#192: Estimation - Predictability vs Optimism

Better ROI from Software Development

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Richard (Kudo) Couto: The Hidden Horror Behind a Billion-Dollar Brand 42:18

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“I used to be the largest dairy consumer on the planet. I used to eat so much dairy and meat. The more that I looked into the dairy industry, the more that I saw that it was the singular, most inhumane industry on the planet, that we've all been lied to, including myself, for years. I always believed that the picture on the milk carton, the cow standing next to her calf in the green field with the red barn in the back was true. It’s certainly the complete opposite.” – Richard (Kudo) Couto Richard (Kudo) Couto is the founder of Animal Recovery Mission (ARM), an organization solely dedicated to investigating extreme animal cruelty cases. ARM has led high-risk undercover operations that have resulted in the shutdown of illegal slaughterhouses, animal fighting rings, and horse meat trafficking networks. Recently, they released a damning investigation into two industrial dairy farms outside of Phoenix, Arizona supplying milk to Coca-Cola’s Fairlife brand. What they uncovered was systemic animal abuse, environmental violations, and a devastating betrayal of consumer trust. While Fairlife markets its products as being sourced "humanely," ARM’s footage tells a very different story—one of suffering, abuse, and corporate complicity. Despite the evidence, this story has been largely ignored by mainstream media—likely due to Coca-Cola’s massive influence and advertising dollars.…

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M4A•خانه قسمت

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development.

In the last episode, I talk about the short hand of a "valuable estimate" - an estimate that is desirable for the organisation asking for it.

While what constitutes "valuable" will differ from organisations to organisation, team to team, and maybe even piece of work to piece of work, I feel that it will mostly be related to acceptable level of accuracy and precision.

Accuracy is how close to the actual the estimate was - which realistically can only be assessed after the work - and precision is how broad a range is acceptable - which can be defined as part of providing the estimate - and if anything also indicates confidence in the estimate - a narrower range indicating a higher confidence, a wider range indicating a lower confidence.

In this episode I wanted to talk about how Predictability is part of this conversation

-----

Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/192

Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap

206 قسمت

#Tech #Red Folder Consultancy Ltd

#192: Estimation - Predictability vs Optimism

Better ROI from Software Development

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M4A•خانه قسمت

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development.

In the last episode, I talk about the short hand of a "valuable estimate" - an estimate that is desirable for the organisation asking for it.

In this episode I wanted to talk about how Predictability is part of this conversation

-----

Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/192

Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap

206 قسمت

#Tech #Red Folder Consultancy Ltd

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#205: Estimation - a wrap-up 8:34

11 weeks پیش8:34

8:34

This episode is a wrap-up for a mini-series looking at estimation in software development - recapping the guidelines I provided in Episode 189 and providing some additional tips that didn't have a home elsewhere in the series. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/205 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#204: Estimation - Professionalism 21:30

12 weeks پیش21:30

21:30

In this episode, the penultimate episode in the Software Estimation mini-series, I want to discuss how Software Estimation works in terms of professionalism - and in many cases, surprisingly, the professional response is not to provide an estimate. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/204 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#203: Estimation - Is Artificial Intelligence the answer? 15:23

13 weeks پیش15:23

15:23

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I ask the question, is AI the answer? Following on from the episodes on Qualitative and Quantitative approaches, it's easy to see there are pros and cons to individual practices. And realistically, it feels like you will need a blend of various approaches to create truly valuable estimates. But, this all seems like a lot of work and investment, a lot of training, tools and time to achieve. And even more so to iteratively improve to nudge towards those valuable estimates. As I'll say many times in this series, producing estimates costs. Producing valuable estimates costs a lot. Thus, it doesn't take much of a leap of logic to ask the question, can AI help us here? In an ideal world, there would be an AI-powered tool that would just do the work for us. Thus, I explore how such a tool could come into being, and probably more importantly, why I doubt it will happen any time soon. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/203 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#202: Estimation - Quantitative approaches 14:00

14 weeks پیش14:00

14:00

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In the last couple of episodes, I've looked at a number of methods that fall under the Qualitative approach to software estimation. Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, some think based on subjective thought process. In this week's episode, I want to move on to discuss some Quantitative estimation approaches. While Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgement, Quantitative is based on something we can count or calculate, a use of statistical analysis based on historical data. In this episode, I specifically want to discuss two quantitative techniques - Monte Carlo simulations and Statistical PERT (or SPERT for short). ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/202 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#201: Estimation - the #NoEstimate approach 8:26

15 weeks پیش8:26

8:26

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In last week's episode, I looked at a number of methods that fall under the Qualitative approach to software estimation. Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, something based on subjective thought process. In this episode I wanted to take a specific look at another method I personally consider a qualitative approach But it's so different to those discussed in the last episode, I felt it needed its own, the #NoEstimate approach ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/201 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#200: Estimation - Qualitative Approaches 14:49

16 weeks پیش14:49

14:49

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In last week's episode, I introduced two approaches to software estimation, Qualitative and Quantitative estimation. Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, something based on subjective thought process. Whereas Quantitative is based on something we count or calculate. A use of statistical analysis based on historical data. In this episode, I want to dive deeper into the Qualitative and look at some specific practices. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/200 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#199: Estimation - Quantitative vs Qualitative 15:23

17 weeks پیش15:23

15:23

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I wanted to look at practical methods to help develop the team's estimation skills. We cannot expect valuable estimation without investment. It's like any skill, it has to be practiced and refined to obtain a good level of proficiency. So in this episode, I want to take a look at two approaches to estimation - Qualitative and Quantitative. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/199 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#198: Estimation vs the punitive target 10:18

18 weeks پیش10:18

10:18

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I wanted to highlight the emotional baggage that you developers may associate with estimation, and through no fault of your own, will carry that baggage into future estimation work. In the episode, I look at the psychological scarring left behind from decades of using estimates as punitive targets. Like most experienced developers, I've worked in organisations that turn estimates into punitive targets - where a well-meaning estimate has been turned into a commitment, and ultimately, a stick to beat the team with. Now that stick has ranged from the aggressive to the passive, be it threats of dismissal or simply discussing the failure to hit the estimate. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/198 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#197: Estimation vs Dependencies 10:09

19 weeks پیش10:09

10:09

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I wanted to look at the impact that dependencies have on software estimation. This episode was inspired by a blog post on scrum.org entitled "Eliminate Dependencies, Don't Manage Them", which I read while preparing this series. In brief, the article talks about how you're better off eliminating dependencies rather than trying to manage them through normal traditional management processes. In his book, Software Estimation, Demystifying the Black Art, Steve McConnell says that size of the software is the single most significant contributor to project effort and schedule. Personally, I'd like to suggest that dependencies, if not of similar importance, are a close second. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/197 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

1
#196: Estimation vs Planning 9:37

22 weeks پیش9:37

9:37

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I want to encourage you to mentally separate estimation and planning. They are often conflated, which leads to confusion, distrust and dysfunctional behavior. An estimate is generally part of a plan, and a plan can be the outcome of the act of planning. Software development can't be delivered without planning, even if it's only the most cursory of activities. Software development can be delivered without an estimate. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/196 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

1
#195: Estimation - An estimate by any other name 12:35

23 weeks پیش12:35

12:35

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In last week's episode, I asked you to think about what the term "estimate" means to you, your team and your organisation. In the episode I talked about different definitions that could easily be conflated - the amount of effort, a target, and a commitment. In this week's episode I want to continue the discussion by looking at estimates "proxies" - what they are, why they can be useful and how to avoid the trap of confusing them for scheduling. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/195 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

1
#194: Estimation - What are you actually asking for? 16:45

24 weeks پیش16:45

16:45

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this week's episode, I want to discuss what the term "estimate" may mean to you and the colleagues that you work with. The term 'estimate' is often used interchangeably to mean the effort required, the target completion date, or even a commitment to complete the work by a specific date. Often the meaning of an "estimate" changes between people within even a single team, let alone a organisations - thus it is often a cause of friction and dysfunction due to it being in "the eye of the beholder". ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/194 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

1
#193: Estimation - How much to invest 14:56

25 weeks پیش14:56

14:56

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode I want to take a deeper dive into the cost of achieving that - what is the correct cost for the perceived value of the estimate to you and your organisation. This episode continue on from 190 where I asked "Don't invest in estimates unless there are clear demonstrable value in having them" ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/193 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

1
#192: Estimation - Predictability vs Optimism 14:32

26 weeks پیش14:32

14:32

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In the last episode, I talk about the short hand of a "valuable estimate" - an estimate that is desirable for the organisation asking for it. While what constitutes "valuable" will differ from organisations to organisation, team to team, and maybe even piece of work to piece of work, I feel that it will mostly be related to acceptable level of accuracy and precision. Accuracy is how close to the actual the estimate was - which realistically can only be assessed after the work - and precision is how broad a range is acceptable - which can be defined as part of providing the estimate - and if anything also indicates confidence in the estimate - a narrower range indicating a higher confidence, a wider range indicating a lower confidence. In this episode I wanted to talk about how Predictability is part of this conversation ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/192 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

1
#191: Estimation - what is a valuable estimate? 14:23

27 weeks پیش14:23

14:23

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. So for this episode I want to introduce the idea of a "valuable estimate" and what that may mean for you. As I go through this series I will use the term "valuable estimate" as a short hand for some value that is desirable by the organisation asking for it. This may seem a little vague … and to be honest, by design it is. I've spent a lot of time trying to decide what the best estimates should look like - but ultimately I feel it depends on a variety of factors - and is likely to be specific to an organisations - or maybe an initiative - or maybe even to an individual piece of work. We quickly find ourselves in the consultants stock answer of "it depends". So while, in this episode I'll discuss to key characteristics that I believe affect the value of an estimate, the actual (or imagined) value of an estimate will be in the "eye of the beholder". Thus the short hand of "valuable estimate" ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/191 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#190: Estimation - Do you get value? 18:24

28 weeks پیش18:24

18:24

I started the mini-series in episode 189 by providing the following guidelines: Don't invest in estimates unless there are clear demonstrable value in having them Agree what a "valuable" estimate looks like - this will likely be a desirable level of accuracy and precision for an estimate Provide the team with training & time to develop their estimation skills Collect data on points 1-3 and regularly review if you have the balance correct In this episode we dive into "Don't invest in estimates unless there are clear demonstrable value in having them" Estimates are not free – and I would argue that truly valuable estimates are often prohibitively expensive to produce. Thus in this episode, I ask the question are you getting the ROI on that investment. And more importantly – can you prove that. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/190 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#189: Estimation - a review 21:12

29 weeks پیش21:12

21:12

Back in January 2023, in episode #160, "Revisiting Software Development Estimation," I made the commitment to revisit and potentially revise my views on software development estimation. While I acknowledged the desirability of estimations for reasons like cost, risk, and planning, the episode recognized that these desires don't always make estimations attainable or accurate, particularly in complex or complicated domains like software development. In 2023, I planned to research estimation techniques, focusing on their feasibility and implications in the software development process. This research would involve exploring resources such as online courses, books, and audience suggestions, with the intention of sharing findings later in the year. This is the first, if somewhat delayed, in a series of episodes following that work. In this episode I will provide a summary of upcoming episodes and how they fit together. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/189 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#188: Bad for ROI - More Developers 23:29

1 year پیش23:29

23:29

Following on from the last two episodes that look at the dysfunctional and unexpected results that can from the seemly well intentioned call for "more planning", this week's episode takes a look at a similar paradox - the call for "more developers". We look at why "more developers" does not generally equal "greater output" - the unexpected operational overheads that a larger team generate. We look at some circumstances, when used with caution, increasing the headcount can be the right thing. And we look at suggestion for improving productivity without increase numbers. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/188 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#187: Bad for ROI - More Planning - Part 2 23:37

۲ years پیش23:37

23:37

In this episode, the second of two, I conclude the exploration of the dysfunctions and unexpected results that can occur from the seeming well intentioned call for "more planning". In last week's episode, I looking at the historical context of why the request for "more planning", and explored the high cost and dysfunctions that can arise from over-planning. And this week's episode, I'll continue the discussion by exploring the limitations of planning in the face of complexity uncertainty, and some approaches that can help us strike the correct balance. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/187 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#186: Bad for ROI - More Planning - Part 1 20:04

۲ years پیش20:04

20:04

In this episode, the first of two, I start to explore the dysfunctions and unexpected results that can occur from the seeming well intentioned call for "more planning". In this episode, I will start by looking at the historical context of why the request for "more planning", and an exploration of the high cost and dysfunctions that can arise from over-planning. And in next week's episode, I'll continue the discussion by exploring the limitations of planning in the face of complexity uncertainty, and some approaches that can help us strike the correct balance. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/186 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#185: Bad for ROI - Overemphasis on Perfection 22:16

۲ years پیش22:16

22:16

In the last episode I the dysfunctions and unexpected results of a "feature factory" within Software Development. This week I look at what happens if the pendulum swings too far the other way - where an overemphasis on perfection leads again to dysfunction and unexpected results. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/185 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#184: Bad for ROI - the Feature Factory 12:55

۲ years پیش12:55

12:55

In the fast-paced world of software development, the “feature factory” model, with its promise of rapid growth and high ROI, can easily captivate businesses. This episode takes a dive into why the the feature factory is so alluring - and why beneath the allure, lies a multitude of hidden dysfunctions and potential for long-term damage. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/184 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#183: Bad for ROI - Performance measurements in software development 24:48

۲ years پیش24:48

24:48

In this episode I look at another practice that can be bad for ROI - a practice that may commonly be considered good or common practice, but is actually causing dysfunctional, and unexpected, results. In this episode I want to explore the dangers of performance measurements in modern software development - how, while they are a useful and powerful tool, they are so commonly used incorrectly to disastrous affects. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/183 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#182: Bad for ROI - Bonuses 23:08

۲ years پیش23:08

23:08

We all know that a heft bonus improves productivity. Its a management stable - dangle the carrot and good results just roll it. But is that really true? In this episode, I look at the negative consequences of using bonuses for motivation - once again, leaning heavily on the work of Daniel Pink and his book "Drive" to explore the idea of extrinsic and intrinsic motivators - and what works best with modern software development. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/182 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#181: Bad for ROI - RAG reporting 19:47

۲ years پیش19:47

19:47

Occasionally I record an episode exploring something that may commonly be considered good, or common practice, but is actually causing dysfunctional, and unexpected, results in modern software development - and thus would be bad for ROI. This week I look at the RAG (Red Amber Green) status reporting and its impact on modern software development. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/181 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#180: Bad for ROI - the HiPPO 19:54

۲ years پیش19:54

19:54

Occasionally I record an episode exploring something that may commonly be considered good, or common practice, but is actually causing dysfunctional, and unexpected, results in modern software development - and thus would be bad for ROI. This week I want to introduce you to a strange beast, found way too often in our organisations, the HiPPO. While the term might sound comical, its implications in the corporate world, and our software development, are anything but. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/180 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#179: Does the manager still have a role to play in the modern software development team? 21:12

۲ years پیش21:12

21:12

In this episode I wanted to explore what it means to be a manager for a development team - and more importantly in the world of diverse, cross-functional, self-managing, value stream teams, does the manager still have a role to play? Picture this: You've successfully built a software development team that's as diverse as it is dynamic. They are cross-functional, self-managing, and entirely focused on delivering continuous value. You've assembled the dream team. But here's the central question we'll be grappling with today - if you've created this ideal team, what role, if any, should you as the manager play? Could you have possibly made yourself redundant? ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/179 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#178: Transaction-based costing - a wrap-up 18:28

۲ years پیش18:28

18:28

In this episode I wrap up this series of episodes on transaction-based costing by looking at the common themes and revisiting some of my initial reasons for starting the series. For me the key takeaway is the common theme of constantly rethinking our best practice and adapting to the changing landscape of technology, our organisation, and our markets. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/178 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#177: Transaction-based costing and Small Batch Sizes 11:58

۲ years پیش11:58

11:58

In this episode I continue the discussion on transaction-based costing by looking at the relationship with Small Batch Sizes. I began by defining small batch sizes - the breaking of work down into more manageable tasks, which can improve the speed and quality of your output. I then explore how small batch sizes play a pivotal role in transaction-based costing, promoting efficiency and cost-effectiveness by enabling more precise tracking and control of costs. I also examine the benefits that come with this combination - enhanced agility for software changes, better predictability for improved financial forecasting, enhanced transparency for granular insights into cost allocations, and streamlined processes for reducing waste and improving value delivery. And to wrap up, I talk about some the challenges of a transition from traditional methods and implementing small batch sizes. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/177 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#176: Transaction-based costing and Value Stream Teams 17:55

۲ years پیش17:55

17:55

In this episode I continue the discussion on transaction-based costing by looking at the relationship with Value Stream Teams. I start by defining value stream teams - cross-functional groups that work towards delivering value from customer request to service delivery. I explore how they fit into the software development landscape, leveraging principles of lean manufacturing for better efficiency. I recap the transactional cost mindset, comparing it with the traditional CapEx/ OpEx model - highlighting the benefits of a transaction-based approach for improving visibility and accountability for better decision making. I then discuss the importance of breaking down organizational silos - examining the significance of focusing on the end-to-end flow of value in software development, emphasizing how transaction-based costing helps optimize this flow for better financial outcomes. Lastly, I highlight how this approach can enhance agility and speed up time to market. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/176 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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#192: Estimation - Predictability vs Optimism