FEBRUARY 2023

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore and decipher the February Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted February 15-16 among 1,838 registered voters. ​

BIDEN HASN’T RECEIVED A BUMP FROM THE STATE OF THE UNION

• Biden’s State of the Union was received in a partisan manner: voters were split 50-50 on whether they found the speech favorable, and his approval rating remains at 42%.
• 35% of voters said they did not watch any of the speech.
• On Biden’s back-and-forth with Republicans on entitlements: 56% of voters believe Republican members of Congress are trying to cut Social Security and Medicare.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT SPENDING CURBS INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM

• Most voters continue to side with the Republicans on the looming debt ceiling fight: 62% want Congress to raise the limit only with spending constraints, and 63% think Democrats should negotiate.
• Voters acknowledge Medicare and Social Security can’t continue without change: 57% think Medicare and Social Security do need reforms to remain solvent.

NIKKI HALEY GETS SOME MOMENTUM

• Nikki Haley rises after her presidential campaign announcement although most voters are still not familiar with her: among GOP voters she rose to third place in a potential GOP primary that does not feature Trump.
• Ron DeSantis is slipping slightly: among GOP voters he dropped 10 points in a potential GOP primary without Trump although he is still the frontrunner.
• The GOP field is open: only 54% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the GOP primary if he runs.

AMERICANS ARE CHINA HAWKS

• The shot-down surveillance balloon is a major concern to Americans: 66% of voters think it represented a challenge to US sovereignty by China.
• Americans thought Biden did too little in response: 63% think the Biden administration acted too slowly in shooting down the balloon.
• Americans also want more answers on the balloon and subsequent shot-down aerial objects: 82% support Congress investigating, and 75% want Biden to disclose what the administration knows.
• Americans are concerned about China’s aggression in other areas: 69% of voters think China is planning to invade Taiwan in the next 3 years.

AMERICANS DOUBT BIDEN ON FOREIGN POLICY ACROSS THE WORLD

• Biden’s foreign policy approval is low: 40% of voters think Biden has not done a good job on foreign policy including Afghanistan, Ukraine, and China – compared to 27% who think he has done a good job.
• 56% of voters think Biden is not up to handling challenges from China, Russia, and Iran.

AMERICANS STILL SUPPORT BIG TECH BUT ARE SUSPICIOUS OF TIKTOK

• 60-70% of voters do not want Big Tech companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, or Microsoft) to be broken up.
• TikTok faces more suspicion: 59% of voters think TikTok spies on its US users.
• Voters are split on a full TikTok ban: 46% think TikTok should be allowed to operate in the US only if the app undergoes regular security reviews of its code base; 42% support a total ban.
• The FTC is seen as partisan: 48% of voters think it acts as a Democratic agency.