#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession

The Julia La Roche Show

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession.

Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."

Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others.

This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.

Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.

0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt

1:55 Macro picture

3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession

4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households

6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy

9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index

11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic

14:20 Law of diminishing returns

17:03 What does a hard landing look like

20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle

23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession

26:00 Debt, demographics

29:40 US dollar

30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier

36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL)

41:55 Contra normal developments

43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed

48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion

50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion

54:00 Classical economist

57:00 5 phases of the business cycle