Secret Market Stats

Seattle Real Estate Investing & Real Estate Financial Planning™ Podcast

Having a solid understanding of historical market stats is important for investing in real estate in Seattle.

This class is Module 2 of 46 in a series called Real Estate Investing Secrets.

Topics covered in this module include:

• Should you try to “time the market” using data to increase profitability?
• How much are properties selling for? Do property values always go up? How much have properties gone up per year since 1965? What would your annual ROI be on a property using that appreciation rate if you put 20% down as an investor or 5% down as a Nomad™ or house hacker?
• If we adjust for inflation, how much have properties goes up in value per year? Why is this not a truly apples to apples comparison and what can we do about it?
• What would a typical owner-occupant primary residence rent for? How has that changed since 1975? What is the rent equivalent appreciation rate over that period? And, why is that not a fair and valid comparison?
• What’s one measure of housing affordability? And, does it prove houses are less affordable today than they were between now and 1980?
• What are new construction properties selling for? How has that changed since 1960?
• How many new single-family homes are for sale in the US now and going back to 1960? How many have sold? What can we determine from this?
• What’s a stat that combines both the supply of properties for sale and the demand for properties into one powerful single number? How do we interpret that stat? How has it changed between 1960 and now?
• How many properties are occupied by owner-occupants? How many by rents? How has this number changed between now and 2000?
• What percentage of properties are vacant and for sale? What percentage are vacant and for rent? How has this number changed between 1960 and today? How does this relate to your estimated vacancy rate on my personal rental properties?
• What have 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rates done between 1960 and today? How does that impact you as investor today? Why is this a perfect example of desirably asymetric risk and how to utilize it as a real estate investor?
• What have typical mortgage origination fees and discount points been since 1960 through recent times? How does this directly impact you as a real estate investor today?
• What percentage of households in the US are homeowners? How has that changed since 1960 through today? What does that mean for us as real estate investor landlords?
• What is the median household income in the US—adjusted for inflation? And, how has that changed since 1980?
• What percentage of household disposable income is spent on debt service and, separately, how much is spent on mortgage debt? How to think about this? How does this strongly play into favor for real estate investors that hold properties and mortgages for long periods of time?
• How much equity do US households have? What percentage of property do they have as equity and how has that changed since the 1950s. Can we see as our nation’s philosophy on housing debt has changed over the last 70+ years? What is our current position on property equity?
• How have home prices changed (adjusting for inflation and not)? How often have property values declined year-over-year? How frequently—and by how much—have property values increased? What lessons can we—as real estate investors—take away from that to help us make better decisions?
• A discussion of a great chart by John Wake showing how the amount you can borrow while keeping a $1,000 per month mortgage payment changes with interest rates over time.
• How does the cash price, the inflation adjusted cash price and the monthly mortgage payment price of a property compare to a property in 1990 for all months through 2024? What lessons—as real estate investors—can we draw from this to make better investment decisions?
• How has per capita (per person) personal income in the US changed from 1990 through 2022?
• How many single family homes and apartments (5+ units) have we been completing each month since the mid 1960s through today? Why might this be a really good early signal depending on your desired real estate investing strategy?
• How many houses are completed by region of the US?
• What is a great way to measure how swiftly a real estate market is moving? What’s normal? What do we see every year? What do we see over time?
• How many times is a typical house marketed for sale shown? How has that changed over time? What are we seeing now?
• How have rents been changing? What is normal? What are we seeing lately? How does rent impact cash flow and why is this to our significant advantage as real estate investors?
• Plus much more...

Check out the video and additional resources related to Secret Market Stats.

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