2025 AI reality check: Are we in a bubble?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.

In this episode you’ll hear:

• The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problems
• When bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summer
• The Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscape
• Climate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two years
• What I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistance
• Why getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecasting
• The 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulence

Our new show

This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.

The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected].

Azeem’s links:

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Timestamps:

(00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025

(01:23) #1: No AI Wall

(03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment

(05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans

(06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF

(08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify

(09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records

(10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear

(11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately

(12:01) What I missed

(12:14) The CapEx boom around AI

(13:56) The rise of humanoid robots

(14:36) AI's impact on the workforce

(18:40) Looking ahead

(18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next

(19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks"

(21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble

(23:02) A question for the future

Production:

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