Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility

Forward Guidance

Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) U.S. Economy Appears Resilient

(03:16) Financial Conditions And Neutral Rate

(08:)54 Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (QE & QT)

(13:32) The Reaction Function Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Has Changed

(17:44) VanEck Ad

(18:28) Interpreting Ongoing Yield Curve Inversion

(20:24) Patrick's Work At Swiss Re

(23:24) Inflation Volatility

(33:47) Currencies

(35:46) European Economy

(38:32) Two Consecutive Quarters Of No Growth Does Not Necessarily Indicate A Recession

(40:55) Most Common Error In Macro: Mistaking Correlation For Causation

(43:16) Soft Landing Is Patrick's Base Case

(45:49) Patrick's Prior Work At Swiss National Bank

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.