E107 Scenario Planning for China & Asia, Silicon Valley & China

Fireside with a VC

E107 In this episode of Fireside with a VC, we discuss scenario planning for China & Asia and the relationship with Silicon Valley. We explore future opportunities with Francis Bassolino, Managing Director of Alaris Consulting, who has been helping companies of all sizes enter, succeed, and exit China over a span of 30+ years. Francis is also an adjunct professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in Shanghai and Chicago. Having lived in Shanghai for over 21 years and in China since 1988, he brings extensive insights into the region.

We delve into the history of what has happened and the opening of China up to today. We also look at different scenarios such as an invasion of Taiwan, a blockade of Taiwan, no invasion or blockade, China with no reforms, with reforms, and the potential for a return to high growth in China. We examine how these different scenarios will impact the greater Asia region and the West.

Our discussion includes the relationship between China and Russia, particularly days before Russia invaded Ukraine when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced their partnership has “no limits” and vowed to deepen cooperation on various fronts, including the Russia-Ukraine war. We talk about the bargain between the Chinese people happily giving up civil liberties for a prosperous life and 10% growth consistently over decades.

We also cover the impact of recent oppressive COVID-19 lockdowns, the period of low growth, the lack of job opportunities for the youth, and the generation of young Chinese not getting married, having children, or working in post-Jack Ma China. Is the Chinese economy in a freefall now?

Furthermore, we discuss the evolving relationship between Silicon Valley and China, what it might look like in the future, and different scenarios and opportunities for Western companies to grow revenues and lower costs with the Chinese partnership.

Links and Resources:

• Learn more about Francis Bassolino and Alaris Consulting at www.alarisconsultinggroup.com.
• Connect with Francis Bassolino: [e-mail].
• Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ddjmtok1OZg.
• Find all episodes of Fireside with a VC on your favorite podcast platform: Spotify.
• Follow Andrew Romans on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/romans/.
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