Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 17 Saturday Tripleheader

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LAC @ NE | DEN @ CIN | ARI @ LAR

Saturday Tripleheader

1:00 PM ET Game

L.A. Chargers @ New England

Team Totals: Chargers 23, Patriots 19

The Chargers visit Foxboro with Justin Herbert having finished below 18 standard-league fantasy points in four of his last five starts and L.A.’s rushing attack positioned for success with Gus Edwards coming off his season-best game, J.K. Dobbins (knee) potentially set to play for the first time since Week 12, and New England missing star DT Christian Barmore (reserve/NFI, blood clots). Over the past two weeks, Cardinals and Bills RBs clocked the Pats for a combined 47/289/3 (6.1 YPC) rushing line. I’m not sure how L.A.’s backfield will shake out in terms of touch distribution — especially if Dobbins returns — but the Bolts are set up for run-game efficiency here. I’m anticipating a limited-volume game for Herbert.

Another running-game plus for Los Angeles is the likely return of stud blocking TE Will Dissly, who missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Dissly coming back would also delete Stone Smartt’s fantasy relevance. … A rock-solid WR2, Ladd McConkey was fantasy’s WR17 in PPR points per game in Weeks 11-16. Since McConkey runs nearly 70% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez on the vast majority of Saturday’s pass plays. … Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer rounded out Los Angeles’ three-receiver sets in Week 16’s win over Denver. They are likelier candidates for Gonzalez’s coverage in a game where the Chargers figure to feature their rushing attack.

Drake Maye hasn’t hit 20 standard-league fantasy points since Week 7. The Chargers are yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest QB rating (86.9) while ranking No. 7 in sacks (42). Already beleaguered on the offensive line, the Pats may be without C Ben Brown (concussion). I’m approaching Maye as a two-quarterback-league starter but low-end streamer option. … Rhamondre Stevenson committed his NFL-high seventh fumble of the year in Week 16’s loss to Buffalo and should have been charged with his eighth, only for scorekeepers to attribute it to Maye. Afterwards, HC Jerod Mayo suggested Stevenson’s ball insecurity could cost him his starting job in favor of Antonio Gibson. The Chargers have permitted the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

The Patriots ran a finite three-receiver package of Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, and Pop Douglas in Week 16’s defeat with Boutte leading the way in snaps (88%), targets (7), and production (5/95/1). No New England wideout has proven box-score trustworthy over the course of the year, but these three are playable on Saturday-only three-game slates. … This is a #RevengeGame for Hunter Henry against the team that drafted him. The Bolts have coughed up the NFL’s 11th-most catches to tight ends (80). … Austin Hooper is worth a look in Saturday-only DFS averaging 48.8 receiving yards over the Pats’ last six games.

Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 20

4:30 PM ET Game

Denver @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 26.5, Broncos 23

This is a premium spot for Denver’s offense facing a Bengals team surrendering the NFL’s fifth-most points (26.2 PPG) while missing starting DLs Sam Hubbard (knee) and Sheldon Rankins (illness) plus MLB Logan Wilson (knee, I.R.). Still fantasy’s overall QB9 on the year, Bo Nix is a confident QB1 at Cincinnati in Week 17’s second-highest-totaled game. … The Broncos’ backfield remains a mess with HC Sean Payton saying one-dimensional rookie Audric Estime has earned more opportunities, Javonte Williams still heavily involved in passing situations, scatback Jaleel McLaughlin due back from his quad injury, and early-season big-play threat Tyler Badie (back) activated off I.R. This is a touch-and-go RBBC.

Denver’s elite pass protection plus Cincy’s lack of pass-rush production — the Bengals rank bottom six in sacks (30) — should ensure Nix dwells in a clean pocket, allowing Courtland Sutton to make plays downfield. Cincinnati has given up the NFL’s 10th-most 20+ yard completions (45) and fifth-most connections of 40+ (9). … The Broncos continue to run a four-way rotation at Nos. 2-5 wide receiver involving Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. None of them exceeded five targets in Week 16’s loss to the Chargers. They’re all dart throws on Saturday-only DFS slates. (I’m typically siding with Vele if forced to choose.) … The Broncos are also wielding a fantasy-unfriendly committee at tight end composed of Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Nate Adkins.

In Week 16’s win over Cleveland, Joe Burrow became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 250+ yards and three-plus TDs in seven straight games, breaking Tom Brady’s record (6). I’m approaching Burrow as a matchup-proof, elite QB1 whose Week 17 outlook is propped up by Saturday’s potential shootout. … Chase Brown played a career-high 98% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps in last Sunday’s victory and is fantasy’s RB5 since Week 9. Colts and Chargers RBs combined to clock Denver for 43/205/2 (4.8 YPC) rushing over the last two weeks. The Broncos have also surrendered the NFL’s seventh-most catches to running backs (77), while Brown ranks fifth at his position in receptions (50) on the year.

Especially with Broncos No. 2 CB Riley Moss due back from his three-week knee injury, Burrow’s biggest Week 17 obstacle is a loaded Denver pass defense headlined by DPOY candidate Patrick Surtain holding enemy WRs to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points. The Broncos only sporadically utilize Surtain to shadow opposing No. 1 wideouts, while Ja’Marr Chase is on a Triple Crown mission leading the NFL in receptions by a seven-catch margin, maintaining a 123 receiving-yards lead, and having scored four more receiving TDs than anyone else in the league. … In per-game PPR points, Tee Higgins is fantasy’s overall WR13 since coming off injury in Week 11. He’s a bet-on-talent WR2 play versus Denver. … Bengals No. 3 WR Andrei Iosivas profiles as a touchdown-or-bust option on Saturday-only DFS slates. … Mike Gesicki has hit paydirt in one of 15 appearances this year, and his target totals over Cincinnati’s last five games are 2, 5, 3, 4, and 2. He isn’t a realistic TE1 streamer.

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Broncos 23

8:15 PM ET Game

Arizona @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Rams 27, Cardinals 20.5

Eliminated from playoff contention following Week 16’s loss to Carolina, the Cards placed starting OTs Paris Johnson (knee) and Jonah Williams (knee) on I.R. this week and profile as an attack target for the Rams’ D/ST. As the strength of Los Angeles’ defense is its front four, Kyler Murray figures to experience heavy duress on Saturday night. … James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) were limited participants in early-week practice, suggesting both could be active against a middling Rams run defense. Without anything left to play for, it’s fair to wonder if the Cardinals might lean more into Benson, the 66th overall pick in 2024’s draft. A proven commodity, Conner will turn 30 before the start of next season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared 65 yards in two of 15 games. He did clap these same Rams for 4/130/2 receiving in Week 2, while L.A. has let up the 10th-most fantasy WR points over the course of the year. … The Rams have permitted the NFL’s 10th-most catches (82) and ninth-most receiving yards (858) to tight ends. This is a cinch spot for Trey McBride. … Cardinals No. 2 WR Michael Wilson has gone 10 consecutive games without clearing 60 yards.

Even after back-to-back slow box-score efforts against the 49ers (weather) and Jets (game flow), I’m going right back to Matthew Stafford as an upside QB1 starter Saturday night versus the Cardinals. Arizona has coughed up the league’s third-highest completion rate (69.8%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), and sixth-highest passer rating (97.6). The Rams didn’t list a single player on Week 17’s injury report. … Re-establishing himself as the fulcrum of L.A.’s offense, Kyren Williams is averaging 28.7 touches, 112.7 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns over the Rams’ last three games. Williams is a home-favorite bellcow RB facing a Cardinals defense surrendering the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy running back points.

Puka Nacua has caught at least seven passes in seven of his last nine appearances and is fantasy’s overall WR3 behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown since returning from injury in Week 8. … Nacua has clearly separated from Cooper Kupp as Los Angeles’ No. 1 receiver, but I’m going right back to Kupp as a WR2 in an environment where his QB should thrive. … The Rams are now running a four-man tight end weave involving Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Hunter Long, and Davis Allen. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 17