Jacob Shapiro on Russia, Ukraine, and China

Forward Guidance

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Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and

geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russia’s war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he explains how the war is impacting global supply chains, commodity prices, and international relations. Jacob also shares with Jack his take on China’s economy, which is at a crossroads between a slow-motion train wreck of its collapsing real estate sector, and the reflationary tailwinds from the end of its zero-Covid policy. Filmed on January 10, 2022.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:43) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

(06:07) Economic Consequences of The War

(13:35) China and India Are Buying Russian Oil In Bulk

(15:42) European Price Cap On Russian Oil

(19:47) Who Are Russia's Allies?

(22:52) How Might This War End?

(31:33) Permissionless Plug

(32:33) China

(35:34) Will Liquidity Be Restored In China?

(49:00) Taiwan & Semiconductors

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.