2021.12.02 國際新聞導讀-衣索比亞內戰持續政府軍目前小勝、美伊核武談判但暫無結果、聯合國UNDP工作換現金援助阿富汗、土耳其貨幣劇貶造成人民抗議

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.02 國際新聞導讀-衣索比亞內戰持續政府軍目前小勝、美伊核武談判但暫無結果、聯合國UNDP工作換現金援助阿富汗、土耳其貨幣劇貶造成人民抗議
埃塞俄比亞政府奪回聯合國世界遺產拉利貝拉
8 月初，與提格雷人民解放陣線結盟的部隊控制了阿姆哈拉地區的該鎮。
通過路透
埃塞俄比亞總理辦公室週三表示，埃塞俄比亞政府軍及其地區盟友已從提格雷軍隊手中奪回了聯合國世界遺產地拉利貝拉鎮，這是軍方表示已奪回的一系列城鎮中的最新一個。
同樣在周三，中國外交部長王毅抵達亞的斯亞貝巴，促使埃塞俄比亞外交部在一條推文中感謝他“無視該國安全局勢惡化的毫無根據的言論”。
這兩個事態發展對阿比·艾哈邁德總理的政府來說是一個推動，而王毅的訪問則尖銳地提醒了西方政府敦促埃塞俄比亞維持其他聯盟的停火。
佔領拉利貝拉是古代岩石鑿成的教堂的所在地，也是數百萬埃塞俄比亞東正教基督徒的聖地，對政府來說是一個重大的象徵性收穫。
8 月初，與提格雷人民解放陣線（TPLF）結盟的部隊控制了阿姆哈拉地區的該鎮。
2021 年 3 月 18 日，埃塞俄比亞提格雷地區 Adwa 鎮附近一座被燒毀的坦克（圖片來源：BAZ RATNER/REUTERS）
“歷史名鎮拉利貝拉已經解放，”總理阿比·艾哈邁德的辦公室在一條推文中說。
無法立即聯繫到 TPLF 發言人 Getachew Reda 就政府的說法發表評論。
當天早些時候，阿比的辦公室說，在地區部隊的支持下，政府軍從叛亂的提格雷戰士手中奪回了其他領土。
據報導，在阿姆哈拉取得勝利之前，週末有消息稱，在阿比離開首都亞的斯亞貝巴後，政府軍重新奪回了阿法爾地區的奇夫拉鎮，直接從前線進行戰鬥。
週三，阿比的辦公室表示，埃塞俄比亞士兵現在還控制了亞的斯亞貝巴東北 220 公里（136 英里）的 Shewa Robit 鎮以及其他八個城鎮和村莊。
軍隊在阿法爾和阿姆哈拉的收穫將是對提格雷軍隊的打擊，他們曾威脅要通過阿法拉向南推進並向首都進軍，或者向東前進並威脅到一條連接內陸埃塞俄比亞和該地區主要港口的公路。
聯邦政府與提格雷北部地區領導人之間長達一年的衝突已造成數千平民死亡，數百萬人被迫逃離家園，超過 900 萬人依賴糧食援助。
拉利貝拉西南 25 公里（15 英里）處的 Gragne Amba 村的一名居民說，提格雷軍隊已於週二離開。
路透社採訪了最初住在拉利貝拉並逃離戰鬥的兩個人。他們說親戚打來電話，說提格雷軍隊已經離開了這個鎮；路透社無法聯繫到鎮上的任何人來確認他們的賬戶。
外交接觸
美國、歐洲國家和其他國家正在鼓勵政府和提格雷軍隊宣布停火，允許人道主義援助進入提格雷北部地區。
埃塞俄比亞是非洲第二大國和地區外交重量級人物，曾是尋求打擊伊斯蘭極端主義的西方安全部隊的盟友。但隨著對沖突期間發生的嚴重侵犯人權的指控越來越多，兩國關係惡化。
美國負責非洲事務的助理國務卿莫莉·菲 (Molly Phee) 週三表示，美國暫緩就是否發生暴行做出公開決定，同時等待談判是否取得進展。
雙方相互指責對方犯下暴行。雙方都否認了這些指控。
中國外交部長王毅的訪問突顯了埃塞俄比亞拒絕接受西方國家所說的干涉，其中許多國家已下令其公民立即離開埃塞俄比亞。
“中國……反對外部勢力企圖將其政治利益強加於埃塞內政，”埃塞外交部援引王毅的話說。
Ethiopian government recaptures Lalibela, a UN World Heritage site
Forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front had taken control of the town, in the Amhara region, in early August.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 19:07
Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2021 23:01
A general view of the town of Lalibela after the decline in tourism due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Lalibela, Ethiopia, May 2, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS/TIKSA NEGERI)
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Ethiopian government forces and their regional allies have recaptured the town of Lalibela, a United Nations World Heritage Site, from Tigrayan forces, the prime minister's office said on Wednesday, the latest in a string of towns the military says it has retaken.
Also on Wednesday, China's foreign minister Wang Yi arrived in Addis Ababa, prompting Ethiopia's foreign ministry to thank him in a tweet for "disregarding the unfounded rhetoric on the deteriorating security situations in the country."
The twin developments are a boost for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, and Wang's visit served as a pointed reminder to Western governments pressing for a ceasefire that Ethiopia maintains other alliances.
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The capture of Lalibela, home to ancient rock-hewn churches and a holy site for millions of Ethiopian Orthodox Christians, is a significant symbolic gain for the government.
Forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had taken control of the town, in the Amhara region, in early August.
A burned tank stands near the town of Adwa, Tigray region, Ethiopia, March 18, 2021 (credit: BAZ RATNER/REUTERS)
"The historic town of Lalibela has been liberated," Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's office said in a tweet.
TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda could not be immediately reached for comment on the government's claims.
Earlier in the day, Abiy's office said government soldiers supported by regional forces had recaptured other territory from rebellious Tigrayan fighters.
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The reported gains in Amhara followed news over the weekend that government troops had retaken Chifra town in Afar region after Abiy left the capital Addis Ababa to direct fighting from the frontlines.
On Wednesday, Abiy's office said Ethiopian soldiers also now controlled the town of Shewa Robit, 220 km (136 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa, and eight other towns and villages.
Gains by the military in Afar and Amhara would be a blow to Tigrayan forces, who had threatened to either advance further southwards through Amhara and march on the capital, or head eastwards and threaten a road linking landlocked Ethiopia to the region's main port.
The year-old conflict between the federal government and the leadership of the northern region of Tigray has killed thousands of civilians, forced millions to flee their homes, and made more than 9 million people dependent on food aid.
A resident in the village of Gragne Amba, 25 km (15 miles) southwest of Lalibela, said Tigrayan forces had left it on Tuesday.
Reuters spoke to two people who originally lived in Lalibela and fled the fighting. They said relatives had called and said Tigrayan forces had left the town; Reuters was unable to reach anyone in the town to confirm their accounts.
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The United States, European nations and others are encouraging the government and Tigrayan forces to declare a ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid to enter the northern region of Tigray.
Ethiopia, Africa's second-largest nation and a regional diplomatic heavyweight, was once an ally for Western security forces seeking to counter Islamist extremism. But relations have soured amid increasing allegations of major human rights abuses committed during the conflict.
The US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee said on Wednesday that the United States was holding off on making a public determination on whether atrocities have been committed while it waits to see if talks make progress.
Both sides accuse each other of committing atrocities. Both sides have denied the allegations.
Chinese foreign minister Wang's visit served to underscore Ethiopia's rejection of what it describes as interference by Western nations, many of whom have ordered their citizens to leave Ethiopia immediately.
"China … opposes attempts by external forces to impose their political interest in the domestic affairs of Ethiopia," Ethiopia's foreign ministry quoted Wang as saying.
安樂死協會只接受接種疫苗和康復者
瑞士安樂死協會宣布，只有接種疫苗的人才能獲得死亡援助。
作者：MARVIN ZIEGELE/耶路撒冷郵報特別報導
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 17:25
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 17:26
2021 年 2 月 24 日，在俄羅斯聖彼得堡一家購物中心的疫苗接種中心進行注射之前，一名醫務人員拿著裝有針對冠狀病毒病 (COVID-19) 的人造衛星 V (Gam-COVID-Vac) 疫苗的注射器。
（圖片來源：路透社）
廣告
總部位於蘇黎世的協助死亡協會 (Verein Sterbehilfe) 於 11 月宣布，未來，只有已接種疫苗和康復的會員才能接受協助自殺。
在德國，任何人都不允許對一個願意去死的人進行注射死刑——禁止按需殺人。因此，近年來，德國的許多身患絕症的人藉此機會，在安樂死組織之一的幫助下，在瑞士實現了他們臨終的心願。
此外，在與協會員工會面之前，身患絕症的人還必須接受冠狀病毒檢測。
瑞士國旗（來源：REUTERS）
來自 Jpost 的最新文章
"
安樂死
和對我們願意死亡的成員的自由責任的準備檢查需要人類親近。然而，人類親近是冠狀病毒傳播的條件和溫床。截至今天，2G 規則適用於我們的協會，並輔以情境措施，例如在封閉房間內遭遇前的快速測試，”該協會表示。
在德國，當前的冠狀病毒政策稱為 2G，只允許接種疫苗或康復的人進入建築物或參加公共活動。
Euthanasia association accepts only vaccinated and convalescents
The euthanasia association in Switzerland announced that only vaccinated persons will be granted assistance in dying.
By MARVIN ZIEGELE/SPECIAL TO THE JERUSALEM POST
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 17:25
Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2021 17:26
A medical worker holds a syringe with Sputnik V (Gam-COVID-Vac) vaccine against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) before administering an injection at a vaccination centre in a shopping mall in Saint Petersburg, Russia February 24, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
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The Zurich-based Association for Assisted Dying (Verein Sterbehilfe) announced in November that, in the future, only vaccinated and recovered members will be admitted to assisted suicide.
In Germany, no one is allowed to administer a lethal injection to a person who is willing to die - killing on demand is forbidden. Many terminally ill people in Germany have therefore taken the opportunity in recent years to fulfill their dying wish in Switzerland with the help of one of the euthanasia organizations.
Furthermore, the terminally ill would also have to be tested for the coronavirus before an encounter with employees of the association.
Swiss flag (credit: REUTERS)
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"
Euthanasia
and the preparatory examination of the free responsibility of our members willing to die require human closeness. Human proximity, however, is a condition and breeding ground for the transmission of the Coronavirus. As of today, the 2G rule applies in our association, supplemented by situational measures, such as rapid tests before encounters in closed rooms," stated the association.
In Germany, the current coronavirus policy, called 2G, allows only vaccinated or recovered people to enter buildings or participate in public events.
伊朗開始使用先進的離心機進行濃縮，同時在維也納會談中停滯不前
世界大國與伊朗就恢復 2015 年核協議的談判在五個多月以來首次在維也納恢復。
通過LAHAV哈爾科夫
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 15:25
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 19:55
2021 年 11 月 29 日，歐洲對外行動署 (EEAS) 副秘書長恩里克·莫拉 (Enrique Mora) 和伊朗首席核談判代表阿里·巴蓋里·卡尼 (Ali Bagheri Kani) 在奧地利維也納等待 JCPOA 聯合委員會會議的開始。
（圖片來源：歐盟駐維也納代表團/通過路透社的講義）
廣告
國際原子能機構週三表示，伊朗採取進一步措施推進其核計劃，因為伊朗外交官表示，他們不會急於在維也納與世界大國進行談判，以限制其鈾濃縮活動。
國際原子能機構報告說，伊朗在其埋在山中的福爾多設施開始使用先進的離心機將鈾濃縮至 20% 的純度。
國際原子能機構表示，伊朗將濃縮至 5% 的六氟化鈾原料輸送到福爾多的 166 台 IR-6 離心機的級聯或集群中，以進一步將其濃縮至 20%。
此舉可能會加劇旨在恢復伊朗和美國重返 2015 年聯合全面行動計劃核協議的談判的緊張局勢。
本週與英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜和法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍會面時，包括外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德在內的以色列官員警告稱，伊朗正試圖拖延，以便繼續推進其鈾濃縮活動，直至達成一項限制鈾濃縮的協議。這無關緊要。
就此而言，一名伊朗外交官週三表示，儘管歐洲人敦促伊朗在未來幾天表現出其嚴肅性，但他的團隊不會在核談判的“人為最後期限”內開展工作。
伊朗談判小組的一名消息人士告訴伊朗，伊朗“隨時準備在需要時繼續進行密集談判，[但]它不會僅僅為了人為的最後期限或時間表而犧牲其原則性要求和伊朗國家的權利”。國家媒體 星期三新聞電視台。
“伊斯蘭共和國非常認真地來到維也納，並以透明的要求和建議進行談判，”消息人士說。
伊朗和世界大國周一在維也納重新召開會議，五個多月以來首次就恢復遵守 JCPOA 進行談判，週二討論解除美國製裁，並於週三召開核問題工作組會議。美國隊和伊朗隊在科堡宮的不同房間裡，因為伊朗拒絕與美國直接談判。
在 E3 的外交官——法國、英國和德國——向記者通報說，如果伊朗本週沒有表明它正在認真對待談判，那麼伊朗關於談判的必要時間是必要的。
不過，外交官們也表示，他們不想人為地設定最後期限。
至於有報導稱伊朗正朝著核武器所需的 90% 濃縮鈾的目標邁進，外交官們表示，這可能會危及會談，但警告稱，這些報導尚未得到證實。
外交官們仍不清楚伊朗是否會在他們在 6 月份中斷的地方恢復談判，據他們估計，當時協議已完成 70-80%。
伊朗最高談判代表阿里·巴蓋里 (Ali Bagheri) 就談判將繼續進行的點發表了模棱兩可的評論。
“草案有待談判，”巴蓋里週二告訴伊朗官方媒體。“因此，除非一切都已達成一致，否則什麼都不會達成一致。在此基礎上，對六輪中發生的所有討論進行總結並進行談判。在今天的會議上，各方也都承認了這一點。”
以色列反對 JCPOA，因為它沒有充分限制伊朗的鈾濃縮活動，事實上，在協議到期後，進一步的濃縮活動合法化，這為最終的核彈鋪平了道路。此外，JCPOA 沒有解決伊朗在該地區的其他惡意行動。
但以色列官員表示，比 JCPOA 更糟糕的是一項臨時協議，幾乎不會限制伊朗的核計劃。伊朗一再表示，它只會通過談判解除所有 JCPOA 後美國的製裁，而不是核問題。
因此，耶路撒冷越來越擔心美國正在考慮這樣一項協議，一些外交官稱之為“以少取少”，讓美國取消一些制裁，以換取伊朗凍結——而不是回滾——其核計劃。已經遠遠超出了 JCPOA 的限制。
外交部總幹事阿隆·烏什皮茲在接受 KAN 採訪時表示，這應該被稱為“以少取多”，因為伊朗將獲得現金流入，同時幾乎不承認任何東西。
耶路撒冷的外交消息人士本週警告說，如果美國解除制裁——同時根據 2015 年核協議的條款即將解除國際制裁——伊朗可能會在六個月內達到核門檻。
屆時，以色列可能會發現有必要採取單方面行動。
週二在巴黎，拉皮德呼籲世界在談判失敗時制定一個 B 計劃。
“絕不能解除對伊朗的製裁，”拉皮德說。“必須加強制裁。必須將真正的軍事威脅擺在伊朗面前，因為這是阻止其成為核大國的唯一途徑。”
國防部長本尼·甘茨計劃下週飛往華盛頓，與美國官員也討論核威脅。
路透社為本報告做出了貢獻。
Iran starts enriching with advanced centrifuges while stalling in Vienna talks
Negotiations between world powers and Iran to restore the 2015 nuclear deal resumed in Vienna for the first time in over five months.
By LAHAV HARKOV
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 15:25
Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2021 19:55
Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria November 29, 2021.
(photo credit: EU DELEGATION IN VIENNA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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Iran took further steps to advance its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Wednesday, as Iranian diplomats said they won’t rush on negotiations with world powers in Vienna to limit its uranium enrichment.
The IAEA reported that Iran started the process of enriching uranium to 20% purity with advanced centrifuges at its Fordow facility, which is buried inside a mountain.
Iran fed uranium hexafluoride feedstock enriched to up to 5% into a cascade, or cluster, of 166 IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow to enrich it further to up to 20%, the IAEA stated.
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The move is likely to raise tensions in the negotiations intended to restore the return of Iran and the US to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal.
Israeli officials, including Foreign Minister
Yair Lapid
in meetings with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron this week, have warned that Iran is trying to stall so that it can continue to advance its uranium enrichment to the point at which an agreement restricting it would be irrelevant.
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (credit: LISI NIESNER/ REUTERS)
In that vein, an Iranian diplomat said on Wednesday that his team will not work under “artificial deadlines” in nuclear talks even as Europeans have pressed for the Islamic Republic to demonstrate its seriousness in the coming days.
Iran, “stands prepared to continue intensive talks as long as needed, [but] it will not be ready to sacrifice its principled demands and the Iranian nation’s rights for mere artificial deadlines or time tables,” a source on Iran’s negotiating team source told Iranian state media Press TV on Wednesday.
“The Islamic Republic has come to Vienna with full seriousness and is negotiating with transparent demands and proposals,” the source stated.
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Iran and world powers reconvened in Vienna on Monday to negotiate a return to compliance with the JCPOA for the first time in over five months, with discussions about lifting US sanctions on Tuesday and for a working group on nuclear issues to meet Wednesday. The American and Iranian teams were in separate rooms in Palais Coburg, because Iran refuses to negotiate directly with the US.
Iranian remarks about negotiating as long as necessary came after diplomats from the E3 – France, Britain and Germany – briefed reporters that there will be a problem if Iran does not show that it is taking the negotiations seriously this week.
However, the diplomats also said that they did not want to impose an artificial deadline.
As for reports that Iran is moving towards 90% enrichment of uranium, the level required for a nuclear weapon, the diplomats said that could endanger the talks, but cautioned that those reports are not confirmed.
It remained unclear to the diplomats whether Iran would resume talks where they left off in June, when, they estimated, an agreement was 70-80% complete.
Iran’s top negotiator Ali Bagheri made ambiguous comments on the point from which talks would continue.
“Drafts are subject to negotiation,” Bagheri told Iranian state media on Tuesday. “Therefore, nothing is agreed on unless everything has been agreed on. On that basis, all discussions that took place in the six rounds are summarized and are subject to negotiations. This was admitted by all parties in today’s meeting as well.”
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Israel opposes the JCPOA because it insufficiently limited Iran’s uranium enrichment, and, in fact, legitimizes further enrichment after the agreement expires, which paves the way for an eventual nuclear bomb. In addition, the JCPOA did not address Iran’s other malign actions in the region.
But worse than the JCPOA, Israeli officials say, would be an interim deal that would barely restrict Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly said it will only negotiate the lifting of all post-JCPOA US sanctions and not the nuclear issue.
As such, Jerusalem has grown increasingly concerned that the US is considering such an agreement, which some diplomats have called “less for less,” to have the US lift some sanctions in exchange for Iran freezing – not rolling back – its nuclear program, which has advanced far beyond the JCPOA’s restrictions.
Foreign Ministry Director-General Alon Ushpiz said in an interview with KAN that this should be called “more for less,” as Iran would be getting a cash influx while conceding almost nothing.
Diplomatic sources in Jerusalem warned this week that if the US lifts sanctions – along with international sanctions soon to be lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal – Iran could reach the nuclear threshold within six months.
At that point, Israel could find it necessary to take unilateral action.
In Paris on Tuesday, Lapid called for the world to have a plan B if negotiations fail.
“Sanctions must not be lifted from Iran,” Lapid said. “Sanctions must be tightened. A real military threat must be put before Iran, because that is the only way to stop its race to become a nuclear power.”
Defense Minister Benny Gantz plans to fly to Washington next week to discuss the nuclear threat with American officials as well.
Reuters contributed to this report.
儘管戰爭陰雲密布，但烏克蘭和俄羅斯不太可能發生衝突-分析
俄羅斯喜歡玩弄歐洲，並表明它可以在國外保衛它的前身。為什麼從莫斯科到華盛頓的任何人都希望發生實際衝突似乎有些牽強。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 15:36
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 16:58
在烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部於 2021 年 11 月 17 日發布的這張講義圖片中，烏克蘭武裝部隊的坦克在烏克蘭赫爾鬆地區與俄羅斯吞併的克里米亞邊界附近的一個訓練場進行軍事演習。
（圖片來源：烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部新聞處/路透社提供的資料）
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俄羅斯總統普京本週警告稱，如果北約成員國越過“紅線” ，俄羅斯將做出回應。與此同時，美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯警告俄羅斯不要侵略烏克蘭，聲稱任何侵略都會引發“嚴重後果”。美國和英國都向莫斯科發出警告。布林肯還向 29 個北約成員國簡要介紹了美國關於烏克蘭緊張局勢的情報。
西方國家確信，在與烏克蘭的邊界上有大量俄羅斯軍隊集結。據英國廣播公司報導，俄羅斯擔心烏克蘭可能加入北約，對美國在黑海的海空活動以及烏克蘭購買土耳其無人機感到惱火。
俄羅斯塔斯社媒體週三發表了一篇文章，指出北約秘書長延斯斯托爾滕貝格最近對該組織的評論。“我們必須了解北約盟友（例如拉脫維亞、波蘭和羅馬尼亞）與親密且高度重視的伙伴（例如）烏克蘭之間的區別。對於後者，我們提供支持、培訓能力和設備；對於盟友，我們根據第五條獲得安全保證，”當被問及北約可以向基輔提供什麼樣的援助時，他在拉脫維亞告訴記者，以防俄羅斯所謂的軍事侵略。
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俄羅斯媒體指出，這是北約領導人在過去五天裡第六次就“俄羅斯在與烏克蘭接壤的邊境進行軍事集結”發表評論。
“斯托爾滕貝格呼籲透明化和緩和局勢，警告如果發生軍事侵略，北約將使莫斯科付出高昂代價。然而，他拒絕透露聯盟是否考慮採取任何軍事措施來支持基輔。” 就俄羅斯而言，它聲稱烏克蘭可能是侵略者，從而引發了緊張局勢。
在烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部 11 月 17 日發布的這張講義圖片中，烏克蘭武裝部隊的一名軍人在烏克蘭赫爾鬆地區與俄羅斯吞併的克里米亞邊境附近的一個訓練場參加軍事演習， 2021.（來源：烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部新聞處/路透社提供的資料）
這意味著存在一種自我實現的預言。雖然雙方都指責對方加劇了新的緊張局勢——甚至是針對烏克蘭領導人的政變陰謀——但外交強硬的談話實際上可能會導致當地的衝突。
應該記得，在 2013-2014 年，烏克蘭發生了一場危機，導致親俄總統維克多·亞努科維奇在大規模抗議和衝突後逃離首都。2014年2月出逃後，烏克蘭局勢一片混亂。
親俄分裂分子佔領了烏克蘭東部地區，據廣泛報導，他們得到了俄羅斯的秘密支持。俄羅斯於 2014 年 3 月吞併了克里米亞，從烏克蘭奪取了另一個關鍵領土。基輔的恐懼更糟。
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然而，親俄的推進被阻止，不久分離主義分子及其在莫斯科的支持者被趕出一些地區，包括斯洛維揚斯克——儘管頓涅茨克機場被摧毀。
最終，戰線變硬，到 2015 年，烏克蘭東部陷入僵局。緊張局勢仍在繼續。烏克蘭將針對分裂地區和前線的戰鬥視為“反恐”行動。
在俄羅斯的支持下，出現了兩個分離的頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克共和國。這與高加索地區存在小型準國家的情況類似，包括南奧塞斯提亞和阿布哈茲。
緊張局勢仍在繼續，前線經常發生衝突。然而，坦克和大部隊不應該集中在前線附近。俄羅斯軍隊的集中地被認為是在數百公里之外，但考慮到所涉及的距離很遠，這被認為是相對靠近前線的。
據認為，在從邊境行軍的一兩天內，包括坦克在內的大約 100,000 名俄羅斯軍隊被集結。
一張圖片來自 Maxar 技術並與媒體分享。它顯示了白俄羅斯附近城鎮葉爾尼亞附近的裝甲部隊。“這些部隊於 9 月下旬開始從他們通常駐紮的俄羅斯其他地區轉移，其中包括精銳的第 1 近衛坦克軍。”
從葉利尼亞搬到烏克蘭需要時間，而且這裡的高速公路不會向南行駛。這些部隊可能必須穿越白俄羅斯才能降落在烏克蘭通往基輔的道路上。據報導，更令人擔憂的是庫爾斯克和布良斯克的集中，這將使裝甲部隊在一兩天內對哈爾科夫發動襲擊。
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在這裡，他們可以通過打擊烏克蘭的側翼來支持分離主義共和國。但是像這樣部署大部隊需要時間——不僅僅是通過鐵路或卡車移動坦克，而是將它們投入戰場以穿越邊境。
所有這些似乎都有些牽強。俄羅斯喜歡調動軍事單位，並呼籲進行重大演習和演習以炫耀其實力。在過去的幾十年裡，普京徹底改變了俄羅斯的軍隊，尤其是某些部隊。這包括為俄羅斯空降部隊提供新材料，預計到今年年底將達到 75% 的部隊。
烏克蘭也在對其部隊進行現代化改造。美國前政府批准並交付了 210 枚標槍反坦克導彈和 37 個發射器的銷售。烏克蘭已開始使用其新設備進行鑽探，路透社上週表示，它在白俄羅斯邊境附近開展了一項特別行動。
與此同時，白俄羅斯表示將在與烏克蘭的衝突中支持俄羅斯。最近，歐洲指責它通過將移民推向波蘭邊境，對歐洲發動“混合戰爭”。
自由歐洲電台報導稱，“白俄羅斯的獨裁領導人亞歷山大·盧卡申科曾表示，如果北約將類似的美國設備從德國轉移到東歐，白俄羅斯願意接納俄羅斯的核武器。”
鑑於所有這些緊張局勢，意外衝突可能會導致更大的衝突。烏克蘭的問題在於，儘管其部隊已經現代化，但它仍然只擁有少量新型無人機和反坦克導彈。這不是阻止俄羅斯龐大軍隊的嚴重力量。
冬天也開始了。現在爭奪的地區過去曾發生過大規模的戰鬥。例如，庫爾斯克戰役覆蓋了現在俄羅斯和烏克蘭邊界的大片區域，涉及數千輛坦克和數百萬士兵。今天可能導致的衝突不會像庫爾斯克那樣。
真正的衝突是多層次的。白俄羅斯希望表現出與莫斯科的關係，並不斷挑起與歐洲的問題。普京希望北約遠離烏克蘭；烏克蘭希望吸引北約加入。美國希望在離開阿富汗後支持其夥伴和盟國。
每個人都在扮演自己的角色。然而，沒有人想要真正的衝突。白俄羅斯政權冒著危機的風險，可能會發現自己處於危險之中。烏克蘭不想在前線受挫，因為它更願意繼續努力實現軍事現代化。俄羅斯喜歡玩弄歐洲，並表明它可以捍衛自己以前的財產。
從莫斯科到華盛頓，任何人都希望發生實際衝突似乎有些牽強。西方會在冬天支持這樣的衝突似乎更加牽強。戰爭的謠言完全有可能是雙方設計的，目的是分散注意力和威懾。如果是這樣的話，它可能只是吹噓，但有些人可以從吹噓中受益。
例如，土耳其無人機的故事是安卡拉從表面上向烏克蘭提供關鍵軍事裝備中獲益的一種方式，即使無人機數量很少而且實際上並沒有做太多。冷靜的頭腦應該佔上風——但如果他們不這樣做，那麼邊境某處的一個小事件可能會導致更大的危機。
Despite war clouds, a Ukraine-Russia clash is unlikely - analysis
Russia likes to toy with Europe and show that it can defend its former near abroad. Why anyone from Moscow to Washington would want an actual conflict appears far-fetched.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 15:36
Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2021 16:58
Tanks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces drive during military drills at a training ground near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea in Kherson region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine press service November 17, 2021.
(photo credit: PRESS SERVICE OF GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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Russian President Vladimir Putin warned this week that Russia would respond if NATO-member countries crossed a “redline.” Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Russia against aggression in Ukraine, claiming any aggression would trigger “serious consequences.” The US and UK have both warned Moscow. Blinken also briefed the 29 NATO members on US intelligence regarding tensions in Ukraine.
Western countries are convinced that there is a large build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. According to BBC reports, Russia is concerned that Ukraine might join NATO and it is annoyed about US naval and air activity in the Black Sea, as well as Ukraine buying Turkish drones.
Russia’s TASS media had an article on Wednesday that noted NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent comments about the organization. “We must understand the difference between a NATO ally, for example Latvia, Poland and Romania, and a close and highly valued partner [such as] Ukraine. For the latter we provide support, training capacity and equipment; for allies, we have security guarantees under Article Five,” he told reporters in Latvia when asked what kind of assistance NATO could provide to Kyiv in case of Russia’s alleged military aggression.
Russian media noted this was the sixth time in the last five days that NATO’s leader had made comments about “Russia’s alleged military build-up on the border with Ukraine.
“Stoltenberg called for transparency and de-escalation, warning that in case of military aggression, NATO would make Moscow pay a high price. However, he declined to say if the alliance was considering taking any military steps to support Kyiv.” Russia, for its part, claims that Ukraine might be the aggressive one, stoking tensions.
A serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces takes part in military drills at a training ground near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea in Kherson region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine press service November 17, 2021. (credit: PRESS SERVICE OF GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
What this means is that there is a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. While each side accuses the other of raising new tensions – even coup plots against Ukraine’s leader – the diplomatic tough talk could actually result in clashes on the ground.
IT SHOULD be recalled that in 2013-2014, there was a crisis in Ukraine that resulted in the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych fleeing the capital after massive protests and clashes. After he fled in February 2014, Ukraine faced a chaotic situation.
Pro-Russian separatists took over areas in eastern Ukraine and, according to widespread reports, they had covert Russian backing. Russia annexed the Crimea in March 2014, taking from Ukraine another key territory. Fears in Kyiv were that worse was to come.
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However, the pro-Russian advance was halted and soon the separatists and their backers in Moscow were pushed out of some areas, including Sloviansk – though Donetsk airport was destroyed.
Eventually, the battle lines hardened, and by 2015 there was a stalemate in eastern Ukraine. Tensions continued. Ukraine views the battles against separatist areas and the frontline as an “anti-terrorist” operation.
Two breakaway separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have emerged, backed by Russia. This is similar to situations in the Caucasus where small quasi-states exist, including South Ossestia and Abkhazia.
The tensions continued and there are frequent clashes on the frontline. However, tanks and large forces are not supposed to be concentrated near the front. Russian troop concentrations are thought to be hundreds of kilometers away, but considering the vast distances involved, this is seen as relatively close to the frontline.
It is thought that some 100,000 Russian troops, including tanks, are amassed within a day or two’s march from the border.
ONE IMAGE making the rounds comes from Maxar technologies and was shared with media. It shows armored units near Yelnya, a town near Belarus. “The units, which began moving in late September from other areas of Russia where they are normally based, include the elite 1st Guards Tank Army.”
To move from Yelnya to Ukraine would take time and the highways here do not go south. The units would probably have to traverse Belarus to land on Ukraine’s approaches to Kyiv. Of more concern, say reports, are concentrations at Kursk and Bryansk, which would put the armored units within a day or two of a strike at Kharkiv.
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Here they could provide support for the separatist republics by landing a blow on Ukraine’s flank. But deploying large forces like this takes time – not just moving the tanks by rail or truck, but putting them into the field to cross the frontier.
All of this seems far fetched. Russia likes to move military units around and call out major drills and exercises to show off its power. Putin has revolutionized Russia’s army over the last decades, especially certain units. This includes providing the Russian Airborne Force with new materials that are supposed to reach 75% of the units by the end of this year.
Ukraine is also modernizing its forces. The former US administration approved and delivered the sale of 210 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 37 launchers. Ukraine has begun drilling with its new equipment and Reuters said last week it launched a special operation near the border with Belarus.
Meanwhile, Belarus has indicated it would back Russia in a conflict with Ukraine. It was recently accused by Europe of using a “hybrid war” against Europe by pushing migrants toward the Polish border.
Radio Free Europe reported that “Belarus’s authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has said that his country would be willing to host Russian nuclear weapons if NATO moved similar US equipment from Germany to Eastern Europe.”
GIVEN ALL these tensions it’s possible that an unintended clash could lead to a larger conflict. The problem for Ukraine is that despite modernizing its forces, it still possesses only a handful of new drones and anti-tank missiles. This is not a serious force to stop a large Russian army.
Winter is also setting in. The areas that are now contested have seen massive battles in the past. The battle of Kursk, for instance, covered a huge area of what is now the Russia-Ukraine border and involved thousands of tanks and millions of soldiers. Today the conflict that might result would not be like Kursk.
The real conflict appears multi-layered. Belarus wants to appear relevant to Moscow and keeps stirring up problems with Europe. Putin wants NATO to stay out of Ukraine; Ukraine wants to draw NATO in. The US wants to stand by its partners and allies after leaving Afghanistan.
Everyone is playing their role. However, no one wants a real conflict. The Belarus regime, in risking a crisis, could find itself imperiled. Ukraine doesn’t want a setback on the frontline, as it prefers to continue its efforts at military modernization. Russia likes to toy with Europe and show that it can defend its former possessions.
That anyone from Moscow to Washington would want an actual conflict appears far-fetched. That the West would back such a conflict in the winter seems even more far-fetched. It’s entirely possible that the rumors of war are designed, by both sides, to distract and to deter. If that’s the case, it could just be bluster, but some can benefit from bluster.
The story of Turkey’s drones, for instance, is a way for Ankara to benefit from appearing to supply key military equipment to Ukraine, even if the drones are few in number and not actually doing much. Cool heads should prevail – but if they don’t, then a small incident somewhere on the border could lead to a larger crisis.
普京製定入侵烏克蘭的計劃 - 布林肯
美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯週三表示，有證據表明俄羅斯計劃對烏克蘭採取重大侵略行動，美國對此深感擔憂。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 16:23
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 18:52
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾普京在紀念納粹滅絕營奧斯威辛集中營解放 75 週年的世界大屠殺論壇上發表講話，該論壇於 2020 年 1 月 23 日在耶路撒冷 Yad Vashem 大屠殺紀念中心舉行
（圖片來源：REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun）
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美國周三敦促俄羅斯從烏克蘭邊境撤軍，並警告稱，俄羅斯的入侵將引發製裁，對莫斯科的打擊將比迄今為止實施的任何制裁都要嚴重。
“我們不知道（弗拉基米爾）普京總統是否已經做出了入侵的決定。我們確實知道，如果他做出這樣的決定，他將在短期內建立起這樣做的能力，”美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯說。
“如果俄羅斯走上對抗的道路，在烏克蘭問題上，我們已經明確表示我們將做出堅決回應，包括採取一系列我們過去沒有採取的具有高影響力的經濟措施。”
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布林肯在與北約和烏克蘭的外交部長就如何應對基輔所說的俄羅斯在其邊境附近集結超過 90,000 名士兵的問題進行了商討後，在拉脫維亞首都裡加發表講話。
俄羅斯於 2014 年從烏克蘭手中奪取了克里米亞半島，但否認當前危機中的侵略意圖，並表示正在回應北約和烏克蘭的威脅行為。
一架烏克蘭空軍戰鬥機於 2021 年 11 月 23 日在烏克蘭南部 Mykolaiv 地區的一次演習中起飛。（圖片來源：烏克蘭武裝部隊空軍司令部/通過路透社的講義）
克里姆林宮表示，它擔心烏克蘭正準備在該國東部的頓巴斯地區被親俄分裂分子控制的部隊重新奪回——基輔否認了這一點——並指責它“非常危險的冒險主義”。
它說，由於烏克蘭軍隊大量集中在邊境附近，俄羅斯無法採取任何措施來緩和局勢。
烏克蘭外長德米特羅·庫萊巴表示，歐洲面臨關鍵時刻，俄羅斯正試圖將責任推卸給烏克蘭。
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“我想再次正式聲明，烏克蘭不打算在頓巴斯進行任何軍事進攻。這是俄羅斯的宣傳胡說八道，目的是掩蓋俄羅斯自己為潛在襲擊做的準備。”
布林肯拒絕說明俄羅斯可能面臨哪些制裁，並鼓勵莫斯科和基輔恢復外交關係，並重啟 2014 年烏克蘭東部和平計劃。
俄羅斯通過減少對外國金融市場的借款和維持大量貨幣和黃金儲備，減弱了對其入侵克里米亞實施的製裁的影響。
但西方現在有更大的潛在影響力，如果要瞄準波羅的海下新建的北溪 2 號管道，俄羅斯渴望在獲得德國監管機構的批准後立即開始輸送天然氣。
東西方閃點
烏克蘭與俄羅斯有著數百年的共同歷史，自從親俄總統在 2014 年的一場革命中被罷免後，莫斯科就對其向西傾斜深表不滿。
它目前加入歐盟和北約的願望使其成為俄羅斯與西方關係惡化的主要導火索。
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普京周三表示，莫斯科希望與美國及其盟國進行認真的談判，以獲得法律保障，以排除北約進一步向東移動和在俄羅斯領土附近部署武器系統的可能性。
一天前，克里姆林宮領導人表示，俄羅斯已準備好使用新測試的高超音速武器，以防北約越過“紅線”並在烏克蘭部署導彈。
布林肯在新聞發布會上說：“如果事情不是那麼嚴重，烏克蘭對俄羅斯構成威脅的想法將是一個坏笑話。北約本身是一個防禦性聯盟，我們對俄羅斯沒有威脅。”
北約秘書長延斯·斯托爾滕貝格駁斥了北約在黑海進行軍事演習激怒莫斯科的指控。
“俄羅斯的問題在於他們不透明，他們的言辭非常咄咄逼人，而且記錄表明他們以前曾使用軍事演習作為對鄰國採取侵略行動的偽裝，”他告訴路透社下一個在線峰會。
俄羅斯表示，已在其南部軍區開始定期進行冬季軍事演習，該軍區的部分地區與烏克蘭接壤，10,000 名士兵已遷往該地區的訓練場。其盟友白俄羅斯也宣布與俄羅斯在烏克蘭邊境舉行聯合軍事演習。
烏克蘭總統澤連斯基表示，需要與莫斯科進行直接對話，以結束東部的戰爭，基輔稱這場戰爭已造成 14,000 多人死亡。
澤連斯基對議會說：“我們必須說實話，如果不與俄羅斯直接談判，我們將無法停止戰爭，今天這一點已經得到所有外部合作夥伴的認可。”
Putin putting together plan to invade Ukraine - Blinken
The US is deeply concerned by evidence that Russia has made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 16:23
Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2021 18:52
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the World Holocaust Forum marking 75 years since the liberation of the Nazi extermination camp Auschwitz, at Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial centre in Jerusalem January 23, 2020
(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
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The United States urged Russia on Wednesday to pull back its troops from the Ukrainian border, warning that a Russian invasion would provoke sanctions that would hit Moscow harder than any imposed until now.
"We don't know whether President (Vladimir) Putin has made the decision to invade. We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short order should he so decide," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
"Should Russia follow the path of confrontation, when it comes to Ukraine, we've made clear that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high impact economic measures that we have refrained from pursuing in the past."
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Blinken was speaking in the Latvian capital Riga after conferring with foreign ministers from NATO and Ukraine on how to respond to what Kyiv says is a Russian build-up of more than 90,000 troops near its border.
Russia seized the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 but denies aggressive intent in the current crisis and says it is responding to threatening behavior by NATO and Ukraine.
A Ukrainian Air Force fighter jet takes off during a drill in Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine November 23, 2021. (credit: AIR FORCE COMMAND OF UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
The Kremlin said it feared Ukraine was gearing up to try to recapture by force areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region in the east of the country - something Kyiv denies - and accused it of "very dangerous adventurism."
It said Russia could not take any steps to de-escalate because of a large concentration of Ukrainian forces close to the border.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Europe faced a critical moment and Russia was trying to shift the blame onto Ukraine.
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"I would like again to officially state that Ukraine does not plan any military offensive in Donbass. This is Russian propaganda nonsense in order to cover up Russia's own preparations for a potential attack."
Blinken declined to spell out what sanctions Russia might face and encouraged both Moscow and Kyiv to return to diplomacy and revive a 2014 peace plan for eastern Ukraine.
Russia has blunted the impact of sanctions imposed over its invasion of Crimea by reducing its borrowings on foreign financial markets and maintaining large currency and gold reserves.
But the West has more potential leverage now if it were to target the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea, through which Russia is keen to start pumping gas as soon as it gets the green light from a German regulator.
EAST-WEST FLASHPOINT
Ukraine has centuries of shared history with Russia and Moscow keenly resents its westward tilt since a pro-Russian president was ousted in a revolution in 2014.
Its current aspiration to join both the European Union and NATO has made it the main flashpoint in Russia's deteriorating relations with the West.
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Putin said on Wednesday that Moscow wanted serious negotiations with the United States and its allies to extract legal guarantees that would rule out any further NATO moves to the east and the deployment of weapons systems close to Russian territory.
A day earlier, the Kremlin leader said Russia was ready with a newly tested hypersonic weapon in case NATO crossed its "red lines" and deployed missiles in Ukraine.
Blinken told a news conference: "The idea that Ukraine represents a threat to Russia would be a bad joke if things weren't so serious. NATO itself is a defensive alliance, we're not a threat to Russia."
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg rejected accusations the alliance was provoking Moscow with military exercises in the Black Sea.
"The problem with Russia is that they are not transparent, that they have a very aggressive rhetoric and a track record showing they have used military exercises before as a disguise for aggressive actions against neighbors," he told the Reuters Next online summit.
Russia said it had started regular winter military drills in its southern military district, parts of which border Ukraine, and that 10,000 troops had relocated to training grounds across the huge area. Its ally Belarus has also announced joint military drills with Russia on the Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said direct talks with Moscow were needed to end the war in the east, which Kyiv says has killed more than 14,000 people.
"We must tell the truth that we will not be able to stop the war without direct negotiations with Russia, and today this has already been recognized by all, all external partners," Zelenskiy told parliament.
土耳其里拉因埃爾多安而跌至歷史新低
雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安干預土耳其的貨幣政策——對該國的貨幣造成嚴重後果。
作者：MARVIN ZIEGELE/耶路撒冷郵報特別報導
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 15:24
土耳其總統塔伊普·埃爾多安於 2020 年 12 月 14 日在土耳其安卡拉舉行內閣會議後的新聞發布會上發表講話
（圖片來源：總統新聞辦公室/通過路透社的講義）
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土耳其貨幣仍處於自由落體狀態。週三，里拉下跌 3%，創下歷史新低。反過來，美元匯率升至 13.49 里拉——比以往任何時候都高。
據路透社報導，土耳其總統雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安在接受 TRT 電視台採訪時承諾提供低利率。埃爾多安表示，到 2023 年大選時，利率將會降低，而且他也不再有興趣使用更高的關鍵利率來吸引短期投資進入該國。
土耳其貨幣里拉隨後相對於美元和歐元崩潰。反過來，美元升至略低於 14 里拉，而歐元則攀升至接近 16 里拉。
自央行開始實施寬鬆政策以來，土耳其里拉已貶值 27% 以上，這是迄今為止新興市場中貶值幅度最大的一次。10 月份消費者價格同比上漲 19.9%，接近官方目標的四倍。
在這張 2021 年 11 月 23 日在土耳其伊斯坦布爾拍攝的插圖中，土耳其里拉鈔票旁邊是一張美元鈔票。（圖片來源：REUTERS/MURAD SEZER/ILLUSTRATION/FILE PHOTO）
一段時間以來，土耳其的貨幣一直在貶值，經濟遭受重創。背景是埃爾多安總統多次干預央行貨幣政策。與所有經濟原因相反，埃爾多安認為高利率會促進通貨膨脹。這確保了越來越少的人能夠負擔得起他們所需的基本食品，因為價格每天都在上漲。
據路透社報導，Allspring Global Investments 多元資產解決方案高級投資策略師布賴恩·雅各布森 (Brian Jacobsen) 表示：“埃爾多安試圖做的這是一項危險的實驗，市場正試圖警告他後果。” “隨著里拉貶值，進口可能會變得更加昂貴，這將加劇通脹。”
Turkish lira slips to record low because of Erdogan
Recep Tayyip Erdogan interferes in Turkey's monetary policy - with serious consequences for the country's currency.
By MARVIN ZIEGELE/SPECIAL TO THE JERUSALEM POST
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 15:24
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a news conference following a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Turkey, December 14, 2020
(photo credit: PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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The Turkish currency is still in free fall. On Wednesday, the lira slid three percent to a new record low. In turn, the dollar's exchange rate rose to as high as 13.49 liras - higher than ever before.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan promised low-interest rates in an interview with the TRT television station, Reuters news agency reports. Erdoğan said there will be lower interest rates by the time elections are scheduled for 2023, and that he is also no longer interested in using higher key interest rates to attract short-term investment into the country.
The Turkish currency, the lira, then collapsed in relation to the dollar and the euro. In turn, the dollar rose to just below 14 lira, while the euro climbed close to 16 lira.
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The Turkish lira has weakened by more than 27% since the start of the central bank's easing policy, by far the largest devaluation in the emerging markets. Consumer prices rose an annual 19.9% in October, nearly four times the official target.
A US one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER/ILLUSTRATION/FILE PHOTO)
Turkey's currency has been falling for some time, and the economy is suffering. The background is President Erdoğan's repeated interventions in the central bank's monetary policy. Against all economic reason, Erdoğan believes that high-interest rates promote inflation. This ensures that fewer and fewer people can afford the basic foodstuffs they need, as prices rise daily.
"It's a dangerous experiment that Erdogan is trying to do, and the market is trying to warn him of the consequences," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist, multi-asset solutions at Allspring Global Investments, according to Reuters. "Imports are likely to become more expensive as the lira falls, which will exacerbate inflation."
聯合國推動現金援助，以避免阿富汗的大規模貧困
聯合國世界糧食計劃署表示，有 2280 萬人面臨嚴重的糧食不安全問題。
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發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 09:04
陽光普照在聯合國總部聯合國秘書處大樓後面。紐約市，紐約，美國，2021 年 6 月 18 日。
（照片來源：路透社/安德魯凱利/文件照片）
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聯合國周三表示，一項每年向有孩子、老人或殘疾人士的阿富汗家庭支付 3 億美元現金的計劃是解決日益貧困的最佳方式。
聯合國開發計劃署 (UNDP) 稱阿富汗未來 13 個月的社會經濟前景“令人擔憂”，它還推動了 1 億美元的“工作換現金”項目，以促進就業和 9000 萬美元的小企業付款。
聯合國開發計劃署亞太區主任康尼·維格納拉賈 (Kanni Wignaraja) 對路透社說：“這可能是阻止這種大規模陷入幾乎普遍貧困的最好辦法。”
在塔利班於 8 月中旬奪取政權後，阿富汗面臨國際發展援助急劇下降、經濟和銀行體系瀕臨崩潰、COVID-19 大流行和嚴重干旱等問題，開發計劃署預計貧困可能會變得幾乎普遍到 2022 年年中 - 影響該國 3900 萬人口中的 90% 以上。
聯合國世界糧食計劃署表示，有 2280 萬人面臨嚴重的糧食不安全問題。
2021 年 11 月 2 日，塔利班戰士在阿富汗喀布爾急診醫院門口檢查受傷的同志（圖片來源：REUTERS/ZOHRA BENSEMRA）
開發署於 10 月設立了一個特別信託基金，德國承諾提供 5000 萬歐元（5800 萬美元），直接向阿富汗人提供急需的現金。迄今為止，該基金已收到 1.7 億美元的認捐。
開發計劃署的報告提出了推動現金支付計劃的理由，該計劃稱為 ABADEI，該計劃於 10 月啟動。自那以後，聯合國開發計劃署表示已支付了 100,000 美元的“工作換現金”付款，為馬扎爾、昆都士和赫拉特的 2,300 人創造了就業機會，並且正在擴展到其他省份。
該報告還警告說，除非取消對女性工作的限制，繼續提供每年 2.5 億美元的抗擊COVID-19援助，並放鬆制裁以允許人道主義援助，否則阿富汗的經濟增長在短期內不會轉為正增長。
據估計，限製女性就業可能會造成 6 億至 10 億美元的直接經濟損失——佔國內生產總值的 3% 至 5%。
維格納拉賈在喀布爾會見了塔利班官員，他說需要傳達一個信息，“所有有能力的男女都應該完全恢復工作，發揮你的全部潛力，不僅減輕眼前的經濟災難，而且把這當作國家的未來。”
UN pushes cash handouts to avert mass poverty in Afghanistan
The UN World Food Program has said 22.8 million people are facing acute food insecurity.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 09:04
The sun shines behind the United Nations Secretariat Building at the United Nations Headquarters. New York City, New York, U.S., June 18, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS/ANDREW KELLY/FILE PHOTO)
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The United Nations said on Wednesday that a program to pay $300 million a year in cash to Afghan families with children, the elderly or people with disabilities is the best way to target increasing poverty.
In what the UN Development Program (UNDP) described as an "alarming" socio-economic outlook for Afghanistan for the next 13 months, it also pushed a $100 million "cash for work" project to boost employment and $90 million in small business payments.
"This will be probably the best shot at halting this massive collapse into near-universal poverty," UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, Kanni Wignaraja, told Reuters.
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As Afghanistan struggles with a sharp drop in international development aid after the
Taliban
seized power in mid-August, an economy and banking system on the brink of collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic and severe drought, UNDP has projected that poverty may become nearly universal by mid-2022 - affecting more than 90 percent of the country's 39 million people.
The UN World Food Program has said 22.8 million people are facing acute food insecurity.
Taliban fighters check on injured comrades at the entrance of the emergency hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan November 2, 2021 (credit: REUTERS/ZOHRA BENSEMRA)
UNDP set up a special trust fund in October, with a 50 million euros ($58 million) pledge from Germany, to provide urgently needed cash directly to Afghans. So far, the fund has received pledges for $170 million.
The UNDP report makes the case for boosting a cash payment program, known as ABADEI, which was launched in October. Since then UNDP said it has made $100,000 in "cash for work" payments, creating jobs for 2,300 people in Mazar, Kunduz and Herat, and is being expanded to other provinces.
The report also warned that Afghanistan's economic growth will not turn positive in the near term unless restrictions on women working are lifted, $250 million a year in aid to combat COVID-19 continues and sanctions are eased to allow for humanitarian assistance.
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It estimates that restricting female employment could cause an immediate economic loss of between $600 million and $1 billion - 3 to 5 percent of gross domestic product.
Wignaraja, who has met Taliban officials in Kabul, said a message needed to be sent that "all capable men and women should be fully back to work and contribute to your full potential to not only mitigate the immediate economic disaster, but think about this as the future of the country."
塔利班，緬甸軍政府暫時不太可能被允許進入聯合國 - 外交官
該委員會可能會推遲就阿富汗和緬甸的代表權做出決定，前提是兩國現任大使仍留在席位上。
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發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 07:19
上週，塔利班代表抵達卡塔爾多哈會見美國和歐洲代表。
（圖片來源：路透社）
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外交官表示，週三舉行的聯合國委員會會議不太可能允許阿富汗的塔利班或緬甸的軍政府在這個擁有 193 個成員的世界機構中代表他們的國家。
塔利班和緬甸軍政府與他們今年被驅逐的政府任命的大使競爭，爭奪兩國的席位。聯合國對塔利班或緬甸軍政府的接受將是朝著兩者所尋求的國際承認邁出的一步。
包括俄羅斯、中國和美國在內的一個由九名成員組成的聯合國全權證書委員會將在聯合國總部開會，審議本屆聯大所有 193 個成員的全權證書。
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四名不願透露姓名的外交官告訴路透社，該委員會可能會推遲就阿富汗和緬甸代表的決定，因為兩國現任大使仍留在席位上。
該委員會——還包括巴哈馬、不丹、智利、納米比亞、塞拉利昂和瑞典——然後將在年底前將所有成員的全權證書報告提交聯合國大會批准。
抗議者在緬甸曼德勒的示威活動中手持火炬。（信用：路透社）
外交官們說，委員會和大會傳統上都是通過協商一致來決定證書的。
槓桿作用
8 月中旬從國際公認的政府手中奪取政權的塔利班已提名其駐多哈發言人 Suhail Shaheen 為阿富汗駐聯合國大使。被罷免政府任命的現任聯合國大使古拉姆·伊薩克扎伊也要求保留席位。
前副市長 1925 年的曼哈頓聯排別墅由 Mansion Global 贊助
當塔利班最後一次在 1996 年至 2001 年間統治阿富汗時，在全權證書委員會推遲就對席位的競爭性主張做出決定後，他們推翻的政府大使仍然是聯合國代表。
聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯 (Antonio Guterres) 表示，塔利班渴望獲得國際承認，是其他國家在阿富汗推動包容性政府和尊重權利，尤其是婦女權利的唯一手段。
塔利班提名的聯合國特使沙欣本月早些時候在推特上寫道：“我們擁有佔領阿富汗聯合國席位所需的所有條件，我們希望法律要求能夠取代政治偏好。”
緬甸軍政府於 2 月從昂山素季的民選政府手中奪取權力，已任命退伍軍人昂圖雷為其聯合國特使。
現任大使覺萌敦 - 由昂山素季政府任命 - 也要求更新他的聯合國認證，儘管他因反對政變而成為殺害或傷害他的陰謀的目標。
上個月卸任的前聯合國緬甸問題特使警告說，任何國家都不應承認軍政府或使軍政府合法化，而古特雷斯在 2 月份承諾動員壓力“以確保這次政變失敗”。
Taliban, Myanmar junta unlikely to be let into UN for now - diplomats
The committee will likely defer its decisions on the representation of Afghanistan and Myanmar on the understanding that the current ambassadors for both countries remain in the seats.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 1, 2021 07:19
Taliban delegates arrive to meet with US and European delegates in Doha, Qatar, last week.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
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A United Nations committee meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to allow Afghanistan's Taliban or Myanmar's junta to represent their countries at the 193-member world body, say diplomats.
Rival claims have been made for the seats of both countries with the Taliban and Myanmar's junta pitted against ambassadors appointed by the governments they ousted this year. UN acceptance of the Taliban or Myanmar's junta would be a step toward the international recognition sought by both.
A nine-member UN credentials committee, which includes Russia, China and the United States, will meet at UN headquarters to consider the credentials of all 193 members for the current session of the UN General Assembly.
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The committee will likely defer its decisions on the representation of Afghanistan and Myanmar on the understanding that the current ambassadors for both countries remain in the seats, four diplomats told Reuters on the condition of anonymity.
The committee - which also includes the Bahamas, Bhutan, Chile, Namibia, Sierra Leone and Sweden - will then send its report on the credentials of all members to the UN General Assembly for approval before the end of the year.
PROTESTERS HOLD torches during a demonstration in Mandalay, Myanmar. (credit: REUTERS)
Both the committee and the General Assembly traditionally take decisions on credentials by consensus, diplomats say.
LEVERAGE
The Taliban, which seized power in mid-August from the internationally-recognized government, has nominated its Doha-based spokesman Suhail Shaheen as Afghanistan's UN ambassador. The current UN ambassador appointed by the ousted government, Ghulam Isaczai, has also asked to keep the seat.
When the Taliban last ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001 the ambassador of the government they toppled remained the UN representative after the credentials committee deferred its decision on rival claims to the seat.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the Taliban's desire for international recognition is the only leverage other countries have to press for inclusive government and respect for rights, particularly for women, in Afghanistan.
The Taliban's nominated UN envoy Shaheen posted on Twitter earlier this month: "We have all the conditions needed for occupying the seat of Afghanistan at UN We hope legal requirements will supersede political preferences."
Myanmar's junta, which seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government in February, has put forward military veteran Aung Thurein to be its UN envoy.
Current Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun - appointed by Suu Kyi's government - has also asked to renew his UN accreditation, despite being the target of a plot to kill or injure him over his opposition to the coup.
The former UN special envoy on Myanmar, who stepped down last month, warned that no country should recognize or legitimize the junta, while Guterres pledged in February to mobilize pressure "to make sure that this coup fails."
拉扎里尼說，近東救濟工程處瀕臨崩潰，無法支付工資
本月早些時候，近東救濟工程處籌集了 3,800 萬美元，以彌補其 12 億美元預算中的 1 億美元缺口，但剩餘的缺口讓它不得不爭搶資金。
作者：托瓦·拉扎羅夫
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 1 日 19:38
2021 年 11 月 8 日，在約旦安曼，近東救濟工程處的員工參加了靜坐示威，反對該組織內部預期的緊縮措施。
（圖片來源：路透社/JEHAD SHELBAK）
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聯合國巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處（UNRWA）“處於崩潰的邊緣”，無法按時支付 11 月份的工資，專員菲利普·拉扎里尼（Phillipe Lazzarini）說。
“數十年來對優質服務的投資現在有被逆轉的風險，”拉扎里尼在周三發表的關於這場危機的聲明中說。他在周一和周二在安曼舉行的小組諮詢委員會會議結束後發表了講話。
“在過去兩天與近東救濟工程處的主要合作夥伴會面時，我呼籲立即為 2021 年巴勒斯坦難民的健康/教育/社會服務提供資金，”拉扎里尼發推文說。
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他說，在以色列-巴勒斯坦衝突沒有任何解決辦法的情況下，這種資金尤為重要。
“我提醒捐助者，在沒有包括巴勒斯坦難民在內的政治解決方案的情況下，根據聯合國大會的授權，近東救濟工程處的權利+服務是不可替代的，”拉扎里尼說。
2021 年 6 月 2 日，近東救濟工程處主任專員菲利普·拉扎里尼 (Philippe Lazzarini) 在訪問謝赫賈拉 (Sheikh Jarrah) 的東耶路撒冷社區期間觀看。（圖片來源：AMMAR AWAD / REUTERS）
本月早些時候，近東救濟工程處籌集了 3,800 萬美元，以彌補其 12 億美元預算中的 1 億美元缺口，但剩餘的缺口讓它不得不爭搶資金。
“上週四，我被迫通知 28,000 多名聯合國人員，近東救濟工程處沒有足夠的資金按時支付他們 11 月的工資，”拉扎里尼週一告訴他的諮詢機構。他警告說，這將中斷服務並加劇巴勒斯坦人的憤怒和沮喪。
近東救濟工程處為黎巴嫩、敘利亞、約旦、加沙、西岸和東耶路撒冷的 570 萬巴勒斯坦難民提供服務。在捐助者資金減少和對該組織進行政治攻擊的時代，維持服務已經很困難。
用這款1698元新單筒望遠鏡，幾公里外就看到一切Sponsored by StarLens 視達嵐
特朗普政府停止了美國每年 3.6 億美元的捐款。唐納德特朗普領導下的以色列和美國都指責近東救濟工程處延續而不是解決巴勒斯坦難民問題，並允許其學校使用宣揚反猶太主義和反以色列言論的教科書。
拜登政府已經恢復了大部分資金，以換取教育課程的改革。
拉扎里尼承諾對反猶太主義和煽動行為採取不容忍政策，但同時警告說，此類襲擊具有政治性質，旨在出於政治原因摧毀近東救濟工程處。
他說，近東救濟工程處的學校必須反映巴勒斯坦兒童生活在“佔領”之下的現實，信息不應被抹去。
“我們需要結束聳人聽聞和毫無根據的指控，這些指控破壞了該機構的聲譽、資金和巴勒斯坦難民的權利，”拉扎里尼說。
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