#502 How Data Is Reshaping Venture Capital: AlphaSemantic’s Vision with Cyril Shtabtsovsky

The CTO Show with Mehmet Gonullu

In this episode of The CTO Show with Mehmet, we dive deep into the future of venture capital with Cyril Shtabtsovsky, founder of AlphaSemantic and a practicing VC. Cyril shares how his data-driven platform helps venture firms source, score, and connect with high-potential startups — using proprietary algorithms and machine learning to augment traditional VC workflows.

From the role of AI in deal sourcing to venture arbitrage between US and MENA, this conversation blends tech, strategy, and hard-won insights from both sides of the table.

🔑 Key Takeaways

• Why traditional VC gut feeling can be quantified — and where it still matters

• How AlphaSemantic helps VCs find, pick, and approach the right startups

• Why Series B is the “sweet spot” for data-driven venture strategies

• The arbitrage opportunity between regions like Europe, MENA, and the US

• Where deep tech, space tech, and robotics are headed in 2025 and beyond

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🎓 What You’ll Learn

• The rise of data-driven VC platforms and what’s driving adoption

• How Cyril’s published research back-tested startup success using public signals

• What makes a VC fund globally competitive in today’s AI-native environment

• Why deep tech may be the last defensible moat in the age of SaaS commoditization

• Realistic startup valuation trends and exit paths in 2025

👤 About the Guest

Cyril Shtabtsovsky is the founder of AlphaSemantic, a platform that empowers VCs with smart sourcing tools using big data, semantic search, and predictive scoring. Cyril is also an active venture capitalist and published researcher on startup success prediction. His mission is to democratize advanced VC tooling for the next generation of investors.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/cyrilsh/

https://www.alphasemantic.ai/

https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.15552v1

⏱️ Episode Highlights & Timestamps (Spotify + YouTube Chapters)

00:00 – Intro: Meet Cyril, founder of AlphaSemantic

02:00 – Why AlphaSemantic was born: From thesis to product

04:20 – The contradiction: Gut feeling vs. data-driven VC

07:00 – What stage is best for data-driven sourcing?

09:00 – Demo logic: What AlphaSemantic’s onboarding looks like

11:00 – The VC’s job: Find, pick, win

13:10 – Gut feeling as unconscious data processing

15:00 – How Cyril’s paper achieved 86% success prediction rate

17:30 – The challenge of scaling data-driven VC in emerging markets

20:00 – How new VCs can differentiate without a brand

22:00 – Deep tech, AI, and the post-software opportunity

24:00 – MENA data quality gaps vs. US/Europe VC infrastructure

28:00 – Global arbitrage in valuations between MENA, Europe, and the US

34:00 – What deep tech bets matter in 2025

40:00 – Angels vs. VCs: The role of smart capital

44:00 – Final thoughts: Optimism, growth, and regional momentum