2021.12.19 國際新聞導讀-俄羅斯與中國因為對抗歐美而日益靠近、土耳其貨幣巨貶使人民陷入貧困、黎巴嫩真主黨在2022年選舉中可能扮演更重要角色、阿富汗塔利班政權呼籲世界幫助阿富汗

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.19 國際新聞導讀-俄羅斯與中國因為對抗歐美而日益靠近、土耳其貨幣巨貶使人民陷入貧困、黎巴嫩真主黨在2022年選舉中可能扮演更重要角色、阿富汗塔利班政權呼籲世界幫助阿富汗
俄羅斯希望與中國進行更密切的協調，而美國可能會受到挑戰——分析
中俄在美歐問題上都感受到了協調的契機。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 18 日 12:32
2019 年 6 月 5 日，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京和中國國家主席習近平在俄羅斯莫斯科簽署儀式後合影
（圖片來源：路透社/EVGENIA NOVOZHENINA）
廣告
俄羅斯總統普京和中國國家主席習近平本週舉行了會談。
俄羅斯媒體的報導稱，他們將在周三通過視頻連線進行的會談中解決北約“好戰的言論和歐洲的緊張局勢”，克里姆林宮發言人德米特里佩斯科夫週二表示，塔斯社說。
據俄羅斯媒體報導，雙方討論了“最近國際事務，特別是歐洲大陸的事態發展，現在非常緊張，這肯定需要盟國之間，莫斯科和北京之間的討論，”克里姆林宮發言人指出。
這很重要，因為它顯示了中國和俄羅斯已經變得多麼親密，以及他們如何在美國和歐洲方面進行協調。他們感覺到機會。
在經歷了二十年的“全球反恐戰爭”之後，美國希望轉向對抗俄羅斯和中國。但有一個問題是，美國是否等得太久才做出這種轉變。
美國總統喬拜登（來源：REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE）
據俄羅斯總統發言人稱，“議程上有很多問題：能源會談、高科技領域的合作、聯合投資和貿易。”
週六，中國CGTN媒體稱，“據當地媒體報導，俄羅斯週六正式退出了《開放天空條約》。” 俄羅斯從6月7日起就計劃這樣做，這與美國前總統特朗普在2020年11月選擇退出時2002年條約已經遭到破壞有關，他指責俄羅斯違反了條約。
CGTN 指出，“該條約於 2002 年生效，允許締約國在其他簽署國主權下的領土上進行短時間的非武裝偵察飛行，以收集有關軍事力量和活動的數據，以此建立信任和熟悉度。 。”
Russia wants closer coordination with China, and US could be challenged - analysis
China and Russia have sensed an opportunity to coordinate regarding the US and Europe.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: DECEMBER 18, 2021 12:32
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping pose after signing ceremony in Moscow, Russia, June 5, 2019
(photo credit: REUTERS/EVGENIA NOVOZHENINA)
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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping held talks this week.
The reports in Russian media said they would address NATO “belligerent rhetoric and tense situation in Europe during the talks, which are going to take place on Wednesday via video linkup,” Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Tuesday, TASS said.
According to the Russian media, the two sides discussed “recent developments in international affairs, especially on the European continent, are now very tense and this definitely requires discussion between the allies, between Moscow and Beijing," the Kremlin spokesman noted.
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This is important because it shows how close China and Russia have become and how they coordinate regarding the US and Europe. They sense an opportunity.
The US wants to shift to confronting Russia and China after two decades of “global war on terror.” But there is a question about whether the US waited too long to make this shift.
US President Joe Biden (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
According to the Russian presidential spokesman, "there is a plethora of questions on the agenda: talks on energy, cooperation in the field of high tech, joint investments and trade.”
On Saturday, CGTN media in China said that “Russia on Saturday officially withdrew from the Treaty on Open Skies, according to local media.” Russia had planned to do this since June 7. It was related to the fact that the 2002 treaty had already been undermined when former US President Donald Trump chose to withdraw from it in November 2020. He accused Russia of violating the treaty.
CGTN noted that “the treaty, which became effective in 2002, allows state parties to conduct short-notice, unarmed reconnaissance flights over the territories under the sovereignty of other signatories to collect data on military forces and activities as a way to build confidence and familiarity.”
Russia claims that "regrettably, our efforts did not allow us to preserve the treaty in the form in which its authors conceived it," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday, calling the US the "initiator" of the collapse of the treaty.
What is important here is that it signifies how much relations have eroded between Moscow and Washington and appears linked to greater coordination between Beijing and Moscow. Both China and Russia appear to back Iran as well as Iran is negotiating its nuclear program and sanctions with the US and Europeans.
It should be noted that last week Microsoft also warned that hackers linked with the governments of China, Iran, North Korea and Turkey have been threatening a “critical flaw in software used by big tech firms around the world,” according to CNN.
“The activity from the foreign hacking groups includes experimentation with the vulnerability, integration into existing hacking tools,” the report said. “It's the latest fallout from the recently revealed software flaw, which the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency says could affect hundreds of millions of devices globally.”
The fact the report mentioned China, Iran, North Korea and Turkey illustrates how these countries are working together against the US and the West. Add in Russia and it represents a new alliance system.
俄羅斯外交部周六在一份聲明中表示，“遺憾的是，我們的努力未能讓我們以締約者設想的形式保留該條約”，稱美國是該條約崩潰的“發起者”。條約。
這裡重要的是，它表明莫斯科和華盛頓之間的關係受到了多大程度的侵蝕，並且似乎與北京和莫斯科之間加強協調有關。中國和俄羅斯似乎都支持伊朗，而且伊朗正在與美國和歐洲就其核計劃和製裁進行談判。
應該指出的是，上周微軟還警告稱，與中國、伊朗、朝鮮和土耳其政府有聯繫的黑客一直在威脅“世界各地大型科技公司使用的軟件存在嚴重缺陷”，據美國有線電視新聞網報導。
報告稱：“外國黑客組織的活動包括對漏洞進行試驗、集成到現有的黑客工具中。” “這是最近曝光的軟件缺陷的最新後果，美國網絡安全和基礎設施安全局表示，這可能影響全球數億台設備。”
報告提到中國、伊朗、朝鮮和土耳其的事實說明了這些國家如何共同對抗美國和西方。加入俄羅斯，代表一個新的聯盟體系。
俄羅斯要求北約撤出東歐並遠離烏克蘭
一些西方政治分析人士認為，俄羅斯有意提出不切實際的要求。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 17 日 17:45
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 17 日 18:54
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京於 2021 年 12 月 7 日在俄羅斯索契通過視頻鏈接與美國總統喬·拜登舉行會談。
（圖片來源：SPUTNIK/SERGEI GUNEEV/克里姆林宮通過路透社）
廣告
俄羅斯週五表示，它希望獲得具有法律約束力的保證，即北約將放棄在東歐和烏克蘭的任何軍事活動，這是它希望與西方談判的安全保證願望清單的一部分。
莫斯科首次詳細提出要求，它表示這些要求對於緩解歐洲緊張局勢和化解烏克蘭危機至關重要，西方國家指責俄羅斯在邊境附近建立軍隊後準備入侵烏克蘭。俄羅斯否認計劃入侵。
這些要求包含一些元素——例如俄羅斯對烏克蘭加入北約的有效否決權——西方已經排除了這些因素。
另一些則暗示美國從歐洲撤出核武器，並從波蘭和波羅的海國家愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛撤出曾經屬於蘇聯的北約多國營。
在華盛頓，一位高級政府官員表示，美國準備討論這些提議，但補充說：“也就是說，這些文件中有些東西俄羅斯人知道是不可接受的。”
在烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部 11 月 17 日發布的這張講義圖片中，烏克蘭武裝部隊的一名軍人在烏克蘭赫爾鬆地區與俄羅斯吞併的克里米亞邊境附近的一個訓練場參加軍事演習， 2021.（來源：烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部新聞處/路透社提供的資料）
這位官員表示，華盛頓將在下周某個時候就任何會談的形式提出更具體的建議。
白宮新聞秘書 Jen Psaki 表示，華盛頓將與其盟友對話。“我們不會妥協建立歐洲安全的關鍵原則，包括所有國家都有權決定自己的未來和外交政策，不受外界干擾，”她說。
北約外交官告訴路透社，俄羅斯不能對進一步擴大聯盟擁有否決權，北約有權決定自己的軍事態勢。
波蘭外交部發言人盧卡斯·賈西納說：“俄羅斯不是北約成員國，不會決定與北約有關的事務。”
'煙幕'
一些西方政治分析人士表示，俄羅斯有意提出不切實際的要求，它知道在外交上分散注意力，同時對烏克蘭施加軍事壓力，這些要求不會得到滿足。
弗吉尼亞研究機構 CNA 的俄羅斯專家邁克爾·科夫曼 (Michael Kofman) 在推特上寫道：“這張照片有很大問題，政治方面似乎是一個煙幕彈。”
倫敦國王學院俄羅斯政治學教授薩姆格林表示，弗拉基米爾普京總統正在“在後蘇聯時代劃出一條線，並放置一個‘遠離’的標誌。”
“這並不意味著成為一項條約：它是一項宣言，”他說。“但這並不一定意味著這是戰爭的前奏。這是保持莫斯科一觸即發的立場的理由，以保持華盛頓和其他國家的平衡。”
俄羅斯外交部副部長謝爾蓋里亞布科夫在提出莫斯科的要求時表示，俄羅斯和西方必須從零開始重建關係。
他對記者說：“美國和北約近年來採取的積極升級安全局勢的路線是絕對不能接受的，也是極其危險的。”
里亞布科夫表示，俄羅斯不願再忍受當前局勢，並敦促華盛頓迅速做出建設性回應。
他說俄羅斯準備最早在周六開始談判，日內瓦可能是一個地點，但俄羅斯通訊社塔斯社後來援引他的話說，莫斯科對來自華盛頓和北約的信號感到非常失望。
部隊集結
隨著俄羅斯在烏克蘭附近集結軍隊的緊張局勢加劇，莫斯科本週將其提議交給了美國。
它表示，它正在回應烏克蘭與北約日益密切的關係以及成為聯盟成員的願望對其自身安全構成的威脅，儘管基輔被允許加入的可能性不大。
俄羅斯的提議包含在兩份文件中——一份與北約國家的協議草案和一份與美國的條約草案，均由外交部公佈。
第一點，除其他外，將要求俄羅斯和北約不要在 1997 年 5 月所在的國家之外部署額外的軍隊和武器——在東歐的任何前共產主義國家加入北約之前，幾十年來，莫斯科。這將意味著北約放棄在烏克蘭、東歐、高加索和中亞的任何軍事活動。
與美國簽訂的條約將阻止莫斯科和華盛頓在其國家領土之外部署核武器。這將意味著結束北約所謂的核共享安排，即歐洲北約成員國提供能夠運載美國核武器的飛機。
Russia demands NATO roll back from East Europe and stay out of Ukraine
Some Western political analysts suggested Russia was knowingly presenting unrealistic demands.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 17, 2021 17:45
Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2021 18:54
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds talks with U.S. President Joe Biden via a video link in Sochi, Russia December 7, 2021.
(photo credit: SPUTNIK/SERGEI GUNEEV/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS)
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Russia said on Friday it wanted a legally binding guarantee that NATO would give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, part of a wish list of security guarantees it wants to negotiate with the West.
Moscow for the first time laid out in detail demands that it says are essential for lowering tensions in Europe and defusing a crisis over Ukraine, which Western countries have accused Russia of sizing up for a potential invasion after building up troops near the border. Russia has denied planning an invasion.
The demands contain elements - such as an effective Russian veto on NATO membership for Ukraine - that the West has already ruled out.
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Others would imply the removal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe and the withdrawal of multinational NATO battalions from Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that were once in the Soviet Union.
In Washington, a senior administration official said the United States was prepared to discuss the proposals but added: "That said, there are some things in those documents that the Russians know are unacceptable."
A serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces takes part in military drills at a training ground near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea in Kherson region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine press service November 17, 2021. (credit: PRESS SERVICE OF GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
The official said Washington would respond sometime next week with more concrete proposals on the format of any talks.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Washington would talk to its allies. "We will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy, free from outside interference," she said.
NATO diplomats told Reuters that Russia cannot have a veto on further alliance expansion and NATO has the right to decide its own military posture.
"Russia is not a member of NATO and doesn't decide on matters related to NATO," Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lukasz Jasina said.
'SMOKESCREEN'
Some Western political analysts suggested Russia was knowingly presenting unrealistic demands which it knew would not be met to provide a diplomatic distraction while maintaining military pressure on Ukraine.
"Something is very wrong with this picture, the political side appears to be a smokescreen," Michael Kofman, a Russia specialist at Virginia-based research organization CNA, wrote on Twitter.
Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King's College London, said President Vladimir Putin was "drawing a line around the post-Soviet space and planting a 'keep out' sign."
"It's not meant to be a treaty: it's a declaration," he said. "But that doesn’t necessarily mean this is a prelude to war. It’s a justification for keeping Moscow’s hair-trigger stance, in order to keep Washington and others off balance."
Presenting Moscow's demands, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia and the West must start from a clean sheet in rebuilding relations.
"The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous," he told reporters.
Ryabkov said Russia was not willing to put up with the current situation any longer and urged Washington to come up with a constructive response fast.
He said Russia was ready to start talks as soon as Saturday, with Geneva a possible venue, but Russian news agency TASS quoted him as saying later that Moscow was extremely disappointed by the signals coming from Washington and NATO.
TROOP BUILD-UP
Moscow handed over its proposals to the United States this week as tensions rose over the Russian troop build-up near Ukraine.
It says it is responding to what it sees as threats to its own security from Ukraine's increasingly close relations with NATO and aspirations to become an alliance member, even though there is no imminent prospect of Kyiv being allowed to join.
The Russian proposals were set out in two documents - a draft agreement with NATO countries and a draft treaty with the United States, both published by the foreign ministry.
The first, among other points, would require Russia and NATO not to deploy additional troops and weapons outside the countries where they were in May 1997 - before the accession to NATO of any of the former communist states in East Europe that for decades were dominated by Moscow. It would mean NATO abandoning any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
The treaty with the United States would prevent Moscow and Washington from deploying nuclear weapons outside their national territories. That would mean an end to NATO's so-called nuclear-sharing arrangements, where European NATO members provide aircraft capable of delivering U.S. nuclear weapons.
隨著移民危機迫在眉睫，阿富汗塔利班領導人呼籲尋求幫助
該運動的副外長表示，幫助阿富汗在幾十年的戰爭後恢復是像美國這樣的國家的責任。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 18 日 18:24
2021 年 11 月 2 日，塔利班戰士在阿富汗喀布爾急診醫院門口檢查受傷的同志
（圖片來源：路透社/ZOHRA BENSEMRA）
廣告
塔利班高級官員周六呼籲國際社會提供幫助，以應對日益加深的經濟危機，這場危機加劇了人們對另一場難民逃離阿富汗的擔憂。
在紀念聯合國國際移民日的特別會議上發表的評論強調了新的伊斯蘭塔利班政府在他們在喀布爾奪取政權四個月後推動與國際社會接觸。
該運動的副外交部長謝爾·穆罕默德·阿巴斯·斯塔尼克扎伊表示，美國等國家有責任幫助阿富汗在數十年的戰爭後恢復，這些國家已經凍結了數十億美元的中央銀行儲備。
"The impact of the frozen funds is on the common people and not Taliban authorities," he told the conference, attended by representatives of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UNHCR, the United Nations refugee organization.
聯合國機構估計，如果沒有緊急幫助，數百萬阿富汗人可能會在冬天面臨飢餓，但由於國際社會不願與塔利班直接接觸，援助受到了阻礙，部分原因是對婦女權利和政治包容的擔憂。
2021 年 8 月 18 日，塔利班叛亂分子進入法國巴黎附近的阿富汗首都喀布爾後，在魯瓦西戴高樂機場的停機坪上看到一架載有從阿富汗撤離人員的飛機。（來源：REUTERS/SARAH MEYSSONNIER）
塔利班獲勝後外援的突然撤出已將阿富汗脆弱的經濟推向崩潰的邊緣。數百萬人沒有工作，銀行系統只是部分功能。
“如果政治和經濟形勢沒有改變，將會有更多的移民，”斯坦尼克扎伊說。
美國已發布指導方針，允許個人向阿富汗匯款，但拒絕釋放 90 億美元的中央銀行儲備或取消對一些塔利班領導人的製裁。
塔利班外交部長阿米爾·汗·穆塔奇週六在伊斯蘭堡會見了紅十字國際委員會的代表，此前伊斯蘭合作組織的外交部長將舉行會議討論阿富汗局勢。
他說，塔利班歡迎國際人道主義組織，並保證他們將可以不受阻礙地工作。
Afghan Taliban leaders appeal for help as migrant crisis looms
The movement's deputy Foreign Minister said it was the responsibility of countries like the United States to help Afghanistan recover after decades of war.
By REUTERS
Published: DECEMBER 18, 2021 18:24
Taliban fighters check on injured comrades at the entrance of the emergency hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan November 2, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS/ZOHRA BENSEMRA)
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Senior Taliban officials appealed on Saturday for international help to combat a deepening economic crisis that has fueled fears of another refugee exodus from Afghanistan.
The comments, at a special meeting to mark the UN's international migrants day, underlined the new Islamist Taliban government's push to engage with the world community, four months after they seized power in Kabul.
The movement's deputy Foreign Minister, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, said it was the responsibility of countries like the United States, which have blocked billions of dollars of central bank reserves, to help Afghanistan recover after decades of war.
"The impact of the frozen funds is on the common people and not Taliban authorities," he told the conference, attended by representatives of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UNHCR, the United Nations refugee organization.
UN bodies estimate that millions of Afghans could face hunger over the winter without urgent help, but aid has been hampered by international unwillingness to engage directly with the Taliban, in part because of concern over rights for women and political inclusion.
A plane carrying people who have been evacuated from Afghanistan is seen on the tarmac at Roissy Charles-de-Gaulle airport after Taliban insurgents entered Afghanistan's capital Kabul, near Paris, France, August 18, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/SARAH MEYSSONNIER)
The abrupt withdrawal of foreign aid following the Taliban victory has pushed Afghanistan's fragile economy close to collapse. Millions are without work and the banking system is only partially functional.
"If the political and economic situation doesn't change, there will be more migration," Stanikzai said.
The United States has issued guidance that would permit personal cash remittances to Afghanistan but it has not relented on its refusal to release the $9 billion in central bank reserves or lift sanctions on a number of Taliban leaders.
Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross on Saturday in Islamabad, ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.
He said the Taliban welcomed international humanitarian organizations and gave assurances that they would be allowed to work unimpeded.
真主黨將在 2022 年選舉後尋求更大的控制權
隨著黎巴嫩面臨政治、經濟和社會危機，真主黨會在即將到來的選舉中增強實力還是在民意調查中遭受損失？
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 18 日 12:30
描繪真主黨領導人哈桑·納斯魯拉、敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德和伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊在黎巴嫩-敘利亞邊境附近的一個村莊的海報。
（圖片來源：AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS）
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黎巴嫩真主黨期待著那裡的 2022 年選舉，並對其未來在該國的角色表示擔憂。它會增強實力還是在民意調查中受苦？根據伊朗 Tasnim Media 最近的一篇報導，真主黨副秘書長 Naim Qassem 討論了這些問題。
一些文章認為，2022 年 3 月的選舉或 5 月的推遲選舉可能意味著黎巴嫩的變化。散居在外的黎巴嫩公民尋求參與投票。
與此同時，經濟陷入混亂，人們正在逃離這個國家。真主黨過去曾將總統作為人質，並在該國建立了一個平行國家。
卡西姆承認，黎巴嫩今天處境艱難。真主黨知道該國正面臨政治、經濟和社會方面的危機。
5 月，真主黨成員在黎巴嫩與以色列邊境附近的 Kfar Kila 舉著紀念抵抗和解放日的旗幟。（信用：阿齊茲·塔赫/路透社）
據伊朗媒體報導，這位真主黨副領導人說：“人們覺得社會各個層面都存在混亂，所以如果我們想擺脫這種混亂並尋求解決方案，我們必須認清問題並知道它們的數量。” .
黎巴嫩真主黨副秘書長說：“畢竟，我們今天面臨一個大問題，後果不尋常。” 他指出，司法層面和議會層面都存在失敗。但是如何解決這個問題呢？
“很明顯，這個問題可以通過司法機構、議會或內閣來解決，”他說，“這三個機構都有解決這個問題的辦法，所以他們必須共同努力。”
這位真主黨代表曾表示，“很明顯，即將到來的選舉戰非常火爆。同時，在國際支持和美國和波斯灣國家的資金支持下，對方尋求在黎巴嫩及其議會中奪權。 .”
這意味著真主黨將即將到來的選舉視為一場與美國和海灣國家對抗的選舉。沙特阿拉伯歷來支持與遜尼派主要政黨有聯繫的真主黨的對手，例如薩阿德·哈里裡的政黨及其盟友。
真主黨想知道它如何利用選舉來假裝它正在對抗以色列。副領導人詢問其他黎巴嫩政黨：“他們是否會為解放黎巴嫩而工作，或者他們是否符合以色列的佔領及其威脅的繼續——他們是否想奪走抵抗力量，以便以色列人和美國人可以在黎巴嫩為所欲為嗎？”
恐怖組織現在辯稱，這個國家已經被那些據稱與美國合作的政黨毀了。“這些人摧毀了這個國家，現在又加入了一群隸屬於美國大使館的民間社會……由於黎巴嫩的動亂和混亂，這些人在過去兩年中未能實現他們的目標。 。”
真主黨在黎巴嫩日益強大的勢力意味著它面臨更多的反對。近年來，隨著它尋求對該國的更大控制，它受到了攻擊。這說明了在真主黨的強手和平行狀態下，有多少團體爭吵不休。
Hezbollah will seek greater control after 2022 elections
As Lebanon faces political, economic and social crisis, will Hezbollah grow its power or suffer in the polls in upcoming elections?
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: DECEMBER 18, 2021 12:30
POSTERS DEPICTING Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a village near the Lebanese-Syrian border.
(photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
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Hezbollah in Lebanon is looking forward to the 2022 elections there with concerns about its future role in the country. Will it grow its power or suffer in the polls? Hezbollah deputy secretary-general Naim Qassem discussed these issues according to a recent report in Iran’s Tasnim Media.
Some articles think the March 2022 elections, or a postponed version of them in May, could mean a change in Lebanon. Lebanese citizens in the diaspora seek to take part in the vote.
Meanwhile the economy is in a shambles and people are fleeing the country. Hezbollah has held the presidency hostage in the past and has created a parallel state in the country.
Qasim has admitted that Lebanon today is in a difficult condition. Hezbollah knows the country is facing a crisis in political, economic and social aspects.
HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS hold flags marking Resistance and Liberation Day, in Kfar Kila near the Lebanese border with Israel in May. (credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
“People feel that there is chaos at all levels of society, so if we want to get rid of this chaos and move towards a solution, we must recognize the problems and know their number,” the Hezbollah deputy leader said, according to Iranian media.
"After all, we are facing a big problem today and the consequences are unusual," said the deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah in Lebanon. He notes that there is a failure at the judicial level and the parliamentary level. But how can this problem be solved?
“It is clear that this problem can be solved either through the judiciary or through parliament or the cabinet," he said. "These three institutions have solutions to solve this problem, so they must work together.”
The Hezbollah deputy has said that "it is clear that the upcoming election battle is very hot. In the meantime, with international support and money from the United States and the Persian Gulf countries, the other side seeks to seize power in Lebanon and its parliament."
This means Hezbollah views the upcoming election as one where it is pitted against the US and countries in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia has traditionally supported adversaries to Hezbollah tied to the leading Sunni parties, such as Saad Hariri’s party and his allies.
Hezbollah wonders about how it can use the elections to also pretend it is confronting Israel. The deputy leader asked about the other Lebanese parties: “Will they work for the liberation of Lebanon or are they in line with the Israeli occupation and the continuation of its threats - and do they want to take away the power of the resistance so that the Israelis and the Americans can do whatever they want in Lebanon?”
The terror group now argues that the country has been ruined by those parties that supposedly worked with the US. "These people destroyed the country and now a group of civil society affiliated with the US embassy has been added to them…These are the people who have not been able to achieve their goals in the last two years due to the unrest and chaos in Lebanon.”
Hezbollah’s increasing power in Lebanon has meant it faces more opposition. It has come under attacks in recent years as it seeks a greater stranglehold on the country. This illustrates how many groups chafe under Hezbollah’s strong hand and parallel state.
Could Turkey’s currency crisis lead to worse problems for Erdoğan? - analysis
A weakened currency and constant crisis as home could be to the benefit of Turkey’s ruling party.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: DECEMBER 18, 2021 12:21
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a news conference in Istanbul, Turkey October 16, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
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Turkey’s ruling AKP party has struggled to stabilize the lira as Turkey’s currency continues to weaken.
This has been a disaster for Turkey and especially its middle class. However, it is unclear whether the ruling party is quietly applauding the ruin it is causing, by weakening the middle class it can exert more control over the economy and concentrate power.
The ruling party in Turkey, led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, came to power almost two decades ago, partly on an economic platform. Since then, it has developed Turkey but in the last several years as the AKP concentrated power, jailed journalists and opposition politicians and became more nationalist, extremist and religious, the currency has been eroded.
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Now, the Turkish lira is almost at 17 to the US dollar.
This is an incredible disaster and ostensibly the government is working to deal with the problem. Turkey wants to put in place relief measures for banks. It wants to lower interest rates and raise the minimum wage. Monetary policy appears to be chaotic in Ankara. The Turkish central bank has intervened.
However, there are questions about how much Turkey’s leadership really cares.
A US one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER/ILLUSTRATION/FILE PHOTO)
They have destroyed almost all independent media in Turkey so there is very little local critique allowed of the regime in Turkey. Turkey uses its English language media as propaganda to slam the West and ignore its problems at home. For instance, Anadolu, TRT, Daily Sabah and other media do not critique the ruling party. That means Turkey’s ruling party has a stranglehold on the country.
Recently, Ankara appeared more concerned with changing the name of the country to “Turkiye” more than it cares about the currency slide which is bankrupting people. For instance, TRT four days ago had a whole article about how Turkey is now to be called “Turkiye.”
One might think that the country’s leaders would be more concerned with an unprecedented financial crisis.
However, Ankara might be following the lead of other authoritarian regimes, such as Iran, Venezuela, Russia and China. These countries know that economic crises can be used to consolidate power in the leadership.
Evergrande, a major property developer defaulted on $1.2 billion foreign ponds, according to CBS. But that was greeted with a shrug in China. China has also cracked down on tech companies listing overseas in foreign stock markets.
Looking at Turkey’s recent economic problems then it might be good to look at who Erdoğan’s friends are. Turkey’s ruling party is close to Venezuela’s authoritarian regime. Venezuela has destroyed its economy in the last decades as well. It has burned through cash as currency reserves declined this year. It also sold 73 tonnes of gold to foreign countries in 2019, including Turkey.
Iran’s regime, especially the IRGC, has also grown through using US sanctions to its benefit. Hezbollah in Lebanon has done the same.
Turkey’s ruling party blends religious extremism with its own brand of authoritarianism. It poses as modern and wanting to work with the West and Europe, but at its heart, it is about controlling Turkey completely and transforming society.
A weakened currency and constant crisis as home could be to its benefit. The way the leadership has mishandled the currency slide could be incompetence but it could also be stage-managed or using a crisis to the benefit of the regime.
土耳其的貨幣危機是否會給埃爾多安帶來更嚴重的問題？- 分析
貨幣貶值和持續的家庭危機可能對土耳其執政黨有利。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 18 日 12:21
土耳其總統塔伊普·埃爾多安於 2021 年 10 月 16 日在土耳其伊斯坦布爾舉行的新聞發布會上發表講話
（照片來源：路透社/穆拉德·塞澤）
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隨著土耳其貨幣繼續走弱，土耳其執政的正義與發展黨一直在努力穩定里拉。
這對土耳其尤其是中產階級來說是一場災難。然而，目前尚不清楚執政黨是否在暗中為其造成的破壞鼓掌，通過削弱中產階級可以對經濟施加更多控制並集中權力。
由雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安( Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)領導的土耳其執政黨大約在 20 年前上台執政，部分是在經濟平台上。從那時起，它發展了土耳其，但在過去的幾年裡，隨著 AKP 集中權力，監禁記者和反對派政客，並變得更加民族主義、極端主義和宗教，貨幣受到侵蝕。
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現在，土耳其里拉兌美元幾乎是17。
這是一場令人難以置信的災難，表面上政府正在努力解決這個問題。土耳其希望為銀行採取救濟措施。它希望降低利率並提高最低工資。安卡拉的貨幣政策似乎很混亂。土耳其央行出手干預。
然而，有人質疑土耳其的領導層真正關心多少。
A US one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER/ILLUSTRATION/FILE PHOTO)
他們摧毀了土耳其幾乎所有的獨立媒體，因此幾乎不允許對土耳其政權進行當地批評。土耳其利用其英語媒體作為宣傳抨擊西方並忽視其國內問題。例如，Anadolu、TRT、Daily Sabah 等媒體不批評執政黨。這意味著土耳其的執政黨對該國具有控制權。
Could Turkey’s currency crisis lead to worse problems for Erdoğan? - analysis
A weakened currency and constant crisis as home could be to the benefit of Turkey’s ruling party.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: DECEMBER 18, 2021 12:21
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a news conference in Istanbul, Turkey October 16, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
Advertisement
Turkey’s ruling AKP party has struggled to stabilize the lira as Turkey’s currency continues to weaken.
This has been a disaster for Turkey and especially its middle class. However, it is unclear whether the ruling party is quietly applauding the ruin it is causing, by weakening the middle class it can exert more control over the economy and concentrate power.
The ruling party in Turkey, led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, came to power almost two decades ago, partly on an economic platform. Since then, it has developed Turkey but in the last several years as the AKP concentrated power, jailed journalists and opposition politicians and became more nationalist, extremist and religious, the currency has been eroded.
Now, the Turkish lira is almost at 17 to the US dollar.
This is an incredible disaster and ostensibly the government is working to deal with the problem. Turkey wants to put in place relief measures for banks. It wants to lower interest rates and raise the minimum wage. Monetary policy appears to be chaotic in Ankara. The Turkish central bank has intervened.
However, there are questions about how much Turkey’s leadership really cares.
A US one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER/ILLUSTRATION/FILE PHOTO)
They have destroyed almost all independent media in Turkey so there is very little local critique allowed of the regime in Turkey. Turkey uses its English language media as propaganda to slam the West and ignore its problems at home. For instance, Anadolu, TRT, Daily Sabah and other media do not critique the ruling party. That means Turkey’s ruling party has a stranglehold on the country.
Recently, Ankara appeared more concerned with changing the name of the country to “Turkiye” more than it cares about the currency slide which is bankrupting people. For instance, TRT four days ago had a whole article about how Turkey is now to be called “Turkiye.”
One might think that the country’s leaders would be more concerned with an unprecedented financial crisis.
However, Ankara might be following the lead of other authoritarian regimes, such as Iran, Venezuela, Russia and China. These countries know that economic crises can be used to consolidate power in the leadership.
Evergrande, a major property developer defaulted on $1.2 billion foreign ponds, according to CBS. But that was greeted with a shrug in China. China has also cracked down on tech companies listing overseas in foreign stock markets.
Looking at Turkey’s recent economic problems then it might be good to look at who Erdoğan’s friends are. Turkey’s ruling party is close to Venezuela’s authoritarian regime. Venezuela has destroyed its economy in the last decades as well. It has burned through cash as currency reserves declined this year. It also sold 73 tonnes of gold to foreign countries in 2019, including Turkey.
Iran’s regime, especially the IRGC, has also grown through using US sanctions to its benefit. Hezbollah in Lebanon has done the same.
Turkey’s ruling party blends religious extremism with its own brand of authoritarianism. It poses as modern and wanting to work with the West and Europe, but at its heart, it is about controlling Turkey completely and transforming society.
A weakened currency and constant crisis as home could be to its benefit. The way the leadership has mishandled the currency slide could be incompetence but it could also be stage-managed or using a crisis to the benefit of the regime.
最近，安卡拉似乎更關心將國家名稱更改為“土耳其語”，而不是擔心讓人們破產的貨幣貶值。比如，四天前TRT有一篇關於土耳其現在如何被稱為“Turkiye”的整篇文章。
人們可能會認為，該國領導人會更關心一場史無前例​​的金融危機。
然而，安卡拉可能會效仿伊朗、委內瑞拉、俄羅斯和中國等其他專制政權。這些國家知道經濟危機可以用來鞏固領導層的權力。
據哥倫比亞廣播公司報導，大型房地產開發商恆大地產違約了 12 億美元的外國池塘。但這在中國卻是聳了聳肩。中國還嚴厲打擊在海外股市上市的科技公司。
看看土耳其最近的經濟問題，看看埃爾多安的朋友是誰可能會很好。土耳其的執政黨與委內瑞拉的專制政權關係密切。委內瑞拉在過去幾十年中也摧毀了其經濟。由於今年外匯儲備下降，它已經耗盡了現金。它還在 2019 年向包括土耳其在內的外國出售了 73 噸黃金。
伊朗政權，尤其是伊斯蘭革命衛隊，也通過利用美國的製裁對其有利而發展壯大。黎巴嫩的真主黨也這樣做了。
土耳其執政黨將宗教極端主義與自己的威權主義結合在一起。它表面上看起來很現代，希望與西方和歐洲合作，但其核心是完全控制土耳其並改造社會。
貨幣貶值和持續的家庭危機可能對它有利。領導層錯誤處理貨幣下滑的方式可能是無能，但也可能是階段性管理或利用危機為政權謀取利益。
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