Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bears at Vikings

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Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football — 8:00 PM ET

Chicago @ Minnesota

Team Totals: Bears 18, Vikings 25.5

Caleb Williams was only under pressure on nine dropbacks (28.1%) against the Niners but ate seven sacks for -3 first-half net yards passing; he made up ground with 107 yards and two touchdowns in two-quarters worth of garbage time. His outlook for 1-QB leagues against Vikings DC Brian Flores’ league-high blitz rate is admittedly bleak and worth ignoring. In two-game slates, however, where we’re accepting that volatility to construct unique lineups, it’s worth noting Williams has completed 68.9% (fifth) of his passes for two touchdowns and zero turnovers against extra pass rushers since interim HC Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties. … D’Andre Swift handled 15 out of 21 backfield touches (71.4% share) sans Roschon Johnson (concussion), who’s already been ruled out for Monday night. Unfortunately, Swift has been stripped of any ceiling under Brown with a negligent 7% target share — he was averaging 10.5% of Chicago’s targets under former OC Shane Waldron — and, most recently, one target (4.2%) to Travis Homer’s three (12.5%). Swift has failed to reach 40 rushing yards as an RB3/FLEX in three consecutive games.

Rome Odunze hauled in both of Caleb’s TDs trailing, at the time he scored, 24-0 and 31-6, but it was D.J. Moore who quietly led the team with 33.3% of their targets. Keenan Allen has also out-targeted Odunze 36 to 30 in their four games with Brown pulling the strings. Moore offers the highest floor of the bunch for his concerted 6.8-yard depth of target, but Allen’s on-paper matchup is stronger (if only choosing one) for Minnesota’s propensity to leak the fifth-most per-week points (13.1) to the slot. Odunze is an intriguing FLEX for #Skol’s 24 completions (third) allowed 20 yards deep. … Cole Kmet’s 10 targets (21.2%) from Week 12 (oddly in this same matchup) appear to be an anomaly given his tallies of three (9.6%), three (8.3%), and zero in three surrounding games under Brown. I prefer streaming his position to starting him against this Vikings unit that only allowed receiving scores to George Kittle (Week 2) and Tucker Kraft (Week 4) all year.

Bricklayer Gregg Rosenthal rightfully capitulated on Sam Darnold’s MVP-caliber season, leading the NFL in 20-yard completions (27) and performances (10) with multiple pass touchdowns. Previously a unit to fear, Chicago’s defense practically laid down against Darnold (21.1 fantasy points), Jared Goff (16.9), and Brock Purdy (22.1) for a combined 9.3 YPA in their last three games. … Aaron Jones exploded for 25/129/1 from scrimmage in his last start against Chicago (Week 12), who’s been bulldozed for 4.79 yards per carry (fifth) and the sixth-highest rate of 15-yard runs; 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo recorded gains of 30, 27, and 23 yards last week. Out-touching Ty Chandler 49 to 6 since being acquired by the Vikings, Cam Akers is merely the player to stash behind Jones for the fantasy postseason (and has been ranked in our One Injury Away list accordingly). He’ll only be optimal in two-game slates if the Vikings take a large lead.

Justin Jefferson (finally) found positive-TD regression with 7/132/2 against the Falcons alongside Jordan Addison, who popped for 8/133/3 himself including a 47-yard DPI drawn in the second quarter. He’s actually out-targeted Jefferson 33 (26.2% share) to 28 (22.2%) over the last month with a whopping 42.6% of the team’s Air Yards — peripherals that could lead to Addison outright out-performing Jefferson in Showdown. … Jalen Nailor (four), Brandon Powell (one), and Trent Sherfield (zero) have combined for five targets in Minnesota’s last three games behind T.J. Hockenson, who’s ramped up to a 73% route rate in that time. The Bears have additionally been destroyed by TEs in as many games, failing to cover Hockenson (7/114/0), Sam LaPorta (3/6/2), and George Kittle (6/151/0) of late. For Showdown purposes, note that Josh Oliver returned from injury for a 26-yard catch and more routes (8) than Johnny Mundt (2).

Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Bears 27