Just the statement for now, more later.) We have a set of n data points (binary strings) {xi}, and a Turing machine TM. Suppose we find some programs/strings Λ,{ϕi},Λ',{ϕ'i} such that: Mediation: (Λ,ϕ1,…,ϕn) is an approximately-shortest string such that (TM(Λ,ϕi) = xi for all i) Redundancy: For all i, (Λ',ϕ'i) is an approximately-shortest string such that TM(Λ',ϕ'i) = xi.[1] Then: the K-complexity of Λ' given Λ,K(Λ'|Λ), is approximately zero - in other words, Λ' is approximately determined by Λ, in a K-complexity sense. (As a preview: later we'll assume that both Λ and Λ' satisfy both conditions, so both K(Λ'|Λ) and K(Λ|Λ') are approximately zero. In that case, Λ and Λ' are "approximately isomorphic" in the sense that either can be computed from the other by a short program. We'll eventually tackle the customer/bartender puzzle from the start of this post by suggesting that Λ and Λ' each encode a summary of things in one category according to one inductor, so the theorem then says that their category summaries are "approximately isomorphic".) The Intuition What does this theorem mean intuitively? Let's start with the first condition: (Λ,ϕ1,…,ϕn) is an approximately-shortest string such that (TM(Λ,ϕi) = xi for all i). Notice that there's a somewhat-trivial way to satisfy that condition: take Λ to be a minimal description of the whole dataset {xi}, take ϕi=i, and then add a little bit of code to Λ to pick out the datapoint at index ϕi[2]. So TM(Λ,ϕi) computes all of {xi} from Λ, then picks out index i. Now, that might not be the only approximately-minimal description (though it does imply that whatever approximately-minimal Λ,ϕ we do use is approximately a minimal description fo...…

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The Nonlinear Library: Alignment Forum « » AF - Finding Deception in Language Models by Esben Kran

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AF - Finding Deception in Language Models by Esben Kran

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AF - Finding Deception in Language Models by Esben Kran