2021.11.26 國際新聞導讀-伊朗核武談判是否玩真的沒人知道、衣索比亞內戰波及在首都等待移民的衣索比亞猶太人許多人已經遭強制徵兵、澳洲宗教法案是否帶有歧視意味

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.11.26 國際新聞導讀-伊朗核武談判是否玩真的沒人知道、衣索比亞內戰波及在首都等待移民的衣索比亞猶太人許多人已經遭強制徵兵、澳洲宗教法案是否帶有歧視意味
以色列和美國是否因伊朗核政策發生衝突？
以色列-伊朗事務：隨著華盛頓和德黑蘭開始新一輪的吃雞，耶路撒冷應該如何定位？
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 21:23
國際原子能機構（IAEA）總幹事拉斐爾·格羅西周二在德黑蘭與伊朗原子能組織負責人穆罕默德·埃斯拉米舉行的新聞發布會上發表講話。
（圖片來源：HADI SAND/ISNA/WANA/REUTERS）
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隨著維也納核談判將於下周星期一開始，以色列和美國之間關於伊朗政策的公開衝突似乎幾乎超過了耶路撒冷和德黑蘭之間的衝突。
納夫塔利·貝內特總理非常擔心華盛頓急於達成一項比 2015 年伊核協議更弱的核協議，並在本週發出了他迄今為止最直接的軍事威脅。
以色列和美國在這個問題上的交流在好轉之前可能會變得更糟，因為人們對以色列核談判的預測往往範圍從伊朗不會同意任何事情到美國會屈服於糟糕的交易。
我們是如何走到這一步的？我們要去哪裡？
這些最新的煙花是在過去 10 個月以色列人如何看待拜登政府的伊朗政策的四個演變階段之後出現的。當前階段似乎又回到了2020年11月最初深感憂慮的狀態，伊朗本身也處於更加危險的境地。
當美國總統約瑟夫·拜登（Joseph Biden）當選並在上任初期，本傑明·內塔尼亞胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）政府中的以色列高級官員要么辭職，要么擔心美國會無條件重新加入 2015 年伊核協議。
對於當時的以色列官員來說，這將消除他們在兩年半時間裡對伊朗建立的所有製裁和心理影響力。這沒有收到任何東西，同時為伊朗伊斯蘭共和國在 JCPOA 到期時獲得核武器鋪平了道路，如果不是更早的話。
8 月，納夫塔利·貝內特總理和美國總統喬·拜登在橢圓形辦公室。（信用：喬納森·恩斯特/路透社）
但第二階段在耶路撒冷更為樂觀。
儘管伊朗要求並威脅拜登必須在 1 月或 2 月之前按照其條款返回 JCPOA，但拜登團隊還是堅持了下來，並表示只會在之後達成一項附加協議，以加強和延長 JCPOA .
在其他一些問題中，華盛頓的這個目標是 4-6 月談判未能達成協議的原因之一，即使他們接近了。
人們可以稱這一時期為以色列在美國堅持其立場的第一場胜利。
然而，隨後出現了混亂的第三階段，從 6 月到現在一直沒有談判，以色列對伊朗伊斯蘭共和國不斷升級的核侵犯行為越來越感到不安。
這些違規行為包括濃縮至 60%（僅比 90% 武器化鈾低一級）、足夠多的鈾（如果濃縮至 90%）以及阻止 IAEA 進入關鍵核設施。
單獨地，當然累積地，這種在美國、以色列或聯合國沒有嚴重危機反應的情況下的明顯違規行為，在早些年可能是不可想像的。
但對以色列來說，積極的一面是，美國開始與伊朗討論 B 計劃。
美國似乎認為外交正在失敗，伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西的新政府根本不願意達成任何類似合理交易的協議。
儘管伊斯蘭共和國在核武器方面的進展存在不確定性，但這段時期可能是以色列與美國關係的最佳時期，因為兩國政府同樣對賴西的阻撓感到沮喪。
然而，一旦 IAEA 理事會似乎準備在 9 月公開譴責德黑蘭，這甚至可能導致聯合國安理會被提交，Raisi 終於表示準備恢復談判。
即使是恢復談判的一絲氣息也讓 IAEA 預期的 9 月譴責終止，並使華盛頓參與快速外交。
儘管 IAEA 總幹事拉斐爾格羅西認為與伊朗的談判到目前為止是棘手的（並且 IAEA 試圖向後彎腰以保持外交），但所有跡象表明，理事會將在本週的會議上再次討論這個問題。
根據記錄，美國官員還開始向伊朗人提供新的靈活性。
目前尚不清楚新的靈活性是否意味著允許德黑蘭保留其所有用於濃縮鈾的先進離心機的新軍隊，還是意味著美國將部分解除制裁，即使是部分減少伊朗的製裁。核侵犯。
Raisi 已經比他的前任 Hassan Rouhani 取得了更多的成就，僅僅因為幾個月拒絕談話。2019 年提出的舊的“少換少”協議要求伊斯蘭共和國開始重新簽署核協議——而不僅僅是凍結新的違規行為，這一事實清楚地表明了這一點。
如果 2019 年的“少換少”協議意味著伊朗將部分制裁減免，伊朗將運出部分新的大型鈾庫存並凍結所有新的濃縮物，那麼更新後的、更糟糕的“少換少”協議聽起來只是凍結或放緩新的濃縮——無需運出任何鈾庫存。
如果在 2019-2020 年需要銷毀先進的離心機（無論如何它們的數量都更少），現在它們可以被存放起來。將它們存放起來意味著它們可以在幾天或幾週內輕鬆恢復運行。
美國的弱勢立場決定了事情的發展方向。
如果拜登政府準備好接受較弱的 JCPOA 或較弱的“以少換少”的交易或任何似乎可以減少危機感的談判，即使沒有達成協議——那麼其改善 JCPOA 的最初想法似乎將不復存在窗戶。
包括國防部長本尼·甘茨 (Benny Gantz) 在內的一些以色列高級國防人物一直在推動以色列在幕後默默工作以達成更好的 JCPOA，即使它沒有得到它想要的一切——例如，對伊朗的彈道導彈（有目前沒有任何牙齒）或對該地區的侵略。
但如果華盛頓沒有足夠的裝備或承諾來實現這些改進，那麼以色列究竟能希望從美國得到什麼？
拜登是否會像拜登那樣狹隘地為以色列對伊朗核設施的先發製人的打擊開綠燈，即使他不會自己下令罷工？
拜登會給出這樣的簽字嗎？
美國國防部長勞埃德奧斯汀和美國中央司令部司令小肯尼思麥肯齊本週都強調，美國的軍事選擇已經擺在桌面上。
然而，由於拜登迄今為止在動用武力方面的消極態度以及他從阿富汗的拙劣撤軍（特朗普也打算撤軍，但他暗殺伊斯蘭革命衛隊聖城部隊負責人卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼比拜登迄今為止更恐嚇阿亞圖拉），許多人認為這一點作為沒有細節的空談。
例如，在奧巴馬政府期間，美國軍方官員就使用特定飛機和武器的準備情況進行了公開採訪——而這一輪還沒有人這樣做過。
拜登可能不願使用武力引發了一個可以追溯到大約十年前的老問題，即以色列是否有能力摧毀伊朗在地下深處的福爾多設施。
還有更多最近的問題，即以色列是否可以自己取出足夠多的伊朗核設施（與伊拉克和敘利亞的情況不同，伊拉克和敘利亞每個都只有一個主要設施）以充分阻礙該計劃。
有趣的是，以色列前高級官員在這個問題上的回答大相徑庭。
以色列國防軍前情報局長阿莫斯·亞德林表示，以色列絕對可以。
前摩薩德負責人塔米爾·帕爾多和前摩薩德伊朗事務負責人西馬·希恩都表示，他們懷疑以色列能否靠自己。
帕爾多在 6 月剛剛退休的摩薩德繼任者尤西·科恩在上個月的耶路撒冷郵報會議和本月的國土報會議上表示，以色列應該確保擁有或發展這種能力——讓他的立場不明朗。
同樣，前國家安全委員會主席雅科夫·阿米德羅強調，以色列需要具備這樣的能力，但對以色列現在是否可以做到這一點含糊其辭。
以色列國防軍前負責人（2015-2019）加迪·艾森科特此前曾自信地告訴耶路撒冷郵報，以色列可以取消伊朗的核計劃，但沒有具體說明如何實施。
“是”的官員是在虛張聲勢以威懾伊朗，還是“否”的官員是被誤導還是淡化了以色列阻止耶路撒冷急於扣動扳機的能力，貝內特即使在本週的演講之後也沒有明確說明是在什麼時候他會罷工。
由於內塔尼亞胡的所有強硬言論，即使是在 JCPOA 正在談判或實施的幾年裡，他也害怕打擊伊朗。
如果有新版本的 JCPOA 運作，漏洞等等，但美國重新參與交易，貝內特真的會打擊伊斯蘭共和國嗎？
他是否會像內塔尼亞胡那樣積極地利用摩薩德來破壞核設施並減緩伊斯蘭共和國的發展速度，即使這種打擊造成的延誤只能以幾個月而不是幾年來衡量？
在所有這一切中，有一個因素比 2012-2015 年期間要糟糕得多，這一因素導致伊朗至少為 JCPOA 做出一些重大的短期核讓步。
然後，中國和俄羅斯希望阿亞圖拉做出讓步，讓危機消失。
但是現在中國和俄羅斯與美國的關係都處於新的低點，而且拜登沒有在台灣或烏克蘭問題上提供一些改變遊戲規則的東西，他可能沒有什麼可以讓他們向德黑蘭施壓以達成更合理的交易。
簡而言之，以色列正在進入一個改變伊朗行為的總體趨勢更糟的時期。
隨著美國和伊朗開始一場新的雞肉遊戲，一些人認為這可能會持續到 2022 年，它可能需要忍受較長時間的不確定性。
在走鋼絲的過程中，摩薩德和其他人提供的關於伊朗進展多遠的準確情報將比以往任何時候都更加重要。
Are Israel and US clashing over Iran nuclear policy?
ISRAELI-IRANIAN AFFAIRS: As Washington and Tehran start a new round of chicken, how should Jerusalem position itself?
By YONAH JEREMY BOB
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 21:23
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi speaks during a news conference with Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization Mohammad Eslami in Tehran, on Tuesday.
(photo credit: HADI ZAND/ISNA/WANA/REUTERS)
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With nuclear negotiations in Vienna set to start on Monday of next week, the open conflict between Israel and the US over Iran policy almost seemed to overtake the conflict between Jerusalem and Tehran.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is extremely concerned that Washington is rushing toward a nuclear deal weaker than the 2015 JCPOA Iran deal, and made his most direct military-sounding threats yet this week.
Israeli-American exchanges on the issue could get a lot worse before they get better, at a time when predictions for the nuclear talks in Israel tend to range from Iran will not agree to anything to America will cave in for a bad deal.
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How did we get to this point and where are we going?
THESE LATEST fireworks come after four evolving stages of ups and downs of how Israelis have viewed the Biden administration’s Iran policy over the last 10 months. The current stage seems to have returned to the original deeply worried stance of November 2020, and with Iran itself at a more dangerous point.
When US President Joseph Biden was elected and in his early months, top Israeli officials in the administration of Benjamin Netanyahu ranged between resignation and dread that America would rejoin the JCPOA 2015 Iran nuclear deal with no conditions.
For Israeli officials at that time, this would have erased all of the sanctions and psychological leverage they had built up over Iran over two-and-a-half years. And this without receiving anything, while paving the way for the Islamic Republic to a nuclear weapon when the JCPOA would expire, if not before.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office in August. (credit: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS)
But the second stage was more optimistic in Jerusalem.
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Despite demands and threats from Iran that Biden must return to the JCPOA on its terms by January or February, the Biden team took its time and said it would cut a deal only along with an add-on deal afterward that would strengthen and lengthen the JCPOA.
Among some other issues, this goal of Washington is one of the reasons that the April-June negotiations fell short of an agreement, even if they got close.
One could call this period the first Israeli win in that the US stuck to its positions.
However, then there was a third stage of confusion in which there were no negotiations from June until now, where Israel was increasingly disturbed by the Islamic Republic’s escalating nuclear violations.
These violations included enrichment to 60% (only one step below 90% weaponized uranium), sufficient uranium for multiple nuclear weapons (if enriched up to 90%) and blocking IAEA access to key nuclear facilities.
Separately and certainly cumulatively, such stark violations with no serious crisis reaction from the US, Israel or the UN, might have been unthinkable in earlier years.
But on the positive side for Israel, America started to talk about a plan B with Iran.
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The US seemed to judge that diplomacy was failing and that the new administration of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi simply was unwilling to reach anything resembling a reasonable deal.
Although there was uncertainty surrounding how close the Islamic Republic was progressing toward a nuclear weapon, this period was possibly the best for Israeli-US relations because both administrations were equally frustrated with Raisi’s stonewalling.
However, once the IAEA Board of Governors seemed ready to publicly condemn Tehran in September, which could have even led to a UN Security Council referral, Raisi finally signaled a readiness to return to talks.
Even a whiff of a return to talks shut down the expected September IAEA condemnation and brought Washington into engaging in rapid diplomacy.
Despite IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi’s framing of negotiations with Iran as intractable so far (and the IAEA tried to bend over backward to be diplomatic), all signs were that the board of governors would punt the issue again during its meetings this week.
Off the record, US officials also started floating new flexibility toward the Iranians.
It is unclear whether the new flexibility means allowing Tehran to maintain all of its new army of advanced centrifuges for enriching uranium, or whether it means a “less for less” deal in which the US would partially lift sanctions for even a partial reduction in Iranian nuclear violations.
Raisi had already achieved more than his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, simply by refusing to talk for a few months. This is clear from the fact that the old “less for less” deal floated in 2019 required the Islamic Republic to start returning to the nuclear deal – not just to freeze new violations.
If the 2019 “less for less” deal meant partial sanctions relief would come for Iran shipping out some of its new large uranium stock and freezing all new enrichment, the updated, worse “less for less” deal sounds like mere freezing or slowing of new enrichment – without shipping out any of the uranium stock.
If, in 2019-2020, advanced centrifuges would need to be destroyed (and there were fewer of them anyway), now they could just be placed in storage. Placing them in storage would mean they could easily be returned to operation in a matter of days or weeks.
THE WEAK US position frames much of where things are going.
If the Biden administration is ready for a weaker JCPOA or a weaker “less for less” deal or any negotiations that seem to reduce the sense of crisis, even without a deal – then its original idea of improving the JCPOA would seem to be out the window.
Some top Israeli defense figures, including Defense Minister Benny Gantz, have been promoting Israel working quietly behind the scenes to get a better JCPOA, even if it does not get everything it wants – for example, greater limits either on Iran’s ballistic missiles (there are currently none with any teeth) or on its aggression in the region.
But if Washington is not equipped or committed sufficiently to achieve these improvements, then what exactly can Israel hope to get from the US?
Could it be as narrow as what circumstances Biden would green-light an Israeli preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, even if he will not order a strike on his own?
Would Biden give such a sign-off?
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US CENTCOM head General Kenneth McKenzie Jr. this week both emphasized that the US military option is on the table.
Yet, because of Biden’s passivity in using military force to date and his botched pullout from Afghanistan (Trump also intended to pull out, but his assassination of IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani intimidated the ayatollahs more than Biden has to date), many view this as empty talk with no details.
For example, during the Obama administration, US military officials gave public interviews about the readiness to use specific aircraft and weapons – and none have done that yet this round.
POSSIBLE RELUCTANCE on Biden’s part to use force raises the old question, dating back around a decade, of whether Israel has the capability to take out Iran’s deep underground Fordow facility.
There are additional, more recent questions about whether Israel could take out enough of Iran’s multiple nuclear facilities (unlike the cases of Iraq and Syria, where each had only one major facility) on its own to sufficiently set back the program.
Interestingly enough, there was a wide disparity of answers on this question by former top Israeli officials.
Former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said Israel definitely could.
Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo and former Mossad Iran desk chief Sima Shine both said they doubted that Israel could on its own.
Pardo’s successor at the Mossad, who just retired in June, Yossi Cohen, told the Jerusalem Post Conference last month and a Haaretz conference this month that Israel should make sure to have or develop such a capability – leaving his position unclear.
Similarly, former National Security Council chief Yaakov Amidror emphasized that Israel needs to have such a capability, but was vague about whether Israel could do so now.
Former IDF chief (2015-2019) Gadi Eisenkot previously confidently told The Jerusalem Post that Israel could take out Iran’s nuclear program, without specifying how.
Whether the “yes” officials are bluffing to deter Iran or the “no” officials are misinformed or are downplaying Israeli capabilities to deter Jerusalem from rushing to pull the trigger, Bennett, even after this week’s speech, has not made it clear at what point he would strike.
With all of Netanyahu’s tough rhetoric, even he was intimidated from striking Iran for several years when the JCPOA was being negotiated or was operating.
Would Bennett really strike the Islamic Republic if there was a new version of the JCPOA operating, holes and all, but with the US back in the deal?
Would he aggressively use the Mossad to sabotage nuclear facilities and slow down the Islamic Republic as Netanyahu did, even if the delays from such hits might be measured only in months and not in years?
IN ALL of this, there is one factor that is much worse now than in the 2012-2015 period, a factor that led Iran to make at least some big short-term nuclear concessions for the JCPOA.
Then, China and Russia wanted the ayatollahs to make concessions and make the crisis go away.
But now China and Russia are both at new low points with the US, and short of Biden offering some game changer on Taiwan or Ukraine, he may have little to offer them to get them to press Tehran to cut a more reasonable deal.
In short, Israel is entering a period where the overall trends for changing Iranian behavior are worse.
It may need to live with an extended period of uncertainty, as the US and Iran start a new game of chicken, which some think could run deep into 2022.
Exact intelligence from the Mossad and others about how far Iran has advanced will be more crucial than ever in walking the tightrope.
以色列在重啟伊朗核談判之前發起外交閃電戰
甘茨：在伊朗影響我們的合作夥伴並建立我們的軍事實力是我們的責任
通過LAHAV哈爾科夫
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 22:55
2021 年 5 月 24 日，在冠狀病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行期間，伊朗國旗飄揚在國際原子能機構總部所在的聯合國辦公大樓前。
(photo credit: LISI NIESNER/ REUTERS)
廣告
以色列將在周一世界大國恢復與伊朗的核談判之前表明其立場，外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 計劃下周訪問倫敦和巴黎。
拉皮德將與英國首相鮑里斯約翰遜和法國總統埃馬紐埃爾馬克龍會面，討論談判以及以色列與其國家之間的雙邊關係。
美國和伊朗之間的間接會談定於週一在維也納恢復，聯合全面行動計劃的其他各方——俄羅斯、中國、法國、德國、英國和歐盟——將參加。美國尋求回到 2015 年簽署的核協議，而伊朗則表示只會就取消美國製裁而不是核問題進行談判​​。
伊核協議最初達成時就反對，認為它不夠強大，直接為伊朗獲得核武器鋪平了道路，並反對重返協議，認為伊朗核計劃的最新進展——包括 60% 濃縮鈾和鈾金屬的開發，它們沒有可靠的民用用途——使交易的限制變得無關緊要。
國防部長本尼·甘茨呼籲全世界共同努力，確保伊朗不會獲得核武器。
2015 年在維也納達成伊核協議後，來自伊朗和世界六大大國的官員合影留念。（來源：REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA）
甘茨週四在結束對摩洛哥的訪問時說：“在伊朗的背景下，我們有責任影響我們的合作夥伴並進行持續對話。” “我們的第二個責任是建立我們的軍事實力。我命令[以色列國防軍]升級部隊建設。”
甘茨建議維也納的西方談判代表“關注他們想在那裡取得的成果，不要太軟弱……在核發展、發射系統、時間表等方面，一項好的協議將填補現有協議中的漏洞。以及伊朗在該地區的所作所為。”
拜登政府今年早些時候表示，它將尋求延長伊朗協議並增加其限制，但下週的談判並不打算解決任何這些問題，而只是打算不加改變地回到 2015 年伊核協議——並且甚至恢復交易的可能性也令人懷疑。
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國防部長拒絕評論以色列與美國人的分歧，稱討論是閉門進行的。
以色列必須“確保我們與美國過道的雙方進行對話並保持兩黨合作，而不是像過去那樣滑入美國政治，”他說，指的是前總理本傑明內塔尼亞胡與奧巴馬政府的爭端。
與此同時，在維也納，美國周四在國際原子能機構理事會威脅伊朗採取行動。
“如果伊朗的不合作不能立即得到糾正，包括在 JCPOA 議程下提出的問題上——尤其是在卡拉伊恢復知識的連續性，——董事會將別無選擇，只能在今年年底前重新召開特別會議為了應對危機，”美國臨時代辦路易斯 L.博諾告訴國際原子能機構理事會。
IAEA 總幹事拉斐爾·格羅西 (Rafael Grossi) 告訴理事會，他無法與德黑蘭就其機構對伊朗核設施的監督達成協議，發表上述言論。
伊朗不允許國際原子能機構進入卡拉季核設施。此外，該機構和伊朗自 2 月以來一直根據臨時協議開展工作，根據該協議，原子能機構的監視設備將在其他地點運行，但在達成進一步協議之前，該機構將無法訪問這些攝像機的鏡頭。
格羅西說：“該協議的一再延長，現在已經實施了大約九個月，正成為對原子能機構恢復這種知識連續性的能力的重大挑戰。” “[Karaj] 研討會上知識的連續性……已被廣泛認為對於重返 JCPOA 至關重要。”
E3——英國、法國和德國——在國際原子能機構會議上警告說，“由於其驚人的生產速度，伊朗今天的總庫存包含足夠的裂變材料，如果進一步濃縮，可以用來生產不止一種核武器，濃縮 20% 和 60% 的鈾的積累進一步縮短了伊朗取得第一個核武器所需的時間。”
此外，伊朗安裝了先進的離心機外殼，並開發了對在金屬鈾領域生產核武器至關重要的知識。
2021 年 4 月 10 日在伊朗德黑蘭舉行的伊朗國家核能日期間展出了許多新一代伊朗離心機（圖片來源：伊朗總統辦公室/WANA（西亞新聞社）/通過路透社的講義）
“伊朗的持續升級正在不可逆轉地降低 JCPOA 的反擴散價值，”E3 表示。
儘管如此，他們表示，他們相信有可能就伊朗完全遵守 JCPOA 達成協議，並且盡快這樣做符合各方的最佳利益。
伊朗駐國際原子能機構代表 Mohammad Reza Ghaebi 對歐洲國家“不願明確譴責美國非法單方面退出 [退出 JCPOA] 並重新實施制裁”提出異議。他稱退出是當前爭端的根本原因，並且只要美國實施制裁，就期望伊朗保持克制是“不合理的”。
然而，俄羅斯試圖將伊朗排除在 IAEA 議程之外，並淡化了該問題的重要性。
“我們希望，在 2022 年 3 月的原子能機構理事會下屆會議之前，所有懸而未決的問題都將得到解決，並且‘[不擴散核武器條約] 與伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的保障監督協定’項目將永遠被取消。董事會議程，”俄羅斯駐維也納國際組織大使米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫說。
他進一步在推特上寫道，“在 IAEA BoG 中，許多代表團正確地表示，與保障有關的未決問題在議程上停留的時間太長了。這些問題在擴散風險方面沒有什麼實際意義，但卻是一個持續的刺激因素。他們需要澄清和關閉。”
Israel launches diplomatic blitz ahead of renewed Iran nuclear talks
Gantz: It’s our responsibility to influence our partners on Iran and to build our military strength
By LAHAV HARKOV
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 22:55
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021.
(photo credit: LISI NIESNER/ REUTERS)
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Israel will make its position heard ahead of the return to nuclear talks with Iran by world powers on Monday, with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid scheduled to visit London and Paris next week.
Lapid will meet with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the negotiations, as well as bilateral ties between Israel and their countries.
Indirect talks between the US and Iran are set to resume on Monday in Vienna, with the other parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – Russia, China, France, Germany, the UK and the EU – taking part. The US seeks to return to the nuclear deal as it was written in 2015, while Iran has said it will only negotiate the removal of US sanctions and not nuclear matters.
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Israel opposed the JCPOA when it was first reached, arguing that it was not strong enough and directly paved a path for Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, and opposes a return to the deal arguing that recent advances of Iran’s nuclear program – including 60% enriched uranium and the development of uranium metal, which have no credible civilian use – have rendered the deal’s restrictions irrelevant.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz called on the world to
work together to ensure
Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.
OFFICIALS FROM Iran and the six major world powers pose for a group picture after reaching the JCPOA in Vienna in 2015. (credit: REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA)
“It’s our responsibility, in the context of Iran, to influence our partners and hold an ongoing dialogue,” Gantz said at the end of a visit to Morocco on Thursday. “Our second responsibility is to build our military might. I ordered [the IDF] to upgrade force-building.”
Gantz advised the Western negotiators in Vienna to “pay attention to what they want to achieve there and not soften too much… A good deal will plug up the holes in the existing agreement when it comes to nuclear developments, launching systems, its timeline, and what Iran does in the region.”
The Biden administration said earlier this year that it would seek to lengthen the Iran Deal and increase its restrictions, but the negotiations next week are not meant to address any of those issues, and are only meant to return to the 2015 JCPOA without changes – and even the possibility of returning to that deal is in doubt.
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The defense minister declined to comment on Israeli disagreements with the Americans, saying the discussions take place behind closed doors.
Israel must “make sure we talk to both sides of the aisle in the US and stay bipartisan, and not slide into American politics as we did in the past,” he said, referring to former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s disputes with the Obama administration.
Meanwhile, in Vienna, the US threatened Iran with action at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors on Thursday.
“If Iran’s non-cooperation is not immediately remedied, including on the issues raised under the JCPOA agenda – especially the restoration of continuity of knowledge at karaj, –the Board will have no choice but to reconvene in extraordinary session before the end of this year in order to address the crisis,” US Charge d’Affaires Louis L. Bono told the IAEA Board of Governors.
The remarks came after IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told the Board of Governors that he was unable to reach an agreement with Tehran on his agency’s supervision of Iranian nuclear sites.
Iran has not allowed the IAEA access to the Karaj nuclear site. In addition, the agency and Iran have been working under an interim agreement since February, under which IAEA surveillance equipment would be operative at other sites, but the agency would not be able to access the footage from those cameras until a further agreement was reached.
“The repeated prolongation of the agreement, which has now been in place for around nine months, is becoming a significant challenge to the Agency’s ability to restore this continuity of knowledge,” Grossi said. “Continuity of knowledge at the [Karaj] workshop…has been widely recognized as essential in relation to a return to the JCPOA.”
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The E3 – the UK, France and Germany – warned at the IAEA meeting that “as a result of its alarming pace of production, Iran’s total stockpile today contains enough fissile material that if enriched further could be used to produce more than one nuclear weapon, and accumulation of uranium enriched at 20% and 60% is further reducing the time Iran would take to break out toward a first nuclear weapon.”
In addition, Iran installed advanced centrifuge envelopment and developed knowledge critical to producing a nuclear weapon in the field of uranium metal.
A number of new generation Iranian centrifuges are seen on display during Iran's National Nuclear Energy Day in Tehran, Iran April 10, 2021 (credit: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY OFFICE/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
“Iran’s continued escalations are irreversibly reducing the counter-proliferation value of the JCPOA,” the E3 stated.
Still, they said, they are convinced that it is possible to reach an agreement for Iran to fully comply with the JCPOA, and that it is in the best interest of all parties to do so soon.
Iranian representative at the IAEA Mohammad Reza Ghaebi took issue with the European states being “unwilling to clearly condemn the illegal unilateral withdrawal of US [from the JCPOA] and re-imposition of its sanctions.” He called that withdrawal the root cause of the current dispute, and that it was “unreasonable” to expect restraint from Iran as long as US sanctions are in place.
Russia, however, sought to get Iran off the IAEA agenda and downplayed the issue’s importance.
“We hope that by the next session of the IAEA Board of Governors in March 2022, all the outstanding issues will be resolved and the item ‘[Non-Proliferation Treaty] Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran’ will be forever taken off the Board agenda,” said Russian Ambassador to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov.
He further tweeted that “in the IAEA BoG many delegations rightly say that safeguards-related outstanding issues remain on the agenda for too long. These issues have little practical meaning in terms of proliferation risks but serve as a constant irritant. They need to be clarified and closed.”
澳大利亞推出有爭議的宗教反歧視法案
該立法將允許基於信仰的團體優先僱用和招募他們宗教的人。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 08:39
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 09:58
西澳大利亞最高法院。
（圖片來源：維基共享資源）
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澳大利亞週四向議會提出了有爭議的宗教反歧視立法，如果獲得批准，該立法將允許宗教組織優先招聘和招募有信仰的人。
自 2017 年同性婚姻合法化以來，宗教自由一直是澳大利亞的焦點。
澳大利亞總理斯科特·莫里森 (Scott Morrison) 表示，這項舉措被視為針對宗教選民，而距離選舉還有幾個月，他表示，該立法將保護在工作場所以外表達宗教信仰的人，只要這不會對他們的雇主造成經濟損失。
“人們不應該因為他們的信仰與其他人不同而被取消、迫害或誹謗，”虔誠的五旬節派基督徒莫里森在議會下議院介紹該法案時說。
莫里森表示，立法還將保護做出“信仰聲明”的澳大利亞人免受歧視法的侵害，但前提是這些聲明不會“威脅、恐嚇、騷擾或誹謗個人或團體”。
澳大利亞總理斯科特·莫里森於 2018 年 11 月 16 日在澳大利亞達爾文舉行的 INPEX 晚宴上發表講話（圖片來源：DAVID MOIR/POOL VIA REUTERS）
澳大利亞現行的《性別歧視法》允許學校以同性戀為由開除學生或解僱教師。莫里森在 2018 年承諾改革立法。
LGBT團體支持改革該法案，但批評新法案，稱它會導致對同性戀學生和教師的歧視，因為它允許優先考慮基於信仰的人的招聘和入學。
“它將取消對婦女、殘疾人、LGBTIQ+ 人群，甚至有信仰的人的艱苦保護，”澳大利亞平等代表機構首席執行官安娜·布朗說。
該法案還使議會分裂，一些保守的政府立法者威脅要投票反對該立法，直到莫里森採取行動廢除要求 COVID-19 疫苗的州授權。
預計該立法將於下週在下議院進行投票，但遠不能保證通過成為法律。預計該法案將在 2022-23 年某個時候在上議院參議院投票之前進行審查。
澳大利亞議會是今年最後一次開會，莫里森可能會在 2022 年復會前召集選舉。莫里森必須在 2022 年 5 月之前重返民意調查。
Australia introduces contentious religious anti-discrimination bill
The legislation would allow faith-based groups to prioritize hiring and enrolling people of their religion.
By REUTERS
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 08:39
Updated: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 09:58
The Supreme Court of Western Australia.
(photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)
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Australia on Thursday introduced contentious religious anti-discrimination legislation to parliament that if approved would allow faith-based organizations to prioritize the hiring and enrolment of people from their faith.
Religious freedom has been in the spotlight in Australia since same-sex marriage was legalized in 2017.
In a move seen as targeting religious voters with an election just months away, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the legislation would protect people who express their religious faith outside of the workplace as long as it did not cause financial damage to their employer.
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"People should not be canceled or persecuted or vilified because their beliefs are different from someone else's," said Morrison, a devout Pentecostal Christian, while introducing the bill in the parliament's lower house.
Morrison said the legislation would also protect Australians who make "statements of belief" from discrimination laws, but only if those statements do not "threaten, intimidate, harass or vilify a person or group."
Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks during the INPEX Gala Dinner in Darwin, Australia November 16, 2018 (credit: DAVID MOIR/POOL VIA REUTERS)
Australia's existing Sex Discrimination Act allows schools to expel students or sack teachers for being gay. Morrison pledged in 2018 to reform the legislation.
LGBT groups support reforming the Act but have criticized the new bill saying it would enable discrimination against gay students and teachers as it permits prioritizing the hiring and enrolment of people based on faith.
"It will wind back hard-fought protections for women, people with disability, LGBTIQ+ people, and even people of faith," said Anna Brown, chief executive of the representative body, Equality Australia.
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The bill has also divided the parliament, with some conservative government lawmakers threatening to vote against the legislation until Morrison moves to abolish state mandates requiring COVID-19 vaccines.
The legislation is expected to be put to a vote next week in the lower house, but it is far from guaranteed to pass into law. The bill is expected to be reviewed before being voted on in the upper house Senate sometime in 2022-23.
Australia's parliament is in its last sitting fortnight for the year and Morrison could call an election before it resumes in 2022. Morrison must return to the polls by May 2022.
K-pop 團體在拍攝照片中使用納粹標誌引發強烈反對
K-pop 組合 PURPLE KISS 的一名成員在 2022 年的季節問候套餐期間在她的衣服上展示了 Pateiadler，這是一隻抓著納粹的鷹的納粹象徵。
通過AARON REICH
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 09:49
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 09:52
德國柏林德意志歷史博物館展出的帶有納粹標誌的納粹臂章
（圖片來源：維基共享資源）
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K-pop 組合 PURPLE KISS 引發了爭議，當時一張全女性組合的一名成員戴著納粹標誌的照片在網上流傳。
有問題的圖像由該組織的標籤 RBW 分享，作為他們 2022 賽季問候套餐的一部分。
有問題的成員 Goeun 穿著類似於刻板的戰鬥機飛行員服裝。她穿著一件綠色上衣，襯衫口袋上方寫著美國空軍。然而，在下面是 Pateiadler，一隻程式化的展翅鷹，頭部朝左，爪子抓著一個卐字符。
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這引發了社交媒體對 PURPLE KISS 和 RBW 的強烈反對，因為他們認為他們不敏感。
在這場爭議之後，這些照片被撤下並進行了編輯，以包括一隻普通的鷹代替 Pateiadler。
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RBW 在該集團官方粉絲咖啡廳網站上的一份聲明中說：“我們對在 2022 年季節問候照片拍攝期間沒有對藝術家所穿的所有服裝和配飾進行徹底檢查而引起的擔憂表示誠摯的歉意。”
“這個問題的責任完全在我們，藝術家的機構，因為我們沒有詳細審查服裝。我們深刻反思沒有更加小心敏感的歷史問題。考慮到拍攝時的情況，我們'我想明確聲明，這起事件的責任不在於藝人。”
他們補充說：“我們將確保我們所有員工在未來密切關注歷史問題”，並“對我們在這個問題上造成的麻煩表示最深切的歉意。”
圍繞 PURPLE KISS 的爭議，這是一個新的 K-pop 組合，去年剛出道，在亞洲也出現了類似的關於使用納粹圖像的爭議之後。
10 月，日本大阪市一家以納粹為主題的東道主俱樂部激起了公憤，導致其關閉，並為員工缺乏“意識”而道歉。
被稱為不公平的東道主俱樂部——日本的一種歌舞表演式夜總會，有魅力的男人在那裡提供飲料、唱歌和與顧客交談——在幾個主辦網站上做廣告，俱樂部的東道主身著全套納粹角色扮演。
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社交媒體平台上的用戶分享了俱樂部的視頻和圖片，其中不僅包括打扮成納粹的主持人，還有用納粹標誌覆蓋的宣傳材料——甚至酒瓶上也印有納粹標誌。
K-pop group's use of Nazi symbol in photoshoot sparks backlash
One of the members of K-pop group PURPLE KISS sported a Pateiadler, a Nazi symbol of an eagle clutching a swastika, on her clothes during the 2022 Season's Greeting package.
By AARON REICH
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 09:49
Updated: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 09:52
A Nazi armband with a swastika displayed in the Deutsches Historisches Museum, Berlin, Germany
(photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)
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K-pop group PURPLE KISS sparked controversy when a picture circulated online of one of the members of the all-female group wearing a Nazi symbol.
The image in question was shared by the group's label, RBW, as part of their 2022 Season's Greeting package.
The member in question, Goeun, was seen dressed in what was meant to resemble stereotypical fighter pilot attire. She wore a green top with US Air Force written above the shirt pocket. Underneath, however, was the Pateiadler, a stylized wing-spread eagle with the head facing left and a swastika clutched in its talons.
This sparked backlash on social media against PURPLE KISS and RBW for their perceived insensitivity.
Following this controversy, the pictures were taken down and edited to include a generic eagle in place of the Pateiadler.
"We sincerely apologize for raising concerns by not doing a thorough inspection of all the outfits and accessories worn by the artist during the 2022 Season’s Greetings photoshoot beforehand," RBW said in a statement on the group's official fan cafe website.
"The responsibility of this issue rests entirely on us, the artist’s agency, as we have failed to review the outfit in detail. We are deeply reflecting on not having been more careful about sensitive historical issues. Considering the situation at the photoshoot, we’d like to clearly state that the responsibility of this incident is not on the artist."
They added that "we will make sure all the members of our staff pay close attention to historical issues in the future" and expressed "our deepest apologies for the trouble that we have caused with this issue."
The controversy surrounding PURPLE KISS, a new K-pop group that debuted just last year, comes following similar controversies in Asia regarding the use of Nazi imagery.
In October, a Nazi-themed host club in the Japanese city of Osaka sparked outrage, leading to it shutting down and issuing an apology for the lack of "awareness" among the staff.
Dubbed Unfair, the host club — a type of cabaret-esque nightclub in Japan where attractive men serve drinks, sing and engage in conversations with customers — had advertised itself on several host sites with the club's hosts dressed in full Nazi cosplay.
Users on social media platforms shared videos and pictures of the club, featuring not only hosts dressed as Nazis, but promotional materials covered in Swastikas — even bottles of alcohol displayed swastikas on them.
隨著內戰的肆虐，埃塞俄比亞的移民決議仍懸而未決
多個消息來源報告說，猶太人社區的成員和猶太人的後裔被強行徵召入伍。
作者：傑瑞米·沙龍
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 19:15
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 21:47
2007 年，起源於猶太教的埃塞俄比亞兒童在等待移民到以色列的過程中從窗戶望向貝塔以色列學校，2007 年。
（圖片來源：埃莉安娜·阿蓬特/路透社）
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內閣部長尚未敲定政府決議，以加快埃塞俄比亞猶太人社區和猶太人後裔的移民速度，因為該國內戰正在惡化，並且不斷有報導稱一些社區成員被強制徵兵。
本月早些時候，阿利亞和融合部長 Pnina Tamano-Shata 和內政部長 Ayelet Shaked 宣布，由於埃塞俄比亞激烈的內戰，他們已同意快速跟踪這些社區的 5,000 名成員的移民。
但 Shaked 的一位發言人周四表示，根據正在起草的政府決議，現在將允許移居以色列的人數為 3,000；與他所說的一致的是組成現任政府的聯合協議中的數字。
財政部還表示，目前的決議將只提供3000人的移民。據認為，政府決議將為周日的內閣會議做好準備，但周四發布的內閣議程初稿並未包括該決議。
埃塞俄比亞的內戰在一年前開始，埃塞俄比亞國防軍最初成功進攻提格雷北部地區，但提格雷人民解放陣線（TPLF）的反攻已深入阿姆哈拉地區。
2021 年 11 月 14 日，埃塞俄比亞 - 以色列人在耶路撒冷政府大樓外抗議，要求營救他們的親屬並將其帶到該國。（圖片來源：對方提供）
據《衛報》報導，TPLF 本週表示，它已經佔領了僅 220 公里的 Shewa Robit 鎮。（137 英里）從首都亞的斯亞貝巴出發，總理阿比艾哈邁德在推特上宣布他將前往前線領導國家防禦。
由於持續的戰爭，美國、法國和德國政府都呼籲本國國民立即離開埃塞俄比亞。
埃塞俄比亞的多個消息來源和與埃塞俄比亞社區有密切聯繫的以色列活動人士告訴《耶路撒冷郵報》，猶太人社區的成員和猶太人的後裔已被強行徵入埃塞俄比亞國防軍。
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隨著埃塞俄比亞軍隊的處境日益惡化，政府越來越多地使用強制徵兵來加強其武裝力量，其中許多人被派往前線，這一政策也影響了猶太人社區和猶太人後裔。
據北部城市貢德爾的一位不願透露姓名的消息人士稱，已經起草了 60 至 70 名社區成員。
然而，該消息人士補充說，由於戰爭和食品價格上漲導致工作崗位短缺，社區中的一些年輕人實際上自願入伍以獲得軍隊工資。
該市的另一位消息人士證實，社區成員已被強制徵召入伍，但無法估計有多少人。
據信，一些被選中的人已經在前線。
然而，關於社區成員強制徵兵的說法難以核實。
Gondar 的一個消息來源還提到，僅在上個月，就有三名社區成員被綁架以勒索贖金，因為犯罪分子和民兵認為，猶太人社區的成員和猶太人的後裔能夠祈求相對較高的贖金，因為他們自在以色列有親戚。
在所有情況下都支付了贖金並釋放了人質，儘管這些報告也難以核實。
幾位專家和活動家表示，社區成員一般不會比其他人面臨更大的危險，儘管戰鬥的激烈程度意味著平民一般確實面臨重大危險，如果 TPLF 達到，這種危險將顯著加劇亞的斯等大城市。
然而，由於種族背景，亞的斯猶太后裔社區中的 750-800 名提格雷人面臨更高的風險。
然而，猶太人和猶太后裔社區在經濟上特別脆弱，他們多年前從他們的祖先村莊搬到亞的斯和貢德爾，期待移民到以色列，但他們現在缺乏經濟穩定和支持。
食品價格上漲加劇了他們的處境。
“以色列政府沒有採取任何措施來確保 Beta Israel 的安全和最低生活條件，其中成千上萬的人將成為以色列未來的公民，”拯救埃塞俄比亞猶太人的鬥爭 (SSEJ) 主席約瑟夫·費特 (Joseph Feit) 說。 .
“沒有任何部長或下級官員通過聯繫在埃塞俄比亞政府註冊的非政府組織 SSEJ 來了解實際情況，該非政府組織在當地為社區提供日常人道主義援助……
“這種對貧困猶太社區福祉和他們處於危險境地真相的無情無視不會對未來來自歐洲或北美的以色列公民表現出來。”
根據 2010 年制定的名單，埃塞俄比亞有 5,000 名猶太人後裔社區成員，他們從 2015 年起被列入政府第 716 號決定，可能有資格移民到以色列。
活動人士聲稱，由於自然增長，該社區現在還有 4,000 人，儘管以色列官員從未審查過他們的移民資格要求。
自該名單于 2010 年制定以來，另一個聲稱來自 Gojjam 地區的 5,340 人的猶太母親血統的社區也要求移民到以色列。他們對猶太人身份的要求得到了高級宗教猶太復國主義拉比的批准，例如拉比 Yaakov Medan 和拉比 Re'em HaCohen。
所有來自埃塞俄比亞的移民現在都基於家庭團聚法，而不是返回權，因為國家評估的那些聲稱只有猶太血統的人，他們的祖先在 19 世紀後期在脅迫下皈依了基督教。
對埃塞俄比亞持續移民的批評者表示，現在應該結束基於家庭團聚的移民，因為這將導致新移民親屬的移民申請永無止境。
Immigration resolution from Ethiopia still pending as civil war rages
Multiple sources report members of the community of Jews and descendants of Jews have been forcibly drafted into the Ethiopian army.
By JEREMY SHARON
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 19:15
Updated: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 21:47
ETHIOPIAN CHILDREN, whose roots trace back to Judaism, look out of a window at a Beta Israel school while awaiting immigration to Israel, in Gondar in 2007.
(photo credit: ELIANA APONTE/REUTERS)
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Cabinet ministers are yet to finalize a government resolution for the expedited immigration of the community of Jews and descendants of Jews in Ethiopia, as the civil war in the country worsens and amid ongoing reports of forced military conscription of some community members.
Earlier this month, Aliyah and Integration Minister Pnina Tamano-Shata and Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked announced they had agreed to fast-track the immigration of 5,000 members of these communities due to the fierce civil war in Ethiopia.
But a spokesman for Shaked said on Thursday that the number of people who will be allowed to move to Israel under the government resolution that is being drafted will now be 3,000; in line with what he said were figures in the coalition agreement that formed the current government.
The Finance Ministry also stated that the current resolution will only provide for the immigration of 3,000 people. It was thought that the government resolution would be ready for Sunday’s cabinet meeting, but initial drafts of the cabinet’s agenda issued on Thursday did not include the resolution.
The civil war in Ethiopia began a year ago with an initially successful offensive by the Ethiopian National Defense Force into the northern region of Tigray, but a counter-offensive by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has pushed deep into the Amhara region.
Ethiopian-Israelis protest outside government buildings in Jerusalem, demanding that their relatives be rescues and brought to the country, on November 14, 2021. (credit: Courtesy)
According to a report in the Guardian, the TPLF said this week it had captured the town of Shewa Robit, just 220 km. (137 miles) by road from the capital Addis Ababa, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared on Twitter that he was going to the battlefront to lead the defense of the country.
And the governments of the US, France and Germany have all called on their nationals to leave Ethiopia immediately because of the ongoing war.
Multiple sources in Ethiopia and activists in Israel with close ties to the communities in Ethiopia have told The Jerusalem Post that members of the community of Jews and descendants of Jews have been forcibly drafted into the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
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As the Ethiopian army’s position has worsened, the government has increasingly used forcible conscription to bolster its armed forces, many of whom are sent to the battle front, and this policy has affected those in the community of Jews and descendants of Jews as well.
According to one source in the northern city of Gondar who spoke on condition of anonymity, between 60 and 70 members of the community there have been drafted.
The source added however that some youths in the community have actually volunteered to enlist in order to obtain an army salary, due to a scarcity of jobs because of the war and rising food prices.
Another source in the city confirmed that members of the community have been forcibly conscripted, but was unable to estimate how many.
It is believed that some of those who have been drafted are already at the battlefront.
Claims regarding the forced conscription of members of the community are however difficult to verify.
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ONE SOURCE in Gondar also mentioned that in the last month alone three members of the community had been kidnapped for the purposes of ransom, since criminals and militias believe members of the community of Jews and descendants of Jews are able to pray relatively high ransoms since they have relatives in Israel.
In all cases ransoms were paid and the hostages released, although these reports are also difficult to verify.
Several experts and activists have said that members of the communities are generally not in greater danger than the rest of the population, although the intensity of the fighting means that civilians in general do face significant dangers which will be significantly exacerbated if and when the TPLF reaches major cities such as Addis.
A group of 750-800 Tigrayans in the community of Jewish descendants in Addis are at higher risk however due to their ethnic background.
The community of Jews and Jewish descendants is, however, particularly vulnerable economically, having moved many years ago from their ancestral villages to Addis and Gondar in anticipation of emigrating to Israel, but who now lack economic stability and support.
Rising food prices have exacerbated their situation.
“The government of Israel has not taken any steps to ensure the safety and minimal living conditions of the Beta Israel, many thousands of whom will be future citizens of Israel,” said Joseph Feit, chairman of the Struggle to Save Ethiopian Jewry (SSEJ).
“No minister or lower level official has bothered to find out the actual facts by contacting SSEJ, the NGO registered with the Ethiopian government, which is on the ground, providing daily humanitarian assistance to the communities….
“This callous disregard for the well-being of a destitute Jewish community and for the truth of their imperiled situation would not be displayed toward future Israeli citizens from Europe or North America.”
There are 5,000 members of the community of descendants of Jews remaining in Ethiopia who were included in government decision 716 from 2015 as potentially eligible for immigration to Israel, based on lists drawn up in 2010.
Activists claim that there are now another 4,000 people in this community as a result of natural growth, although their claims of eligibility for immigration have never been examined by Israeli officials.
Since the list was drawn up in 2010, another community claiming maternal Jewish descent of 5,340 people from the Gojjam region has also requested to immigrate to Israel. Their claims to Jewish status have been approved by senior religious-Zionist rabbis such as Rabbi Yaakov Medan and Rabbi Re’em HaCohen.
All immigration from Ethiopia is now based on family reunification laws, not the right of return, since those with claims the state has evaluated are only of paternal Jewish descent and their ancestors converted to Christianity under duress in the late 19th century.
Critics of ongoing immigration from Ethiopia have said that immigration on the basis of family reunification should now be ended since it will create a never-ending chain of claims for immigration from the relatives of new immigrants.
以色列在內塔尼亞胡時代失去的十年外交——分析
以色列外交取得了前所未有的成功，擺脫了內塔尼亞胡最後幾年執政的混亂局面。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 16:18
6 月 13 日，在以色列議會對新聯盟進行投票後，反對黨領袖本傑明·內塔尼亞胡與總理納夫塔利·貝內特握手。
（圖片來源：RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS）
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以色列新政府執政六個月，外交成就大踏步前進。艾薩克·赫爾佐格總統本週會見了英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜，而國防部長本尼·甘茨則前往摩洛哥，在那裡簽署了具有歷史意義的諒解備忘錄。
象徵性和富有成效的外國訪問是以色列外交領域更廣泛革命的一部分。
今天，曾經主導前總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡與外交部關係的有毒關係似乎已經消失。現任政府似乎運作良好，使國防部長、外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 和其他人能夠取得自己的成功，而不是阻礙部長們的出訪，以免他們從總理那里奪走聚光燈。
這個運作良好的政府反映了以色列人已經習慣了十年的混亂。由於內塔尼亞胡在政治上統治了這麼長時間，而且因為他是在第二次起義的黑暗歲月之後出現的，當時以色列的阿里爾·沙龍在許多西方首都被視為有爭議的，以色列人已經習慣了以色列在各國中的地位的想法主要是在與美國或印度、中國等國家或更右傾的政府（如匈牙利領導人）會晤。以色列因成為新興的威權世界秩序的一部分而受到譴責，而以色列似乎樂於服從。
2021 年 11 月 8 日，以色列議會反對黨領袖本傑明·內塔尼亞胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）。（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST）
今天的情況有所不同。
混亂已經過去，破壞外交部的企圖停止了，總理不再持有35個外交任命，現在有實際預算，無休止的選舉混亂減少了。
看著甘茨抵達摩洛哥令人震驚。他參觀了穆罕默德五世國王陵墓並獻了花圈。他受到了榮譽、盛況和環境的歡迎。他會見了摩洛哥武裝部隊監察長，並與國防部長代表、外交部長和國防機構官員共進午餐。根據他的行程記錄，他還看到了一個空降旅並會見了外交部長，並去了一個猶太教堂。
在摩洛哥之行前一周，外交部長幫助確保兩名在土耳其被拘留的以色列遊客獲釋。外交似乎奏效了，而不是一場巨大的危機、威脅和呼喊。我們仍然不知道它是如何或為什麼被平滑的。報導稱，以色列一直等到宣布拘留哈馬斯牢房，直到獲釋。無論哪種方式，讓以色列人回家都是一次令人印象深刻和謙虛的嘗試。
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預計拉皮德將在未來幾天前往倫敦和巴黎進行正式訪問。此外，以色列將英國品牌哈馬斯視為恐怖組織，澳大利亞也將其視為真主黨。這些都是重要的成就。
拉皮德還接待了美國駐聯合國大使琳達·托馬斯-格林菲爾德（Linda Thomas-Greenfield），此次訪問進展順利。沒有對聯合國的譁眾取寵或抨擊。她被視為“以色列真正的朋友，在國際社會更複雜的舞台上與我們並肩作戰”。
“這種友誼不僅基於共同的利益，而且基於共同的價值觀和共同的世界觀。我們感謝大使的訪問，並很高興在以色列接待她，”拉皮德說。
她的訪問是與美國政府的許多重要互動之一。美國國家安全顧問傑克沙利文接待了他的同行埃亞爾胡拉塔。貝內特分別於 10 月和 8 月去過莫斯科和華盛頓。
與美國海軍陸戰隊進行了聯合訓練演習，與八個國家聚集在以色列的令人印象深刻的藍旗演習，以及與美國、阿聯酋和巴林的海軍演習。英國的 F-35 飛行員也來與以色列人一起訓練，以色列與六個國家舉辦了無人機演習。國際演習與合作的節奏似乎是歷史性的，史無前例的。以色列從未在如此短的時間內接待過如此多的國家。
這被最近與埃及和約旦的關係的積極增長所限制。以色列和約旦簽署了一項具有前瞻性且專注於太陽能的能源協議。與兩年前約旦取消以色列對兩個邊境飛地的租約相比，這是一個巨大的變化。
不久前，以色列在三月份與約旦王儲引發了爭議。現在關係正在增長。據以色列外交部稱，經濟部長奧爾娜·巴爾比瓦伊和約旦工業、貿易和供應部長優素福·阿爾沙馬利十年來首次在約旦會面，並討論了最近加强两國經濟聯繫的各種方式。
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然後是與埃及的會談，旨在為埃及改善在西奈半島的力量鋪平道路。埃及和以色列於 11 月初舉行了罕見的公開會議。以色列同意埃及將更多部隊轉移到西奈半島，這是一個敏感地區，在埃及-以色列和平條約中有規定該半島部隊規模的條款。雖然埃及和以色列私下多年來一直保持著積極的安全關係，但公開會議是關係的新篇章。
以色列與阿聯酋和巴林的關係也出現了同樣的趨勢。雖然內塔尼亞胡在阿聯酋摸索、計劃和取消了三場會議，但新政府已經緩和了關係，並使它們顯得正常和明智。沒有譁眾取寵。只是雙邊訪問。
肯定會有爭議。報導稱，以色列和比利時在比利時為來自定居點的以色列產品貼上標籤的問題上存在分歧。與土耳其的關係仍不明確。中以關係可能走向更冷的未來，這不僅是因為美國反對中國在以色列的戰略領域投資，還因為中國在 5 月加沙戰爭期間猛烈抨擊以色列以及中國與伊朗的合作更加密切。可能會出現其他問題。
2021 年 11 月 8 日，外交部長 Yair Lapid 和反對派領導人 Benjamin Netanyahu 在以色列議會。（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST）
然而，顯而易見的是，十多年來內塔尼亞胡的執政時代侵蝕了與許多國家的關係。
這並不總是他的錯。他被視為極右全球趨勢的一部分，經常受到西方左翼甚至中間派人士的憎恨。他也受到了批評者的歡迎，他的語氣和他的黨派支持者發表了冒犯性的評論，甚至沒有口頭上表示想要聽取自由派批評者的意見。
然而，他也是以色列孤立的建築師。
雖然以色列確實在亞伯拉罕協議和其他問題上取得了進展，內塔尼亞胡在該地區、亞洲和東歐受到尊重，但他所領導的政府往往存在著功能失調的陰暗面。他接管了政府的許多職務，將權力集中在他的辦公室，從而使外交部資源匱乏。
例如，雖然以色列表示希望在非洲做更多事情，並且進行了歷史性訪問，但幾乎沒有後續行動。內塔尼亞胡似乎想自己做所有事情，無論是訪問乍得或阿曼，這兩個都是歷史性的，還是與新的蘇丹政權建立聯繫。缺乏建立深厚的關係。內塔尼亞胡關於世界尊重強者而弱者消失的論點對某些人來說很有效，但以色列可以為世界提供的不僅僅是炫耀它的肌肉。
本地區和世界各國重視雙邊關係和部長互訪的象徵意義，而不僅僅是最高領導人的個人交往。伊朗等以色列的對手知道這一點，他們傾向於以經典的克勞塞維茨方式利用政府的各個方面來實現他們的目標。
關係密切的國家將有無數次重要訪問，而甘茨抵達摩洛哥等盛大訪問對於展示以色列可以在沒有爭議的情況下建立更緊密的關係很重要。這些是成為世界關鍵參與者的基石，不僅僅是 F-35 和鐵穹、高科技和網絡。
聯合國論壇很重要，即使在其他人批評以色列時，發揮作用也很重要。
1993 年，內塔尼亞胡寫了一本書，名為《國家間的一個地方：以色列和世界》，他在書中描繪了以色列與該地區和西方的關係。對於內塔尼亞胡的所有禮物，以及他對以色列可以在亞洲、非洲和東歐找到更親密朋友的理解，他經常錯過將責任委派給其他人並讓其他人建立這些聯繫的機會。就外交而言，現任以色列政府在六個月內所做的工作似乎比以色列在過去六年中所做的還要多。
Israel's lost decade of diplomacy during the Netanyahu years - analysis
Israeli diplomacy has achieved unprecedented success, freed from the chaos of Netanyahu's last years in power.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 16:18
Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu shakes hands with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett following the vote on the new coalition in the Knesset on June 13.
(photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
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Israel’s new government has been in power for six months and it is hitting its stride in diplomatic achievements. President Isaac Herzog met British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week while Defense Minister Benny Gantz traveled to Morocco where a historic Memorandum of Understanding was signed.
The symbolic and productive foreign visits are part of a wider-ranging revolution in Israeli diplomacy.
Today, the toxic relationship that once dominated former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s relationship with the foreign ministry, appears to be gone. Instead of ministers being stymied on their foreign trips, lest they take away the spotlight from the Prime Minister, the current government appears to function well, enabling the Defense Minister, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and others to have their own successes.
This functioning government holds up a mirror to the decade of disfunction that Israelis became used to. Because Netanyahu dominated politics for such a long time, and because he came in the wake of the dark years of the Second Intifada when Israel’s Ariel Sharon was seen as controversial in many western capitals, Israelis got used to the idea that Israel’s place among the nations was primarily in meetings with the US, or with countries like India, China, or more right-leaning governments, like the leader of Hungary. Israel was castigated for being part of the emerging authoritarian world order, and Israel appeared happy to oblige.
Opposition head Benjamin Netanyahu at the Knesset, November 8, 2021. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
Today things are different.
Gone is the chaos, attempts to undermine the Foreign Ministry have stopped, the Prime Minister is no longer holding up 35 diplomatic appointments, there is an actual budget now and the chaos of endless elections has been reduced.
Watching Gantz arrive in Morocco was striking. He visited the Mausoleum of King Mohammed V and laid a wreath. He was received with honor and pomp and circumstance. He met the Inspector General of Morocco’s Armed Forces and had lunch with the Minister Delegate of National Defense, Minister of Foreign Affairs and officials in the defense establishment. He also saw an airborne brigade and met the foreign minister, as well as going to a synagogue, according to readouts of his itinerary.
A week before the Morocco trip, the Foreign Minister had helped secure the release of two Israeli tourists detained in Turkey. Instead of a huge crisis and threats and shouting, it appears diplomacy worked. We still don’t know how or why it was smoothed over. Reports said that Israel had waited to announce the detention of a Hamas cell until after the release. Either way, it was an impressive and modest attempt to get Israelis home.
Lapid is expected to depart for an official visit to London and Paris in the coming days. In addition, Israel has seen the UK brand Hamas a terrorist group and Australia has done the same with Hezbollah. These are important achievements.
Lapid also hosted US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield in a visit that went well. There was no grandstanding or bashing of the UN. She was welcomed as a “true friend of Israel who fights shoulder-to-shoulder with us in one of the more complicated arenas in the international community.
"This friendship is based not only on shared interests but also on shared values and a shared worldview. We thank the Ambassador for her visit and are happy to host her in Israel," Lapid said.
Her visit is one of many important interactions with the US administration. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has hosted his counterpart Eyal Hulata. Bennett has been to Moscow and Washington in October and August respectively.
There have been joint training drills with the US Marines, an impressive Blue Flag exercise with eight countries gathered in Israel, and a naval drill with the US, UAE and Bahrain. UK F-35 pilots have also come to train with Israelis and Israel hosted a drone drill with a half-dozen countries. The tempo of international exercises and cooperation appears to be historic and unprecedented. Never before has Israel hosted so many countries in such a short period of time.
This is capped off by the recent positive growth in ties with Egypt and Jordan. Israel and Jordan have signed an energy deal that is forward-looking and focused on solar power. This is a huge change from just two years ago when Jordan canceled Israel’s lease on two border enclaves.
It wasn’t long ago when Israel caused a controversy with Jordan’s crown prince in March. Now ties are growing. Economy Minister Orna Barbivai and Jordanian Minister of Industry, Trade and Supply Yousef Alshamali met in Jordan for the first time in a decade, and discussed a variety of ways to strengthen economic ties between the two countries recently, according to Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Then there are the talks with Egypt aimed at smoothing the way for Egypt to improve its forces in Sinai. Egypt and Israel held a rare public meeting in early November. Israel agreed to Egypt moving more forces to Sinai, a sensitive area that has clauses in the Egypt-Israel peace treaty which regulate troop sizes in the peninsula. While Egypt and Israel had positive security ties for years privately, the public meetings are a new leaf in relations.
The same trend is occurring with Israeli ties with the UAE and Bahrain. While Netanyahu fumbled, planning and canceling three meetings in the UAE, the new government has smoothed ties and made them appear normal and sensible. No grandstanding. Just bilateral visits.
There are sure to be controversies on the horizon. Israel and Belgium are at loggerheads over Belgium labeling Israeli products from the settlements, reports say. The ties with Turkey still lack clarity. China-Israel ties may be heading for a colder future, not only due to US opposition to China’s investments in strategic areas in Israel, but also after China slammed Israel during the May war in Gaza and as China works more closely with Iran. Other issues may arise.
Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and opposition head Benjamin Netanyahu at the Knesset, November 8, 2021. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
However, what is clear is that for more than a decade Netanyahu’s era in power eroded ties with many countries.
This was not always his fault. He was perceived as being part of a far-right global trend and was often hated by those on the left, and even the center, in the West. He also played into the hands of the critics, with his tone and his party loyalists making offensive comments or not even paying lip service to wanting to listen to liberal critics.
However, he was also an architect of Israel’s isolation.
While Israel did make progress on the Abraham Accords and other issues, and Netanyahu was respected in the region, in Asia and eastern Europe, there was often a dark side of disfunction to the governments he ran. He took over numerous portfolios in government, centralizing power in his office, and thus leaving the foreign ministry starved for resources.
While Israel said it wanted to do more in Africa, for instance, and there were historic visits, there was little follow-up. Netanyahu seemed to want to do everything himself, whether it was the trip to Chad or Oman, both of which were historic, or opening ties with the new Sudan regime. There was a lack of building deep relationships. Netanyahu’s argument that the world respects the powerful, while the weak vanish, played well to some, but Israel has a lot more to offer the world than only showing off its muscles.
Countries in the region and around the world value the symbolism of bilateral ties and visits by ministers, not just the person-to-person ties of the top leaders. Israel’s adversaries such as Iran know this and they tend to make use of all aspects of government to achieve their goals, in a classic Clausewitz fashion.
Countries that have strong ties will have numerous important visits, and the pageantry of visits such as Gantz arriving in Morocco is important to showcase that Israel can have closer ties without controversy. These are the building blocks of being a key player in the world, not just F-35s and Iron Dome, hi-tech and cyber.
UN forums matter, and playing a role, even when others critique Israel, is important.
In 1993, Netanyahu wrote a book called A Place Among the Nations: Israel and the World, where he charted Israel’s relationships with the region and the West. For all of Netanyahu’s gifts, and his understanding that Israel could find closer friends in Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe, he often missed opportunities to delegate responsibility and let others build those ties. The current Israeli government seems to have done more in six months in terms of diplomacy, than Israel did in the last six years.
以色列告訴美國，東耶路撒冷阿塔羅項目不會推進
儘管當地規劃委員會最近取得了進展，但目前不會推進備受爭議的東耶路撒冷 9,000 套新住宅項目。
作者：托瓦·拉扎羅夫
發佈時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 20:31
更新時間： 2021 年 11 月 25 日 22:39
Atarot 項目的地點，毗鄰安全屏障和 Kafr Akab 公寓。
（照片來源：TOVAH LAZAROFF）
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以色列向美國保證，儘管週三獲得了當地規劃委員會的大力支持，但目前不會推進備受爭議的東耶路撒冷 9,000 套新住宅項目。
這是自納夫塔利·貝內特總理 5 月上任以來第一次似乎默許了美國的壓力，要求在 1967 年之前的路線上推遲猶太人的建設。
該項目接下來計劃提交給內政部地區規劃委員會，該委員會將於 12 月 6 日決定是否可以存放該計劃。
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但官僚主義的過程是一個曠日持久的過程。
以色列決定告訴美國該項目不會推進的消息首先由耶路撒冷郵報的姊妹網站 Walla 報導，並得到郵報證實。
一位外交官員表示，一旦區規劃委員會批准該項目，“再過一年就上不了上層”。
歐盟駐巴勒斯坦權力機構代表 Sven Kuhn von Burgsdorff 於 2021 年 11 月 22 日在 Atarot。（圖片來源：TOVAH LAZAROFF）
另一位消息人士證實，以色列確實告訴美國該項目不會推進。
據反對該計劃的左翼組織“現在和平”的哈吉特·奧弗蘭 (Hagit Ofran) 稱，該計劃已不再在內政部網站上列出。她向論文提供了會議發布位置的屏幕截圖，然後被刪除。
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美國、國際社會和巴勒斯坦權力機構擔心該計劃會在東耶路撒冷阿拉伯社區之間造成隔閡。在任何兩國解決衝突的方案中，這將使東耶路撒冷不可能成為巴勒斯坦國的首都。
拜登政府已明確表示反對東耶路撒冷的所有定居活動和猶太人建築，儘管它沒有正式回應週三推進的項目。
貝內特認為，以色列有權在其統一首都的任何地方建造猶太家園。但與大多數話題一樣，並非政府中的所有政黨都對耶路撒冷持共同立場。
根據現在的和平，以色列建築和住房委員會在 2015 年撥款 200 萬新謝克爾用於設計Atarot 項目，該項目還將包括商業中心、酒店、公園和學校。
2020 年 2 月，該部向耶路撒冷市提交了該計劃，該市於本周建議將其存放在地區規劃委員會。
該項目計劃在 1924 年至 2000 年運營的前 Kalandia 機場的場地上建造。它位於拉馬拉附近，在 443 號公路和 Kalandia 過境點之間。它也毗鄰安全屏障和 Kafr Akab 的東耶路撒冷阿拉伯社區。
East Jerusalem Atarot project won't be advanced, Israel tells US
The controversial east Jerusalem project of 9,000 new homes won't be advanced at this time, despite recent advancements in local planning committees.
By TOVAH LAZAROFF
Published: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 20:31
Updated: NOVEMBER 25, 2021 22:39
The site of the Atarot project, next to the security barrier and the apartments of Kafr Akab.
(photo credit: TOVAH LAZAROFF)
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Israel has assured the United States that the controversial east Jerusalem project of 9,000 new homes won't be advanced at this time, despite the boost it received Wednesday from a local planning committee.
This marks the first time since Prime Minister Naftali Bennett took office in May that he has appeared to acquiesce to US pressure to hold off on Jewish construction over the pre-1967 lines.
The project was next scheduled to go before the Interior Ministry District Planning Committee, which on December 6th is set to decide whether or not the plan can be deposited.
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But the bureaucratic process is a protracted one.
News of Israel's decision to tell the US the project would not move forward was first reported by The Jerusalem Post's sister site Walla and confirmed by the Post.
A diplomatic official said that once the District Planning Committee approves the project, "it won't reach the upper echelon for another year."
European Union Representative to the Palestinian Authority Sven Kuhn von Burgsdorff is seen at Atarot, on November 22, 2021. (credit: TOVAH LAZAROFF)
Another source confirmed that the Israeli had indeed told the US that the project would not be advanced.
According to Hagit Ofran of the left-wing group Peace Now which opposes the plan, it is no longer listed on the Interior Ministry's website. She provided the paper with a screenshot of where the meeting had been posted and then removed.
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The US, the international community and the Palestinian Authority fear that the plan would drive a wedge between east Jerusalem Arab neighborhoods. This would make it impossible for east Jerusalem to be the capital of a Palestinian state, in any two-state resolution to the conflict.
The Biden administration has been clear that it opposes all settlement activity and Jewish building in east Jerusalem, although it did not officially respond to Wednesday advancement of the project.
Bennett believes that Israel has the right to build Jewish homes anywhere in its united capital. But like most topics, not all the parties in the government have a common stance on Jerusalem.
According to Peace Now, Israel's Construction and Housing Committee in 2015 allocated NIS 2 million to design the Atarot project which will also include commercial centers, hotels, parks and schools.
In February 2020, the ministry submitted the plan to the Jerusalem Municipality which this week recommend that it be deposited with the District Planning Committee.
The project is slated to be constructed on the site of the former Kalandia airport which operated from 1924 to 2000. It is located near Ramallah, between Route 443 and the Kalandia crossing. It is also located next to the security barrier and the east Jerusalem Arab neighborhood of Kafr Akab.
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