Neil Dutta: Why There Was No Recession In 2023

Forward Guidance

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Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it has indicated, a “soft landing” is very achievable. However, Dutta notes that if the Fed does not cut and interest rates remain restrictive, his outlook may change throughout the year. Filmed on January 19, 2022.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:25) Why The Much-Anticipated Recession of 2023 Never Arrived

(03:53) How "Leading Indicators" Were Giving False Recession Signals

(06:32) Why The Leading Indicators Were Wrong

(11:18) You Typically Don't See A Recession When Real Incomes Are Rising

(13:19) Setting The Record Straight On "Excess Savings" Narrative

(16:30) VanEck Ad

(20:13) The Fed and Interest Rates

(22:55) Long Lags = Nonsense?

(26:21) Neil Dutta's Economic Outlook: Real Incomes Will Continue To Grow Into Summer 2024

(27:00) Inflation Is Falling By A Lot More Than People Think

(28:33) The Bond Market Has Been Dead Wrong This Cycle

(31:08) Credit Conditions And The Banking System

(34:11) Delinquencies

(35:49) The Labor Market Is Strong But Cooling

(40:54) If Fed Doesn't Cut, That Would Be A Tightening Of Financial Conditions That Could Slow Economy

(42:12) Views On Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors

(45:00) China

(46:29) Election Risk For The Bond Market

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.