The Trouble with Tariffs

Notes on the Week Ahead

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محتوای ارائه شده توسط Dr. David Kelly. تمام محتوای پادکست شامل قسمت‌ها، گرافیک‌ها و توضیحات پادکست مستقیماً توسط Dr. David Kelly یا شریک پلتفرم پادکست آن‌ها آپلود و ارائه می‌شوند. اگر فکر می‌کنید شخصی بدون اجازه شما از اثر دارای حق نسخه‌برداری شما استفاده می‌کند، می‌توانید روندی که در اینجا شرح داده شده است را دنبال کنید.https://fa.player.fm/legal

Biscuits & Jam

1
Encore: Jessica B. Harris Believes in a Welcome Table 42:14

19 روز پیش42:14

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دوست داشته شد

42:14

Episode Description: Jessica B. Harris may have been born and raised in New York City, but she has Tennessee roots through her father and has spent much of her life split between homes in the Northeast and the South – specifically New Orleans. For more than fifty years, she has been a college professor, a writer, and a lecturer, and her many books have earned her a reputation as an authority on food of the African Diaspora, as well as a lifetime achievement award from the James Beard Foundation. A few years back, Netflix adapted her book, High on the Hog: A Culinary Journey from Africa to America , into a 4 part docuseries. And I’m very proud to say that she’s a longtime contributor to Southern Living with a regular column called The Welcome Table. This episode was recorded in the Southern Living Birmingham studios, and Sid and Jessica talked about her mother’s signature mac and cheese, the cast-iron skillet she’d be sure to save if ever her house were on fire, and her dear friend, the late New Orleans chef Leah Chase. For more info visit: southernliving.com/biscuitsandjam Biscuits & Jam is produced by : Sid Evans - Editor-in-Chief, Southern Living Krissy Tiglias - GM, Southern Living Lottie Leymarie - Executive Producer Michael Onufrak - Audio Engineer/Producer Jeremiah McVay - Producer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices…

حدود یک سال پیش 5:45

MP3•خانه قسمت

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs.

It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have a hard time in clearly explaining the trouble with tariffs. And since tariffs are likely to be a big issue this week, with the president promising to impose postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a new, second 10% tariff on China as of March 4th, it seems like a good time to review the problem.

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#Morgan #Chase #Money #Finance #Investing #Mutual #Morningstar #Gatch #Double #Dip #David #Kelly #George #Trading #Business #Dr David Kelly #Marketing #Insight #Funding #Recess

The Trouble with Tariffs

Notes on the Week Ahead

209 subscribers

published حدود یک سال پیش

اشتراک گذاری

MP3•خانه قسمت

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs.

382 قسمت

#Morgan #Chase #Money #Finance #Investing #Mutual #Morningstar #Gatch #Double #Dip #David #Kelly #George #Trading #Business #Dr David Kelly #Marketing #Insight #Funding #Recess

همه قسمت ها

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Economic Sogginess and the Market Party 10:30

۶ روز پیش10:30

10:30

When we bought our first home, the builder neglected to mention that it was built upon a river. Of course a river at the bottom of a garden is a charming sight. Something that seeps up through the cellar is less attractive, and so, in due course, the builder was called back to install a sump pump. Our young sons were fascinated by the hole in the basement floor and the coppery water that flowed at the bottom and wondered whether, with the help of makeshift fishing poles, it could yield some fish.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Macro Jigsaw 12:49

13 روز پیش12:49

12:49

When I was growing up, school holidays weren’t packed with organized activities. Sometimes, to relieve the boredom of a rainy day, I would tackle a jigsaw – I remember one particularly challenging 1000-piece puzzle which, when completed, promised to reveal a charming picture of Dutch skaters on a frozen lake.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update 13:58

27 روز پیش13:58

13:58

This week, after a very busy few months, I am putting down my pen, picking up my metaphorical spade and bucket and taking some vacation time. 2025, so far, has been a challenging year for analysts and it is tempting, as I’m trying to clear my desk, to assert that not much has changed over the past few weeks and so I don’t need to update any analysis of federal government policy, the economy and markets. However, the reality is that events in Washington and on Wall Street over just the last two weeks do require a reassessment.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
A Softer Sort of Slowdown 11:17

۶ weeks پیش11:17

11:17

There have only been two U.S. recessions since 2001 – the Great Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession. Both of these were huge – accounting for two of the only three times since the 1940s that the unemployment rate has vaulted to double digits. However, because the recessions of our recent memory have been so dramatic, investors may not appreciate the risks from a softer sort of slowdown.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Tracking the Economic Slowdown 9:51

۷ weeks پیش9:51

9:51

A crowd is gathered around the sickbed of the economic expansion. Among the multitude are the workers, consumers and business people who would be most impacted by its demise. There are political partisans too, some fervently praying for recovery, others quietly hoping for the opposite. At the foot of the bed are fiscal and monetary doctors, the former preparing a sugary solution to inject into the patient and the latter casting nervous eyes both on the patient and the fiscal doctors, concerned about a renewal of inflationary fever. Foreign governments and central bankers also stand vigil, from as safe a distance as they can manage, conscious of the infectious nature of the patient’s disease. And close by the door are investors, contemplating a quick exit from American assets but haunted by the memory of the many past remarkable American recoveries. There is a knock at the door. It is the last week in April and a battery of tests are in that should shed further light on the delicate health of the economic expansion.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism 10:06

۸ weeks پیش10:06

10:06

Last weekend, I neglected to finish my Notes on the Week Ahead as I got caught up in watching the Masters. In truth, it was mostly a battle between Rory McIlroy’s emotions, which produced two double-bogeys in his final round, and his exceptional skill, which propelled his second playoff shot to within three feet of the hole. I was particularly happy to see his victory since he hails from the same island as myself, But I was also glad to see him win because, at 35, he is no longer in the first blush of youth. It is a sad truth that in athletics, as in life, no-one soars forever. Twenty years from now, McIlroy will probably still be a fine golfer – training and resilience should see to that. But he may no longer be exceptional.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy 11:41

10 weeks پیش11:41

11:41

One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos, following the President’s tariff announcement, is different from previous market slumps. Every market selloff is. However, a common thread in all crises is that the best decisions begin with a structured approach to analysis.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Fiscal Fudge 7:35

12 weeks پیش7:35

7:35

I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go with “cooking”. My experiments included making fudge and my mother dutifully supplied me with sugar, vanilla and helpful advice. However, we possessed no candy thermometer and, as anyone in the fudge-making business will tell you, getting the temperature right is essential. Too hot and you end up with toffee or hard caramel. Too cold and you end up with a grim sludge, which no degree of refrigeration can render palatable. Making fudge is a delicate operation.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Wait and See Economy 12:08

13 weeks پیش12:08

12:08

I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures at dawn as they wander aimlessly in the middle of the road. When a car or truck bears down on them, they stop and stare. Perhaps they are pondering whether it would be more fun to hop into the woods to their right or gambol off into the field to their left. But, of course, the only important decision is to get out of the road. A “wait and see” attitude could be fatal.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Trouble with Tariffs 5:45

15 weeks پیش5:45

5:45

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs. It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have a hard time in clearly explaining the trouble with tariffs. And since tariffs are likely to be a big issue this week, with the president promising to impose postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a new, second 10% tariff on China as of March 4th, it seems like a good time to review the problem.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth 8:11

16 weeks پیش8:11

8:11

In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001[1]. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing population growth. However, the reality is that the gap between births and deaths is continuing to shrink, with almost all of our recent population growth coming from immigration. Going forward, if immigration is dramatically curtailed, overall population growth could turn negative by the middle of the next decade while the working-age population would immediately start to contract. [1] See Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades , U.S. Census Press Release, December 19th, 2024.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty 12:14

17 weeks پیش12:14

12:14

In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic change across the full reach of the federal government. While these policy moves have broad political, geopolitical and social implications, for investors, the most important concern tariffs, immigration, the federal workforce and the federal budget. The rapid pace of these moves, along with frequent reversals, court challenges and mixed signals on future policy actions, make it difficult for economists to assess their cumulative effects. Also important, and even harder to analyze, is the potential for policy uncertainty to delay business decisions. Much has been said about the potential for the new administration’s policies to add to inflation pressures. However, investors should also consider how these actions, and the uncertainty surrounding them, could slow economic growth.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train 11:35

18 weeks پیش11:35

11:35

For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly advertising only a modest pace when it gets under way. Such has been the case for the European economy and, even more so, for European equities for many years. This has, of course, been deeply frustrating for those investing in European stocks, which, while often producing OK returns, have underperformed U.S. stocks in 12 of the last 15 years.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Investment Implications of the Trade War 6:51

19 weeks پیش6:51

6:51

On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic activity across all four countries. While the end game of this trade war remains very uncertain, it has the potential to impact bonds, stocks and exchange rates. For investors, regardless of the early market reaction, the reality of a trade war suggest the need for broad diversification including allocations to real assets and international assets.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing 10:10

20 weeks پیش10:10

10:10

This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations and memoranda that have emanated from the White House in the first week of the President’s new term. However, the Fed’s statement and Jay Powell’s press conference could well be of equal importance to financial markets.…

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