The next 20 years globally after the fall of Kabul

Mid-Atlantic - conversations about US, UK and world politics

2021 will prove a tipping point moment in international politics. In recent decades, globalization has created opportunities, reduced poverty, and supported peace for billions of people. But with China and the US decoupling on technology, the 21st-century economy is now breaking in two.

Geopolitics

Migration and refugees

Climate change

Developed world countries have become toxically polarized. Climate change matters as never before.

1. political uncertainty in institutions

In 2020, US political institutions will be tested as never before, and the November election will produce a result many see as illegitimate. Poland and Hungary in the EU.

3. US/China

As this decoupling occurs, US-China tensions will provoke a more explicit clash over national security, influence, and values. The two sides will continue to use economic tools in this struggle—sanctions, export controls, and boycotts—with shorter fuses and goals that are more explicitly political.

5. India rising, India tensions with China

Beginning on 5 May 2020, Chinese and Indian troops engaged in aggressive melee, face-offs and skirmishes at locations along the Sino-Indian border.

In 2019, Prime Minister Modi and his government revoked the special status for Jammu and Kashmir, piloted a plan that stripped 1.9 million people of their citizenship, and passed an immigration law that considers religious affiliation.

6. Geopolitical Europe

European officials now believe the EU should defend itself more aggressively against competing economic and political models.

7. Politics vs. Economics of Climate Change

Climate change will put governments, investors, and society at large on a collision course with corporate decision-makers, who must choose between ambitious commitments to reduce their emissions and their bottom lines.

8. Shia Crescendo, the defeat in Afghanistan

The failure of U.S. policy toward Iran, Iraq, and Syria—the major Shia-led nations in the Middle East—creates significant risks for regional stability. MBS in Saudi Arabia

9. Discontent in Latin America

Latin American societies have become increasingly polarized in recent years. In 2020, public anger over sluggish growth, corruption, and low-quality public services will keep the risk of political instability high. Bolsanrno anti-establishment politicians will grow stronger, and election outcomes will be less predictable.

10. Africa

With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African continent and its resources. However, until recently only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.

With a steadily growing population heading towards 2bn, Africa’s 1.1bn workforce will be the world’s largest by 2040. Equally, with a collective GDP of $2.6 trillion by 2020 and $1.4 trillion of consumer spending, many see the impact of around 500m new middle class consumers. Africa as a continent has, on average, grown its economy by at 5% per annum over the last decade. It is already as urbanized as China and has as many cities of over 1m populations as Europe.

As global economic power continues to shift away from advanced economies to emerging economies, Nigeria's economy is projected to rank among the world's top ten economies by 2050 with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $6.4 trillion.

Migrants - Worldwide, there is an estimated 191 million immigrants;

1. As the Venezuelan Crisis Digs In, International Community Pledges to Step Up

2. Syria and Iraq Experience New Waves of Displacement

3. Using Aid and Trade Threats as Leverage, United States Pushes Through Controversial Migration Management Deals

4. Violence against Immigrant and Minority Communities Erupts Amid Rising Xenophobic, Anti-Migrant Discourse everywhere

6. Countries Push Borders Outward, Preventing Migrants from Reaching Hoped-For DestinationsWe

8. Far-Right Populists See Reversals, Some Gains in 2019

10. Amid Fears of Provoking Backlash, Governments Move Slowly and Softly on Global Compact for Migration Implementation

Worldwide, there are an estimated 191 million immigrants; 115 million immigrants live in developed countries;

20% (approximately 38 million) live in the US alone, making up 13% of its population;

33% of all immigrants live in Europe;

75% live in just 28 countries;

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