Evan Silva’s Matchups: Falcons at Raiders

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Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football — 8:30 PM ET

Atlanta @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Falcons 24.5, Raiders 19.5

Kirk Cousins’ 0:8 TD-to-INT ratio during Atlanta’s four-game losing streak, while pitiful on the surface, came against four defenses (Saints, Broncos, Chargers, and Vikings) who have not only pressured QBs on over 30% of dropbacks but are also allowing fewer points than expected to enemy QBs; the Raiders rank 29th in pressure rate (27.5%) with the ninth-softest DvP. It’s uncomfortable, but those numbers leave Cousins’ on-paper outlook as one to target for both Superflex leagues and any two-game contests (at low ownership). I do not expect No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. to start until/unless the Falcons are eliminated from the postseason. … Tyler Allgeier popped up for 9/63/1 rushing on 13 snaps (18%) in Minnesota but it’s Bijan Robinson who’s commanded 32 (78% share) and 24 touches (72.7%) in two games out of Atlanta’s bye. De’Von Achane (4.2 yard per carry), Jaleel McLaughlin (6.2), Isiah Pacheco (6.2), and Rachaad White (5.2) — a handful of the league’s most inefficient between-the-tackle runners this year — all had their way with the Raiders on the ground in the last month.

Drake London’s 27.6% target share in four games since exiting early against the Cowboys ranks eighth in the league, seeing 12, 7, 16, and 10 raw targets. Las Vegas (14.3) only trails the Chiefs (16.6) in their points per game allowed to slot receivers, where London’s intermittently run 40% of his routes. … A team-high 52.6% of Darnell Mooney’s catches have been hauled in 10 yards downfield, where the Raiders have been scorched for 76 completions (fifth) all year. Assuming Cousins is unperturbed from the pocket, Mooney projects as a big-play WR3/FLEX. … Droppable in 10-team leagues for his 63% route rate (for two total catches) the past three games, Kyle Pitts has objectively taken a backseat to Ray-Ray McCloud, who’s provided 6/46/0, 4/95/0, and 8/98/0 in that span as an intriguing WR5 and Showdown option to spend down for.

“It doesn’t look good” for Aidan O’Connell after he left Week 14 with an air cast on his leg. Backup Desmond Ridder‘s 4.7 per-game carries in 10 full starts for the Falcons in 2023 gift him a higher floor than perceived in this #Revenge spot. HC Raheem Morris’ unit has struggled to contain mobile QBs for 14/57/0 (Justin Fields) and 13/85/1 (Jalen Hurts) rushing. … A 2022 UDFA and 39th percentile athlete (lol) who toiled away on Las Vegas’ practice squad the past two years, Sincere McCormick has emerged out of nowhere to average over 5.0 yards per carry in each of his three appearances for Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad, I.R.) including the most rushing yards (64) the Chiefs allowed to any RB all season. Most recently handling 89.2% (17) of the team’s backfield touches over Ameer Abdullah (2, 10.5%), McCormick can box out Mattison as an every-down RB2/3 even if the latter’s active.

Raiders interim OC Scott Turner surprised with 2-TE sets on 67% of their snaps in Week 14, the highest mark for any team all season. While that personnel allowed Michael Mayer to record season-highs in routes (68%) and targets (9, 25.7%), it was Brock Bowers who suffered for his lowest target share (14.2%) since Week 3, even being removed on multiple 3rd-and-short situations (including once inside the 10-yard line). He remains a tremendous on-paper play against Morris’ tried and true zone coverage, which he’s earned a position-high 29.4% of his targets against for 2.49 Yards Per Route Run (fifth). Unfortunately, Getsy’s ignorance cannot be accounted for beyond that, creating leverage for Mayer in both dynasty and two-game slates. … Regardless of how the team’s TEs are deployed, Jakobi Meyers stands out as a strong WR2 with 32.6% < 32.3% < 28.5% of Las Vegas’ targets the last three weeks, out-targeting Bowers 74 to 69 in their eight games played without Davante Adams (Jets). For Showdown sickos, note that Tre Tucker has recorded a 58-yard touchdown and sailed 50-yard bomb over his head the past two games sans WR D.J. Turner (I.R.)

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Raiders 21