2021.12.01 國際新聞導讀-蘇丹政變尚未平息、伊朗核武談判已進行兩天、伊朗與土庫曼亞塞拜然之天然氣交換協議

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.01 國際新聞導讀-蘇丹政變尚未平息、伊朗核武談判已進行兩天、伊朗與土庫曼亞塞拜然之天然氣交換協議
數万人遊行反對蘇丹的軍事統治，遭到催淚瓦斯
自 2019 年奧馬爾·巴希爾 (Omar al-Bashir) 倒台以來，10 月 25 日的接管結束了與民間政治團體的伙伴關係，並引起了暫停援助的西方大國的譴責。
週二，蘇丹安全部隊向聚集在喀土穆市中心的數万名抗議者部署了催淚瓦斯，以反對上個月政變後的軍事統治。
儘管上周達成協議，恢復了文職總理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克 (Abdalla Hamdok) 的職務，並釋放了自政變以來被拘留的大多數高級政客，但鄰里抵抗委員會仍呼籲舉行抗議活動。
自2019 年奧馬爾·巴希爾( Omar al-Bashir)倒台以來，10 月 25 日的接管結束了與民間政治團體的伙伴關係，並引起了暫停援助的西方大國的譴責。
雖然首都姐妹城市之間的橋樑保持開放，但全副武裝的警察部隊進入喀土穆市中心，抗議者計劃在那裡游行到總統府。
他們發射催淚瓦斯並開始追趕抗議者，他們聚集在距離宮殿約一公里的地方，封鎖了主要道路，並高呼“士兵們，回到軍營”。
2021 年 10 月 25 日，在蘇丹喀土穆發生的軍事政變期間，路障被點燃（圖片來源：REUTERS/EL TAYEB SIDDIG）
其他抗議活動發生在蘇丹港、卡薩拉、尼亞拉和阿特巴拉等城市。
委員會和政黨拒絕了哈姆多克簽署的協議，後者表示將釋放數十名被拘留者，結束對已造成 42 人死亡的抗議者的鎮壓，並保留數十億的外援。
在抗議活動中看到了一些獲釋的政客。
根據他的推特賬戶和與他關係密切的消息來源，瓦格迪·薩利赫是一個備受爭議的反腐敗特別工作組的受歡迎領導人，他於週一深夜獲釋。
他的家人告訴路透社，前工業部長 Ibrahim al-Sheikh 和兩名工作組成員也被釋放。
然而，律師莫伊茲·哈德拉說，薩利赫、阿爾謝赫和政治家伊斯梅爾·塔格面臨煽動武裝部隊的指控。
他補充說：“喀土穆的索巴監獄仍有被拘留者，在緊急狀態下的抗議活動中被捕的男人、女人和兒童，我們要求將他們與蘇丹各州的其他人一起釋放。”
喀土穆委員會周一提到高級軍事將領時表示，他們“不區分哈姆多克、布爾汗或赫梅蒂與其他將軍，他們都是政變的參與者，屬於絞刑架。”
軍事統治者 Abdel Fattah al-Burhan 表示，需要進行接管，以使蘇丹的過渡重回正軌，並允許和平集會。他說，正在調查抗議期間的死亡事件，指責警察和武裝政治派別。
Tens of thousands march against military rule in Sudan, met with tear gas
The October 25 takeover ended a partnership with civilian political groups since the toppling of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and drew condemnation from Western powers who have suspended aid.
By REUTERS
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 15:20
PEOPLE GATHERED on the streets last week in Khartoum amid billowing smoke and reports of a coup in Sudan.
(photo credit: RASD Sudan network via Reuters)
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Sudanese security forces deployed tear gas on tens of thousands of protesters gathering in central Khartoum on Tuesday to oppose military rule following last month's coup.
Neighborhood resistance committees called the protests despite an agreement last week that reinstated civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and brought the release of most top politicians detained since the coup.
The October 25 takeover ended a partnership with civilian political groups since the toppling of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and drew condemnation from Western powers who have suspended aid.
While bridges between the capital's sister cities were left open, heavily-armed police forces took to central Khartoum where protesters planned to march on the presidential palace.
They fired tear gas and began chasing protesters as they gathered about a kilometer from the palace, blocking the main road and chanting "Soldiers, go back to the barracks."
A road barricade is set on fire during what the information ministry calls a military coup in Khartoum, Sudan, October 25, 2021 (credit: REUTERS/EL TAYEB SIDDIG)
Other protests took place in cities including Port Sudan, Kassala, Nyala and Atbara.
The committees and political parties have rejected the deal signed by Hamdok, who said it would bring the release of dozens of detainees, end a crackdown on protesters that has seen 42 people die, and preserve billions in foreign aid.
'POPULAR ESCALATION'
Some of the freed politicians were seen at the protests.
Wagdi Salih, popular leader of a controversial anti-corruption taskforce, was released late on Monday night, according to his Twitter account and sources close to him.
Former industry minister Ibrahim al-Sheikh was also released along with two taskforce members, his family told Reuters.
However, Salih, al-Sheikh and fellow politician Ismail al-Tag, face charges of inciting the armed forces, lawyer Moiz Hadra said.
"There are still detainees in Soba prison in Khartoum, men, women and children who were arrested during the protests under the state of emergency and we demand their release along with others across Sudan's states," he added.
Referencing top military generals, the Khartoum committees said on Monday they "do not differentiate between Hamdok or Burhan or Hemedti and the rest of the generals, they are all participants in the coup and belong in the gallows."
Military ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has said the takeover was needed to set Sudan's transition back on track and that peaceful rallies are allowed. Deaths during protests are being investigated, he has said, blaming police and armed political factions.
德國因在雅茲迪種族滅絕中的角色而將伊斯蘭國成員終身監禁
法院裁定，這包括謀殺一名被告奴役並被鎖在窗戶上的五歲女孩，讓她在酷熱中死去。
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發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 16:58
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 17:40
2021 年 2 月 6 日在伊拉克科霍舉行的葬禮上，人們看到了被伊斯蘭國激進分子殺害並從亂葬坑中挖掘出來的雅茲迪少數民族遺骸的棺材。 圖片拍攝於 2021 年 2 月 6 日。
（圖片來源：路透社/夏洛特布魯諾）
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週二，德國一家法院判處一名前伊斯蘭國激進分子終身監禁，此前他因伊斯蘭國在敘利亞和伊拉克大規模屠殺少數族裔雅茲迪人而被判參與種族滅絕和危害人類罪。
這是對伊斯蘭國成員的首次種族滅絕判決，該組織是基地組織的一個分支，於 2014 年佔領了伊拉克和敘利亞的大片地區，然後被美國支持的反攻行動驅逐，並於 2019 年失去了最後一個領土堡壘。
法蘭克福法院裁定，29 歲的伊拉克國民塔哈·朱邁利 (Taha al-Jumailly) 犯有參與 2014-15 年伊斯蘭聖戰分子屠殺 3,000 多名雅茲迪人和奴役 7,000 名婦女和女孩的罪行。
法院裁定，這包括謀殺一名被告奴役並被鎖在窗戶上的五歲女孩，讓她在酷熱中死去。
Al-Jumailly 進入法庭時用文件夾遮住臉，於 2019 年在希臘被捕並被引渡到德國，在那裡被殺害的 Yazidis 的親屬作為原告支持起訴。
2019 年 3 月 8 日，在伊拉克北部什罕，國際婦女節期間，雅茲迪的婦女們在莉拉什神廟參加儀式，以紀念被伊斯蘭國武裝分子殺害的婦女的死亡（圖片來源：ARI JALAL / REUTERS）
被告的德國妻子，僅被確認為 Jennifer W.，在審判中被用作控方證人。上個月，她因參與奴役雅茲迪女孩及其母親而被判處 10 年監禁。
該雅茲迪是在敘利亞東部的一個古老的宗教少數群體和西北伊拉克伊斯蘭國視為應該魔鬼崇拜者對他們的信心，結合瑣羅亞斯德教，基督教，摩尼教，猶太教和穆斯林信仰。
伊斯蘭國的掠奪也使 550,000 人的雅茲迪社區中的大部分人流離失所。
Germany jails Islamic State member for life over role in Yazidi genocide
This, the court ruled, included the murder of a five-year-old girl the defendant had enslaved and chained to a window, leaving her to die in scorching heat.
By REUTERS
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 16:58
Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 17:40
Coffins with remains of people from the Yazidi minoirty, who were killed by Islamic State militants, and they were exhumed from a mass grave, are seen during the funeral in Kojo, Iraq February 6, 2021.Picture taken February 6, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS/CHARLOTTE BRUNEAU)
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A German court on Tuesday jailed a former Islamic State militant for life after convicting him of involvement in genocide and crimes against humanity over mass killings of minority Yazidis by IS in Syria and Iraq.
It was the first genocide verdict against a member of the Islamic State, an offshoot of al Qaeda that seized large swathes of Iraq and Syria in 2014 before being ousted by US-backed counter-offensives, losing its last territorial redoubt in 2019.
The court in Frankfurt found Taha al-Jumailly, 29, an Iraqi national, guilty of involvement in the slaughter of more than 3,000 Yazidis and enslavement of 7,000 women and girls by IS jihadists in 2014-15.
This, the court ruled, included the murder of a five-year-old girl the defendant had enslaved and chained to a window, leaving her to die in scorching heat.
Al-Jumailly, who entered the court covering his face with a file folder, was arrested in Greece in 2019 and extradited to Germany where relatives of slain Yazidis acted as plaintiffs supporting the prosecution.
Yazidi's women attend a ceremony at Lilash Temple to commemorate the death of women who were killed by Islamic State militants, during the International Women Day, in Shikhan north of Iraq March 8, 2019 (credit: ARI JALAL / REUTERS)
The defendant's German wife, identified only as Jennifer W., was used as a prosecution witness at the trial. She was sentenced to 10 years in prison last month for involvement in the enslavement of the Yazidi girl and her mother.
The Yazidis are an ancient religious minority in eastern Syria and northwest Iraq that Islamic State viewed as supposed devil worshippers for their faith that combines Zoroastrian, Christian, Manichean, Jewish and Muslim beliefs.
Islamic State's depredations also displaced most of the 550,000-strong Yazidi community.
北約警告莫斯科 攻擊烏克蘭代價高昂
北約外長將討論對俄羅斯在烏克蘭邊境集結軍隊的反應。
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發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 11:19
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 15:00
北約秘書長延斯·斯托爾滕貝格於 2021 年 10 月 21 日在比利時布魯塞爾的聯盟總部舉行的北約國防部長會議上發表講話
（圖片來源：路透社/PASCAL ROSSIGNOL）
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俄羅斯將為對烏克蘭的任何新軍事侵略付出高昂代價，北約和美國周二警告說，西方軍事聯盟開會討論莫斯科在前蘇聯共和國邊境集結軍隊的意圖。
北約秘書長延斯·斯托爾滕貝格在拉脫維亞首都裡加舉行的北約外長會談前告訴記者，西方已經表明它可以對莫斯科實施經濟、金融和政治制裁。
斯托爾滕貝格說：“如果俄羅斯再次使用武力反對烏克蘭的獨立，他們將付出高昂的代價。”
預計美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯將向他的 29 名北約同行通報華盛頓關於該聯盟東翼和非北約成員國烏克蘭正在發生的事情的情報。
他在會前的新聞發布會上說：“俄羅斯的任何升級行動都將引起美國的極大關注……而任何重新發動侵略都將引發嚴重後果。”
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京（圖片來源：REUTERS/MAXIM SHEMETOV）
“我們將在未來幾天與北約盟國和合作夥伴密切協商……關於我們作為聯盟是否應該採取其他步驟來加強我們的防禦、增強我們的彈性、增強我們的能力。”
基輔與西方融合的願望引發了與莫斯科的對峙。
'惡意活動'
克里姆林宮於 2014 年從烏克蘭吞併了黑海克里米亞半島，然後支持在該國東部與政府軍作戰的叛軍。據基輔稱，這場衝突已造成 14,000 人死亡，並且仍在醞釀之中。
今年俄羅斯在烏克蘭邊境集結了兩次軍隊，這讓西方感到震驚。西方官員說，今年 5 月，俄羅斯軍隊在那裡的人數達到了 10 萬人，這是自接管克里米亞以來人數最多的一次。
莫斯科認為烏克蘭準備發動襲擊的建議具有煽動性，稱其不威脅任何人，並捍衛其在本國領土上隨心所欲部署軍隊的權利。
英國和德國回應了北約的警告。
“我們將與我們的民主國家站在一起，反對俄羅斯的惡意活動，”英國外交大臣利茲·特拉斯說。
德國外交部長海科·馬斯說：“北約對烏克蘭的支持是不間斷的……俄羅斯將不得不為任何形式的侵略付出高昂的代價。”
令西方擔憂的是，白俄羅斯週一宣布與俄羅斯在其與烏克蘭的邊界舉行聯合軍事演習。雖然也是前蘇聯加盟共和國，明斯克是莫斯科的盟友。
西方指責白俄羅斯總統亞歷山大·盧卡申科試圖通過將中東移民送往北約成員國波蘭、拉脫維亞和立陶宛的邊界來分裂歐盟，他警告明斯克不會在發生戰爭時袖手旁觀。
“很明顯，白俄羅斯會站在誰一邊，”他說，他指的是莫斯科，莫斯科的財政和政治支持幫助他在 2020 年 8 月度過了大規模的公眾抗議。
Attack on Ukraine would be costly, NATO warns Moscow
NATO foreign ministers will discuss a response to Russia's massing of troops along Ukraine's borders.
By REUTERS
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 11:19
Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 15:00
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a NATO Defence Ministers meeting at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, October 21, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS/PASCAL ROSSIGNOL)
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Russia would pay a high price for any new military aggression against Ukraine, NATO and the United States warned on Tuesday as the Western military alliance met to discuss Moscow's intentions for massing troops on the border of the former Soviet republic.
The West has already shown that it can wield economic, financial and political sanctions against Moscow, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of talks of the alliance's foreign ministers in the Latvian capital Riga.
"There will be a high price to pay for Russia if they once again use force against the independence of the nation, Ukraine," Stoltenberg said.
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to brief his 29 NATO counterparts on Washington's intelligence on what is going on at the alliance's eastern flank and in Ukraine, which is not a member.
"Any escalatory actions by Russia would be a great concern to the United States… and any renewed aggression would trigger serious consequences," he said at a news conference before the meeting.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (credit: REUTERS/MAXIM SHEMETOV)
"We will be consulting closely with NATO allies and partners in the days ahead… about whether there are other steps that we should take as an alliance to strengthen our defenses, strengthen our resilience, strengthen our capacity."
Kyiv's aspirations for integration with the West have triggered a standoff with Moscow.
'MALIGN ACTIVITY'
The Kremlin annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and then backed rebels fighting government troops in the east of the country. That conflict has killed 14,000 people, according to Kyiv, and is still simmering.
Two Russian troop build-ups this year on Ukraine's borders have alarmed the West. In May, Russian troops there numbered 100,000, the largest since its takeover of Crimea, Western officials say.
Moscow has dismissed as inflammatory Ukraine's suggestions that it is preparing for an attack, said it does not threaten anyone and defended its right to deploy troops on its own territory as it wishes.
Britain and Germany echoed the NATO warnings.
"We will stand with our fellow democracies against Russia's malign activity," said British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said: "NATO's support for Ukraine is unbroken… Russia would have to pay a high price for any sort of aggression."
Adding to Western concerns, Belarus on Monday announced joint military drills with Russia on its border with Ukraine. While also a former Soviet republic, Minsk is an ally of Moscow.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, whom the West accuses of seeking to divide the European Union by sending Middle Eastern migrants to the border of NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, warned Minsk would not sit on the sidelines in case of war.
"It is clear whose side Belarus will be on," he said, referring to Moscow, whose financial and political backing helped him weather mass public protests in August 2020.
英國軍情六處間諜首長警告稱：掌握人工智能的競賽正在進行
西方情報機構擔心北京可能在幾十年內主導所有關鍵的新興技術，尤其是人工智能、合成生物學和遺傳學。
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發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 02:07
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 06:51
需要注意的是，芯片設計、算法、軟件、人工智能、網絡等核心技術領域的培訓過程是漫長的，沒有捷徑可走。
（照片來源：HADAS PARUSH/FLASH90）
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英國外交間諜部門負責人周二警告說，中國和俄羅斯等西方的對手正在競相掌握人工智能，這可能會在未來十年內徹底改變地緣政治。
從蘭利和倫敦到莫斯科和北京，全世界的間諜都在努力應對技術的巨大進步，這些進步正在挑戰主導了數千年的傳統人類主導的間諜活動。
被稱為軍情六處的秘密情報局局長理查德·摩爾表示，量子工程、工程生物學、海量數據和計算機能力的進步構成了西方需要解決的威脅。
“我們的對手正在投入資金和雄心來掌握人工智能、量子計算和合成生物學，因為他們知道掌握這些技術會給他們帶來影響，”很少露面發表演講的摩爾將於週二表示。
2020 年成為軍情六處負責人的前外交官摩爾表示，未來十年的技術進步可能超過過去一個世紀的所有技術進步。
“作為一個社會，我們尚未內化這一嚴峻事實及其對全球地緣政治的潛在影響。但它是軍情六處的一個白熱化焦點，”他說。
西方間諜特別關注的是俄羅斯和中國的情報機構，它們急於利用一系列尖端技術的力量，有時比西方更快。
西方情報機構擔心北京可能在幾十年內主導所有關鍵的新興技術，尤其是人工智能、合成生物學和遺傳學。
中國在過去 40 年的經濟和軍事崛起被認為是近代最重要的地緣政治事件之一，與 1991 年結束冷戰的蘇聯垮台一樣。
軍情六處被小說家描繪為一些最令人難忘的虛構間諜的雇主，從約翰勒卡雷的喬治斯邁利到伊恩弗萊明的詹姆斯邦德，在海外開展業務，其任務是捍衛英國及其利益。
摩爾說，該服務必須改變以利用新技術。
“我們不能指望復制全球科技產業，所以我們必須利用它，”他會說。“我們必須變得更加開放，保守秘密。”
British MI6 spy chief warns: The race is on for mastery of AI
Western intelligence agencies fear Beijing could within decades dominate all of the key emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and genetics.
By REUTERS
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 02:07
Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 06:51
IT SHOULD BE noted that in the training process in the core technology areas, such as chip design, algorithms, software, artificial intelligence, and cyber, is long – there are no shortcuts.
(photo credit: HADAS PARUSH/FLASH90)
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The chief of Britain's foreign spy service warned on Tuesday that the West's adversaries such as China and Russia were racing to master artificial intelligence in a way which could revolutionize geopolitics over the next decade.
The world's spies, from Langley and London to Moscow and Beijing, are trying to grapple with seismic advances in technology that are challenging traditional human-led spying operations which dominated for thousands of years.
Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6, said quantum engineering, engineered biology, vast troves of data and advances in computer power posed a threat that needed to be addressed by the West.
"Our adversaries are pouring money and ambition into mastering artificial intelligence, quantum computing and synthetic biology, because they know that mastering these technologies will give them leverage," Moore, who rarely surfaces for speeches, will say on Tuesday.
A scene from the film ‘A Call to Spy.’ (credit: COURTESY SIGNATURE ENTERTAINMENT)
Moore, a former diplomat who became MI6 chief in 2020, said technological progress over the next decade could outstrip all tech progress over the past century.
"As a society, we have yet to internalize this stark fact and its potential impact on global geopolitics. But it is a white-hot focus for MI6," he said.
Of particular concern to the West's spies are Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies which have rushed to harness the power of a range of sophisticated technologies, sometimes at a faster pace than in the West.
Western intelligence agencies fear Beijing could within decades dominate all of the key emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and genetics.
China’s economic and military rise over the past 40 years is considered to be one of the most significant geopolitical events of recent times, alongside the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union which ended the Cold War.
MI6, depicted by novelists as the employer of some of the most memorable fictional spies from John le Carré’s George Smiley to Ian Fleming’s James Bond, operates overseas and is tasked with defending Britain and its interests.
Moore said the service would have to change to harness new technologies.
"We cannot hope to replicate the global tech industry, so we must tap into it," he will say. "We must become more open, to stay secret."
“如果解除制裁，以色列可能對伊朗採取單方面行動”
將可信的軍事威脅擺在桌面上的輕率呼籲；由於歐洲外交官懷疑伊朗的嚴肅性，談判陷入困境。
通過LAHAV哈爾科夫
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 19:55
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 22:17
外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 於 2021 年 11 月 15 日在以色列議會。
（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/耶路撒冷郵報）
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耶路撒冷官員警告世界大國，解除對伊朗的製裁可能導致以色列採取軍事行動，因為遏制伊斯蘭共和國核計劃的談判週二仍在繼續。
以色列警告說，如果美國解除制裁——同時根據 2015 年核協議的條款即將解除國際制裁——伊朗可能會在六個月內達到核門檻。
屆時，以色列可能會發現有必要採取單方面行動。
外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德呼籲世界加大對伊朗的威脅，以阻止其發展核武器。
拉皮德在與法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍會面時強調，以色列認為會談是德黑蘭在推進核計劃時試圖拖延的企圖，世界必須有一個 B 計劃。
外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德於 2021 年 11 月 29 日在倫敦舉行的以色列保守黨之友大會上發表講話（圖片來源：STUART MITCHELL）
“絕不能解除對伊朗的製裁，”拉皮德說。“必須加強制裁。必須將真正的軍事威脅擺在伊朗面前，因為這是阻止其成為核大國的唯一途徑。”
與馬克龍的會面是在拉皮德在與英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜的會晤中傳達了類似信息的第二天。國防部長本尼·甘茨也計劃下週飛往華盛頓討論核威脅。
在世界大國和伊朗於週一在維也納重新召開自 6 月以來的首次會談，就伊朗和美國重返 2015 年聯合全面行動計劃核協議進行談判之後，核談判週二繼續進行。
以色列反對 JCPOA，因為它沒有充分限制伊朗的鈾濃縮活動，事實上，在協議到期後進一步濃縮，即所謂的“日落條款”，為最終的核彈鋪平了道路。此外，JCPOA 沒有解決伊朗在該地區的其他惡意行動。
但以色列官員表示，比 JCPOA 更糟糕的是一項臨時協議，幾乎不會限制伊朗的核計劃。
耶路撒冷越來越擔心美國正在考慮這樣一項協議，一些外交官稱之為“以更少換更少”。它將讓美國取消一些制裁，以換取伊朗凍結——但不回滾——其核計劃，該計劃已經遠遠超出了 JCPOA 的限制。
外交部總幹事阿隆·烏什皮茲在接受 KAN 採訪時表示，這應該被稱為“以少取多”，因為伊朗將獲得現金流入，同時幾乎不承認任何東西。
以色列的外交努力主要集中在美國，以說服華盛頓不要解除制裁。
一位以色列高級外交消息人士本週表示，法國、德國和英國對以色列的信息表示同情，而俄羅斯一直很關注。雖然中國和以色列之間就伊朗核威脅進行了溝通，但北京方面的接受度較低。
參加維也納會談的E3外交官——法國、英國和德國——週二告訴路透社，如果伊朗本週不表明它正在認真對待談判，就會出現問題。
外交官們仍不清楚伊朗是否會在他們在 6 月份中斷的地方恢復談判，據他們估計，當時協議已完成 70%-80%。
雙方尚未解決伊朗用於濃縮鈾的先進離心機的問題。
至於有報導稱伊朗正朝著核武器所需的 90% 濃縮鈾的目標邁進，外交官們表示，這可能會危及會談，但警告稱，這些報導尚未得到證實。
外交官們說，達成協議是緊迫的，但他們不想人為地強加一個最後期限。
‘Israel could take unilateral action against Iran if sanctions lifted’
Lapid calls to put credible military threat on the table; negotiations in trouble as European diplomats doubt Iran’s seriousness.
By LAHAV HARKOV
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 19:55
Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 22:17
Foreign Minister Yair Lapid at the Knesset, November 15, 2021.
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
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Lifting sanctions on Iran could lead to military action by Israel, officials in Jerusalem warned world powers, as negotiations to curb the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program continued on Tuesday.
If the US lifts sanctions – along with international sanctions soon to be lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal – Iran could reach the nuclear threshold within six months, Israel has warned.
At that point, Israel could find it necessary to take unilateral action.
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Foreign Minister Yair Lapid called for the world to ramp up the threat to
Iran
in order to deter it from developing a nuclear weapon.
In a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Lapid emphasized that Israel views the talks as an attempt by Tehran to stall as it advances its nuclear program, and the world must have a plan B.
Foreign Minister Yair Lapid speaking during a Conservative Friends of Israel convention in London on November 29, 2021 (credit: STUART MITCHELL)
“Sanctions must not be lifted from Iran,” Lapid said. “Sanctions must be tightened. A real military threat must be put before Iran, because that is the only way to stop its race to become a nuclear power.”
The meeting with Macron came a day after Lapid relayed a similar message in a meeting with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Defense Minister Benny Gantz plans to fly to Washington next week to discuss the nuclear threat, as well.
Nuclear talks continued on Tuesday, after world powers and Iran reconvened in Vienna on Monday for the first time since June, to negotiate an Iranian and American return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal.
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Israel opposes the JCPOA because it insufficiently limited Iran’s uranium enrichment, and, in fact, legitimizes further enrichment after the agreement expires, the so-called “sunset clause,” which paves the way for an eventual nuclear bomb. In addition, the JCPOA did not address Iran’s other malign actions in the region.
But worse than the JCPOA, Israeli officials say, would be an interim deal that would barely restrict Iran’s nuclear program.
Jerusalem has grown increasingly concerned that the US is considering such an agreement, which some diplomats have called “less for less.” It would have the US lift some sanctions in exchange for Iran freezing – but not rolling back – its nuclear program, which has advanced far beyond the JCPOA’s restrictions.
Foreign Ministry Director-General Alon Ushpiz said in an interview with KAN that this should be called “more for less,” as Iran would be getting a cash influx while conceding almost nothing.
Israel’s diplomatic efforts are overwhelmingly focused on the US, in order to convince Washington not to lift sanctions.
France, Germany and the UK have been sympathetic to Israel’s messages, a senior Israeli diplomatic source said this week, and Russia has been attentive. While there has been communication between China and Israel about the Iranian nuclear threat, Beijing has been less receptive.
Diplomats in the Vienna talks from the E3 – France, Britain and Germany – told Reuters on Tuesday that there will be a problem if Iran does not show this week that it is taking the negotiations seriously.
It remained unclear to the diplomats whether Iran would resume talks where they left off in June, when, they estimated, an agreement was 70%-80% complete.
The sides had yet to resolve the matter of Iran’s advanced centrifuges, used to enrich uranium.
As for reports that Iran is moving toward 90% enrichment of uranium – the level required for a nuclear weapon – the diplomats said that could endanger the talks, but cautioned that those reports are not confirmed.
Reaching an agreement is urgent, the diplomats said, but they did not want to impose an artificial deadline.
伊朗希望從土庫曼斯坦和阿塞拜疆天然氣交易中獲得政治收益-分析
伊朗的目標是將自己定位為重要的天然氣供應國，並深化與阿塞拜疆和中亞的關係。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 15:59
2018 年 2 月 23 日，在土庫曼斯坦塞爾赫塔巴特鎮附近，將土庫曼斯坦通過阿富汗連接到巴基斯坦和印度的天然氣管道阿富汗段的 TAPI 項目建設工程啟動儀式上，工人們站在天然氣管道附近。
（照片來源：MARAT GURT / 路透社）
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伊朗週日在經濟合作組織第十五次會議期間與土庫曼斯坦和阿塞拜疆簽署了天然氣互換協議。“根據協議，每年將有 1.5 至 20 億立方米的天然氣從土庫曼斯坦（Sarakhs）進口到伊朗，並將通過伊朗輸電線路網絡輸送到阿塞拜疆（Astara），”伊朗塔斯尼姆新聞報導。
據伊朗媒體報導，美國之音證實，伊朗、阿塞拜疆和土庫曼斯坦簽署了一項每年高達 20 億立方米的三邊天然氣互換協議。“該協議於 11 月 28 日在土庫曼斯坦首都阿什哈巴德地區經濟峰會期間簽署。伊朗石油部長 Javad Owji 告訴伊朗官方媒體，根據互換協議——這將促進現有協議——伊朗將從土庫曼斯坦獲得天然氣並將相同數量的天然氣輸送到阿塞拜疆。”
新協議是在經濟合作組織峰會期間簽署的。報告稱，該組織包括所有五個中亞國家——土庫曼斯坦、哈薩克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和烏茲別克斯坦，以及阿富汗、阿塞拜疆、伊朗、巴基斯坦和土耳其。
伊朗在這裡的目標是將自己定位為重要的天然氣供應國，並加深與阿塞拜疆和中亞的聯繫。這對連接土庫曼斯坦、阿富汗、巴基斯坦和印度的計劃中的 TAPI 管道以及北高加索外高加索管道產生了影響。
報告指出，“伊朗與土庫曼斯坦的天然氣關係自 2016 年 12 月起暫停，但隨著該協議的達成，兩國能源關係向前邁進了一步。”
2021 年 5 月 24 日，在奧地利維也納，在冠狀病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行期間，伊朗國旗飄揚在國際原子能機構總部所在的聯合國辦公大樓前。（來源：LISI NIESNER/REUTERS）
這意味著“該協議的核心是一個重要的政治信息，可以實現伊朗成為該地區天然氣樞紐的計劃。”
現在伊朗認為這是一個信息，可以改變伊朗在該領域多年沒有取得多大成就之後在該地區的作用。“這一信息很重要，因為它可以促進伊朗下一步擴大與土庫曼斯坦的貿易，尤其是在天然氣領域。”
伊朗擔心 TAPI 管線和通過跨里海管道 (TCP) 的其他嘗試可能會使伊朗成為一個天然氣樞​​紐。“據專家稱，與土庫曼斯坦簽署天然氣互換協議是第十三屆政府石油部實施總體規劃的第一步，該規劃的延續將導致伊朗地區天然氣市場的這兩條競爭管道對接。”
伊朗媒體製作的地圖顯示，伊朗現在如何成為通過伊朗向南進入的各種天然氣管道和過境路線的一部分。“根據管道，土庫曼斯坦天然氣網絡連接里海和阿塞拜疆，旨在通過南部天然氣走廊將龐大的中亞天然氣資源轉移到歐洲能源市場。”
報告稱，土庫曼斯坦和阿塞拜疆之間的跨里海管道（TCP）將從里海連接到阿塞拜疆境內的 SCP 管道。然後，在 SCP 管道的末端，將添加一個連接到土耳其的 TANAP 管道。報告稱，這將使伊朗通過跨亞得里亞海管道（TAP）對土耳其和歐洲產生更多影響，包括希臘、阿爾巴尼亞和意大利。
“目前，南部天然氣走廊唯一缺失的一環是跨里海管道（TCP），由於里海在投資和經濟理由方面的法律糾紛，該管道已停滯多年。結果，世界第四大天然氣資源擁有國土庫曼斯坦尚未與歐洲大陸相連。”
這個很重要。它可以讓伊朗在中亞有更多發言權，並使伊朗更接近土耳其和阿塞拜疆。
“事實上，這項天然氣互換協議是伊朗與南部天然氣走廊兩個有影響力的國家恢復天然氣關係的第一步，進一步加強這些關係可能會永久中止跨里海項目的實施，”報告稱。“即使土庫曼斯坦和阿塞拜疆之間存在大量天然氣輸送，但隨著天然氣網絡的發展，伊朗也有可能參與到這場大博弈中。”
報告認為這非常重要。它著眼於最近塔利班對阿富汗的征服以及對該地區投資的必要性。“如前所述，土庫曼斯坦作為世界第四大天然氣資源持有國，在該地區的兩個重要天然氣運輸項目中發揮了重要作用。在伊朗與土庫曼斯坦關係惡化的陰影下設計的項目，目的是繞過伊朗。”
現在伊朗希望重新獲得土庫曼斯坦的青睞。伊朗新政府將此作為向東支點的一部分。
“土庫曼斯坦利用伊朗的天然氣網絡也有很多優勢，其中最明顯的是缺乏高成本建設新管道所需的投資。通過加强两國之間的關係並建立相互信任，伊朗可以將土庫曼斯坦這兩個嚴重且具有威脅性的地區天然氣市場競爭對手排除在外，”報告稱。
“因此，如果我們從這個角度來看伊朗和土庫曼斯坦的天然氣互換協議問題，我們會發現這個協議的問題不僅僅是幾百萬立方米的轉讓，這個協議應該作為改變區域天然氣市場的方程式向前邁進了一步。” 這可能會在未來幾年產生重大影響。
Iran looks to political gains from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan gas deal - analysis
Iran’s goal here is to position itself as a key gas supplier and deepen ties with Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 15:59
Workers stand near a gas pipe during the launching ceremony of construction work of the TAPI project on the Afghan section of a natural gas pipeline that will link Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India, near the town of Serhetabat, Turkmenistan February 23, 2018.
(photo credit: MARAT GURT / REUTERS)
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Iran has entered a gas swap agreement with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on Sunday on the sidelines of the 15th meeting of the Economic Cooperation Organization. “According to the agreement, 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters of gas will be imported to Iran annually from Turkmenistan (Sarakhs) and will be sent to Azerbaijan (Astara) through the Iran Transmission Line Network,” Tasnim News reported in Iran.
Voice of America confirmed that Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan had signed a trilateral gas swap deal for up to 2 billion cubic meters per year, based on Iranian media reports. “The agreement was signed on November 28 in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, on the sidelines of a regional economic summit. Under the swap deal – which boosts an existing agreement – Iran will receive gas from Turkmenistan and deliver the same amount to Azerbaijan, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji told Iranian state media.”
The new deal was signed on the sidelines of the summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization. The organization comprises all five Central Asian countries – Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey, the report says.
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Iran backtracks on previous monthsofnuclear talks
Iran
’s goal here is to position itself as a key gas supplier and deepen ties with Azerbaijan and Central Asia. This has ramifications for the planned TAPI pipeline that links Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India as well as the North Caucasus Transcaucasia Pipeline.
The report notes that “Iran's gas relations with Turkmenistan had been suspended since December 2016, but with the conclusion of this agreement, a step forward was taken in the energy relations between the two countries.”
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (credit: LISI NIESNER/ REUTERS)
This means that “an important political message lies at the heart of this agreement and can fulfill Iran's plan to become a gas hub in the region.”
Now Iran sees this as a message that can shift Iran’s role in the region after years of not accomplishing much in this sector. “This message is important because it could facilitate Iran's next steps in expanding trade with Turkmenistan, especially in the field of gas.”
Iran is concerned about the TAPI line and other attempts via the Trans-Caspian pipeline (TCP) that would have removed Iran from being a gas hub. “According to experts, concluding a gas swap agreement with Turkmenistan is the first step in implementing a master plan in the Ministry of Oil of the 13th government, the continuation of which will lead to the mating of these two rival pipelines of Iran's regional gas market.”
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Maps produced by Iranian media show how Iran can now be part of various gas pipelines and transit routes that would take a southern approach through Iran. “According to the pipeline, the Turkmen gas network connects the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and is designed to transfer the vast Central Asian gas resources to European energy markets through the Southern Gas Corridor.”
The Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan will be connected from the Caspian Sea to the SCP pipeline inside Azerbaijan, the report says. Then, at the end of the SCP pipeline, a connection will be added to the TANAP pipeline in Turkey. This would give Iran more influence over Turkey and Europe through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), including Greece, Albania and Italy, the report claims.
“Currently, the only missing link in the Southern Gas Corridor is the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP), which has been stalled for years due to legal disputes in the Caspian Sea over investment and economic justification. As a result, Turkmenistan, the fourth-largest holder of gas resources in the world, has not yet connected to the European continent.”
This is important. It could give Iran more say over Central Asia and bring Iran closer to Turkey and Azerbaijan.
“In fact, this gas swap agreement is Iran's first step to revive gas relations with the two influential countries in the Southern Gas Corridor, and further strengthening of these relations could permanently suspend the implementation of the Trans-Caspian project,” the report says. “Even if there is a large volume of gas transmission between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, it is possible that with the development of the gas network, Iran will be able to participate in this big game.”
The report sees this as very significant. It looks at the recent Taliban conquest of Afghanistan and the need for investment in the region. “As noted, Turkmenistan, as the fourth-largest holder of gas resources in the world, has played a significant role in two key gas transit projects in the region. Projects that were designed in the shadow of the darkening of Iran-Turkmenistan relations and with the aim of bypassing Iran.”
Now Iran wants to be back in good graces with Turkmenistan. The new Iranian government cares about this as part of a pivot to the east.
“The use of Iran's natural gas network for Turkmenistan also has many advantages, the most obvious of which is the lack of investment required for the construction of new pipelines at exorbitant costs. By strengthening relations between the two countries and building mutual trust, Iran could pull Turkmenistan, two serious and threatening regional gas market rivals, out of the equation,” the report says.
“As a result, if we look at the issue of the gas swap agreement between Iran and Turkmenistan from this perspective, we will find that the issue of this agreement is not just the transfer of several million cubic meters and this agreement should be used as a step forward to change the equations of the regional gas market.” This could have major ramifications in coming years.
真主黨仍在努力向黎巴嫩運送燃料——分析
這是一種讓真主黨控制黎巴嫩能源需求並幫助其控制黎巴嫩的黑手黨式的策略。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 15:21
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 30 日 18:58
在黎巴嫩馬爾賈永揮舞真主黨旗幟。
（圖片來源：AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS）
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伊朗媒體稱，將在冬季開始時向黎巴嫩分發伊朗柴油的“第二階段” 。這些說法將黎巴嫩真主黨及其領導人哈桑·納斯魯拉描述為在燃料危機期間幫助黎巴嫩。事實上，這是讓真主黨控制黎巴嫩的能源需求並幫助其控制黎巴嫩的黑手黨式的一種策略。伊朗希望通過“幫助”黎巴嫩而獲得影響力和名氣。
“黎巴嫩南部一個地區的市長 Hajj Ali al-Zain 在向 Al-Ahd News 網站談到真主黨計劃向數十萬家庭分發柴油時說，77 個城市正在實施該計劃，以提供為人民，尤其是居民提供供暖服務，”塔斯尼姆報導。
9 月，英國廣播公司報導說，真主黨還給黎巴嫩帶來了燃料。
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報告說：“分發柴油的過程也脫離了任何地區、宗派或政治考慮，每個地區的官員如果與真主黨聯繫以獲取燃料，將在進行必要的檢查後獲得服務。”
從某種意義上說，這裡揭示的是，在黎巴嫩議會 128 個席位中只有 12 個席位的真主黨現在不僅控制著一個平行的通信網絡，在黎巴嫩經營著自己的恐怖主義軍隊，執行黎巴嫩的外交政策，現在還控制著銀行業，該國的住房、超市和燃料。
2020 年 9 月 10 日，伊朗船隻 Khark 出現在伊朗的一個未公開地點。（來源：伊朗軍隊/WANA（西亞新聞社）通過路透社）
報告稱：“伊朗柴油應市政當局的要求分佈在 50 個加油站，相當於每天 400,000 升，基於此，人們可以以特定價格從 'Al Amaneh' 公司指定的加油站獲得柴油。”
真主黨正在貝卡谷地做一個供暖項目。報告稱，這家 Amaneh 公司現在正在向各地的人們分發燃料。
報告說：“市政府將不遺餘力地支持人民，並努力降低向人民分配燃料的成本，真主黨尋求支持貧困家庭。”
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真主黨想讓自己在這個冬天變得必不可少，跨越燃料需求，這樣每個人都會需要真主黨，它會變得更加強大，並從人民的苦難中獲益。
真主黨官員說：“根據哈桑納斯魯拉的建議，柴油將通過與村莊和城市加油站合作的市政當局分發給人民。”
據稱，一個月內將有數十萬家庭受益於該計劃。該報告接著列出了一些簽署購買伊朗燃料的城市。
“熟悉該項目的消息人士解釋說，真主黨向黎巴嫩家庭分發柴油的計劃是經過精心策劃的，應確保申請人僅將這種柴油用於家庭取暖。兩天前，黎巴嫩消息人士報導稱，黎巴嫩補貼柴油供應項目將在幾天后開始，該項目是真主黨解決該國問題倡議的一部分。”
真主黨偽裝成幫助療養院和孤兒院，並正在幫助大約 320 個城市“建造水井”。它還幫助供應 22 家政府醫院和 71 個消防隊。真主黨現在似乎在其控製網絡中擁有一個名為黎巴嫩的國家。
真主黨秘書長補充說：“一桶柴油將以低於100萬里拉的官方價格出售給黎巴嫩家庭，將以里拉支付，據我們估計，數十萬黎巴嫩家庭將從中受益。項目。”
Hezbollah still trying to deliver fuel to Lebanon - analysis
This is a ploy to let Hezbollah control Lebanon’s energy needs and help it in its mafia-like stranglehold over Lebanon.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 15:21
Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2021 18:58
WAVING THE Hezbollah flag in Marjayoun, Lebanon.
(photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
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Iranian media said the “second phase” of distribution of Iranian diesel fuel to Lebanon would occur as winter begins. The claims portray Lebanese Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah as helping Lebanon during a fuel crisis. In fact, this is a ploy to let Hezbollah control Lebanon’s energy needs and help it in its mafia-like stranglehold over Lebanon. Iran wants to gain influence and fame for “helping” Lebanon.
“Speaking to Al-Ahd News website about the Hezbollah plan to distribute diesel fuel to hundreds of thousands of families, Hajj Ali al-Zain, the mayor of a district in southern Lebanon, said that the plan was being pursued by 77 municipalities to provide heating services to the people, especially residents,” Tasnim reported.
In September, the BBC reported that Hezbollah also brought fuel to Lebanon.
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“The process of distributing diesel is also carried out away from any regional, sectarian or political considerations, and the officials of each region, if they contact Hezbollah for fuel, will receive the services after conducting the necessary checks,” the report says.
In a sense what is revealed here is that Hezbollah, which has only 12 of 128 of seats in Lebanon’s parliament, now not only controls a parallel communication network, runs its own terrorist army in Lebanon, conducts Lebanon’s foreign policy, and now controls banking, housing, supermarkets and fuel in the country.
The Iranian ship Khark is seen at an undisclosed location in Iran, September 10,2020. (credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
“Iranian diesel is distributed in 50 stations, equivalent to 400,000 liters per day at the request of municipalities, and based on this, people can receive diesel from stations designated by ‘Al Amaneh’ company at a specified price,” the report says.
Hezbollah is doing a heating project in the Bekaa Valley. This Amaneh company is now distributing fuel to people in various places, the report claims.
“Municipalities will spare no effort to support the people and try to reduce the cost of distributing fuel among the people, and Hezbollah seeks to support poor families,” the report says.
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Hezbollah wants make itself essential this winter, sitting astride fuel needs so everyone will need Hezbollah and it will become more powerful and profit from the suffering of the people.
Hezbollah officials said, “On the advice of Hassan Nasrallah, diesel would be distributed to the people through municipalities that cooperate with fuel stations in villages and cities.”
Supposedly, hundreds of thousands of families will benefit from the scheme within a month. The report goes on to list some municipalities that signed up to get Iranian fuel.
“Sources familiar with the project explained that Hezbollah’s plan to distribute diesel among Lebanese families was carefully planned and that it should be ensured that applicants use this diesel only for heating their homes. Two days ago, Lebanese sources reported that the Lebanese subsidized diesel supply project, which is part of Hezbollah’s initiative to solve the country’s problems, will begin in a few days.”
Hezbollah poses as helping nursing homes and orphanages and that it is helping some 320 municipalities “build water wells.” It also helps supply 22 government hospitals and 71 fire brigades. It seems Hezbollah now has a state named Lebanon within its network of control.
Hezbollah’s secretary-general added, “A barrel of diesel will be sold to Lebanese households for less than the official price of one million lira, will be paid in lira, and according to our estimates, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese households will benefit from this project.”
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