2021.12.06 國際新聞導讀-比特幣等電子貨幣因為美聯廚宣布升息而暴跌20％、土耳其改善與周邊國家關係、美伊核武協議倘無繼續支撐則以方敦促美方動手軍事行動。

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.06 國際新聞導讀-比特幣等電子貨幣因為美聯廚宣布升息而暴跌20％、土耳其改善與周邊國家關係、美伊核武協議倘無繼續支撐則以方敦促美方動手軍事行動。
由於美聯儲建議加息，比特幣在數小時內下跌超過 9000 美元
這一下跌反映了整個市場的下跌：流行的 NFT 託管區塊鏈以太坊的代幣 (ETH) 從 4,600 美元跌至 3,800 美元，而其他代幣的價值下跌了 20%。
通過ZACHY HENNESSEY
（照片來源：DADO RUVIC/REUTERS）
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比特幣有一個粗略的週末，作為旗艦cryptocurrency遭受了相當大的下降在價格上週六，從$ 53,000名驟降至$ 42,000低，它已經自10月以來最低。不過，該數字資產此後重新獲得了一些支持，截至週日上午，其價格略低於 50,000 美元。
這一下跌反映了整個市場的下跌：託管區塊鏈以太坊代幣的流行非同質代幣 (NFT) 從 4,600 美元跌至 3,800 美元，而其他代幣的價值下跌了 20%。
分析師兼資深交易員 Ilan Tennenbaum 將加密貨幣市場與美國股市之間的相關性作為對劇烈運動的潛在解釋：上周美聯儲主席杰羅姆鮑威爾表示，如果通脹繼續以目前的速度上升，美聯儲可能會要求在 2022 年加息，比之前預期的要早。
Tennenbaum 說：“當世界各地的利率都很低，人們無處可放錢時，他們會將資產投入股票和加密貨幣市場。” 他建議快速加密清算反映了對美聯儲提高利息計劃的保障。
“高利率對美元有利，對股票和加密貨幣等高風險資產不利”。
在這張圖片插圖中可以看到虛擬貨幣比特幣的表示（來源：REUTERS）
此外，高槓桿可能是部分原因。
“每當槓桿過高時，市場往往會非常迅速地崩盤，以清算槓桿。然後它可以再次上升，”滕南鮑姆說。“我們昨天看到的是，大約 25 億美元被清算 [主要是多頭頭寸]，現在市場可以再次上漲。”
“好的項目在未來幾年仍會存在，”坦南鮑姆說，將這種市場範圍的波動與 2000 年代中期的互聯網泡沫進行比較。“其中 90% 的公司不再與我們合作，但成功的公司是 Facebook、Ebay、谷歌；這樣的公司。加密市場也是如此：我們將看到很多項目消失，但高質量的項目將在未來幾年內繼續存在。”
整個加密貨幣目前正處於美國證券交易委員會認可的道路上，該委員會希望對去中心化貨幣制定某種形式的監管；儘管這個過程很艱鉅，但結果似乎是積極的。
“2022 年出台的監管將對市場非常有利，”滕南鮑姆說。“在短期內，它會造成波動，可能會導致市場崩潰；但從長遠來看，比方說從現在開始的五六年，這絕對是一件好事。”
Bybit 通訊主管 Igneus Terrenus 表示，價格波動是市場調整。
“這是今年第一次重大調整，不是由某些 FUD [恐懼、不確定性和懷疑]或推文引發的，這表明市場需要更多時間進行整合才能測試新高，”Terrenus 說. “一整年的過山車之旅一定讓多頭和空頭都筋疲力盡。但是，當市場波動時，誰在買入，誰在賣出，將會為假期過後的走勢留下線索。”
Bitcoin falls over $9k in hours as Fed suggests higher interest rates
This drop reflects a market-wide dip: popular NFT-hosting blockchain Ethereum’s token (ETH) fell from $4,600 to $3,800, while other tokens fell as much as 20% in value.
By ZACHY HENNESSEY
Published: DECEMBER 5, 2021 12:48
Updated: DECEMBER 5, 2021 15:57
le bitcoin, une nouvelle monnaie virtuelle
(photo credit: DADO RUVIC/REUTERS)
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Bitcoin had a rough weekend as the flagship cryptocurrency suffered a considerable drop in price on Saturday, plummeting from $53,000 to a low of $42,000, the lowest it’s been since October. The digital asset has since regained some ground, though, and was standing at just under $50,000 as of Sunday morning.
This drop reflects a market-wide dip: Popular non-fungible token (NFT) hosting blockchain Ethereum’s token fell from $4,600 to $3,800, while other tokens fell as much as 20% in value.
Analyst and veteran trader Ilan Tennenbaum cited the correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market as a potential explanation for the drastic movement: Last week US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that if inflation continues to rise at its current rate, the Fed might be required to raise interest rates in 2022, earlier than previously expected.
“When interest rates are low around the world and people don’t have where to put their money, they put their assets in the stock and crypto markets,” said Tennenbaum. He suggested that the rapid crypto liquidation reflects a safeguard against the Federal Reserve’s plans to increase interest.
“High rates are good for the US Dollar and bad for high-risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrency”.
Representations of virtual currency Bitcoin are seen in this picture illustration (credit: REUTERS)
Additionally, high amounts of leverage may be partly to blame.
“Every time that leverage goes too high, the market tends to crash very very quickly, to liquidate that leverage. Then it can go up again,” said Tennenbaum. “What we saw yesterday is that around $2.5 billion were liquidated [mostly long positions], and now the market can go up again.”
“The good projects will still be here in the years to come,” said Tennenbaum, comparing this kind of market-wide fluctuation to the dotcom bubble in the mid 2000s. “Ninety percent of those companies are not with us anymore, but the companies that did make it are Facebook, Ebay, Google; companies like that. It’s the same thing in the crypto market: We’re going to see a lot of projects disappearing, but the quality ones are going to be here for years to come.”
Mark Zuckerberg Buys 600 Acres on Kauai in $53 Million DealSponsored by Mansion Global
Cryptocurrency as a whole is currently on the road to recognition by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which hopes to enact some form of regulation on decentralized currency; and though that process has been an arduous one, the upshot seems positive.
“The regulation that’s coming in 2022 is going to be very good for the market,” said Tennenbaum. “In the short term, it can create volatility, it can crash the market; but when looking at the long term, let’s say five-six years from now, it’s definitely a good thing.”
Igneus Terrenus, head of communications at Bybit, said the price fluctuation was a market correction.
“This is the first major correction of the year that is not triggered by some FUD [fear, uncertainty and doubt] or tweet, and goes to show that the market will need more time for consolidation before it can test new highs,” Terrenus said. “Both bulls and bears must be fairly exhausted by a full year of roller-coaster rides. But who is buying and who is selling when the market ranges will leave clues as to where things will go after the holiday season.”
宗教神職人員敦促為波蘭和白俄羅斯邊境的尋求庇護者提供援助
數以千計的移民和尋求庇護者在陷入國際口角後，在東歐邊境面臨著可怕的境遇。
作者：傑瑞米·沙龍
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 18:15
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 19:58
在領土國防軍於 2021 年 11 月 12 日發布的這張照片中，波蘭士兵和警察在波蘭庫茲尼察附近的波蘭/白俄羅斯邊境觀察移民。
（照片來源：IREK DOROZANSKI/DWOT/Handout via REUTERS）
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來自波蘭天主教、路德教、猶太教和穆斯林社區的高級宗教領袖呼籲波蘭總統安傑伊·杜達採取更多措施減輕目前滯留在白俄羅斯和波蘭邊境的移民和尋求庇護者的痛苦。
這四位領導人援引基督教、猶太教和穆斯林的經文，命令總統向陷入外交和人道主義危機的人們提供更大的援助，並表示波蘭有道德義務防止進一步的苦難。
簽署人包括代表波蘭天主教主教團的 Krzysztof Zadarko 主教、路德教會的主教 Jerzy Samiec、首席拉比 Michael Schudrich 和代表穆斯林社區的 Mufti Tomasz Miśkiewicz。
“總統和總理應該明白，波蘭亞伯拉罕信仰的宗教領袖都對邊境危機感到擔憂和不安，”舒德里希週日表示。
繼 11 月提交信函後，各國領導人上週四會見了總統府部長博格納·揚克，進一步表達了他們的擔憂。
白俄羅斯總統亞歷山大·盧卡申科於 2020 年 11 月 30 日在白俄羅斯明斯克與歐亞經濟委員會主席米哈伊爾·米亞斯尼科維奇舉行會議。（圖片來源：MAXIM GUCHEK/BELTA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS）
由獨裁者亞歷山大·盧卡申科( Alexander Lukashenko)領導的白俄羅斯最近幾個月允許數千名伊拉克人和其他人進入該國，並通過幫助他們到達與波蘭和立陶宛的邊界來鼓勵他們嘗試進入歐盟。
這些國家大多拒絕讓他們入境，而白俄羅斯安全部隊拒絕讓他們離開邊境地區。
盧卡申科因 5 月份歐盟對白俄羅斯實施的製裁而痛心疾首，此前白俄羅斯政權強迫一架瑞安航空公司的商用飛機在飛往立陶宛維爾紐斯的途中降落在明斯克，以逮捕一名反對派活動人士和他的女朋友。
波蘭和白俄羅斯邊境的確切人數尚不清楚，但媒體報導稱這一數字在 2,000 至 5,000 人之間，白俄羅斯其他地區的人數在 15,000 至 20,000 人之間。
他們目前正面臨東歐冬季的惡劣天氣條件，缺乏食物和其他人道主義必需品。
據人權觀察組織稱，至少有 13 名移民在邊境的波蘭一側死亡，而更多的移民可能在白俄羅斯一側死亡。由於媒體和人道主義組織無法進入那裡，因此不知道數字。
“人們在波蘭邊境受苦受難。作為三個亞伯拉罕教派的神職人員和波蘭公民，我們不能接受這樣的悲劇正在我們眼前上演的事實——一場人道主義災難，”宗教領袖寫信給杜達。
“我們三個教派的聖經明確信息禁止我們這樣做，”他們繼續引用希伯來聖經、新約和古蘭經。
Religious clergy urge aid for asylum seekers on Polish-Belarusian border
Thousands of migrants and asylum seekers have are facing dire circumstances on the Eastern European border after becoming trapped in an international spat.
By JEREMY SHARON
Published: DECEMBER 5, 2021 18:15
Updated: DECEMBER 5, 2021 19:58
Polish soldiers and police watch migrants at the Poland/Belarus border near Kuznica, Poland, in this photograph released by the Territorial Defence Forces, November 12, 2021.
(photo credit: IREK DOROZANSKI/DWOT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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Senior religious leaders from the Catholic, Lutheran, Jewish, and Muslim communities in Poland have called on Polish President Andrzej Duda to do more to alleviate the suffering of migrants and asylum seekers currently stuck on the Belarus-Polish border.
Citing Christian, Jewish, and Muslim scriptures, the four leaders adjured the president to provide greater assistance to those caught up in the diplomatic and humanitarian crisis and said Poland had a moral obligation to prevent further suffering.
The signatories include Bishop Krzysztof Zadarko representing the Catholic Episcopate of Poland, Bishop Jerzy Samiec of the Lutheran church, Chief Rabbi Michael Schudrich and Mufti Tomasz Miśkiewicz representing the Muslim community.
“The president and the prime minister should understand that the religious leadership of the Abrahamic faiths in Poland are all concerned and upset by the crisis on the border,” Schudrich said on Sunday.
Following the submission of their letter in November, the leaders met with Minister Bogna Janke of the Presidential Chancellery last Thursday to further voice their concerns.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a meeting with Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission Mikhail Myasnikovich in Minsk, Belarus November 30, 2020. (credit: MAXIM GUCHEK/BELTA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Belarus, led by dictator Alexander Lukashenko, has in recent months allowed thousands of Iraqis and others to enter the country, and encouraged them to try and enter the EU by helping them reach its borders with Poland and Lithuania.
Those nations have mostly refused to allow them entry, while the Belarusian security forces refuse to let them leave the border region.
Lukashenko is smarting from sanctions imposed on Belarus by the European Union in May after the regime forced a commercial Ryanair airplane en route to Vilnius, Lithuania, to land in Minsk in order to arrest an opposition activist and his girlfriend.
Exact numbers of people on the Polish-Belarus border are not known, but media reports have put the figure at between 2,000 to 5,000 people, with between 15,000 to 20,000 present in the rest of Belarus.
They are currently facing the severe weather conditions of the eastern European winter and lack food and other humanitarian necessities.
At least 13 migrants have died on the Polish side of the border, according to Human Rights Watch, while more have likely died on the Belarus side. Numbers are not known due to the lack of access there for the media and humanitarian organizations.
“People suffer and die on Polish borders. As clergy of the three Abrahamic denominations, and as Polish citizens, we cannot accept the fact that such a tragedy is unfolding before our eyes – a humanitarian catastrophe,” wrote the religious leaders to Duda.
“We are prohibited from this by the unequivocal message of the Holy Scriptures of our three denominations,” they continued, citing the Hebrew Bible, the New Testament, and the Koran.
美國轉向中國對美國的中東盟友來說既是機遇也是危險
五角大樓建議將軍事資源轉移到印太地區。
作者：丹尼爾·索南菲爾德/媒體熱線
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 03:15
2021 年 11 月 1 日，美國和中國的國旗從美國馬薩諸塞州波士頓唐人街附近的燈柱上飄揚。
（圖片來源：路透社/BRIAN SNYDER）
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美國將注意力轉向“中國”的政策國防部的全球態勢評估報告挑戰”和印太地區，同時減少其在其他地方——包括中東——的存在的政策將繼續下去。 GPR) 已於週一宣布完成。
儘管美國在該地區的盟友和敵人並不奇怪，但這次審查再次強調了為美國減少存在做好準備的必要性，這已經為最近的一些政策提供了信息，並且肯定會影響未來的態度。
公眾無法獲得完整的審查，但五角大樓週一的聲明說：“審查的結論是在阿富汗行動結束和國防戰略持續發展之後的一個關鍵轉折點。… GPR 將有助於加強態勢決策過程，提高國防部的全球響應能力，並為下一個國防戰略草案提供信息。
“在印太地區，審查指導與盟國和夥伴開展更多合作，以推進有助於地區穩定並阻止中國潛在的軍事侵略和來自朝鮮的威脅的舉措。這些舉措包括為軍事夥伴關係活動尋求更大的區域准入；加強澳大利亞和太平洋島嶼的基礎設施；併計劃在澳大利亞部署輪換飛機，正如 9 月宣布的那樣，”聲明繼續說道。
國防部新聞的一篇文章指出了這種做法的一些實際後果，例如改善美國在澳大利亞、關島和整個太平洋島嶼的防禦基礎設施。
關於中東，五角大樓的聲明說：“GPR 評估了國防部對伊朗的態度以及國防部在阿富汗的行動結束後不斷變化的反恐要求。在伊拉克和敘利亞，國防部的態勢將繼續支持擊敗伊斯蘭國運動並建設夥伴部隊的能力。展望未來，審查指示國防部對中東的持久態勢要求進行額外分析。”
2021 年 4 月 20 日，中國遼寧省丹東市，在分隔朝鮮和中國的鴨綠江遊船上，一名男子站在飄揚的中國國旗附近。（圖片來源：REUTERS/TINGSHU WANG）
國防部新聞文章稱喬拜登總統已接受審查的建議。它還進一步指出，“鑑於國務卿 [國防部長勞埃德奧斯汀]將中國視為美國的步伐挑戰，因此印度-太平洋地區成為審查的優先地區也就不足為奇了。”
負責政策的代理副國防部長瑪拉·卡林博士告訴國防部新聞，“正如奧斯汀部長所指出的那樣……我們負有全球責任，必須確保我們的部隊做好準​​備並實現現代化。這些考慮要求我們不斷改變我們在中東的態勢，但我們始終有能力根據威脅環境向該地區快速部署部隊。”
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費城外交政策研究所中東項目高級研究員、美國陸軍戰爭學院戰略研究所中東安全研究教授克里斯托弗博蘭博士告訴媒體，“我強烈懷疑我們將看到更多的是美國軍隊存在的重新調整，而不是大規模撤軍或大幅削減美國軍事存在。”
博蘭以伊拉克為例，表示雖然美國表示其在該國的作戰任務將在 2021 年 12 月結束，但“這 2,500 名士兵中的許多人可能會在過渡到軍事訓練或‘建議和協助任務’期間留下。
“除了維持必要的後勤、儲存和運輸網絡外，該地區的陸軍地面存在可能會轉變為更專注於執行和支持反恐任務，以在需要時支持未來潛在的美軍增援。與此同時，美國海軍和空軍將提供軍事力量，對伊朗的侵略行動起到威懾作用，”博蘭進一步說。
此外，愛國者導彈連以及航空母艦戰鬥群等特種部隊可能會被派往其他“高需求戰區”，他說。
在談到這些變化對美國在中東的盟友的影響時，博蘭說：“美國領導人不斷聽到地區領導人抱怨美國正在放棄該地區。然而，出於國內和國際政治的原因，這種言論被大大夸大了。美國將繼續在該地區進行軍事、經濟和外交活動，但由於美國領導人以犧牲長達 20 年的‘反恐戰爭’為代價，專注於大國競爭，因此強度會有所降低。”
然而，B'huth - 迪拜公共政策研究中心和海灣安全專家的研究主管 Rasha Loai Al Joundy 表達了美國在海灣地區的傳統盟友可能會感受到的一種被遺棄的感覺。
“關於美國退出中東的討論已經醞釀了十多年。然而，真正退出該地區的行動直到最近才真正實現，最關鍵的一步是在受到伊朗支持的胡塞武裝威脅的情況下從沙特阿拉伯撤出導彈防禦系統，這一舉動被簡單描述為艾爾瓊迪說，白宮中東協調員布雷特麥格克是“自然重新部署”。
“無論國防部長勞埃德·奧斯汀如何宣稱美國對該地區盟友的承諾，或美國在海灣地區的永久利益，這些行動都導致了該地區嚴重轉向的感覺。這在美國盟友之間引起了激烈的討論，”艾爾瓊迪告訴媒體專線。
她說，“美國在維持其在海灣地區影響力的願景方面的戰略發生了根本性變化。”
Al Joundy 解釋說，美國現在試圖通過向海灣國家提供先進武器來影響該地區，這將有助於彌補美國減少的支持。不過，她警告說，“將這種方法轉化為現實的意圖至少需要十年的時間，因為它包括包括以色列在內的地區國家之間的大規模培訓和合作，以便能夠領導防禦模式作為美國軍事保護傘的替代方案。 。”
Al Joundy 補充說，“美國盟友的主要威脅”德黑蘭似乎並沒有被先進彈藥嚇倒，“因為它適用於影子戰爭，而不是直接對抗。” 考慮到這一點，她說“不能保證阿拉伯國家在中央司令部（美國軍方的中央司令部）下與以色列合作的戰略會導致一個安全區域並威懾伊朗。”
值得注意的是，Al Joundy 認為，美國的重新調整不僅可能給該地區的盟友帶來麻煩，而且可能會適得其反。“如果美國想要遏制中國，海灣地區應該是其首要目標，而不是相反，因為中國依賴該地區的能源安全，並尋求將其納入其絲綢之路倡議，”她說。
此外，俄羅斯和伊朗可能會擴大規模以填補美國撤軍造成的缺口。隨著美國退步，“該地區將面臨伊朗及其代理人大規模追求霸權存在的混亂局面，可能比該地區在 2015 年簽署 JCPOA [伊朗核協議] 或 [美國] 2011 年從伊拉克撤軍。”
在海灣地區，Al Joundy 說，“各國都在努力對美國的新戰略做出積極反應，但也在製定自己的戰略。” 這包括修復與卡塔爾和土耳其的關係，甚至與德黑蘭接觸。阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯都努力緩和與伊斯蘭共和國的緊張關係。Al Joundy 解釋說，這表明這兩個國家在面對不斷變化的美國優先事項時採取行動保護自己的緊迫性。
“與敵人[伊朗和土耳其]合作並通過鞏固亞伯拉罕協議結交新朋友的戰略是海灣地區新外交政策的基石[as]，事實上，它應該是，”Al Joundy說。然而，她警告說，“需要格外小心，因為與敵人合作並不能改變他們是敵人的事實。”
特拉維夫大學國家安全研究所高級研究員、地區安全和美國中東政策專家 Eldad Shavit Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit 也告訴媒體，該地區長期以來的理解是“美國人正在改變他們的優先事項，將注意力和力量主要集中在亞洲。”
他說，這並不意味著美國不再是該地區的重要組成部分，而是在非常仔細地考慮其利益之前不太可能進行軍事承諾。
“我相信，”沙維特說，“如今該地區的發展在很大程度上是對美國政策已經改變的理解的結果。”
除了 Al Joundy 提到的外交努力外，他還指出敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德 (Bashar al-Assad) 與埃及和阿聯酋等阿拉伯國家之間的關係正在升溫。撕裂的國家。“這在很大程度上源於對未來行為需要不同的理解，主要是因為感覺……這將是一個美國不再是中心的中東，”他說。
對於以色列，沙維特說，“毫無疑問，美國在這裡的理解是以色列安全議程的一部分，而當阿拉伯人認為美國不再在這裡時，這肯定會傷害以色列，也許甚至挑戰它對敵人的立場。”
以色列的主要擔憂是伊朗，沙維特解釋說，耶路撒冷希望白宮在與德黑蘭打交道時更加自信，包括澄清針對該國核計劃的軍事行動已經擺在桌面上。然而，他說，這似乎是美國不感興趣的事情。恰恰相反，為了重振 2015 年的核協議，美國在中斷五個月後於週一恢復了與伊朗的談判。
然而，沙維特說，美國退步對以色列來說並不全是壞事。
“我認為目前的情況可能是[以色列]”進一步與海灣盟友合作的機會，並推進與美國在氣候變化和供水等全球問題上的合作，”他說。 . 由於美國的參與減少，以色列一方面也可以通過幫助維護美國在該地區的利益來增進與華盛頓的了解，同時或許有更好的機會來促進自己的利益。
博蘭也看到了一個可能的機會。
“理想情況下，這些發展將迫使阿拉伯領導人緩和地區緊張局勢，並在整個地區建立更有效的合作紐帶。就防禦態勢而言，這將意味著降低地區緊張局勢，同時制定共同的海灣阿拉伯軍事戰略並建立綜合軍事能力，這將更好地有助於威懾伊朗，”他說。
“在國內政策方面，阿拉伯領導人需要直接解決那些助長阿拉伯起義的國內政治、經濟和社會力量。這將包括國內改革，以提高政府的效率，創造更具彈性和寬容的社會，並為其公民創造更好的經濟機會，”他繼續說道。
然而，該地區的長期不穩定威脅著緩和局勢的努力，並加劇了地區內的競爭和緊張局勢。
“這種競爭與合作之間拉扯的最終結果是不確定的。但在我看來，抓住目前緩和緊張局勢、加強一體化和更有效合作的前景，將更好地服務於該地區的未來，”博蘭說。
American shift to China both opportunity and peril for US mideast allies
Pentagon recommends shifting military resources to the Indo-Pacific region.
By DANIEL SONNENFELD/THE MEDIA LINE
Published: DECEMBER 5, 2021 03:15
The flags of the United States and China fly from a lamppost in the Chinatown neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts, US, November 1, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)
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The American policy of redirecting its attention to the “China
Although not surprising to US allies and foes in the region, the review once more highlights the need to prepare for the decreased American presence, which has informed some policies in recent times and will most certainly shape attitudes in the future.
The review in its entirety is not available to the public, but the Pentagon’s statement on Monday said, “The conclusion of the review comes at a key inflection point following the end of operations in Afghanistan and ongoing development of the National Defense Strategy. … The GPR will help strengthen posture decision-making processes, improve DoD’s global response capability, and inform the draft of the next National Defense Strategy.
“In the Indo-Pacific, the review directs additional cooperation with allies and partners to advance initiatives that contribute to regional stability and deter potential Chinese military aggression and threats from North Korea. These initiatives include seeking greater regional access for military partnership activities; enhancing infrastructure in Australia and the Pacific Islands; and planning rotational aircraft deployments in Australia, as announced in September,” the statement continued.
A DoD News article noted some practical consequences of this, such as improving American defense infrastructure in Australia, Guam and across the Pacific islands.
On the Middle East, the Pentagon’s statement said, “The GPR assessed the department’s approach toward Iran and the evolving counterterrorism requirements following the end of DoD operations in Afghanistan. In Iraq and Syria, DoD posture will continue to support the Defeat-ISIS campaign and building the capacity of partner forces. Looking ahead, the review directs DoD to conduct additional analysis on enduring posture requirements in the Middle East.”
A man stands near a fluttering Chinese national flag on a cruise boat on the Yalu River separating North Korea and China, in Dandong, Liaoning province, China April 20, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/TINGSHU WANG)
The DoD News article said President Joe Biden had accepted the review’s recommendations. It further pointed out, “It is no surprise that the Indo-Pacific is the priority region for the review, given the secretary’s [Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s] focus on China as America’s pacing challenge.”
Dr. Mara Karlin, acting deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, told DoD News, “As Secretary Austin noted … we have global responsibilities and must ensure the readiness and modernization of our forces. These considerations require us to make continuous changes to our Middle East posture, but we always have the capability to rapidly deploy forces to the region based on the threat environment.”
Dr. Christopher Bolan, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program and professor of Middle East security studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, told The Media Line, “I strongly suspect that we will see much more of a realignment of US force presence rather than a wholesale withdrawal or major reduction in US military presence.”
Bolan points to Iraq as an example, suggesting that while the US has said that its combat mission in the country will end by December 2021, “many of those 2,500 troops could remain while transitioning to a military training or ‘advise and assist mission.
“The army ground presence in the region will likely transition to a more narrow focus on conducting and supporting counterterrorism missions in addition to maintaining needed logistical, storage and transportation networks necessary to support a potential future surge of US forces if needed. Meanwhile, the US naval and air forces will provide the military muscle serving as a deterrent to aggressive Iranian actions,” Bolan says further.
Additionally, specialty units such as Patriot missile batteries, as well as aircraft carrier battle groups, may be sent to other “high demand theaters,” he says.
Referring to the impact of these changes on American allies in the Middle East, Bolan says, “American leaders hear a constant chorus of complaints from regional leaders that the US is abandoning the region. However, this rhetoric is greatly exaggerated for reasons of domestic and international politics. The US will remain militarily, economically and diplomatically engaged in the region, although at a reduced level of intensity as American leaders focus on great power competition at the expense of the 20-year-long ‘war on terrorism.”
However, Rasha Loai Al Joundy, a research supervisor at B’huth − The Dubai Public Policy Research Centre and a Gulf security expert, expresses what may be termed a sense of abandonment felt by traditional American allies in the Gulf.
“The discussion about US withdrawal from the Middle East has been brewing for more than a decade. However, the action to really withdraw from the region didn’t really materialize until recently, and the most critical step was withdrawing US missile defenses from Saudi Arabia in the midst of being threatened by Iran-backed Houthis, a move that was simply described by Brett McGurk, White House Middle East coordinator, as ‘natural redeployment,’ Al Joundy says.
“No matter how the secretary of defense Lloyd Austin asserted the commitment of the US to its allies in the region or the perpetual interest the US has in the Gulf, the actions led to the feeling of a serious pivoting from the region. And it generated a heated discussion among US allies,” Al Joundy told The Media Line.
She says there has been a “fundamental change in the US strategy regarding its vision of maintaining its influence in the Gulf region.”
The US now seeks to impact the region, Al Joundy explains, by supplying Gulf countries with advanced weaponry that will help to compensate for the reduced US support. She warns, though, that “the intention to translate the approach to reality needs at least a decade since it includes massive training and cooperation among regional countries, including Israel, to be able to lead a defensive model as an alternative to the US military umbrella.”
Al Joundy adds that Tehran, “the main threat to US allies,” isn’t deterred, it appears, by advanced munitions “since it works on shadow wars, not direct confrontations.” With this in mind, she says “there is no guarantee that a strategy in which the Arab states work together with Israel under CENTCOM [the US military’s Central Command] would lead to a safe region and deter Iran.”
Notably, Al Joundy believes that the American realignment may not only spell trouble for its allies in the region but could also prove counterproductive to its own goals. “If the US wants to contain China, the Gulf should be on its top list, not the contrary, since China relies on this region for its energy security and seeks to include it in its Silk Road initiative,” she says.
Additionally, Russia and Iran are likely to expand to fill the gaps created by the American withdrawal. Following the US stepping back, “the region would face the chaos of Iran and its proxies pursuing hegemonic presence on a massive scale, probably more than what the region witnessed after signing the JCPOA [Iran nuclear deal] in 2015 or after the [US] withdrawal from Iraq in 2011.”
In the Gulf, says Al Joundy, “countries are trying to react positively to the US’s new strategy but also putting [out] a strategy of their own.” This includes repairing relations with Qatar and Turkey and even reaching out to Tehran. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have made efforts to lower tensions with the Islamic Republic. Al Joundy explains that this is indicative of the urgency with which these two countries are acting to protect themselves, in the face of changing American priorities.
“A strategy of working with the foes [Iran and Turkey] and making new friends by solidifying the Abraham Accords is the cornerstone of the new foreign policy in the Gulf [as], in fact, it should be,” Al Joundy says. She warned, however, that “extra caution is needed because working with the foes does not change the fact of them being foes.”
Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit, a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies and an expert on regional security and US policy in the Middle East, also told The Media Line that understanding in the region has long been that “the Americans are changing their priorities, and focusing their attention and force mainly on Asia.”
This does not mean, he says, that the US has stopped being an important element in the region, but it is less likely to commit militarily before very carefully considering its interests.
“I believe,” Shavit says, “that a significant part of the developments in the region nowadays are a consequence of this understanding that US policy has changed.”
In addition to diplomatic efforts mentioned by Al Joundy, he points to warming ties between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Arab states such as Egypt and the UAE, which had turned their backs on the president, blamed for atrocities against civilians in the war-torn country. “Much of this arises from the understanding that future conduct needs to be different, mainly because of the feeling … that it will be a Middle East in which the US is no longer central,” he says.
For Israel, Shavit says “there is no doubt that the understanding that the US is here was a part of Israel’s security agenda, and the moment that the Arab conception is that the US is no longer here, that could certainly harm Israel, and maybe even challenge its stance in relation to its enemies.”
Israel’s main cause for concern is Iran, and Shavit explains that Jerusalem wishes the White House were more assertive in its dealings with Tehran, including clarifying that military action against the country's nuclear program is on the table. That, however, is something that the US does not appear to be interested in, he says. Quite the contrary, on Monday, the US resumed negotiations with Iran after a five-month hiatus in an effort to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
America stepping back is not all bad for Israel, however, says Shavit.
“I think that the present situation could be an opportunity [for Israel]” to further its cooperation with its allies in the Gulf, as well as advance its collaboration with the US on global concerns such as climate change and water supplies,” he says. With the US less present, Israel could improve its understanding with Washington as well by helping to preserve American interests in the region on the one hand, and at the same time, perhaps having a better chance at furthering its own interests.
Bolan also sees a possible opportunity.
“Ideally these developments would compel Arab leaders to reduce regional tensions and establish more effective cooperative bonds across the region. In terms of defense posture, this would mean lowering regional tensions while forging a common Gulf Arab military strategy and establishing integrated military capabilities that would better contribute to deterrence of Iran,” he says.
“In terms of domestic policies, Arab leaders will need to directly address those domestic political, economic and social forces that fueled the Arab uprisings. That would include domestic reforms that will improve the effectiveness of government, create more resilient and tolerant societies, and generate better economic opportunities for their citizens,” he continues.
However, perpetual instability in the region threatens efforts of de-escalation and increases intra-regional competition and tension.
“The ultimate outcome of this pull and tug between competition and cooperation is uncertain. But there is little doubt in my mind that the future of the region would be better served by seizing on the current prospects for reduced tensions, increased integration, and more effective cooperation,” Bolan says.
摩薩德首領甘茨向美國施壓以打擊伊朗
國防部長本尼甘茨將跟隨摩薩德主任大衛巴尼亞作為周四前往美國的全場新聞的一部分。
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 20:17
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 22:01
人們在德黑蘭傳遞伊朗已故領導人阿亞圖拉·魯霍拉·霍梅尼的壁畫
（照片來源：NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS）
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摩薩德主管大衛·巴尼亞將於週日晚上飛往華盛頓，試圖說服美國要么對伊朗採取軍事行動，要么支持以色列的秘密行動，要么至少加大製裁力度。
鑑於拜登政府在幕後明確表示其遠未支持軍事行動，對以色列來說最好的情況可能是更嚴厲的製裁。
國防部長本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）將跟隨巴尼亞（Barnea），作為周四前往美國的全場媒體報導的一部分。
世界大國與伊朗伊斯蘭共和國之間的維也納會談於上週四陷入低谷，美國和歐盟代表團均宣布德黑蘭的要求過於極端，並指責其放棄去年春天達成的所有諒解，以共同回歸 2015 年 JCPOA 核協議。交易。
美國官員甚至表示，中國和俄羅斯對伊朗的強硬要求感到震驚。
從本質上講，伊斯蘭共和國要求取消所有製裁，而不僅僅是核制裁，這甚至超出了奧巴馬政府所承認的範圍，同時希望將其自 2019 年年中以來在違反先進離心機的情況下取得的大部分核進展收入囊中。 JCPOA 的規定。
艾薩克·赫爾佐格總統、納夫塔利·貝內特總理和摩薩德首席大衛·巴尼亞向 12 名摩薩德員工頒發了卓越證書。（信用：CHAIM TZACH/GPO）
在電話上週四總理納夫塔利貝內特和美國國務卿安東尼布林肯之間，前者表示世界大國必須停止與談判，對伊朗實行嚴格的措施。
週五，布林肯本人表示，最新一輪伊朗核談判結束是因為伊朗“似乎並不認真”。
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週四，摩薩德負責人表示，以色列情報機構將挫敗德黑蘭擁有核武器的任何企圖。
“伊朗不會擁有核武器——未來幾年不會，永遠不會。這是我個人的承諾：這是摩薩德的承諾，”巴尼亞說。
以色列總統艾薩克·赫爾佐格在接受美國駐以色列大使托馬斯·奈德斯的國書的儀式上發表了類似的聲明，稱如果國際社會未能挫敗伊朗的核野心，以色列將自行採取行動。
“如果國際社會在這個問題上不採取強硬立場——以色列會這樣做。以色列會保護自己，”赫爾佐格說。
耶路撒冷郵政工作人員為本報告做出了貢獻。
Gantz, Mossad chief to pressure US to attack Iran
Defense Minister Benny Gantz will follow Mossad Director David Barnea as part of a full-court press heading to the US on Thursday.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB
Published: DECEMBER 5, 2021 20:17
Updated: DECEMBER 5, 2021 22:01
PEOPLE PASS a mural of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Tehran
(photo credit: NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS)
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Mossad Director David Barnea will fly out to Washington on Sunday evening to attempt to convince the US either to engage in military action against Iran, to endorse Israeli covert action or to at least ramp up sanctions.
Given that the Biden administration has made it clear behind the scenes that it is nowhere near endorsing military action, the best-case scenario for Israel may be tougher sanctions.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz will follow Barnea as part of a full-court press heading to the US on Thursday.
The Vienna talks between the world powers and the Islamic Republic hit a low last Thursday with both the US and EU delegations declaring Tehran's demands to be extreme and accusing it of abandoning all of the understandings reached last spring toward a mutual return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.
American officials even said that China and Russia were taken aback by how hardline the Iranian demands were.
Essentially, the Islamic Republic is demanding the removal of all sanctions, not just nuclear, which goes beyond even what the Obama administration conceded, while wanting to pocket and keep much of its nuclear progress it has made since mid-2019 with advanced centrifuges in violation of the JCPOA.
President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and Mossad chief David Barnea presented certificates of excellence to twelve Mossad employees. (credit: CHAIM TZACH/GPO)
In a phone call between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday, the former said world powers must halt negotiations with and impose strict measures on Iran.
On Friday, Blinken himself said that the latest round of Iran nuclear talks ended because the Islamic Republic "does not seem to be serious."
On Thursday, the Mossad head stated that Israel's intelligence agency will thwart any attempts by Tehran to possess nuclear weapons.
"Iran will not have nuclear weapons – not in the coming years, not ever. This is my personal commitment: This is the Mossad’s commitment," Barnea said.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog made a similar statement during a ceremony to accept US Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides' credentials, stating Israel will act on its own if the international community fails to foil Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"If the international community does not take a vigorous stance on this issue—Israel will do so. Israel will protect itself," Herzog said.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
土耳其是否假裝希望再次與以色列和解？- 分析
這個一年一度的周期往往是霧裡看花，通常是由土耳其動員的旨在孤立和破壞以色列的竊竊私語運動傳播的。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 15:05
更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 5 日 17:38
土耳其總統塔伊普·埃爾多安於 2020 年 12 月 14 日在土耳其安卡拉舉行內閣會議後的新聞發布會上發表講話
（圖片來源：總統新聞辦公室/通過路透社的講義）
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過去幾週，以色列媒體表示土以關係可能會改善。根據眾多報導，土耳其正計劃採取措施改善關係，甚至可能將修復關係與土耳其和阿拉伯聯合酋長國最近的和解聯繫起來。
所有這些報導的問題在於，它們主要基於安卡拉的含糊評論以及關於以色列和土耳其和解的年度故事循環。這個一年一度的周期往往是霧裡看花，通常是通過土耳其動員的一場旨在孤立和破壞以色列的竊竊私語運動來傳播的，其幌子是讓以色列破壞其夥伴關係或乞求土耳其建立新的友誼。
讓我們來看看最近一輪的和解敘述。它始於土耳其拘留了一對以色列夫婦，他們是受到極端間諜指控威脅的無辜遊客。
奇怪的是，出現的故事是土耳其領導人進行了乾預，讓這對夫婦獲釋，這表明土耳其已準備好改善關係。但首先拘留這對夫婦的是土耳其的領導層。這聽起來更像是黑手黨的和解，而不是溫暖的紐帶。一個國家不會為了建立更好的關係而拘留另一個國家的公民。
與此同時，11 月 23 日有報導稱，以色列呼籲安卡拉關閉哈馬斯在土耳其的辦事處。土耳其長期以來一直接待哈馬斯，並為哈馬斯恐怖分子舉辦紅地毯招待會。事實上，除了伊朗，哈馬斯似乎得到了安卡拉最崇拜的支持。
2012 年 1 月 3 日，土耳其總理雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安（右）和哈馬斯的加沙領導人伊斯梅爾·哈尼亞在安卡拉土耳其議會的一次會議上握手（圖片來源：STRINGER/REUTERS）
土耳其與哈馬斯的關係是一個大問題，這已經不是什麼秘密了。多年來的各種報導都表明，哈馬斯計劃從土耳其發動恐怖襲擊，甚至可能策劃網絡攻擊，哈馬斯成員利用土耳其過境到其他地方。
據阿拉伯新聞報導，2021 年 1 月，有報導稱土耳其為哈馬斯提供的歡迎墊阻礙了正常化。
值得簡要回顧一下我們是如何到達這裡的。自 20 年前極右翼 AKP 政黨在土耳其上台以來，土以關係變得越來越糟糕。領導人雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安 (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) 經常是世界上最反以色列的領導人之一。多年來，發生了多起事件，包括以色列駐安卡拉大使被召回、外交官騷擾、甚至遊客騷擾等事件。
土耳其政府發表聲明稱，他們將聖索菲亞大教堂重新奉獻為清真寺，與阿克薩清真寺相提並論後，他們將從以色列“解放”耶路撒冷。
在 2009 年加沙戰爭和 2010 年加沙艦隊突襲之後，以土關係惡化。馬爾馬拉號是一艘載滿數百名極右翼活動人士的大船。
以色列突襲了這艘船，以阻止它進入加沙。土耳其公民襲擊以色列士兵並被打死。然而，多年後，有人試圖和解。但總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡不願意乞求土耳其建立更好的關係，而這是安卡拉想要的乞求。
這讓關係處於冷漠之中。特朗普政府和特朗普與埃爾多安的關係以及在華盛頓活躍的土耳其遊說使土耳其變得更加極端。
土耳其不僅在特朗普時代對以色列更加敵視，而且開始威脅希臘和攻擊庫爾德人，散佈反猶陰謀。土耳其越來越接近俄羅斯和伊朗。但土耳其時不時會冒出可能與以色列和解的想法。
每當土耳其感覺到以色列處於外交成功的​​邊緣時，和解的敘述通常就會浮出水面。
儘管土耳其領導人在 2019 年 9 月將以色列與納粹德國進行了比較，但在 2019 年 12 月，土耳其開始擔心以色列-希臘-塞浦路斯在這些東地中海國家之間的管道協議中加強關係。
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它試圖假裝它想要和解，即使它在 2019 年和 2020 年接待了哈馬斯。 2020 年 5 月，土耳其鼓勵聲稱它在敘利亞北部與真主黨發生衝突，以使安卡拉和耶路撒冷似乎站在同一邊對抗伊朗。
當埃及、阿聯酋、法國、希臘和塞浦路斯在 2020 年春天譴責土耳其時，土耳其明白它變得越來越孤立。特朗普在 11 月的選舉中失敗後，安卡拉知道它在白宮不再有朋友，並開始再次推動“和解”的故事。
這些似乎與安卡拉聲明的現實背道而馳，因為土耳其曾威脅說，如果阿聯酋與以色列和解，土耳其將減少與阿聯酋的關係，就像阿聯酋在 2020 年 9 月所做的那樣。這意味著安卡拉在試圖孤立以色列的同時，正在談論和解來自海灣、埃及和希臘的合作夥伴。2021 年 3 月，土耳其甚至向以色列媒體提供了有關以色列和土耳其之間“海上邊界”的報導，這條假想的邊界將使塞浦路斯人在地中海的權利不可見。當時土耳其傳播的地圖和宣傳旨在打著“和解”的幌子損害以色列與塞浦路斯的關係。
這讓我們回到最近的故事。土耳其從談論新關係中獲得了什麼好處。敘述的問題在於，沒有證據表明安卡拉想要更好的關係或願意做任何有利於以色列的事情。埃爾多安在 11 月下旬的飛機上對土耳其記者說：“正如我們和阿拉伯聯合酋長國之間邁出了一步，我們將與其他國家採取類似的步驟。” 但在這種情況下，安卡拉甚至沒有提到“以色列”。它不能讓自己說出以色列這個詞。因此，它想要“和解”而不實際做任何事情。
像往常一樣，它希望以色列做任何事情，而以色列則乞求土耳其建立更好的關係。它希望以色列更加孤立，並損害以色列與希臘、塞浦路斯和其他國家的關係。
完全有可能的是，由於經濟支離破碎且里拉貶值，安卡拉一直在與阿聯酋和其他國家接觸，認為其過去十年的激進立場並沒有幫助安卡拉。
然而，問題始終是安卡拉是否每六個月就提出這些想法以獲得一些東西，而很少給予任何回報。
最近的一系列謠言是由安卡拉拘留以色列遊客引起的。想要建立更好關係的國家不會以虛假指控拘留遊客。安卡拉的媒體很少提及與以色列的更好關係。似乎由於土耳其的大多數媒體都與執政黨有聯繫或由執政黨經營，如果認真發表關於以色列的正面文章，它不僅會助長以色列媒體關於“和解”的神話。
Is Turkey pretending it wants reconciliation with Israel again? - analysis
This annual cycle often tends to be smoke and mirrors, usually spread by a whispering campaign mobilized by Turkey that is designed to isolate and undermine Israel.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Published: DECEMBER 5, 2021 15:05
Updated: DECEMBER 5, 2021 17:38
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a news conference following a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Turkey, December 14, 2020
(photo credit: PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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Israeli media over the last weeks have indicated that Turkey-Israel relations might improve. According to numerous reports Turkey is planning steps to improve relations, or might even be tying the mending of relations to a recent reconciliation between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
The problem with all these reports is they are based largely on vague comments in Ankara and an annual cycle of stories about Israel and Turkey reconciling. This annual cycle often tends to be smoke and mirrors, usually spread by a whispering campaign mobilized by Turkey that is designed to isolate and undermine Israel, under the guise of getting Israel to sabotage its partnerships or beg Turkey for new friendship.
Let’s look at the recent round of reconciliation narratives. It began when Turkey detained an Israeli couple, innocent tourists who were threatened with extreme charges of espionage.
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Oddly the story that emerged was that Turkey’s leader had intervened to have the couple freed and that this indicated Turkey was ready to improve ties. But it was Turkey’s leadership that had detained the couple in the first place. This sounds more like mafia reconciliation than warm ties. A country doesn’t detain citizens of another country to get better ties.
Meanwhile, on November 23 reports emerged that Israel had called on Ankara to close Hamas offices in Turkey. Turkey has long hosted Hamas and given red carpet receptions to Hamas terrorists. In fact, with the exception of Iran, it appears Hamas gets the most adoring support from Ankara.
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Hamas' Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh shake hands during a meeting at the Turkish parliament in Ankara January 3, 2012 (credit: STRINGER/ REUTERS)
It’s not a secret that Turkey’s ties to Hamas are a huge problem. Various reports over the years have indicated that Hamas plans terror attacks from Turkey, that it may even plan cyber attacks and that Hamas members use Turkey to transit to other places.
In January 2021 reports said that Turkey’s welcome mat for Hamas was hindering normalization, according to Arab News.
It’s worth looking back briefly at how we got here. Turkey-Israel ties have gotten increasingly worse since the far-right AKP party came to power in Turkey almost two decades ago. Leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has often been one of the most anti-Israel leaders in the world. Over the years there have been many incidents, including Israel’s ambassador being recalled from Ankara, and diplomats harassed, even tourists harassed and other incidents.
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Turkey’s government has put out statements saying they will “liberate” Jerusalem from Israel, after having reconsecrated Hagia Sophia as a mosque, drawing parallels with Al-Aqsa mosque.
Israel-Turkey relations grew worse after the 2009 Gaza war and the Gaza flotilla raid in 2010. The
Mavi Marmara was a large ship full of hundreds of far-right activists.
Israel raided the ship to prevent it getting to Gaza. Turkish citizens attacked Israeli soldiers and were killed. However, years later, there were attempts at reconciliation. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not willing to beg Turkey for better ties, and it was begging that Ankara wanted.
This left relations in the cold. Turkey was empowered by the Trump administration and Trump-Erdogan ties, as well as an active Turkish lobby in Washington, to become more extreme.
Turkey not only became more hostile to Israel during the Trump era, but began to threaten Greece and attack Kurds and spread antisemitic conspiracies. Turkey grew closer to Russia and Iran. But from time to time Turkey would float the idea that it might reconcile with Israel.
The reconciliation narrative was generally floated whenever Turkey sensed that Israel was on the verge of diplomatic success.
Even though Turkey’s leader compared Israel to Nazi Germany in September 2019, in December 2019 Turkey became concerned about Israel-Greece-Cyprus intensifying relations amid a pipeline deal between these eastern Mediterranean countries.
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It sought to pretend it wanted reconciliation, even as it hosted Hamas in 2019 and 2020. In May 2020 Turkey encouraged claims that it had clashed with Hezbollah in northern Syria to make it seem that Ankara and Jerusalem are on the same side against Iran.
When Egypt, the UAE, France, Greece and Cyprus condemned Turkey in the spring of 2020, Turkey understood it was growing more isolated. After Trump lost the November elections Ankara knew it no longer had a friend in the White House and began pushing stories of “reconciliation” again.
These seemed to run counter to the reality of Ankara’s statements because Turkey had threatened to reduce ties with the UAE if the UAE made peace with Israel, as the UAE did in September 2020. This means that Ankara was talking up reconciliation while trying to isolate Israel from partners in the Gulf, Egypt and Greece. In March 2021 Turkey even fed Israeli media stories of a “maritime border” between Israel and Turkey, an imaginary border that would make Cypriot rights in the Mediterranean invisible. The maps and propaganda spread by Turkey at that time were designed to harm Israel-Cyprus ties under the guise of “reconciliation.”
This brings us to the recent stories. What does Turkey gain and benefit from talking up new ties. The problem with the narrative is there is no evidence Ankara wants better ties or is willing to do anything in which Israel benefits. “Just as a step was taken between us and the United Arab Emirates, we will take similar steps with the others,” Erdogan told Turkish reporters on board a plane in late November. But Ankara didn’t even mention “Israel” in this context. It can’t bring itself to say the word Israel. It thus wants “reconciliation” without actually doing anything.
As usual it wants Israel to be the one doing everything, and Israel to be begging Turkey for better ties. It wants Israel more isolated and to harm Israel ties to Greece, Cyprus and others.
It’s entirely plausible that Ankara, with an economy in tatters and declining lira, has been reaching out to the UAE and others with a sense that its aggressive stance over the last decade has not helped Ankara.
However, the question is always whether Ankara floats these ideas every six months to get something while rarely giving anything in return.
This recent set of rumors was set in motion by Ankara detaining Israeli tourists. Countries that want better ties don’t detain tourists on false charges. Ankara’s media rarely mentions better Israel ties. It seems that since most media in Turkey are linked to or run by the ruling party, it would, if serious run positive articles about Israel, not just feed Israeli media myths about “reconciliation.”
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