“Understanding Shapley Values with Venn Diagrams” by Carson L

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#11: From OJ Simpson Case to Best Selling Author - Marcia Clark Shares Latest Real Crime Book Release and How Resilience Is Key to Success and Reinvention 34:35

17 روز پیش34:35

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34:35

Marcia Clark, best known as the lead prosecutor in the O.J. Simpson trial, has become a trailblazer for women in law and beyond. Her journey from courtroom to bestselling author reflects her resilience and determination to redefine herself amidst intense public scrutiny. On this episode of Worth Knowing, Clark dives into her latest book, *Trial by Ambush*, which examines the 1953 Barbara Graham case—a story that highlights gender bias, media sensationalism, and the notion that all cases are subject to societal, cultural, and political winds. Clark shares how her experiences during the Simpson trial shaped her perspective on societal pressures and the role of women in high-stakes professions. Her reflections on how media, forensic science, and legal practices have evolved over decades offer valuable insights into the intersection of law and culture. This conversation is a compelling exploration of true crime, personal growth, and how Clark’s groundbreaking career continues to inspire a new generation of women to challenge norms and forge their own paths. Marcia Clark is a bestselling author and a criminal lawyer who began her career in law as a criminal defense attorney and went on to become a prosecutor in the L.A. District Attorney's Office in 1981. She spent ten years in the Special Trials Unit, where she handled a number of high-profile cases, including the prosecution of stalker/murderer Robert Bardo, whose conviction for the murder of actress Rebecca Schaeffer resulted in legislation that offered victims better protection from stalkers as well as increased punishment for the offenders. She was lead prosecutor for the O.J. Simpson murder trial. In May of 1997 her book on the Simpson case, "Without a Doubt," was published and reached #1 on the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and Publishers Weekly bestsellers lists. In February 2016, Clark re-released the book with a new foreword. Resources Sign up for the Worth Knowing LinkedIn Newsletter to stay up to date: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/worth-knowing-7236433935503618048/ Follow Bonnie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bonnie-habyan/ Go to the Worth Knowing website: https://www.worthknowing.show Check out The Agile Brand Guide website with articles, insights, and Martechipedia, the wiki for marketing technology: https://www.agilebrandguide.com The Agile Brand is produced by Missing Link—a Latina-owned strategy-driven, creatively fueled production co-op. From ideation to creation, they craft human connections through intelligent, engaging and informative content. https://www.missinglink.company…

حدود یک سال پیش 7:46

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Someone I know, Carson Loughridge, wrote this very nice post explaining the core intuition around Shapley values (which play an important role in impact assessment and cooperative games) using Venn diagrams, and I think it's great. It might be the most intuitive explainer I've come across so far.
Incidentally, the post also won an honorable mention in 3blue1brown's Summer of Mathematical Exposition. I'm really proud of having given input on the post.
I've included the full post (with permission), as follows:
Shapley values are an extremely popular tool in both economics and explainable AI.
In this article, we use the concept of “synergy” to build intuition for why Shapley values are fair. There are four unique properties to Shapley values, and all of them can be justified visually. Let's dive in!
A figure from Bloch et al., 2021 using the Python package SHAP The Game
On a sunny summer [...]
---
Outline:
(01:07) The Game
(04:41) The Formalities
(06:17) Concluding Notes
The original text contained 2 images which were described by AI.
---
First published:
December 6th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WxCtxaAznn8waRWPG/understanding-shapley-values-with-venn-diagrams
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---

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“Understanding Shapley Values with Venn Diagrams” by Carson L

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

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“Winning the power to lose” by KatjaGrace 3:32

18 hours پیش3:32

3:32

Have the Accelerationists won? Last November Kevin Roose announced that those in favor of going fast on AI had now won against those favoring caution, with the reinstatement of Sam Altman at OpenAI. Let's ignore whether Kevin's was a good description of the world, and deal with a more basic question: if it were so—i.e. if Team Acceleration would control the acceleration from here on out—what kind of win was it they won? It seems to me that they would have probably won in the same sense that your dog has won if she escapes onto the road. She won the power contest with you and is probably feeling good at this moment, but if she does actually like being alive, and just has different ideas about how safe the road is, or wasn’t focused on anything so abstract as that, then whether she ultimately wins or [...] --- First published: May 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h45ngW5guruD7tS4b/winning-the-power-to-lose --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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[Linkpost] “Gemini Diffusion: watch this space” by Yair Halberstadt 2:16

۲ روز پیش2:16

2:16

This is a link post. Google Deepmind has announced Gemini Diffusion. Though buried under a host of other IO announcements it's possible that this is actually the most important one! This is significant because diffusion models are entirely different to LLMs. Instead of predicting the next token, they iteratively denoise all the output tokens until it produces a coherent result. This is similar to how image diffusion models work. I've tried they results and they are surprisingly good! It's incredibly fast, averaging nearly 1000 tokens a second. And it one shotted my Google interview question, giving a perfect response in 2 seconds (though it struggled a bit on the followups). It's nowhere near as good as Gemini 2.5 pro, but it knocks ChatGPT 3 out the water. If we'd seen this 3 years ago we'd have been mind blown. Now this is wild for two reasons: We now have [...] --- First published: May 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MZvtRqWnwokTub9sH/gemini-diffusion-watch-this-space Linkpost URL: https://deepmind.google/models/gemini-diffusion/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“AI Doomerism in 1879” by David Gross 13:05

۲ روز پیش13:05

13:05

I’m reading George Eliot's Impressions of Theophrastus Such (1879)—so far a snoozer compared to her novels. But chapter 17 surprised me for how well it anticipated modern AI doomerism. In summary, Theophrastus is in conversation with Trost, who is an optimist about the future of automation and how it will free us from drudgery and permit us to further extend the reach of the most exalted human capabilities. Theophrastus is more concerned that automation is likely to overtake, obsolete, and atrophy human ability. Among Theophrastus's concerns: People will find that they no longer can do labor that is valuable enough to compete with the machines. This will eventually include intellectual labor, as we develop for example “a machine for drawing the right conclusion, which will doubtless by-and-by be improved into an automaton for finding true premises.” Whereupon humanity will finally be transcended and superseded by its own creation [...] --- Outline: (02:05) Impressions of Theophrastus Such (02:09) Chapter XVII: Shadows of the Coming Race --- First published: May 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DFyoYHhbE8icgbTpe/ai-doomerism-in-1879 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Consider not donating under $100 to political candidates” by DanielFilan 2:01

۷ روز پیش2:01

2:01

Epistemic status: thing people have told me that seems right. Also primarily relevant to US audiences. Also I am speaking in my personal capacity and not representing any employer, present or past. Sometimes, I talk to people who work in the AI governance space. One thing that multiple people have told me, which I found surprising, is that there is apparently a real problem where people accidentally rule themselves out of AI policy positions by making political donations of small amounts—in particular, under $10. My understanding is that in the United States, donations to political candidates are a matter of public record, and that if you donate to candidates of one party, this might look bad if you want to gain a government position when another party is in charge. Therefore, donating approximately $3 can significantly damage your career, while not helping your preferred candidate all that [...] --- First published: May 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tz43dmLAchxcqnDRA/consider-not-donating-under-usd100-to-political-candidates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit” by moridinamael 5:51

۷ روز پیش5:51

5:51

"If you kiss your child, or your wife, say that you only kiss things which are human, and thus you will not be disturbed if either of them dies." - Epictetus "Whatever suffering arises, all arises due to attachment; with the cessation of attachment, there is the cessation of suffering." - Pali canon "He is not disturbed by loss, he does not delight in gain; he is not disturbed by blame, he does not delight in praise; he is not disturbed by pain, he does not delight in pleasure; he is not disturbed by dishonor, he does not delight in honor." - Pali Canon (Majjhima Nikaya) "An arahant would feel physical pain if struck, but no mental pain. If his mother died, he would organize the funeral, but would feel no grief, no sense of loss." - the Dhammapada "Receive without pride, let go without attachment." - Marcus Aurelius [...] --- First published: May 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aGnRcBk4rYuZqENug/it-s-okay-to-feel-bad-for-a-bit --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Explaining British Naval Dominance During the Age of Sail” by Arjun Panickssery 8:52

۹ روز پیش8:52

8:52

The other day I discussed how high monitoring costs can explain the emergence of “aristocratic” systems of governance: Aristocracy and Hostage Capital Arjun Panickssery · Jan 8 There's a conventional narrative by which the pre-20th century aristocracy was the "old corruption" where civil and military positions were distributed inefficiently due to nepotism until the system was replaced by a professional civil service after more enlightened thinkers prevailed ... An element of Douglas Allen's argument that I didn’t expand on was the British Navy. He has a separate paper called “The British Navy Rules” that goes into more detail on why he thinks institutional incentives made them successful from 1670 and 1827 (i.e. for most of the age of fighting sail). In the Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) the British had a 7-to-1 casualty difference in single-ship actions. During the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars (1793–1815) the British had a 5-to-1 [...] --- First published: March 28th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YE4XsvSFJiZkWFtFE/explaining-british-naval-dominance-during-the-age-of-sail --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Eliezer and I wrote a book: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by So8res 6:42

۹ روز پیش6:42

6:42

Eliezer and I wrote a book. It's titled If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Unlike a lot of other writing either of us have done, it's being professionally published. It's hitting shelves on September 16th. It's a concise (~60k word) book aimed at a broad audience. It's been well-received by people who received advance copies, with some endorsements including: The most important book I've read for years: I want to bring it to every political and corporate leader in the world and stand over them until they've read it. Yudkowsky and Soares, who have studied AI and its possible trajectories for decades, sound a loud trumpet call to humanity to awaken us as we sleepwalk into disaster. - Stephen Fry, actor, broadcaster, and writer If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies may prove to be the most important book of our time. Yudkowsky and Soares believe [...] The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNsy7MsbodCyNTwKs/eliezer-and-i-wrote-a-book-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Too Soon” by Gordon Seidoh Worley 8:19

10 روز پیش8:19

8:19

It was a cold and cloudy San Francisco Sunday. My wife and I were having lunch with friends at a Korean cafe. My phone buzzed with a text. It said my mom was in the hospital. I called to find out more. She had a fever, some pain, and had fainted. The situation was serious, but stable. Monday was a normal day. No news was good news, right? Tuesday she had seizures. Wednesday she was in the ICU. I caught the first flight to Tampa. Thursday she rested comfortably. Friday she was diagnosed with bacterial meningitis, a rare condition that affects about 3,000 people in the US annually. The doctors had known it was a possibility, so she was already receiving treatment. We stayed by her side through the weekend. My dad spent every night with her. We made plans for all the fun things we would when she [...] --- First published: May 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/reo79XwMKSZuBhKLv/too-soon --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“PSA: The LessWrong Feedback Service” by JustisMills 4:34

11 روز پیش4:34

4:34

At the bottom of the LessWrong post editor, if you have at least 100 global karma, you may have noticed this button. The button Many people click the button, and are jumpscared when it starts an Intercom chat with a professional editor (me), asking what sort of feedback they'd like. So, that's what it does. It's a summon Justis button. Why summon Justis? To get feedback on your post, of just about any sort. Typo fixes, grammar checks, sanity checks, clarity checks, fit for LessWrong, the works. If you use the LessWrong editor (as opposed to the Markdown editor) I can leave comments and suggestions directly inline. I also provide detailed narrative feedback (unless you explicitly don't want this) in the Intercom chat itself. The feedback is totally without pressure. You can throw it all away, or just keep the bits you like. Or use it all! In any case [...] --- Outline: (00:35) Why summon Justis? (01:19) Why Justis in particular? (01:48) Am I doing it right? (01:59) How often can I request feedback? (02:22) Can I use the feature for linkposts/crossposts? (02:49) What if I click the button by mistake? (02:59) Should I credit you? (03:16) Couldnt I just use an LLM? (03:48) Why does Justis do this? --- First published: May 12th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkDrfofLMKFoMGZkE/psa-the-lesswrong-feedback-service --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Orienting Toward Wizard Power” by johnswentworth 8:20

15 روز پیش8:20

8:20

For months, I had the feeling: something is wrong. Some core part of myself had gone missing. I had words and ideas cached, which pointed back to the missing part. There was the story of Benjamin Jesty, a dairy farmer who vaccinated his family against smallpox in 1774 - 20 years before the vaccination technique was popularized, and the same year King Louis XV of France died of the disease. There was another old post which declared “I don’t care that much about giant yachts. I want a cure for aging. I want weekend trips to the moon. I want flying cars and an indestructible body and tiny genetically-engineered dragons.”. There was a cached instinct to look at certain kinds of social incentive gradient, toward managing more people or growing an organization or playing social-political games, and say “no, it's a trap”. To go… in a different direction, orthogonal [...] --- Outline: (01:19) In Search of a Name (04:23) Near Mode --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wg6ptgi2DupFuAnXG/orienting-toward-wizard-power --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Interpretability Will Not Reliably Find Deceptive AI” by Neel Nanda 13:15

19 روز پیش13:15

13:15

(Disclaimer: Post written in a personal capacity. These are personal hot takes and do not in any way represent my employer's views.) TL;DR: I do not think we will produce high reliability methods to evaluate or monitor the safety of superintelligent systems via current research paradigms, with interpretability or otherwise. Interpretability seems a valuable tool here and remains worth investing in, as it will hopefully increase the reliability we can achieve. However, interpretability should be viewed as part of an overall portfolio of defences: a layer in a defence-in-depth strategy. It is not the one thing that will save us, and it still won’t be enough for high reliability. Introduction There's a common, often implicit, argument made in AI safety discussions: interpretability is presented as the only reliable path forward for detecting deception in advanced AI - among many other sources it was argued for in [...] --- Outline: (00:55) Introduction (02:57) High Reliability Seems Unattainable (05:12) Why Won't Interpretability be Reliable? (07:47) The Potential of Black-Box Methods (08:48) The Role of Interpretability (12:02) Conclusion The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 4th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PwnadG4BFjaER3MGf/interpretability-will-not-reliably-find-deceptive-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertainty, MoE Data Wall” by Vladimir_Nesov 11:33

20 روز پیش11:33

11:33

It'll take until ~2050 to repeat the level of scaling that pretraining compute is experiencing this decade, as increasing funding can't sustain the current pace beyond ~2029 if AI doesn't deliver a transformative commercial success by then. Natural text data will also run out around that time, and there are signs that current methods of reasoning training might be mostly eliciting capabilities from the base model. If scaling of reasoning training doesn't bear out actual creation of new capabilities that are sufficiently general, and pretraining at ~2030 levels of compute together with the low hanging fruit of scaffolding doesn't bring AI to crucial capability thresholds, then it might take a while. Possibly decades, since training compute will be growing 3x-4x slower after 2027-2029 than it does now, and the ~6 years of scaling since the ChatGPT moment stretch to 20-25 subsequent years, not even having access to any [...] --- Outline: (01:14) Training Compute Slowdown (04:43) Bounded Potential of Thinking Training (07:43) Data Inefficiency of MoE The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiMRyQcEyKCryST8T/slowdown-after-2028-compute-rlvr-uncertainty-moe-data-wall --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee 27:35

23 روز پیش27:35

27:35

In this blog post, we analyse how the recent AI 2027 forecast by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean has been discussed across Chinese language platforms. We present: Our research methodology and synthesis of key findings across media artefacts A proposal for how censorship patterns may provide signal for the Chinese government's thinking about AGI and the race to superintelligence A more detailed analysis of each of the nine artefacts, organised by type: Mainstream Media, Forum Discussion, Bilibili (Chinese Youtube) Videos, Personal Blogs. Methodology We conducted a comprehensive search across major Chinese-language platforms–including news outlets, video platforms, forums, microblogging sites, and personal blogs–to collect the media featured in this report. We supplemented this with Deep Research to identify additional sites mentioning AI 2027. Our analysis focuses primarily on content published in the first few days (4-7 April) following the report's release. More media [...] --- Outline: (00:58) Methodology (01:36) Summary (02:48) Censorship as Signal (07:29) Analysis (07:53) Mainstream Media (07:57) English Title: Doomsday Timeline is Here! Former OpenAI Researcher's 76-page Hardcore Simulation: ASI Takes Over the World in 2027, Humans Become NPCs (10:27) Forum Discussion (10:31) English Title: What do you think of former OpenAI researcher's AI 2027 predictions? (13:34) Bilibili Videos (13:38) English Title: \[AI 2027\] A mind-expanding wargame simulation of artificial intelligence competition by a former OpenAI researcher (15:24) English Title: Predicting AI Development in 2027 (17:13) Personal Blogs (17:16) English Title: Doomsday Timeline: AI 2027 Depicts the Arrival of Superintelligence and the Fate of Humanity Within the Decade (18:30) English Title: AI 2027: Expert Predictions on the Artificial Intelligence Explosion (21:57) English Title: AI 2027: A Science Fiction Article (23:16) English Title: Will AGI Take Over the World in 2027? (25:46) English Title: AI 2027 Prediction Report: AI May Fully Surpass Humans by 2027 (27:05) Acknowledgements --- First published: April 30th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JW7nttjTYmgWMqBaF/early-chinese-language-media-coverage-of-the-ai-2027-report --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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[Linkpost] “Jaan Tallinn’s 2024 Philanthropy Overview” by jaan 1:17

29 روز پیش1:17

1:17

This is a link post. to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with the 2024 results. in 2024 my donations funded $51M worth of endpoint grants (plus $2.0M in admin overhead and philanthropic software development). this comfortably exceeded my 2024 commitment of $42M (20k times $2100.00 — the minimum price of ETH in 2024). this also concludes my 5-year donation pledge, but of course my philanthropy continues: eg, i’ve already made over $4M in endpoint grants in the first quarter of 2025 (not including 2024 grants that were slow to disburse), as well as pledged at least $10M to the 2025 SFF grant round. --- First published: April 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ojWtREJjKmyvWdDb/jaan-tallinn-s-2024-philanthropy-overview Linkpost URL: https://jaan.info/philanthropy/#2024-results --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Impact, agency, and taste” by benkuhn 15:17

29 روز پیش15:17

15:17

I’ve been thinking recently about what sets apart the people who’ve done the best work at Anthropic. You might think that the main thing that makes people really effective at research or engineering is technical ability, and among the general population that's true. Among people hired at Anthropic, though, we’ve restricted the range by screening for extremely high-percentile technical ability, so the remaining differences, while they still matter, aren’t quite as critical. Instead, people's biggest bottleneck eventually becomes their ability to get leverage—i.e., to find and execute work that has a big impact-per-hour multiplier. For example, here are some types of work at Anthropic that tend to have high impact-per-hour, or a high impact-per-hour ceiling when done well (of course this list is extremely non-exhaustive!): Improving tooling, documentation, or dev loops. A tiny amount of time fixing a papercut in the right way can save [...] --- Outline: (03:28) 1. Agency (03:31) Understand and work backwards from the root goal (05:02) Don't rely too much on permission or encouragement (07:49) Make success inevitable (09:28) 2. Taste (09:31) Find your angle (11:03) Think real hard (13:03) Reflect on your thinking --- First published: April 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DiJT4qJivkjrGPFi8/impact-agency-and-taste --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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