2021.12.10 國際新聞導讀-烏克蘭俄羅斯危機未解、美伊核武談判無進展美國動念武力解決、紐西蘭永久禁止14歲以下人購買煙品企圖斬斷吸煙人口之增加、巴基斯坦塔利班TTP與巴基斯坦政府之停火中止可能再度開戰

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.10 國際新聞導讀-烏克蘭俄羅斯危機未解、美伊核武談判無進展美國動念武力解決、紐西蘭永久禁止14歲以下人購買煙品企圖斬斷吸煙人口之增加、巴基斯坦塔利班TTP與巴基斯坦政府之停火中止可能再度開戰
俄羅斯稱烏克蘭可能重新陷入古巴導彈危機
烏克蘭表示，它擔心聚集在其邊界附近的數万名俄羅斯軍隊會入侵，而莫斯科則表示其姿態純粹是防禦性的。
俄羅斯週四表示，烏克蘭緊張局勢升級可能導致古巴導彈危機重演，當時世界正處於核戰爭的邊緣。
外交部副部長謝爾蓋里亞布科夫在被記者問及當前局勢是否會演變成類似於1962年美蘇冷戰僵局時作出上述評論。
國際文傳電訊社援引他的話說：“你知道，它真的可以做到這一點。” “如果事情就這樣繼續下去，按照事件的邏輯，完全有可能突然醒來，看到自己處於類似的境地。”
古巴危機是由蘇聯在加勒比島上部署核導彈引發的，並促使美國實施海上封鎖以阻止莫斯科的更多船隻進入。
莫斯科對尋求加入北約的烏克蘭表示擔心，該聯盟將在那裡部署導彈並將其瞄準俄羅斯。北約說它是一個防禦性聯盟，這種擔憂是沒有根據的。
這張照片拍攝於 1962 年 10 月 23 日（圖片來源：REUTERS/CECIL STOUGHTON/THE）白宮/約翰·肯尼迪總統圖書館）
烏克蘭表示，它擔心聚集在其邊界附近的數万名俄羅斯軍隊會入侵，而莫斯科則表示其姿態純粹是防禦性的。
週二，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾普京和美國總統喬拜登在兩小時的視頻通話中討論了這場危機，拜登表示他計劃組織俄羅斯和北約國家之間的會議，討論莫斯科的擔憂以及“降低局勢升溫的方法”。東線。”
古巴導彈危機在蘇聯領導人尼基塔·赫魯曉夫同意拆除和移除核武器以換取美國總統約翰·肯尼迪承諾不重新入侵這個共產主義島嶼時得到化解。
華盛頓還秘密同意從土耳其撤出其核導彈，這是該協議的一部分，直到幾十年後才公佈。
Russia says Ukraine could turn into re-run of Cuban missile crisis
Ukraine says it fears an invasion by tens of thousands of Russian troops gathered near its borders, while Moscow says its posture is purely defensive.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 16:39
Updated: DECEMBER 9, 2021 17:45
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds talks with U.S. President Joe Biden via a video link in Sochi, Russia December 7, 2021.
(photo credit: SPUTNIK/SERGEI GUNEEV/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS)
Russia said on Thursday that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made the comment when asked by a reporter if the current situation could turn into something resembling the 1962 Cold War standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union.
"You know, it really could come to that," Interfax news agency quoted him as saying. "If things continue as they are, it is entirely possible by the logic of events to suddenly wake up and see yourself in something similar."
The Cuban crisis was triggered by the stationing of Soviet nuclear missiles on the Caribbean island and prompted the United States to impose a naval blockade to prevent Moscow shipping in more.
Moscow's stated fear in Ukraine, which seeks to join NATO, is that the alliance will deploy missiles there and target them against Russia. NATO says it is a defensive alliance and such concerns are unwarranted.
Ukraine says it fears an invasion by tens of thousands of Russian troops gathered near its borders, while Moscow says its posture is purely defensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden discussed the crisis in a two-hour video call on Tuesday and Biden has said he plans to organize a meeting between Russia and NATO countries to discuss Moscow's concerns and ways of "bringing down the temperature on the eastern front."
The Cuban missile crisis was defused when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to dismantle and remove the nuclear weapons in return for a pledge by US President John F. Kennedy not to reinvade the Communist island.
Washington also secretly agreed to remove its nuclear missiles from Turkey, in a part of the deal that was not revealed until decades later.
美國威脅考慮打擊伊朗是真的嗎？- 分析
報導稱，美以準備工作凸顯了西方對核談判可能陷入死胡同的擔憂。
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 20:15
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 20:51
路透社20日8月20日收到的這張照片中，伊朗公開的導彈在伊朗不明地點發射
（圖片來源：WANA（西亞新聞社）VIA REUTERS）
廣告
停止壓力機。
在拒絕對伊朗施加任何實際壓力近一年之後，美國在周三首次洩露了真正的軍事威脅。
還是做到了？
乍一看，威脅似乎是真實的。
一名美國高級官員向路透社透露，預計美國和以色列國防部長周四將討論可能的軍事演習，為如果外交失敗而摧毀伊朗核設施的最壞情況做準備。
五角大樓領導人於 10 月 25 日向白宮國家安全顧問傑克·沙利文通報了確保伊朗無法生產核武器的全套軍事選擇後，美國與來訪的國防部長本尼·甘茨進行了預定會談。官員說。
2021 年 12 月 6 日，伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西在伊朗德黑蘭會見了阿聯酋最高國家安全顧問謝赫·塔努恩·本·扎耶德·阿勒納哈揚。（圖片來源：MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA（西亞新聞社）VIA REUTERS）
報導稱，美以準備工作凸顯了西方對核談判可能陷入死胡同的擔憂。
但是，這種威脅似乎很快就變成了虛張聲勢的虛張聲勢。
這位美國官員拒絕提供有關潛在軍事演習的細節。
在以色列，KAN 新聞報導說，這個猶太國家將進行與路透社文章似乎描述的相符的軍事演習——但只會在六個月內進行。
這不是伊斯蘭共和國認真對待威脅的遊戲計劃。
2013 年和 2015 年多次，包括在 JCPOA 核協議簽署前兩週，美國對其威脅非常具體。
洩露給媒體的消息表明，華盛頓正在研製一種新的、威力更大的地堡破壞炸彈。
這很重要，因為伊朗的福爾多設施位於地下深處，無法被標準導彈摧毀。
地堡破壞者的更新版本將包括延遲引信，升級炸彈的製導系統和電子設備，以阻止干擾器將其發射出去。並註意到將投下兩枚炸彈。
這些洩漏給出了掩體破壞者測試的確切日期和地點，以確保它們完全運行並能夠完成清除任何伊朗核設施的任務，無論地下有多深。
此外，如果美國的演習還有六個月的時間，正如從 KAN 的故事中可以推斷出的那樣，對於耐心的伊朗人來說，這是一個非常微弱的威脅和遙遠的最後期限。
再加上在這一“威脅”被洩露的同一周，中央情報局局長威廉伯恩斯接受采訪時表示，中央情報局不相信伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊已決定採取措施將核裝置武器化，儘管它在濃縮鈾能力方面的所有進步。
為了讓伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的核威脅看起來更加遙遠，他警告說，即使伊朗決定繼續前進，在將核武器安裝到導彈上之前，仍需要大量工作才能將裂變材料武器化。
此外，他說，“他們在掌握核燃料循環方面走得更遠，這種知識很難被制裁或消失。”
因此，中央情報局局長，通常是外交界持槍的“壞警察”，正在淡化德黑蘭可能構成的威脅以及任何軍事行動“讓它消失”的能力。
人們可以暫時忽略伯恩斯是中央情報局局長，但仍然不是美國頂級外交官，這是他職業生涯的大部分時間。
不完全是一個統一的威懾信息。
此外，即使以更具體的方式發出威脅，如果演習發生得更早，如果拜登政府的所有官員都一致採取強硬措施，華盛頓現在也嚴重缺乏“街頭可信度”。
從阿富汗到烏克蘭再到其他衝突，拜登政府傳達的信息並不是用軍事和外交力量的平衡取代特朗普的好戰態度，而是幾乎完全放棄軍事力量，轉向外交。
如果這沒有達到目的，它只是用高尚的形容詞來譴責無視其超級大國地位的流氓行為——參見歐洲通常的劇本。
拜登政府可能需要讓伊朗特工在某個地方流血，即使是在第三國以小規模和有針對性的方式，以便其更廣泛的威脅得到認真對待。
相反，美國軍事威脅的真正目的或最可能的結果將是為核談判設定一個虛假的最後期限，而沒有設定一個正式的期限。
這對於確定秘密行動的時間很重要，或者這樣華盛頓就不需要在以後打破正式的最後期限，屆時拜登無意公開攻擊伊朗的意圖可能會變得明顯。
有一件事是肯定的：如果伊朗在不久的將來緩和其重返JCPOA 的立場，那將是因為以色列的威脅（官員說，即使現在已經在某種程度上準備好了），而不是美國的威脅。
Is US threat to consider striking Iran for real? - analysis
According to the report, the US-Israeli preparations underscore Western concern about the nuclear talks potentially reaching a dead end.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 20:15
Updated: DECEMBER 9, 2021 20:51
Stop the presses.
After almost a year of declining to put any real pressure on Iran, the US leaked a real military threat on Wednesday for the first time.
Or did it?
At first glance, the threat appears genuine.
A senior US official leaked to Reuters that US and Israeli defense chiefs were expected on Thursday to discuss possible military exercises that would prepare for a worst-case scenario to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities should diplomacy fail.
The scheduled US talks with visiting Defense Minister Benny Gantz follow an October 25 briefing by Pentagon leaders to White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the full set of military options available to ensure that Iran would not be able to produce a nuclear weapon, the anonymous official said.
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi meets with UAE's top national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Tehran, Iran, December 6, 2021. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
According to the report, the US-Israeli preparations underscore Western concern about the nuclear talks potentially reaching a dead end.
But the threat then pretty quickly seemed to peter out into an empty bluff.
The US official declined to offer details on the potential military exercises.
In Israel, KAN news reported that the Jewish state will be undertaking military exercises matching what the Reuters article seemed to describe – but only in six months.
This is not the game plan for a threat to be taken seriously by the Islamic Republic.
In 2013 and repeatedly in 2015, including only two weeks before the JCPOA nuclear deal was signed, the US got very specific about its threat.
Leaks to the media indicated that Washington was developing a new, more powerful bunker-buster bomb.
This was important because Iran’s Fordow facility is deep underground and cannot be destroyed by standard missiles.
More updated versions of the bunker-buster would include a delayed fuse, upgrades to the bomb’s guidance system and electronics to stop jammers from sending it off course. And it was noted that two bombs would be dropped for good measure.
These leaks gave exact dates and locations for when the bunker busters had been tested to make sure they were fully operational and up to the task of wiping out any Iranian nuclear facilities, no matter how deep underground.
Also, if the US exercises are six months away, as could be inferred from the KAN story, it is a pretty weak threat and distant deadline for the patient Iranians.
Add into the picture that in the same week this “threat” was leaked, CIA Director William Burns gave an interview in which he said the CIA does not believe Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to take steps to weaponize a nuclear device, despite all of its advances in its ability to enrich uranium.
To make the Islamic Republic’s nuclear threat seem even more distant, he cautioned that even if Iran decided to go ahead, it would still require a lot of work to weaponize that fissile material before attaching a nuclear weapon to a missile.
In addition, he said, “They’re further along in their mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle and that’s the kind of knowledge that is very difficult to sanction away or make disappear.”
So the CIA director, usually the gun-slinging “bad cop” in the diplomacy world, is downplaying both the threat Tehran could pose and the ability of any military operation to “make it disappear.”
One could ignore for a moment that Burns is director of the CIA and still not a top US diplomat, a job in which he spent most of his career.
Not exactly a unified message of deterrence.
Moreover, even if the threat was being delivered with more specifics, if the drill was happening sooner and if all Biden administration officials were acting tough in unison, Washington right now is massively lacking in “street credibility.”
From Afghanistan to Ukraine to other conflicts, the Biden administration’s message has not been to replace Trump’s militant attitude with a balance of military and diplomatic power, but to almost completely drop military power in favor of diplomacy.
If that does not achieve its goals, it has just used high-minded adjectives to condemn the behavior of rogue actors ignoring its superpower status – see Europe’s usual script.
The Biden administration would probably need to give Iranian operatives a bloody nose somewhere, even in a small and targeted way in a third country, in order for its broader threat to be taken seriously.
Rather, the real purpose or most likely outcome of the US military threat will be to set a sort of fake deadline for nuclear negotiations without setting a formal one.
This could be important to set timing for covert action or so that Washington will not need to break a formal deadline later, when it might become clear that Biden has no intention of attacking Iran overtly.
One thing is sure: If Iran moderates its positions to return to the JCPOA in the near future, it will be because of the Israeli threat (which officials say is ready on some level even now), not the American one.
由於外交口吃，美國，以色列討論針對伊朗的軍事演習
美國和以色列的準備突顯了西方對與伊朗進行艱難核談判的擔憂。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 03:02
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 10:55
2015 年在華盛頓國會山上反對伊朗核協議。
（照片來源：喬納森·恩斯特/路透社）
廣告
一位美國高級官員告訴路透社，預計美國和以色列國防部長周四將討論可能的軍事演習，這些演習將為最壞的情況做準備，如果外交失敗並且如果兩國領導人提出要求，將摧毀伊朗的核設施。
五角大樓領導人於 10 月 25 日向白宮國家安全顧問傑克·沙利文通報了確保伊朗無法生產核武器的全套軍事選擇，之後美國與來訪的以色列國防部長本尼·甘茨進行了預定會談，這位不願透露姓名的官員周三表示。伊朗否認尋求核武器，稱其希望為和平目的掌握核技術。
此前未曾報導過的美國和以色列的準備工作突顯了西方對與伊朗進行艱難核談判的擔憂，喬拜登總統曾希望這將恢復其前任唐納德特朗普放棄的 2015 年核協議。
但美國和歐洲官員在上週就伊朗強硬新​​政府的全面要求進行會談後表達了失望，這加劇了西方的懷疑，即伊朗在推進其核計劃的同時是在拖延時間。
這位美國官員拒絕提供有關潛在軍事演習的細節。
這位官員說：“我們陷入困境，因為伊朗的核計劃正在發展到沒有任何常規理由的地步，”同時仍表示希望進行討論。
主持會談的歐盟官員表示，會談將於週四恢復，美國伊朗問題特使計劃在周末加入會談。
國際原子能機構（IAEA）上週表示，伊朗已開始在其福爾多工廠使用 166 台先進 IR-6 機器的級聯或集群將鈾濃縮至純度高達 20% ，使攻擊更難。
2015 年的協議解除了對伊朗的製裁，但對其鈾濃縮活動施加了嚴格限制，將其生產足夠用於核武器的裂變材料所需的時間從大約兩到三個月延長至至少一年。大多數核專家表示，這個時期現在要短得多。
強調該協議受到的侵蝕有多麼嚴重，該協議根本不允許伊朗在福爾多進行鈾濃縮，更不用說使用先進的離心機了。
妥協
由於該交易的核利益現已嚴重受損，一些西方官員表示，該交易的基礎已經無法修復，幾乎沒有時間了。
美國和以色列的此類演習可能會回應美國前高級官員和中東問題專家丹尼斯·羅斯 (Dennis Ross) 等人的呼籲，即公開向德黑蘭發出信號，即美國和以色列仍認真防止其獲得核武器。
羅斯上個月寫道：“拜登需要消除伊朗關於華盛頓不會採取軍事行動並將阻止以色列這樣做的看法。”
羅斯甚至建議美國或許應該向以色列軍方發出信號，表示願意向以色列軍方提供一枚 30,000 磅重的可破壞掩體的大型穿甲彈。
當被問及有關威懾的此類言論時，這位美國高級官員說：“當拜登總統說伊朗永遠不會擁有核武器時，我的意思是，他是認真的。”
中央情報局局長比爾伯恩斯週一表示，中央情報局不相信伊朗最高領導人已決定採取措施將核裝置武器化，但注意到其濃縮鈾能力的進步，這是製造炸彈的裂變材料的一種途徑。
伯恩斯警告說，即使伊朗決定繼續，在將核武器連接到導彈或其他運載系統之前，仍需要大量工作才能將裂變材料武器化。
“但他們在掌握核燃料循環方面走得更遠，這種知識也很難被制裁或消失，”他說。
長期以來，美國官員也一直擔心一旦生產出足夠的可裂變材料製造炸彈，美國是否有能力探測和摧毀伊朗核武器化計劃的分散部件。
由於外交口吃，美國，以色列討論針對伊朗的軍事演習
美國和以色列的準備突顯了西方對與伊朗進行艱難核談判的擔憂。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 03:02
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 10:55
一位美國高級官員告訴路透社，預計美國和以色列國防部長周四將討論可能的軍事演習，這些演習將為最壞的情況做準備，如果外交失敗並且如果兩國領導人提出要求，將摧毀伊朗的核設施。
五角大樓領導人於 10 月 25 日向白宮國家安全顧問傑克·沙利文通報了確保伊朗無法生產核武器的全套軍事選擇，之後美國與來訪的以色列國防部長本尼·甘茨進行了預定會談，這位不願透露姓名的官員周三表示。伊朗否認尋求核武器，稱其希望為和平目的掌握核技術。
此前未曾報導過的美國和以色列的準備工作突顯了西方對與伊朗進行艱難核談判的擔憂，喬拜登總統曾希望這將恢復其前任唐納德特朗普放棄的 2015 年核協議。
但美國和歐洲官員在上週就伊朗強硬新​​政府的全面要求進行會談後表達了失望，這加劇了西方的懷疑，即伊朗在推進其核計劃的同時是在拖延時間。
這位美國官員拒絕提供有關潛在軍事演習的細節。
這位官員說：“我們陷入困境，因為伊朗的核計劃正在發展到沒有任何常規理由的地步，”同時仍表示希望進行討論。
主持會談的歐盟官員表示，會談將於週四恢復，美國伊朗問題特使計劃在周末加入會談。
國際原子能機構（IAEA）上週表示，伊朗已開始在其福爾多工廠使用 166 台先進 IR-6 機器的級聯或集群將鈾濃縮至純度高達 20% ，使攻擊更難。
2015 年的協議解除了對伊朗的製裁，但對其鈾濃縮活動施加了嚴格限制，將其生產足夠用於核武器的裂變材料所需的時間從大約兩到三個月延長至至少一年。大多數核專家表示，這個時期現在要短得多。
強調該協議受到的侵蝕有多麼嚴重，該協議根本不允許伊朗在福爾多進行鈾濃縮，更不用說使用先進的離心機了。
妥協
由於該交易的核利益現已嚴重受損，一些西方官員表示，該交易的基礎已經無法修復，幾乎沒有時間了。
美國和以色列的此類演習可能會回應美國前高級官員和中東問題專家丹尼斯·羅斯 (Dennis Ross) 等人的呼籲，即公開向德黑蘭發出信號，即美國和以色列仍認真防止其獲得核武器。
羅斯上個月寫道：“拜登需要消除伊朗關於華盛頓不會採取軍事行動並將阻止以色列這樣做的看法。”
羅斯甚至建議美國或許應該向以色列軍方發出信號，表示願意向以色列軍方提供一枚 30,000 磅重的可破壞掩體的大型穿甲彈。
當被問及有關威懾的此類言論時，這位美國高級官員說：“當拜登總統說伊朗永遠不會擁有核武器時，我的意思是，他是認真的。”
中央情報局局長比爾伯恩斯週一表示，中央情報局不相信伊朗最高領導人已決定採取措施將核裝置武器化，但注意到其濃縮鈾能力的進步，這是製造炸彈的裂變材料的一種途徑。
伯恩斯警告說，即使伊朗決定繼續，在將核武器連接到導彈或其他運載系統之前，仍需要大量工作才能將裂變材料武器化。
“但他們在掌握核燃料循環方面走得更遠，這種知識也很難被制裁或消失，”他說。
長期以來，美國官員也一直擔心一旦生產出足夠的可裂變材料製造炸彈，美國是否有能力探測和摧毀伊朗核武器化計劃的分散部件。
As diplomacy stutters, US, Israel to discuss military drills for Iran scenario
US-Israeli preparations underscore Western concern about difficult nuclear talks with Iran.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 03:02
Updated: DECEMBER 9, 2021 10:55
RALLYING AGAINST the Iran nuclear deal on Capitol Hill in Washington, 2015.
(photo credit: JONATHAN ERNST / REUTERS)
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US and Israeli defense chiefs are expected on Thursday to discuss possible military exercises that would prepare for a worst-case scenario to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities should diplomacy fail and if their nations' leaders request it, a senior US official told Reuters.
The scheduled US talks with visiting Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz follow an Oct. 25 briefing by Pentagon leaders to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the full set of military options available to ensure that Iran would not be able to produce a nuclear weapon, the official said on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, saying it wants to master nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
The US-Israeli preparations, which have not been previously reported, underscore Western concern about difficult nuclear talks with Iran that President Joe Biden had hoped would revive a 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by his predecessor Donald Trump.
But US and European officials have voiced dismay after talks last week at sweeping demands by Iran's new, hardline government, heightening suspicions in the West that Iran is playing for time while advancing its nuclear program.
The U.S. official declined to offer details on the potential military exercises.
"We're in this pickle because Iran's nuclear program is advancing to a point beyond which it has any conventional rationale," the official said, while still voicing hope for discussions.
The European Union official chairing the talks has said they will resume on Thursday, and the U.S. special envoy for Iran plans to join them over the weekend.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that Iran had started the process of enriching uranium to up to 20% purity with one cascade, or cluster, of 166 advanced IR-6 machines at its Fordow plant, which dug into a mountain, making harder to attack.
The 2015 agreement gave Iran sanctions relief but imposed strict limits on its uranium enrichment activities, extending the time it would need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, if it chose to, to at least a year from around two to three months. Most nuclear experts say that period is now considerably shorter.
Underlining how badly eroded the deal is, that pact does not allow Iran to enrich uranium at Fordow at all, let alone with advanced centrifuges.
COMPROMISED
With the deal's nuclear benefits now badly compromised, some Western officials say there is little time left before the foundation of the deal is damaged beyond repair.
Such drills by the United States and Israel could address calls by Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. official and Middle East expert, and others to openly signal to Tehran that the United States and Israel are still serious about preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
"Biden needs to disabuse Iran of the notion that Washington will not act militarily and will stop Israel from doing so," Ross wrote last month.
Ross even suggested the United States should perhaps signal a willingness to give the Israeli's the U.S. military's bunker-busting Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bomb.
Asked about such remarks about deterrence, the senior U.S. official said: "When President Biden says Iran will never get a nuclear weapon, I mean, he means it."
Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns said on Monday that the CIA does not believe Iran's supreme leader has decided to take steps to weaponize a nuclear device but noted advances in its ability to enrich uranium, one pathway to the fissile material for a bomb.
Burns cautioned that, even if Iran decided to go ahead, it would still require a lot of work to weaponize that fissile material before attaching a nuclear weapon to a missile or other delivery system.
"But they're further along in their mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle and that's the kind of knowledge that is very difficult to sanction away or make disappear, as well," he said.
U.S. officials have also long worried about America's ability to detect and destroy dispersed components of Iran's nuclear weaponization program once enough fissile material for a bomb were produced.
巴基斯坦塔利班宣布結束停火
阿富汗塔利班在 8 月震驚地推翻了西方支持的政府，為談判提供了新的動力，但 TTP 指責伊斯蘭堡未能遵守停火協議。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 21:01
2021 年 11 月 2 日，塔利班戰士在阿富汗喀布爾急診醫院門口檢查受傷的同志
（圖片來源：路透社/ZOHRA BENSEMRA）
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巴基斯坦的塔利班武裝分子宣布結束在阿富汗塔利班的幫助下安排的為期一個月的停火，指責政府違反了包括釋放囚犯協議和組建談判委員會在內的條款。
巴基斯坦塔利班，或稱Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)，是一個獨立於阿富汗塔利班的運動，多年來一直在努力推翻伊斯蘭堡政府，並以他們自己的伊斯蘭教法進行統治。
上個月的停火一直持續到週四，如果雙方同意，則有可能延長，這是一系列試圖達成和解以結束已造成數千人死亡的衝突的最新嘗試。
阿富汗塔利班在 8 月震驚地推翻了西方支持的政府，為談判提供了新的動力，但 TTP 指責伊斯蘭堡未能遵守停火協議。
它說，政府沒有按照承諾釋放超過 100 名囚犯，也沒有任命談判小組進行談判。它還說，在停火生效期間，安全部隊進行了突襲。
2021 年 9 月 7 日，在阿富汗喀布爾舉行的反巴基斯坦抗議活動中，塔利班士兵走在抗議者面前。（圖片來源：WANA（西亞新聞社）VIA REUTERS）
“現在讓巴基斯坦人民決定是TTP還是巴基斯坦軍隊和機構不遵守協議？” 該集團在一份聲明中說。
“在這種情況下，不可能推進停火，”它說。
在西方，因襲擊因促進女童教育而獲得諾貝爾獎的女學生馬拉拉·優素福扎伊而聞名，TTP 多年來在爆炸和自殺式襲擊中殺死了數千名軍人和平民。
其中包括 2014 年襲擊阿富汗邊境附近白沙瓦的一所軍事學校，造成 149 人死亡，其中包括 132 名兒童。
Pakistan Taliban declare end to ceasefire
The Afghan Taliban's shock overthrow of the Western-backed government in August gave the talks fresh impetus but the TTP accused Islamabad of failing to respect the ceasefire agreement.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 21:01
Taliban fighters check on injured comrades at the entrance of the emergency hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan November 2, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS/ZOHRA BENSEMRA)
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Taliban militants in Pakistan declared an end to a month-long ceasefire arranged with the aid of the Afghan Taliban, accusing the government of breaching terms including a prisoner release agreement and the formation of negotiating committees.
The Pakistani Taliban, or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are a separate movement from the Afghan Taliban and have fought for years to overthrow the government in Islamabad and rule with their own brand of Islamic Sharia law.
Last month's ceasefire, which was always set to run until Thursday with the possibility of extending if both parties agreed, was the latest in a series of attempts to broker a settlement to end a conflict that has killed thousands.
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The Afghan Taliban's shock overthrow of the Western-backed government in August gave the talks fresh impetus but the TTP accused Islamabad of failing to respect the ceasefire agreement.
It said the government had not released more than 100 prisoners as promised and had not appointed negotiating teams to conduct talks. It also said security forces had carried out raids while the ceasefire was in force.
Taliban soldiers walk in front of protesters during the anti-Pakistan protest in Kabul, Afghanistan, September 7, 2021. (credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
"Now let the Pakistani people decide whether it is the TTP or the Pakistani army and establishment that is not abiding by the agreements?" the group said in a statement.
"In these circumstances, it is not possible to advance the ceasefire," it said.
Best known in the West for attacking Malala Yousafzai, the schoolgirl who went on to win the Nobel Prize for her work promoting girls' education, the TTP has killed thousands of military personnel and civilians over the years in bombings and suicide attacks.
Among its attacks was a 2014 assault on a military-run school in Peshawar, near the border with Afghanistan, which killed 149 people including 132 children.
美國必須採取雷根的方式來擊敗伊朗
中以色列：華盛頓必須在查爾斯·林登伯格和羅納德·雷根的遺產之間做出選擇。
作者：AMOTZ ASA-EL
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 21:16
上個月，在一次紀念“美國驅逐”伊朗的活動中，示威者站在前美國駐德黑蘭大使館牆上的反美壁畫前。
（圖片來源：MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA（西亞新聞社）通過路透社）
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在 1950 年代作為財政部長領導了西德的經濟奇蹟後，新任總理路德維希·艾哈德 (Ludwig Erhard) 有了一個沒人想到的想法：購買東德。
埃哈德認為自己是一名經濟學家，後來成為政治家，他認為 250 億美元的貸款對蘇聯來說是不可抗拒的，當時蘇聯的經濟問題已經變得明顯。是的，貸款可能會被償還，但這是德國領導人準備為他的國家統一付出的代價。
該計劃直到冷戰結束後才為人所知（“德國前總理考慮購買東德”，《明鏡周刊》，2011 年 10 月 4 日）提交給林登·約翰遜，但遭到拒絕。問題是為什麼，這個問題的答案雖然不完全清楚，但對美國、歐洲和以色列圍繞伊朗的這些天發生的事情具有指導意義。
從技術上講，美國人認為俄羅斯人不會接受該計劃。然而，實質上，這一集中真正發揮作用的是華盛頓和波恩之間戰略重點的差異。艾哈德的想法是全國性的。他希望他的國家重新統一。約翰遜的思想是全球性的。他希望共產主義在經濟上的失敗成熟起來，而向它注入現金幾乎無濟於事。
歐洲其他地區似乎沒有被告知該計劃，但其概念思想後來變得清晰，當時另一位德國領導人威利·勃蘭特 (Willy Brandt) 構想了“東方政治”(Ostpolitik)，即一種既非全國性也非全球性，而是大陸性的前景。
2019 年 12 月 19 日，歐盟旗幟在比利時布魯塞爾的歐盟委員會總部外飄揚。（來源：REUTERS/YVES HERMAN）
在東方政治的追隨者看來，最重要的不是改變東歐，而是防止戰爭。這就是為什麼站在柏林牆要求摧毀它的人不是歐洲人，而是美國人羅納德·裡根。
現在，就像他那個時代的艾哈德一樣，以色列正在考慮全國性，而歐洲又一次在考慮大陸問題。這是兩人所知道的唯一思考方式，因此他們別無選擇。然而，美國面臨兩難選擇，必須做出選擇。
以色列在伊朗的戰略目標不是糾正伊朗政權，而是恢復波斯的友誼，就像以色列從上個世紀和猶太人從古代回憶起的那樣。
與此同時，以色列的總體目標是自衛。那不是以色列的伊朗戰略，而是其生存戰略。這就是為什麼從以色列的任何角度來看德黑蘭的核計劃都是不能容忍的。這就是為什麼這裡沒有人不同意正在進行的破壞伊朗核計劃的努力，並破壞其在我們家門口安插敵對民兵的努力。
因此，圍繞以色列可能對伊朗發動襲擊的困境不是戰略而是戰術。以色列攻擊的一個戰略限制是它不應該讓無可指責的伊朗人民受到羞辱，就像過去在這裡爭論的那樣（“不要轟炸伊朗”，2011 年 11 月 4 日）。
那麼，這就是指導以色列伊朗戰略的國家思想。
歐洲的伊朗戰略也是不費吹灰之力。布魯塞爾不會像面對蘇聯那樣更加積極地面對德黑蘭的道德記錄。他們在布魯塞爾關心的不是如何為正義而戰，而是如何讓正義之戰遠離歐洲海岸。
不管喜歡與否，歐盟的組織原則是大陸性的。從其狹隘的觀點來看，人們不得不承認它奏效了。歐洲外交確實服務於其創始人的願景，歸結為“我們大陸時代的和平”。
美國的情況完全不同。
美國面臨兩難境地。它可以求助於傳說中的飛行員查爾斯·林德伯格 (Charles Lindbergh) 的遺產，他甚至在納粹主義的攻擊面前也宣揚孤立主義，但也是道德的。
林德伯格在二戰爆發兩年後、珍珠港事件發生前三個月在愛荷華州得梅因發表講話，在他著名的中立演講中說：“我們不能讓其他民族的自然激情和偏見導致我們的國家走向毀滅。 ”
就連他也很快意識到，導致毀滅的力量不在美國內部，而是在美國之外，它們所引發的破壞本質上是無限的，因此需要一種權力與道德相結合的對抗，這種結合只有美國才有。
伊朗現在也是如此，其神職人員的原罪不是他們的核災難，而是他們解除了從紐約、布宜諾斯艾利斯和巴厘島到伏爾加格勒、巴黎和馬德里造成數千人死亡的宗教暴力。
儘管經常由其他人執行，但伊斯蘭恐怖主義對文明的攻擊受到阿亞圖拉對伊朗的暴力佔領以及他們在其他地方不受懲罰的暴力行為的啟發。這場戰爭始於阿亞圖拉的崛起，不會在他們垮台之前結束。
因此，與他們談論他們的核計劃就像與希特勒談論蘇台德地區一樣。它沒有抓住重點。相反，關於放鬆制裁的談判應該從要求伊朗釋放所有政治犯、舉行自由選舉並承認以色列的生存權開始，就像大多數阿拉伯政府現在所做的那樣。
是的，毛拉們會斷然拒絕這一點，就像蘇聯人在聽到裡根的喊聲“先生”時所做的那樣。戈爾巴喬夫，推倒這堵牆，”但伊朗人民，就像他們那個時代的東歐居民一樣，會受到鼓舞。
赫爾穆特·科爾 (Helmut Kohl) 頌揚統一德國的總理裡根 (Reagan)，他在講話時也站在裡根的身邊，他說裡根是“世界，尤其是歐洲的幸運之舉”。一切都是真的，說得好，除了裡根代表的不是運氣。這是信念。這就是擊敗蘇聯的原因，也是擊敗伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的原因。
The US must take the Reagan approach to beat Iran
MIDDLE ISRAEL: Washington must choose between the legacies of Charles Lindenbergh and Ronald Reagan.
By AMOTZ ASA-EL
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 21:16
DEMONSTRATORS STAND in front of anti-American murals on a wall of the former US embassy in Tehran last month, during an event commemorating the ‘US expulsion’ from Iran.
(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
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Having led West Germany’s economic miracle as finance minister in the 1950s, newly appointed chancellor Ludwig Erhard had an idea of which no one had thought: Buy East Germany.
Thinking as the economist-turned-statesman that he was, Erhard figured that a $25 billion loan would be irresistible for the Soviet Union, whose economic ailments had by then become glaring. Yes, the loans would doubtfully be repaid, but that was a price the German leader was prepared to pay for his nation’s reunification.
The plan, which did not become known until well after the end of the Cold War (“Former German chancellor considered buying East Germany,” Der Spiegel, October 4, 2011), was presented to Lyndon Johnson, who rejected it. The question is why, and the answer to that, though not fully clear, is instructive for what is happening these days between America, Europe and Israel surrounding Iran.
TECHNICALLY, THE Americans argued that the Russians would not accept the plan. Substantively, however, what was really at play in this episode was the difference in strategic priorities between Washington and Bonn. Erhard’s thinking was national. He wanted his country reunified. Johnson’s thinking was global. He wanted communism’s economic failure to mature, and infusing it with cash would hardly serve that cause.
The rest of Europe appears to have not been told of the plan, but its conceptual thinking became clear later, when another German leader, Willy Brandt, conceived Ostpolitik, an outlook that was neither national nor global, but continental.
A European Union flag flies outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, December 19, 2019. (credit: REUTERS/YVES HERMAN)
As Ostpolitik’s followers saw things, the most important thing was not to change East Europe, but to prevent war. That is why the man who stood at the Berlin Wall and demanded its destruction was not a European, but the American Ronald Reagan.
Now, like Erhard in his time, Israel is thinking nationally, while Europe is once again thinking continentally. These are the only ways of thinking the two know, and they thus have no choice. America, however, faces a dilemma, and must make a choice.
ISRAEL’S STRATEGIC aim in Iran is not the correction of Iran’s regime, but the restoration of Persia’s friendship as Israel recalls it from last century and as the Jewish people recalls it from antiquity.
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At the same time, Israel has an overarching aim of defending itself, by itself. That is not Israel’s Iran strategy, but its survival strategy. That is why Tehran’s nuclear program is intolerable from any Israeli viewpoint. That is why no one here disagrees with the ongoing effort to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, and to derail its efforts to plant hostile militias at our doorstep.
The dilemmas surrounding a prospective Israeli attack in Iran are therefore not strategic but tactical. An Israeli assault’s one strategic constraint is that it should not leave the blameless Iranian people humiliated, as argued here in the past (“Don’t bomb Iran,” November 4, 2011).
This, then, is the national thinking that guides Israel’s Iran strategy.
Europe’s Iran strategy is also a no-brainer. Brussels will not confront Tehran’s moral record any more energetically than it confronted the USSR’s. What they care about in Brussels is not how to fight for justice, but how to keep the war for justice away from European shores.
Like it or not, the EU’s organizing principle is continental. And from its narrow viewpoint, one has to admit that it worked. European diplomacy has indeed served its founders’ vision, which boiled down to “peace in our time in our continent.”
America’s situation is entirely different.
AMERICA FACES a dilemma. It can turn to the legacy of Charles Lindbergh, the fabled aviator who preached isolationism even in the face of Nazism’s assault, and it can turn to the legacy of Ronald Reagan, who stood up to the communist scourge and confronted it not only diplomatically and economically, but also morally.
Lindbergh, speaking in Des Moines, Iowa, two years after World War II’s outbreak and three months before Pearl Harbor, said in his famous Speech on Neutrality: “We cannot allow the natural passions and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to destruction.”
As even he soon realized, the forces leading to destruction were not within America, but outside it, and the destruction they were inspiring was by nature limitless, and thus demanded a confrontation that would blend power and morality, a combination that only America possessed.
The same now goes for Iran, whose clerics’ original sin is not their nuclear scourge, but their uncorking of the religious violence that has killed thousands from New York, Buenos Aires, and Bali to Volgograd, Paris and Madrid.
Though often performed by others, Islamist terrorism’s attack on civilization was inspired by the ayatollahs’ violent seizure of Iran, and by their unpunished violence elsewhere. This war began with the rise of the ayatollahs and will not end before their downfall.
It follows that talking with them about their nuclear program is like talking with Hitler about the Sudetenland. It misses the point. Instead, talks about easing sanctions should begin with a demand that Iran free all political prisoners, hold free elections and recognize Israel’s right to exist, as most Arabs’ governments now do.
Yes, the mullahs would reject this flatly, the way the Soviets did when they heard Reagan’s cry “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall,” but the Iranian people, like the East Bloc’s residents in their time, would be inspired.
Eulogizing Reagan, the chancellor who unified Germany and also stood at Reagan’s side as he spoke, Helmut Kohl, said Reagan was “a stroke of luck for the world, especially for Europe.” All true and well said, except that what Reagan represented was not luck. It was conviction. That is what defeated the Soviet Union, and that is what will defeat the Islamic Republic of Iran.
www.MiddleIsrael.net
The writer’s bestselling Mitzad Ha’ivelet Ha’yehudi (The Jewish March of Folly, Yediot Sefarim, 2019), is a revisionist history of the Jewish people’s leadership from antiquity to modernity.
與伊朗相比，以色列是否是超級大國？
地緣政治事務：第二輪核武器談判從一開始就停滯不前——除了耶路撒冷的外卡。
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 21:30
代表團昨天在維也納召開了 JCPOA 聯合委員會會議。
（圖片來源：路透社）
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進入周四與強硬派伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西的新代表的第二輪核會談，可能最有趣的問題是關於一個甚至不參加會談的一方——以色列。
談判各方的立場，儘管一些歐洲官員感到驚訝，但實際上與各方在過去半年裡所說的一致。
當你把這些頭寸加起來時，你不會得到新的交易，或者坦率地說，甚至不會接近新的交易。
以色列可能是一張可以改變局面的外卡。
這是為什麼？
2021 年 5 月 24 日，在奧地利維也納，在冠狀病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行期間，伊朗國旗飄揚在國際原子能機構總部所在的聯合國辦公大樓前。（來源：LISI NIESNER/REUTERS）
讓我們來看看各國的立場。
自 6 月 Raisi 接管伊朗（代表最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）在幕後牽線搭橋）以來，他就明確表示，在美國首先取消制裁之前，他不會恢復核限制。即便如此，伊朗也會這樣做，前提是有一種機制可以驗證制裁救濟是否滲透到伊斯蘭共和國的經濟中。
哦，德黑蘭也不急於達成協議，無論其經濟多麼糟糕，因為它知道只要中俄繼續支持它，它就可以生存。更不用說它指望美國和歐盟先眨眼，因為他們一直公開渴望達成協議。
美國曾表示，它不會事先給伊朗任何它想要的東西，但會在同時互惠的行動中給它大部分它想要的東西。
包括法國、英國和德國在內的歐盟 3 國一直寄希望於 Raisi 非常感激他有拜登而不是特朗普打交道，他會理性和成熟並同意拜登相互恢復核限制以解除制裁。
此外，他們希望，由於他們與伊朗前政府哈桑·魯哈尼 (Hassan Rouhani) 談判了 80% 的交易，這將限制 Raisi 的野心。
任何關注過的人都可以看到，美歐三國和伊朗的立場之間幾乎沒有實質性的重疊，而賴西的主要觀點之一就是將魯哈尼的實用主義視為無用的弱點。
但美國和歐盟 3 國直到上週才予以否認，當時他們震驚地得知 Raisi 和他的使者不是在開玩笑，而是他們大聲說的意思。
現在美國和歐盟 3 國陷入困境，因為：華盛頓想考慮 B 計劃，因為談判陷入僵局，但它無法決定 B 計劃應該是什麼，也無法調和它會導致的後果。
德國、法國和英國都在伊朗表達了他們在歐洲最好的震驚，但他們甚至不想討論 B 計劃，基本上讓他們成為完全不合格的球員。
中國實際上可能是一個主要變量，它可能會迫使 Raisi 遵守規定並在沒有新的讓步的情況下重返2015 年的交易。然而，北京現在對美國在台灣、香港、貿易戰、榮譽和美國屈尊俯就的態度太生氣了，不想提供幫助。
俄羅斯可能看起來想提供幫助，弗拉基米爾·普京總統私下對拜登這麼說。但通常普京很高興美國因混亂而分心，特別是如果它使莫斯科更容易重新奪回烏克蘭的更多部分，或者因為足夠仁慈避免入侵而獲得其他一些讓步。
無論如何，儘管伊朗採取了極端的邊緣政策，但你還沒有聽到中國或俄羅斯公開對伊朗進行猛烈抨擊。
事實上，全世界都被台灣、烏克蘭、德國新總理、英國鮑里斯約翰遜的醜聞、美國內部持續不斷的政治戰爭——當然還有最新的冠狀病毒浪潮所困擾。
因此，除了以色列之外，實際上沒有人將伊朗視為近期威脅或願意承擔很大風險——同時也有能力對局勢採取行動（溫和的遜尼派國家將伊朗視為威脅，但他們太弱了，無法應對）。自行處理）。
這讓我們回到以色列是否可以成為讓德黑蘭採取更合理立場的變量。
這個問題實際上歸結為以色列是否比伊朗更強大，以至於它可以對其核計劃進行長期的嚴重打擊，而不會被伊斯蘭共和國及其代理人削弱。
四位前摩薩德酋長——塔米爾·帕爾多、埃弗萊姆·哈萊維、丹尼·亞托姆和沙布泰·沙維特——認為，面對一個擁有 8500 萬人口的國家，以色列必須表現出一些謙遜，在一個次大陸大小的區域內分佈著數十個核電站它可以容納歐洲的大部分地區，並且已經掌握了幾乎整個核鈾濃縮循環。
前摩薩德首領尤西·科恩在 2016 年至 2021 年 6 月的任期內明確表示不同意。科恩強烈認為，耶路撒冷已經超越了早期的概念，即伊朗為其使用武力製造了匹配問題，並且它必須始終等待美國的批准才能採取行動。
他的信念是，以色列已經獲得了自己的地區超級大國地位，並且幾乎可以隨意在伊朗使用秘密和公開的武力，就像它近年來在敘利亞和伊拉克開始做的那樣——這是它永遠不會做的在作為一個不起眼的地區大國的舊安全概念下。
然而，最重要的問題是現任摩薩德主管大衛·巴尼亞會站在哪一邊。
巴尼亞由科恩和前總理本傑明內塔尼亞胡精心挑選，但正在為總理納夫塔利貝內特服務，後者最初主張不要像他的前任那樣公開與美國發生衝突。
作為新的摩薩德首領，他也不需要將自己束縛在科恩的遺產上。鑑於內塔尼亞胡和特朗普政府試圖在沒有明確 B 計劃的情況下破壞伊朗協議的批評越來越多，許多人認為他可能會朝著大多數前摩薩德酋長的方向前進。
巴尼亞上週在光明節的演講讓這一切戛然而止。
他相信這個猶太國家有權在認為有必要時對伊朗使用武力，並親自承諾他會在他的監督下這樣做以阻止核武器。
儘管在後內塔尼亞胡時代有一些與政治無關的高級安全官員準備對伊朗採取行動，但基於以色列強大無比的假設，這可能會讓一些人感到驚訝，但事實並非如此。
巴尼亞不是第一個。
該部門的真正突破是以色列國防軍參謀長中將軍一月份的一次演講。阿維夫·科哈維。
在那次演講中，他表示，重返 2015 年與伊朗的核協議，或者“稍微改進”的協議，將是世界的一個操作和戰略錯誤。
此外，他說，如果伊朗在濃縮鈾方面的先進離心機進展和跳躍不被阻止，它最終可能會使其距離核彈“只有幾週”。
這位以色列國防軍負責人表示，美國和其他國家現在必須保持所有製裁和壓力，因為德黑蘭處於最弱的狀態，最接近做出真正的讓步。
此外，他表示，他已下令在必要時準備好打擊伊朗核計劃的行動計劃，但是否使用這些計劃以及在什麼情況下由政治梯隊決定。
此外，他說，以色列對敘利亞和中東其他未定義地區的襲擊，對以色列的敵人造成了迄今為止最大的威懾。
如果像加比·阿什肯納茲、本尼·甘茨和加迪·艾森科特這樣的前以色列國防軍首領想要淡化內塔尼亞胡的劍拔弩張的企圖，以免過早地讓他們對伊朗的核計劃進行空襲，科哈維似乎是在告訴內塔尼亞胡不要插手他的大大地。
如果許多前國防和情報官員擔心攻擊伊朗會帶來不穩定和不確定的反彈，科哈維似乎暗示他的以色列國防軍在 2021 年可能會主宰比賽場地。
科哈維和巴尼亞是對的嗎？以色列能否將伊朗的核計劃推遲足夠長的時間，以值得承擔以伊朗彈道導彈和來自真主黨和加沙地帶的火箭彈形式的攻擊和潛在反擊的風險？
考慮到伊朗的核設施有多分散，它從三起據稱摩薩德對其設施進行的秘密破壞行動中恢復的速度有多快，以及無法轟炸其核科學家在 2020-2021 年獲得的知識，這個問題變得更加強烈。
此外，甘茨在這個問題上的立場仍然發出混合信號，他所有的重大政治和安全決策都表現出不願承擔重大風險。
除了達成協議或戰爭之外，談判還有另一種可能的結果，有些人稱之為伊朗“將在門檻上睡覺”。
就實現威脅的明顯減少而言，這對以色列不利，但對華盛頓和德黑蘭來說可能是最不壞的選擇，因為它避免了危機，任何一方都不需要做出它不想做出的讓步。
實際上，它基本凍結了伊朗接近門檻的當前核形勢的實質，沒有越過門檻，只是要求雙方不要吵得太多。
歸根結底，與伊朗是否相信威脅並相信以色列是一個可以大大超越它的超級大國相比，Kohavi 和 Barnea 是否正確更不重要。
在這裡，這是任何人的猜測。
近年來，伊朗人在對摩薩德和以色列國防軍錶示敬畏和恐懼，以及對以色列進行高風險的大膽賭博之間交替。
但德黑蘭是否相信耶路撒冷是一個準備將其摧毀的地區超級大國，可能會決定核僵局的結果。
Is Israel a superpower in relation to Iran or not?
GEOPOLITICAL AFFAIRS: Round two of nuke negotiations look stalled from the start – other than the Jerusalem wild card.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 21:30
DELEGATIONS CONVENE for a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, yesterday.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
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Going into Thursday’s second round of nuclear talks with the new representatives of hardliner Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, probably the most interesting question is about a party that is not even part of the talks – Israel.
The positions of the parties to the talks, despite some European officials being surprised, are actually quite consistent with what all the parties have been saying for the last half-year.
And when you add up those positions, you get no new deal or, to be blunt, not even close to a new deal.
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Israel may be the one wild card that could shake things up.
Why is that?
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (credit: LISI NIESNER/ REUTERS)
Let’s run down the various countries’ positions.
Since Raisi took over Iran (on behalf of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who pulls all the strings behind the scenes) in June, he has unambiguously said that he would not return to nuclear limits until the US first removed sanctions. And even then, Iran would do so only if there was a mechanism to verify that sanctions relief filtered down into the Islamic Republic’s economy.
Oh, and Tehran is in no rush for a deal, no matter how bad its economy is, because it knows that as long as China and Russia keep it propped up, it can survive. Not to mention it was counting on the US and the EU to blink first since they have been openly desperate for a deal.
The US has said it will not give Iran anything it wants beforehand, but will give it most of what it wants in a simultaneous reciprocal move.
The EU-3, including France, England and Germany, have been banking on Raisi being so grateful that he has Biden to deal with and not Trump that he would be rational and mature and agree to Biden’s mutual return of nuclear limits for lifting sanctions.
Also, they hoped that since they had 80% of a deal negotiated with the previous Iranian government of Hassan Rouhani, this would constrain Raisi’s ambitions.
Anyone who has paid attention can see that there is virtually no substantive overlap between the US-EU-3 and Iranian positions, and that one of Raisi’s main points was to toss Rouhani’s pragmatism to the wind as useless weakness.
But the US and the EU-3 were in denial until last week, when they were shocked to learn Raisi and his messengers were not kidding and meant what they had been saying out loud.
Now the US and the EU-3 are stuck because: Washington wants to think about a plan B, given that the talks are stuck, but it cannot decide what plan B should be, nor can it reconcile the consequences of where it would lead.
Germany, France and England all expressed their best European consternation at Iran, but do not even want to discuss a plan B, essentially leaving them as totally feckless players.
China actually could be a major variable which could force Raisi to toe the line and return to the 2015 deal with no new concessions. However, Beijing is too mad right now at the US about Taiwan, Hong Kong, trade wars, honor and perceived American condescension to want to help.
Russia might want to look like it wants to help, and President Vladimir Putin said so privately to Biden. But often Putin is happy for the US to be distracted by chaos, especially if it makes it easier for Moscow to retake more parts of Ukraine or get some other concessions for being gracious enough to refrain from invading.
In any event, you have not heard any full-throated criticism of Iran publicly from either China or Russia, despite extreme Iranian brinkmanship.
And the world is in fact very distracted by the situation in Taiwan, Ukraine, a new German premier, the UK’s Boris Johnson’s scandals, constant internal US political warfare – and, of course, the latest coronavirus waves.
So no one besides Israel is actually focused on Iran as a near-term threat or willing to take much risk – along with having the power to do something about the situation (the moderate Sunni states view Iran as a threat, but are too weak to act on their own).
THIS BRINGS us back to whether Israel can be the variable that could get Tehran to take a more reasonable position.
This question really comes down to whether Israel is overwhelmingly more powerful than Iran to the extent that it could dish out a long-term crippling blow to its nuclear program without being crippled itself by the Islamic Republic and its proxies.
Four former Mossad chiefs – Tamir Pardo, Efraim Halevy, Danny Yatom and Shabtai Shavit – think that Israel must show some humility in the face of a country of 85 million people, with dozens of nuclear sites spread out over an area the size of a subcontinent which could fit much of Europe inside it, and which has already mastered almost the entire nuclear uranium enrichment cycle.
Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen made it clear during his 2016-June 2021 term that he disagreed. Cohen felt strongly that Jerusalem has outgrown the earlier concept that Iran creates matchup problems for it for using force and that it must always wait for US approval to act.
His belief was that Israel had achieved its own regional superpower status and can use a mix of covert and overt force in Iran virtually at will, the same as it has started to do in recent years in Syria and Iraq – something it never would have done under the old security concept of being a humble regional power.
And yet the all-important question was which side current Mossad Director David Barnea would take.
Barnea was handpicked by Cohen and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but is serving Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who initially advocated not publicly banging heads with the US like his predecessor.
As the new Mossad chief, he also did not need to tie himself down to Cohen’s legacy. Given the rising criticism of the Netanyahu-Trump administrations trying to wreck the Iran deal without a clear plan B, many thought he might move in the direction of the majority of the former Mossad chiefs.
Barnea’s Hanukkah speech last week put that to rest.
He believes the Jewish state has the power to use force against Iran whenever it feels necessary and personally promised he would do so to block a nuclear weapon on his watch.
Although it might come as a surprise to some that there are apolitical top security officials in a post-Netanyahu era who are ready to act against Iran based on the presumption that Israel is overpoweringly stronger, it should not.
Barnea is not the first.
The real breakthrough in this department was a January speech by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi.
In that speech, he said a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, or a “slightly improved” deal, would be an operational and strategic mistake for the world.
Further, he said that if Iran’s advanced centrifuge progress and jumps in enriching uranium were not stopped, it could eventually bring it to be “only weeks” away from a nuclear bomb.
The IDF chief said that the US and others must maintain all sanctions and pressure now, as Tehran is at its weakest and closest to making real concessions.
Further, he said that he had ordered operational plans to strike Iran’s nuclear program to be ready if necessary, but that whether to use those plans and under what circumstances was a decision for the political echelon.
In addition, he said that Israel’s strikes in Syria and other undefined parts of the Middle East had created the greatest deterrence Israel has ever known against its enemies.
If prior IDF chiefs like Gabi Ashkenazi, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot had wanted to water down Netanyahu’s attempts at saber-rattling so as not to prematurely commit them to an airstrike on Iran’s nuclear program, Kohavi seemed to be telling Netanyahu not to get in his way.
If many former defense and intelligence officials feared the destabilizing and uncertain backlash of attacking Iran, Kohavi seemed to suggest his IDF in 2021 could dominate the playing field.
ARE KOHAVI and Barnea right? Could Israel both set back Iran’s nuclear program long enough to be worth the risks of an attack and potential blowback in the form of Iranian ballistic missiles and rockets from Hezbollah and Gaza?
The question gets stronger taking into account how spread out Iran’s nuclear facilities are, how quickly it has recovered from three alleged Mossad covert sabotage operations of its facilities, and that one cannot bomb the knowledge its nuclear scientists have gained in 2020-2021.
Also, Gantz still sends out mixed signals on his position on the issue, and all of his major political and security decisions have shown an aversion to taking major risks.
There is another possible outcome of negotiations besides a deal or war that some are referring to as something along the lines of Iran “going to sleep on the threshold.”
This would be bad for Israel in terms of achieving a clear reduction in the threat, but it may be the least bad option for Washington and Tehran because it avoids a crisis and neither side needs to make concessions it does not want to make.
In fact, it basically freezes the substance of the current nuclear situation where Iran is close to the threshold without crossing it, and just asks both sides not to make too much noise.
At the end of the day, it is less relevant whether Kohavi and Barnea are right than whether Iran believes the threat and believes that Israel is a superpower that can substantially outmatch it.
Here, it is anyone’s guess.
The Iranians in recent years have alternated between expressing awe and fear of the Mossad and the IDF, and attempting audacious gambles against Israel which carried high risk.
But whether Tehran believes Jerusalem is a regional superpower ready to take it down may determine the outcome of the nuclear standoff.
新西蘭禁止為後代銷售捲菸
新西蘭正在打擊購買香煙——這是世界上最嚴厲的措施之一。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 07:21
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 9 日 07:22
深呼吸：特拉維夫的吸煙污染
（照片來源：說明性像素）
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新西蘭計劃禁止年輕人在有生之年購買香煙，這是世界上對煙草業最嚴厲的打擊之一，理由是其他戒菸努力花費的時間太長。
到 2027 年，太平洋地區 500 萬人口的國家將永遠不允許 14 歲及以下的人購買捲菸，週四公佈的部分提案還將限制被授權銷售菸草的零售商數量，並降低所有產品中的尼古丁含量。
該禁令將在該人的餘生中一直有效。這意味著 2073 年 60 歲的人將被禁止購買香煙，而 61 歲的人將被允許這樣做。
新西蘭衛生部副部長 Ayesha Verrall 在一份聲明中說：“我們希望確保年輕人永遠不會開始吸煙，因此我們將向新的青年群體銷售或供應吸煙產品定為犯罪。”
“如果沒有任何改變，毛利人的吸煙率要降到 5% 以下還需要幾十年的時間，而且這個政府不准備讓人們掉隊。”
根據政府數據，目前，15 歲以上的新西蘭人中有 11.6% 吸煙，而在土著毛利成年人中，這一比例上升到 29%。
新西蘭總理傑辛達·阿德恩 (Jacinda Ardern) 於 2020 年 3 月 13 日在新西蘭克賴斯特徹奇舉行的新聞發布會上。（來源：路透社/馬丁·亨特）
政府將在未來幾個月與毛利人衛生特別工作組協商，然後於明年 6 月將立法提交議會，目標是在 2022 年底前使其成為法律。
這些限制措施將從 2024 年開始分階段推出，首先是授權銷售商的數量急劇減少，然後是 2025 年降低尼古丁要求，並從 2027 年開始創建“無菸”一代。
一攬子措施將使新西蘭的煙草零售業成為世界上最受限制的煙草業之一，僅次於完全禁止銷售捲菸的不丹。新西蘭的鄰國澳大利亞於 2012 年成為世界上第一個強制要求對捲菸進行平裝的國家。
新西蘭政府表示，雖然無裝飾包裝和銷售稅等現有措施減緩了煙草消費，但要實現到 2025 年每天吸煙人數少於 5% 的目標，還需要採取更嚴厲的措施。
政府表示，新規定將在生效後短短 10 年內將該國的吸煙率減半。
在新西蘭，吸煙每年導致約 5,000 人死亡，使其成為該國可預防死亡的主要原因之一。該國政府表示，五分之四的吸煙者在 18 歲之前開始吸煙。
New Zealand to ban cigarette sales for future generations
New Zealand is combating the purchase of cigarettes - with one of the harshest measures in the world.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 9, 2021 07:21
Updated: DECEMBER 9, 2021 07:22
Deep breaths: Smoking pollution in Tel Aviv
(photo credit: ILLUSTRATIVE PEXELS)
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New Zealand plans to ban young people from ever buying cigarettes in their lifetime in one of the world's toughest crackdowns on the tobacco industry, arguing that other efforts to extinguish smoking were taking too long.
People aged 14 and under in 2027 will never be allowed to purchase cigarettes in the Pacific country of five million, part of the proposals unveiled on Thursday will also curb the number of retailers authorized to sell tobacco and cut nicotine levels in all products.
The ban will remain in place for the rest of the person's life. That means a person aged 60 in 2073 will be banned from buying cigarettes, while a person aged 61 would be allowed to do so.
"We want to make sure young people never start smoking so we will make it an offense to sell or supply smoked tobacco products to new cohorts of youth," New Zealand Associate Minister of Health Ayesha Verrall said in a statement.
"If nothing changes, it would be decades till Māori smoking rates fall below 5%, and this government is not prepared to leave people behind."
Currently, 11.6% of all New Zealanders aged over 15 smoke, a proportion that rises to 29% among indigenous Maori adults, according to government figures.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during a news conference in Christchurch, New Zealand, March 13, 2020. (credit: REUTERS/MARTIN HUNTER)
The government will consult with a Maori health task force in the coming months before introducing legislation into parliament in June next year, with the aim of making it law by the end of 2022.
The restrictions would then be rolled out in stages from 2024, beginning with a sharp reduction in the number of authorized sellers, followed by reduced nicotine requirements in 2025 and the creation of the "smoke-free" generation from 2027.
The package of measures will make New Zealand's retail tobacco industry one of the most restricted in the world, just behind Bhutan where cigarette sales are banned outright. New Zealand's neighbor Australia was the first country in the world to mandate plain packaging of cigarettes in 2012.
The New Zealand government said while existing measures like plain packaging and levies on sales had slowed tobacco consumption, the tougher steps were necessary to achieve its goal of fewer than 5% of the population smoking daily by 2025.
The new rules would halve the country's smoking rates in as few as 10 years from when they take effect, the government said.
Smoking kills about 5,000 people a year in New Zealand, making it one of the country's top causes of preventable death. Four in five smokers started before age 18, the country's government said.
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