“Nightmare Scenario” For The Fed | Felix Jauvin

Forward Guidance

Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto.

Filmed on December 20, 2022.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:29) Liquidity In 2023

(15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA)

(20:59) What's Going To Break?

(30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed

(34:16) Pivot And Yield Curve Control

(37:07) Views On Inflation

(43:57) Commodities Outlook

(48:57) Equities

(56:03) Crypto

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.