2021.12.04 國際新聞導讀-美國福音教派怎麼看以色列與世界、伊朗核武談判陷入膠著、以色列B計畫隨時準備動手

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.04 國際新聞導讀-美國福音教派怎麼看以色列與世界、伊朗核武談判陷入膠著、以色列B計畫隨時準備動手
更多的福音派人士對以色列“不屑一顧”而不是忠於它——調查
28% 的福音派人士拒絕認為猶太人曾經是上帝的選民。
作者：瑪雅·賈夫·霍夫曼
根據 Infinity Concepts 和 Gray Matter 的一項新研究，福音派基督徒對以色列“不屑一顧”的比例高於對國家的忠誠。
報告發現，28% 的福音派人士拒絕接受猶太人一直是上帝選民的觀點，並將以色列和猶太人民作為他們慈善行為中的一個非常低的優先級。
相比之下，20% 的福音派可以被視為“以色列的忠誠者”，這意味著他們將猶太人視為上帝的選民，並將支持猶太人和以色列列為重中之重。
然而，研究發現，大多數福音派教徒 (53%) 既不輕視也不忠誠，而是不確定他們如何看待猶太人和以色列。
“這 53% 的人對成為忠誠者持開放態度，”Infinity Concepts 創始人兼首席執行官 Mark Dreistadt 說。“這裡有很多增長機會，這是我從中得到的最大收穫。”
2019 年 4 月 19 日，在波蘭克拉科夫附近的 Kalwaria Zebrzydowska 聖所，一位描繪耶穌基督的演員參加了耶穌受難日慶祝活動。（圖片來源：AGENCJA GAZETA/ADRIANNA BOCHENEK VIA REUTERS）
具體而言，該報告基於對 1,000 多名
美國福音派教徒
的調查，這些人被定義為同意以下原則的人： 聖經是我所信仰的最高權威；鼓勵非基督徒相信耶穌基督是他們的救主，這對我來說很重要；耶穌基督在十字架上的死是唯一可以解除我罪刑罰的犧牲；只有那些單單相信耶穌基督為救主的人，才能獲得上帝賜予的永恆救恩的免費禮物。
根據 Infinity 和 Gray Matter 的說法，按照這個定義，福音派占美國成年人的 23%——大約 5900 萬人。
該調查仔細檢查了 20% 被認為是以色列忠誠者的人，其中 32% 是拉丁裔，21% 是白人，12% 是非洲裔美國人，9% 是亞裔美國人，其餘的人沒有透露自己的種族身份。研究發現，這些忠誠者往往比非忠誠者接受的正規教育更少。
泌尿科醫生：前列腺肥大？立即執行此操作（天才！）由medicalhelp.me 贊助
在每天閱讀聖經的福音派人士中，25% 是忠誠者，而只有 19% 每週閱讀幾次，14% 不經常閱讀。
引人注目的是，大多數頂級支持者從未去過以色列。
“這些人與以色列有很強的親和力，不是因為在該國的個人經歷——只有 8% 的人曾親自前往以色列——而且在前往以色列的福音派人士中，忠於以色列的比例並不高於沒有去過這個國家的人休息一下，”調查說。
然而，他們對前往猶太國家更感興趣——71% 的忠誠者對這次旅行非常感興趣，而所有其他福音派教徒的這一比例為 32%。
德雷斯塔特說，值得注意的是，基督徒在來到這個國家之前就愛以色列。然而，當他們真的來到以色列時，他們回去後“改變了，他們的信仰加深了——他們對聖經有了更多的理解，”他說。
該調查還駁斥了一種刻板印象，即基督徒的支持與政治右翼有關——至少在以色列是這樣。只有 9% 的福音派人士表示，他們將支持親以色列的政客或政治立場視為重中之重。
調查顯示，“絕大多數人更關心探索基督教的聖經根源、保存或挖掘聖經遺址、幫助有需要的人或各種其他類型的工作，而不是事情的政治方面。”
佛羅里達州陽光島海灘麗思卡爾頓公寓的全層頂層公寓售價 2100 萬美元由 Mansion Global 贊助
被推薦
最後，超過一半（51%）的福音派相信猶太人仍然是上帝的選民。
一個人的年齡越大，他們越有可能持有這種觀點：50 歲以上的人佔 59%，55 至 69 歲之間的比例為 56%，40 至 54 歲之間的比例為 49%，40 歲以下的比例為 44%。
相比之下，17% 的人相信替代神學，即猶太人曾經是上帝的選民，但在耶穌誕生後基督徒取代了他們。
大約 19% 的福音派人士不確定他們的信仰，10% 的人認為猶太人從來都不是上帝的選民，還有 2% 的人表達了在選項中沒有的不同意見。
Dreistadt 表示，該組織計劃在未來三到五年內重新進行調查，看看會發生什麼變化。
他說：“重要的是建立橋樑，相互擁抱並共同努力。” “當我們相互理解、信任和重視彼此時，我們可以做很多事情。”
More Evangelicals are 'dismissive' of Israel than loyal to it - survey
28% of Evangelicals reject the idea that Jews ever were God’s chosen people.
By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN
A higher percentage of Evangelical Christians are “dismissive” toward Israel than loyal to the state, according to a new study by Infinity Concepts and Grey Matter.
The report found that 28% of Evangelicals reject the idea that Jews were ever God’s chosen people and place Israel and the Jewish people as a very low priority among their charitable behavior.
In contrast, 20% of Evangelicals can be considered “Israel loyalists,” meaning they see the Jews as God’s chosen people and put supporting the Jews and Israel as a high priority.
However, the majority of Evangelicals (53%) are neither dismissive nor loyal but rather unsure of how they view the Jewish people and Israel, the study found.
“This 53% is wide open to becoming loyalists,” said Infinity Concepts founder and CEO Mark Dreistadt. “There is a lot of opportunity for growth here and that is my big takeaway from this.”
An actor portraying Jesus Christ takes part in Passion Play as part of Good Friday celebrations at the Sanctuary of Kalwaria Zebrzydowska near Krakow, Poland April 19, 2019. (credit: AGENCJA GAZETA/ADRIANNA BOCHENEK VIA REUTERS)
Specifically, the report is based on a survey of more than 1,000
American Evangelicals, defined as people who agrees with the following principles: The Bible is the highest authority for what I believe; it is important for me to encourage non-Christians to trust Jesus Christ as their savior; Jesus Christ’s death on the cross is the only sacrifice that could remove the penalty of my sin; and only those who trust in Jesus Christ alone as their savior receive God’s free gift of eternal salvation.
According to Infinity and Grey Matter, Evangelicals by this definition amount to 23% of American adults - about 59 million people.
The survey closely examined the 20% who are considered Israel loyalists, 32% of whom are Latino, 21% white, 12% African-American, 9% Asian-American and the rest not giving their racial identity. It found that these loyalists tend to have less formal education than non-loyalists.
Urologist: Enlarged Prostate? Do This Immediately (Genius!)Sponsored by medicalhelp.me
Among Evangelicals who read the Bible daily, 25% are loyalists compared to only 19% who read it a few times a week and 14% who read it less frequently.
Strikingly, the majority of top supporters have never been to Israel.
“These people have a strong affinity with Israel not because of personal experience in the country – only 8% have ever personally traveled to Israel – and among Evangelicals who have traveled to Israel, the proportion who are Israel loyalists is not any higher than among the rest who haven’t been to the country,” the survey said.
However, they are much more interested in traveling to the Jewish state – 71% of loyalists are extremely interested in making this trip, compared to 32% of all other Evangelicals.
Dreistadt said it was noteworthy that Christians love Israel before ever being in the country. However, when they do come to Israel, they go back “changed and their faith deepened – and they have more understanding of scriptures,” he said.
The survey also debunked a stereotype that Christian support is tied to the political Right – at least in Israel. Only 9% of Evangelicals said they support pro-Israel politicians or political positions as a top priority.
“The vast majority are more concerned with exploring the biblical roots of Christianity, preserving or excavating biblical sites, helping the needy, or a variety of other types of work than they are about the political side of things,” according to the survey.
How to Design a Multi-Functional SpaceSponsored by Mansion Global
Recommended by
Finally, more than half (51%) of Evangelicals believe that Jews are still God’s chosen people.
The older a person is, the more likely they are to have this perspective: 59% over the age of 50 do, 56% between 55 and 69, 49% between 40 and 54, and 44% under the age of 40.
In contrast, 17% believe in replacement theology, the idea that the Jews were once God’s chosen people but Christians replaced them after the birth of Jesus.
Some 19% of Evangelicals are unsure of what they believe, 10% believe the Jewish people never were God’s chosen people, and 2% expressed a different opinion that was not available in the options.
Dreistadt said the organization plans to resurvey in the next three to five years to see what changes.
“It is important to build bridges and to embrace one another and work together,” he said. “There is so much we can do when we understand, trust and value one another.”
伊朗核談判處於危機邊緣，將延期至下週
歐洲官員對修改精心起草的文本的提議猶豫不決，他們稱該文本已完成 70-80%。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 3 日 19:10
伊朗當選總統易卜拉欣·賴西於 2021 年 6 月 21 日在伊朗德黑蘭舉行的新聞發布會上做手勢。
（圖片來源：MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA（西亞新聞社）通過路透社）
廣告
美伊關於挽救 2015 年伊朗核協議的間接談判於週五搖搖欲墜，因為他們中斷到下週，歐洲官員對伊朗新的強硬政府的要求表示失望。
在維也納舉行的第七輪會談是伊朗反西方總統易卜拉欣·賴西派出代表的第一輪會談。他在 6 月的當選導致五個月的會談中斷，這加劇了美國和歐洲官員的懷疑，即伊朗在取得核進展的同時是在拖延時間。
外交官們說，伊朗核談判代表阿里·巴蓋里·卡尼 (Ali Bagheri Kani) 領導的伊朗代表團提議對前幾輪談判達成的協議文本進行全面修改。歐洲官員對修改精心起草的文本的提議猶豫不決，他們稱該文本已完成 70-80%。
法國、英國和德國的高級官員在一份聲明中說：“五個多月前，伊朗中斷了談判。從那以後，伊朗加快了其核計劃的步伐。本週，它在外交進展上有所退步。”伊朗要求對文本進行“重大修改”。
他們補充說，“尚不清楚如何在現實的時間範圍內縮小這些新差距”。
2015 年 7 月 14 日在奧地利維也納舉行的伊朗核會談期間，一名工作人員將伊朗國旗從舞台上移開（圖片來源：REUTERS）
三個歐洲大國對伊朗的要求表示“失望和擔憂”，他們稱其中一些與協議條款不符或超出了協議條款。
2015 年的協議對伊朗的鈾濃縮活動施加了嚴格限制，將其生產足夠用於製造核彈的裂變材料所需的時間從大約兩到三個月延長至至少一年。大多數專家表示，現在的期限比交易前更短。
伊朗否認尋求核武器，稱其只想為和平目的掌握核技術。
作為核限制的交換，該協議解除了對伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的一系列國際制裁。
然而，在伊朗堅持核心限制措施兩年多之後，時任總統唐納德特朗普於 2018 年將美國從該協議中拉出來，稱其對德黑蘭過於軟弱，並重新對德黑蘭實施了痛苦的經濟制裁。
截至 2019 年，德黑蘭進行了報復，違反了該交易對濃縮和其他限制的許多限制，並遠遠超出了這些限制。由於該協議的核利益現在已被嚴重削弱，一些西方官員表示，該協議的基礎已經無法修復，幾乎沒有時間了。
堅定立場
Bagheri Kani 的不妥協立場是，自美國退出該協議以來，華盛頓應率先採取行動，取消自那時以來對伊朗實施的所有製裁，即使是那些與德黑蘭核活動無關的製裁。
Bagheri Kani 週一告訴路透社，美國及其西方盟國也應該向伊朗保證，未來不會對其實施新的製裁。
西方談判代表以恢復原協議為底線，這意味著如果伊朗希望取消比協議中提到的更多的製裁，它應該在核限制方面提供更多。
“為了對我們的提議做出具體和明確的回應，其他各方認為有必要與各國首都協商，”巴蓋里卡尼在周五的會談休會後告訴記者。
本週的談判像往常一樣結束，該協議的其餘各方，即伊朗、俄羅斯、中國、英國、法國和德國舉行了會議。官員們表示，他們將在周中恢復。
Iran nuclear talks on brink of crisis as they adjourn until next week
European officials have balked at the proposed changes to a painstakingly drafted text that they say is 70-80% finished.
By REUTERS
Indirect U.S.-Iranian talks on salvaging the 2015 Iran nuclear deal teetered on the brink of crisis on Friday as they broke off until next week with European officials expressing dismay at the demands of Iran's new hardline administration.
The seventh round of talks in Vienna is the first with delegates sent by Iran's anti-Western President Ebrahim Raisi. His election in June caused a hiatus in the talks of five months, heightening suspicions among U.S. and European officials that Iran is playing for time while its makes nuclear advances.
The Iranian delegation under nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani has proposed sweeping changes to the text of an agreement negotiated in previous rounds, diplomats said. European officials have balked at the proposed changes to a painstakingly drafted text that they say is 70-80% finished.
"Over five months ago, Iran interrupted negotiations. Since then,
Iran
has fast-forwarded its nuclear program. This week, it has back-tracked on diplomatic progress made," senior officials from France, Britain and Germany said in a statement, adding that Iran was demanding "major changes" to the text.
It is "unclear how these new gaps can be closed in a realistic time frame," they added.
A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage during the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria July 14, 2015 (credit: REUTERS)
The three European powers expressed "disappointment and concern" at Iran's demands, some of which they said were incompatible with the deal's terms or went beyond them.
The 2015 agreement imposed strict limits on Iran's uranium enrichment activities, extending the time it would need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, if it chose to, to at least a year from around two to three months. Most experts say that period is now shorter than before the deal.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, saying it only wants to master nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
Urologist: Enlarged Prostate? Do This Immediately (Genius!)Sponsored by medicalhelp.me
In exchange for the nuclear restrictions, the deal lifted a panoply of international sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
After more than two years of Iranian adherence to the core curbs, however, then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal in 2018, calling it too soft on Tehran, and reimposed painful economic sanctions on Tehran.
Tehran retaliated as of 2019 by breaching many of the deal's limitations on enrichment and other restrictions, and advancing well beyond them. With the deal's nuclear benefits now badly eroded, some Western officials say there is little time left before the foundation of the deal is damaged beyond repair.
FIRM STANCE
Bagheri Kani's uncompromising stance is that since the United States left the deal, it is up to Washington to make the first move by lifting all sanctions imposed on Iran since then, even those unrelated to Tehran's nuclear activities.
Bagheri Kani told Reuters on Monday that the United States and its Western allies also should offer guarantees to Iran that no new sanctions would be imposed on it in the future.
Do this Immediately if You Have Enlarged Prostatic (Watch)Sponsored by healthtrend.live
Recommended by
Western negotiators take a return to the original deal as their base line, meaning that if Iran wants more sanctions than those mentioned in the deal to be lifted, it should offer more in terms of nuclear restrictions.
"In order to give a concrete and clear response to our proposals, other parties felt necessary to consult with capitals," Bagheri Kani told reporters after the talks adjourned on Friday.
This week's talks ended as usual with a meeting of the remaining parties to the deal, Iran, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. Officials said they will resume mid-week.
“以色列可能無法阻止伊朗的鈾軌道”——Amos Yadlin
不過，亞德林表示，該國仍然可以嘗試阻止武器化。
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
JPost 一對一 Zoomcast，第 44 集 - Yonah Jeremy Bob 和前以色列國防軍情報局長 Amos Yadlin 討論以色列-伊朗衝突
以色列國防軍前情報局長阿莫斯·亞德林周三表示，以色列可能已經失​​去了阻止伊朗完成製造核武器的鈾濃縮軌道的機會，但仍然可以阻止其武器化軌道。
“以色列應該假設，也許我們失去了在裂變材料威脅上阻止伊朗的機會，我們必須更多地關注武器化組織和武器化活動——[以]知道他們在哪裡，什麼時候會被激活以及如何阻止他們，”亞德林在波士頓告訴耶路撒冷郵報，他目前是哈佛大學貝爾弗中心的研究員。
關於目前在維也納舉行的核談判，亞德林表示，他認為伊朗將重新加入包含大部分限制的 JCPOA 版本，“但我是說這些限制不像過去在 2015 年至 2018 年之間那樣有效，這是一個以色列的真正擔憂。”
他說，如果華盛頓同意允許德黑蘭保留其數百台新的先進離心機，任何新協議都沒有那麼重要。
“如果他們回到 2015 年的相同參數，由於先進的離心機，特別是如果它們沒有被銷毀，伊朗離炸彈更近了，”他說。“有知識——你不能摧毀知識。”
亞德林堅持認為，德黑蘭在談判中採取強硬態度，看看它可以在製裁或核限制方面做出哪些額外的讓步，但它又回到了談判桌，因為它強烈希望達成交易和製裁減免。
這位前以色列國防軍情報負責人認為，如果拜登政府告訴伊朗伊斯蘭共和國他們的一些誇大的要求“足夠了”，伊朗最終將“達到一個合理的位置”——儘管這可能需要時間。
當被要求將他對前總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡的伊朗政策的看法與總理納夫塔利貝內特的觀點進行比較時，亞德林表示，他對內塔尼亞胡對 2015 年交易的主要批評是內塔尼亞胡對該協議的負面影響。
亞德林說，“這不是一個糟糕的糟糕的交易，這是一個有問題的交易”，存在重大漏洞，但他承認它使伊朗的核進展停滯了多年，“與其他替代方案相比，這不是一場災難. 我在 2018 年更加批評內塔尼亞胡總理，當時他說服特朗普總統在沒有準備 B 計劃的情況下退出協議……我確信 [伊朗人] 也會違反協議，然後繼續前進，然後呢？所以我認為貝內特總理決定不與美國人正面對抗。”
亞德林說，與一個擁有阻止伊朗核武的相同目標的強者公開戰鬥是沒有意義的。
相反，他稱讚貝內特試圖協調防止伊朗核化的戰略，並“試圖與美國人更好地了解”。
“雖然工作組可以製定優先外交的戰略，但如果外交失敗，那麼你需要有一個協調一致的 B 計劃，”他說。“這是最重要的問題，我們不知道他們要去哪裡。”
亞德林認為，2021年以色列甚至有能力打擊伊朗的地下核設施。當被問及這是否價值有限，因為伊朗已經達到了很高的知識水平並且擁有如此多的核設施，亞德林說仍然有希望，並指出有人預測伊朗將在 1990 年代擁有核彈，但它仍然沒有實現.
他說，在這方面，德黑蘭多年來已經明確表示，它並不急於獲得核彈，而是在尋求一種方法來達到目標，而不會冒著為此而進行的重大斗爭的風險。
在上面提供的完整 Zoomcast 採訪中，亞德林還討論了與真主黨、敘利亞和哈馬斯有關的關鍵安全問題。•
--
Hosting provided by SoundOn