#202: Estimation - Quantitative approaches

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The truth is out West! We’re hopping on the ET Highway and venturing to the most notorious alien hot spots, including Roswell’s infamous crash site, Area 51’s eerie perimeter, and a mysterious desert watchtower. Join us as journalist Laura Krantz, host of the podcast Wild Thing , beams up to share stories from the front lines of UFO reporting—from strange sightings and quirky festivals to a mailbox where people leave letters to extraterrestrials. Maybe you’ll even decide for yourself: Is Earth a tourist stop for spaceships? UFO hot spots you’ll encounter in this episode: - UFO Watchtower (near Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado) - Roswell, New Mexico - Area 51, Nevada - Extraterrestrial Highway (aka State Route 375), Nevada - Little A’Le’Inn, ET Highway, Nevada - E.T. Fresh Jerky, ET Highway, Nevada - Alien Research Center, ET Highway, Nevada - The Black Mailbox, ET Highway, Nevada Via Podcast is a production of AAA Mountain West Group .…

حدود یک سال پیش 14:00

M4A•خانه قسمت

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development.

In the last couple of episodes, I've looked at a number of methods that fall under the Qualitative approach to software estimation.

Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, some think based on subjective thought process.

In this week's episode, I want to move on to discuss some Quantitative estimation approaches.

While Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgement, Quantitative is based on something we can count or calculate, a use of statistical analysis based on historical data.

In this episode, I specifically want to discuss two quantitative techniques - Monte Carlo simulations and Statistical PERT (or SPERT for short).

-----

Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/202

Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap

206 قسمت

#Tech #Red Folder Consultancy Ltd

#202: Estimation - Quantitative approaches

Better ROI from Software Development

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published حدود یک سال پیش

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M4A•خانه قسمت

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development.

In the last couple of episodes, I've looked at a number of methods that fall under the Qualitative approach to software estimation.

Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, some think based on subjective thought process.

In this week's episode, I want to move on to discuss some Quantitative estimation approaches.

While Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgement, Quantitative is based on something we can count or calculate, a use of statistical analysis based on historical data.

In this episode, I specifically want to discuss two quantitative techniques - Monte Carlo simulations and Statistical PERT (or SPERT for short).

-----

Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/202

Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap

206 قسمت

#Tech #Red Folder Consultancy Ltd

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Better ROI from Software Development

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#205: Estimation - a wrap-up 8:34

11 weeks پیش8:34

8:34

This episode is a wrap-up for a mini-series looking at estimation in software development - recapping the guidelines I provided in Episode 189 and providing some additional tips that didn't have a home elsewhere in the series. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/205 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#204: Estimation - Professionalism 21:30

12 weeks پیش21:30

21:30

In this episode, the penultimate episode in the Software Estimation mini-series, I want to discuss how Software Estimation works in terms of professionalism - and in many cases, surprisingly, the professional response is not to provide an estimate. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/204 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#203: Estimation - Is Artificial Intelligence the answer? 15:23

13 weeks پیش15:23

15:23

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I ask the question, is AI the answer? Following on from the episodes on Qualitative and Quantitative approaches, it's easy to see there are pros and cons to individual practices. And realistically, it feels like you will need a blend of various approaches to create truly valuable estimates. But, this all seems like a lot of work and investment, a lot of training, tools and time to achieve. And even more so to iteratively improve to nudge towards those valuable estimates. As I'll say many times in this series, producing estimates costs. Producing valuable estimates costs a lot. Thus, it doesn't take much of a leap of logic to ask the question, can AI help us here? In an ideal world, there would be an AI-powered tool that would just do the work for us. Thus, I explore how such a tool could come into being, and probably more importantly, why I doubt it will happen any time soon. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/203 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#202: Estimation - Quantitative approaches 14:00

14 weeks پیش14:00

14:00

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In the last couple of episodes, I've looked at a number of methods that fall under the Qualitative approach to software estimation. Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, some think based on subjective thought process. In this week's episode, I want to move on to discuss some Quantitative estimation approaches. While Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgement, Quantitative is based on something we can count or calculate, a use of statistical analysis based on historical data. In this episode, I specifically want to discuss two quantitative techniques - Monte Carlo simulations and Statistical PERT (or SPERT for short). ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/202 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#201: Estimation - the #NoEstimate approach 8:26

15 weeks پیش8:26

8:26

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In last week's episode, I looked at a number of methods that fall under the Qualitative approach to software estimation. Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, something based on subjective thought process. In this episode I wanted to take a specific look at another method I personally consider a qualitative approach But it's so different to those discussed in the last episode, I felt it needed its own, the #NoEstimate approach ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/201 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#200: Estimation - Qualitative Approaches 14:49

16 weeks پیش14:49

14:49

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In last week's episode, I introduced two approaches to software estimation, Qualitative and Quantitative estimation. Qualitative estimation is predominantly based on expert judgment, something based on subjective thought process. Whereas Quantitative is based on something we count or calculate. A use of statistical analysis based on historical data. In this episode, I want to dive deeper into the Qualitative and look at some specific practices. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/200 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#199: Estimation - Quantitative vs Qualitative 15:23

17 weeks پیش15:23

15:23

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I wanted to look at practical methods to help develop the team's estimation skills. We cannot expect valuable estimation without investment. It's like any skill, it has to be practiced and refined to obtain a good level of proficiency. So in this episode, I want to take a look at two approaches to estimation - Qualitative and Quantitative. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/199 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#198: Estimation vs the punitive target 10:18

18 weeks پیش10:18

10:18

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I wanted to highlight the emotional baggage that you developers may associate with estimation, and through no fault of your own, will carry that baggage into future estimation work. In the episode, I look at the psychological scarring left behind from decades of using estimates as punitive targets. Like most experienced developers, I've worked in organisations that turn estimates into punitive targets - where a well-meaning estimate has been turned into a commitment, and ultimately, a stick to beat the team with. Now that stick has ranged from the aggressive to the passive, be it threats of dismissal or simply discussing the failure to hit the estimate. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/198 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#197: Estimation vs Dependencies 10:09

19 weeks پیش10:09

10:09

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I wanted to look at the impact that dependencies have on software estimation. This episode was inspired by a blog post on scrum.org entitled "Eliminate Dependencies, Don't Manage Them", which I read while preparing this series. In brief, the article talks about how you're better off eliminating dependencies rather than trying to manage them through normal traditional management processes. In his book, Software Estimation, Demystifying the Black Art, Steve McConnell says that size of the software is the single most significant contributor to project effort and schedule. Personally, I'd like to suggest that dependencies, if not of similar importance, are a close second. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/197 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#196: Estimation vs Planning 9:37

22 weeks پیش9:37

9:37

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode, I want to encourage you to mentally separate estimation and planning. They are often conflated, which leads to confusion, distrust and dysfunctional behavior. An estimate is generally part of a plan, and a plan can be the outcome of the act of planning. Software development can't be delivered without planning, even if it's only the most cursory of activities. Software development can be delivered without an estimate. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/196 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#195: Estimation - An estimate by any other name 12:35

23 weeks پیش12:35

12:35

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In last week's episode, I asked you to think about what the term "estimate" means to you, your team and your organisation. In the episode I talked about different definitions that could easily be conflated - the amount of effort, a target, and a commitment. In this week's episode I want to continue the discussion by looking at estimates "proxies" - what they are, why they can be useful and how to avoid the trap of confusing them for scheduling. ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/195 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#194: Estimation - What are you actually asking for? 16:45

24 weeks پیش16:45

16:45

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this week's episode, I want to discuss what the term "estimate" may mean to you and the colleagues that you work with. The term 'estimate' is often used interchangeably to mean the effort required, the target completion date, or even a commitment to complete the work by a specific date. Often the meaning of an "estimate" changes between people within even a single team, let alone a organisations - thus it is often a cause of friction and dysfunction due to it being in "the eye of the beholder". ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/194 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#193: Estimation - How much to invest 14:56

25 weeks پیش14:56

14:56

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In this episode I want to take a deeper dive into the cost of achieving that - what is the correct cost for the perceived value of the estimate to you and your organisation. This episode continue on from 190 where I asked "Don't invest in estimates unless there are clear demonstrable value in having them" ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/193 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

1
#192: Estimation - Predictability vs Optimism 14:32

26 weeks پیش14:32

14:32

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. In the last episode, I talk about the short hand of a "valuable estimate" - an estimate that is desirable for the organisation asking for it. While what constitutes "valuable" will differ from organisations to organisation, team to team, and maybe even piece of work to piece of work, I feel that it will mostly be related to acceptable level of accuracy and precision. Accuracy is how close to the actual the estimate was - which realistically can only be assessed after the work - and precision is how broad a range is acceptable - which can be defined as part of providing the estimate - and if anything also indicates confidence in the estimate - a narrower range indicating a higher confidence, a wider range indicating a lower confidence. In this episode I wanted to talk about how Predictability is part of this conversation ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/192 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

Better ROI from Software Development

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#191: Estimation - what is a valuable estimate? 14:23

27 weeks پیش14:23

14:23

This episode is part of a wider mini-series looking at Estimation in Software Development. So for this episode I want to introduce the idea of a "valuable estimate" and what that may mean for you. As I go through this series I will use the term "valuable estimate" as a short hand for some value that is desirable by the organisation asking for it. This may seem a little vague … and to be honest, by design it is. I've spent a lot of time trying to decide what the best estimates should look like - but ultimately I feel it depends on a variety of factors - and is likely to be specific to an organisations - or maybe an initiative - or maybe even to an individual piece of work. We quickly find ourselves in the consultants stock answer of "it depends". So while, in this episode I'll discuss to key characteristics that I believe affect the value of an estimate, the actual (or imagined) value of an estimate will be in the "eye of the beholder". Thus the short hand of "valuable estimate" ----- Find this episodes show notes at: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/191 Have an idea for an episode topic, or want to see what is coming up: https://red-folder.com/podcasts/roadmap…

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