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The best football information available. Period.
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183 episodes
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×HOU @ KC | WAS @ DET | LAR @ PHI | BAL @ BUF Saturday Football 4:30 PM ET Game Houston @ Kansas City Team Totals: Chiefs 25, Texans 16.5 Even fresh off a somewhat season-saving Wild Card upset win over the Chargers, Houston limps into the Divisional Round nursing injuries throughout its pass-catcher corps and O-Line in a road trip to Arrowhead Stadium to face a healthy Chiefs team that hasn’t played starters since Dec. 25. Exhibiting minimal upside, C.J. Stroud has thrown two TD passes or fewer in 16 of 17 starts this season, while 2024’s Chiefs surrendered the league’s fourth-fewest points per game (19.2). … Following a quiet month-long stretch to close out the 2024 regular season, Joe Mixon reasserted himself as Houston’s unchallenged bellcow back by parlaying 26 touches into 119 yards and a TD on 71% of the offensive snaps in Week 19’s win over the Chargers. Yet the Texans are now two-score underdogs facing a Chiefs defense that held enemy running backs to the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points this regular season. RG Juice Scruggs (knee) — filling in for usual starting RG Shaq Mason (knee) — is banged up. I’ll be fading Houston’s running game as an entity at Arrowhead. Nico Collins (6-foot-3/215) has a big size advantage over Chiefs top corner Trent McDuffie (5-foot-10/193), although Collins was held to 60 scoreless yards on 10 targets in these clubs’ Week 16 date. The Chiefs also get back No. 2 CB Jaylen Watson (ankle) from I.R. this week. In what profiles as a rough spot for Houston’s offense as a whole, I’m taking a conservative viewpoint on Collins’ Divisional Round outlook. … Behind Collins, Dalton Schultz (73%), Robert Woods and John Metchie (51%), Cade Stover (49%), Xavier Hutchinson (38%), Irv Smith Jr. (23%), and Diontae Johnson (22%) rounded out the Texans’ pass-catcher rotation in last week’s loss to the Chargers. Woods (hip) continues to look all out of gas. Stover (broken collarbone, I.R.) is done for the year. Johnson got cut on Tuesday. … Schultz is a viable Week 20 DFS tournament play against a Chiefs defense that gave up a league-high 1,191 yards to tight ends this regular season. … Metchie looks like Houston’s only other notable DFS option after averaging 6.7 targets over the Texans’ last three games. Patrick Mahomes found his groove in Weeks 16-17 — before the Chiefs rested starters in Week 18 — lighting up these same Texans and the Steelers for weekly fantasy results of QB5 and QB7. Houston’s defense remains imposing, but Mahomes’ cast of weapons hasn’t been this loaded in forever with DeAndre Hopkins , Marquise Brown , Xavier Worthy , and Travis Kelce all operating at optimum strength following a near-full-month layoff. In box-score terms, I’m in no way ruling out Mahomes outproducing Week 20’s quarterback field. (He’s an obvious underdog to do so.) … HC Andy Reid indicated this week that Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco will continue to be deployed in a near-even, hot-hand manner with no intention of Kansas City settling on a singular feature back. The Texans presented an unfavorable running back matchup all season, but the Chiefs project to feed both RBs double-digit touches as double-digit home favorites here. Pacheco offers more theoretical big-play explosiveness, yet Hunt may be a better bet to score short-yardage touchdowns. For various reasons, the Chiefs ran a wide-ranging wideout committee in the second half of 2024. Draft-pick compensation led to limitations on DeAndre Hopkins after K.C. got him from Tennessee. Xavier Worthy was a late-blooming project. Marquise Brown broke his shoulder in the preseason and didn’t make his Chiefs debut until Week 16. No. 2 TE Noah Gray played a career-high 58% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in 2024. Travis Kelce remains the Chiefs’ alpha tight end, while Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster purport to have sub-package receiving roles. I’m not sure it will happen, but I would personally like to see Kansas City narrow its pass-catcher distribution to feature Hopkins, Worthy, and Brown near full-time in three-receiver sets. … We have a lot of options here. My favorite box-score bet is Hopkins with his snap regulations presumably removed. I think Hopkins has looked excellent in his limited chances as a Chief. Worthy did lead Kansas City in receiving (7/65/1) in these clubs’ Week 16 date. Kelce is a perennial game breaker in the postseason. Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 10 8:00 PM ET Game Washington @ Detroit Team Totals: Lions 32.5, Commanders 23 Easily the playoffs’ highest-totaled game so far, Commanders-Lions sets up as a track meet in Detroit’s favor. Yet Washington finished No. 5 in the NFL in points per game (28.5) and has a Divisional Round team total that should attract over bets. … Among fantasy QBs, only Lamar Jackson , Josh Allen , Joe Burrow , and Baker Mayfield outscored Jayden Daniels in 2024. Detroit yielded the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy quarterback points this regular season and allowed the fourth-most QB rushing yards (454), notable after Daniels finished No. 2 among quarterbacks in rushing yards (891) behind only Lamar Jackson (915). … Averaging 2.97 yards per carry over his last five appearances, Brian Robinson Jr. deserves to be all but deleted from Washington’s offense. This game’s projected negative script and back-and-forth potential suggest superior receiving option Austin Ekeler ought to operate as the Commanders’ main back here. Among remaining playoff teams, only the Bills (750) and Ravens (674) have given up more receiving yards to running backs than the Lions (592). 2024’s Lions permitted the NFL’s second-most receptions (244) and a league-high 3,147 yards to enemy wideouts. Indoors at Ford Field, to call this a plus spot for Terry McLaurin would be an understatement. McLaurin has scored 14 touchdowns over his last 16 games. The Lions have coughed up the NFL’s second-most 20+ yard completions. … Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown almost evenly split Commanders No. 2 wideout duties against the Bucs; Zaccheaus out-snapped Brown 50 to 45, yet Brown drew five targets to Zaccheaus’ three, and Dyami went off for a career game (5/89/1). I’m down to bet Zaccheaus resumes outproducing Brown here. Zaccheaus’ snap rates over his last four appearances are 68%, 69%, 76%, and 69%. He’s No. 2 in Washington’s wideout packages; Brown, when healthy, is No. 3. … The Lions present a difficult matchup for Zach Ertz on paper, having allowed the NFL’s third-fewest receptions (68) and third-fewest yards (665) to tight ends. At home beneath Ford Field’s comfy dome, Jared Goff draws a Commanders team that plays competitive but middling pass defense. In Detroit this season, Goff has a remarkable 72% completion rate and 21:6 TD-to-INT ratio while averaging 282.4 passing yards per game. We can’t plan on rushing production from Goff, but he can light it up in shootout scenarios. … Back practicing fully, David Montgomery (knee) figures to contribute in short-yardage and pass-pro situations. Jahmyr Gibbs has earned the Lions’ main-back role by averaging 5.7 yards per carry, 162.3 total yards per game, and scoring six all-purpose touchdowns over his last three starts. The Commanders gave up the NFL’s fourth-most rushing yards to running backs (1,935). Relevant for older-school fantasy players, this looks like a Jamaal Charles-Thomas Jones situation with Gibbs in the Charles role and Montgomery as Jones. Especially with Detroit’s skill-player cast fully restored by Montgomery’s return, pinpointing individual Lions to box-score pop feels like an exercise in randomness. Amon-Ra St. Brown is always the safest bet after finishing the regular season No. 2 in the NFL in catches (115), No. 5 in receiving yards (1,263), and No. 3 in receiving TDs (12). … Once questioned in some circles for his ability to earn targets, Jameson Williams indeed averaged 7.1 targets per game over Detroit’s final seven regular-season affairs. Williams has re-entered boom-bust WR2/3 territory. … Sam LaPorta has drawn six or more targets in eight straight games. Nothing stands out about LaPorta’s Week 20 matchup, but his week-to-week usage has been stable. … Lions No. 3 WR Tim Patrick and No. 2 TE Brock Wright are touchdown-reliant, longer-shot dart throws on Divisional Round-only DFS tournament slates. Score Prediction: Lions 34, Commanders 24 Sunday Football 3:00 PM ET Game L.A. Rams @ Philadelphia Team Totals: Eagles 25, Rams 19 Predictably successful in Wild Card Weekend’s home win over the blitz-heavy Vikings, the Rams now travel to face an Eagles team that blitzes at the NFL’s fifth-lowest rate. Philly’s 2024 defense yielded the league’s second-fewest points per game (17.8), sixth-lowest completion rate (62.2%), a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s third-lowest passer rating (82.5). I’m taking Philadelphia to cover Sunday’s 6-point spread while betting Matthew Stafford unders. … 2024’s Eagles permitted the league’s seventh-fewest rushing yards (1,357) and seventh-fewest receiving yards (473) to running backs. Kyren Williams ’ lone appealing Week 20 trait is his volume projection; he could easily appear on 100% of the Rams’ Divisional Round snaps. Williams is a poor bet for any kind of efficiency. No Rams wideout catches a positive Divisional Round draw. Puka Nacua is always the unit’s best bet for production, averaging nearly 11 targets over his last nine appearances. But 2024’s Eagles yielded the NFL’s third-fewest yards (2,202) to wide receivers. … Looking gassed out at age 31, Cooper Kupp has finished below 30 receiving yards in five of L.A.’s last six games. … Before exiting Week 19 with a chest injury, Tyler Higbee had secured 10 of 12 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. The Eagles defended tight ends stoutly this season but lost every-down MLB Nakobe Dean to a torn patellar tendon last week. Assuming Higbee (chest) plays, he’ll be in a nice spot. If he doesn’t, Colby Parkinson would become an intriguing DFS tournament gamble. … Rams No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson plays a ton of snaps but is rarely thrown to. Disregarding Week 18 when the Rams sat starters, Robinson has drawn three targets or fewer in seven straight. Especially with Philadelphia favored by nearly a touchdown at home, this profiles as a game the Eagles can control with their rushing attack featuring OPOY lock Saquon Barkley . Undersized and explosive, the Rams’ defensive front can cause penetration but yielded the NFL’s sixth-most yards per carry (4.6) this regular season and can be exposed by powerful offensive fronts like the Eagles’. Significant favorites at home and far more talented than their Divisional Round opponent, I like the Eagles’ chances of dominating time of possession with Barkley leading the way. … 2024’s Rams gave up the NFL’s fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6), 10th-highest passer rating (95.9), and seventh-most fantasy QB points per game. Jalen Hurts ’ bottom line almost always comes down to Tush Push rushing scores, but there is nothing to fear about his Week 20 draw. Philadelphia’s probable run-heavy approach makes life difficult on Eagles pass-catcher projections. 2024’s Rams did give up the NFL’s fourth-most completions of 20+ yards (57), while A.J. Brown ranked ninth in the league in 20+ yard grabs (17) and DeVonta Smith finished 22nd (14). The matchups for Brown and Smith are favorable; pass volume is by far the biggest concern. … An utter beast since coming off I.R. two games ago, Dallas Goedert secured eight of 12 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 18-19, logged a 92% snap rate in Philly’s Wild Card win over the Packers, and stole several souls on last week’s 24-yard catch-and-run TD. The Rams served up 2024’s second-most receptions (106) and fourth-most yards (1,101) to tight ends. This looks like a plus draw for Goedert. Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Rams 17 6:30 PM ET Game Baltimore @ Buffalo Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Bills 25 Totaled at 51.5 points, Ravens-Bills is another Divisional Round game with track-meet potential. Box-score risk surrounding Lamar Jackson involves likely missing Zay Flowers (knee) and this game morphing into a Derrick Henry clinic against a Bills defense best attacked on the ground. As he tends to do this time of year, Henry is cooking with an otherworldly average of 25.8 touches, 175.3 yards, and 1.3 TDs over his last four games. … A bet on Jackson is purely that: a wager on this year’s possible NFL MVP. There are no outstanding matchup advantages working in Jackson’s favor at Buffalo. … Justice Hill offers Divisional Round sleeper appeal on the pretense that Baltimore falls behind. Purely a receiving back, Hill encounters a Buffalo defense that in 2024 coughed up the league’s second-most receptions (92) and a league-high 750 receiving yards to running backs. I’m writing this assuming Flowers sits. … In Flowers’ Week 19 absence, Isaiah Likely paced Baltimore in receiving while logging the second-highest snap rate (80%) of his 53-game career. I expect Ravens wideouts to struggle here with Bills top CB Christian Benford draped on Rashod Bateman and the likes of Tylan Wallace and Nelson Agholor rounding out the position group. … Likely and Mark Andrews stand firmly atop the Ravens’ pass-catcher totem pole. 2024’s Bills yielded the league’s 12th-most catches to tight ends (92). Josh Allen ’s historical numbers against Baltimore are atrocious; in five career dates with the Ravens, Allen is 81-of-156 (52%) passing for 819 yards (5.3 YPA) and a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio. I’m betting the under on this game’s 51.5-point total. 2024’s Ravens allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest QB rushing yards (233). … A roughly 25% player down the stretch of 2024, Ray Davis ’ Divisional Round availability seems questionable after he got concussed in Week 19’s win over Denver. Davis’ absence would boost box-score outlooks for Bills Nos. 1-2 RBs James Cook and Ty Johnson versus Baltimore. Yet neither Buffalo back sees a friendly draw; this year’s Ravens allowed the league’s third-fewest fantasy running back points. Box-score projections for Bills wide receivers are frustrating to concoct; perimeter cardio guy Mack Hollins led the unit in Week 19 playing time (68%), while rookie Keon Coleman (61%) was right behind him but drew just three targets against the Broncos, and trusty but upside-lacking Khalil Shakir only appeared on 53% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper were minimally involved versus Denver. Bills OC Joe Brady is obviously committed to this five-way wideout weave, crushing its members’ box-score viability. … Dalton Kincaid hasn’t reached a 50% playing-time rate in a game since Week 9. Dawson Knox is a touchdown-or-bust dart throw who’s hit paydirt just once all season. Score Prediction: Bills 24, Ravens 23…
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Divisional Round slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for the Divisional Round. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
LAC @ HOU | PIT @ BAL | DEN @ BUF | GB @ PHI | WAS @ TB | MIN @ LAR Wild Card Saturday 4:30 PM ET Game L.A. Chargers @ Houston Team Totals: Chargers 22.5, Texans 20 Justin Herbert enters Saturday’s date with the Texans beneath Houston’s NRG Stadium roof on a tear, having completed 77 of 105 passes (73%) for 911 yards (8.7 YPA) and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio over Los Angeles’ last three games. Averaging 27.3 rushing yards, Herbert closed 2024’s regular season as fantasy’s overall QB5 in that Weeks 16-18 stretch. … Back from I.R. two weeks ago, J.K. Dobbins immediately reasserted himself as the Bolts’ bellcow by averaging 20.5 touches for 79 yards and 0.5 TDs in wins over the Patriots and Raiders. The Texans surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this regular season, but this profiles as a neutral- to positive-script affair for the Chargers in which Dobbins should again be ridden hard. I’m anticipating another outing of 20+ touches. Ladd McConkey enters Week 19 having topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in seven straight games while netting fantasy’s cumulative WR10 score in per-game PPR points since Week 8. As McConkey runs 65% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Texans stud outside CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter on the majority of this game’s snaps. … As perimeter cover men, Stingley and Lassiter are far likelier to deal with Week 18 breakout Quentin Johnston , who runs 91% of his routes outside. On paper, this game adds up nicely in Herbert and McConkey’s favor. … Will Dissly is the Chargers’ tight end to bet on if you’re touchdown hunting and/or seeking out a Herbert attachment. Box-score hopes for C.J. Stroud feel wafer thin after a massively disappointing sophomore year in which he took colossal steps back from his rookie season in terms of yards per pass attempt (8.2 > 7.0), QB rating (100.8 > 87.0), and fantasy points per game (18.9 > 14.4). The Texans have allowed free rushers to affect Stroud at an unsustainably high rate, which may cost OC Bobby Slowik his job after this season mercifully ends. Week 19 foe Los Angeles has surrendered the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7) and seventh-lowest passer rating (87). … 28-year-old Joe Mixon should have relatively fresh legs after amassing just 17 combined touches over Houston’s final two regular-season games. 2024’s Chargers limited opposing running backs to the league’s third-fewest fantasy points. Nevertheless, the Texans figure to ride Mixon with authority as long as Saturday’s game stays close. Even with Stefon Diggs (ACL) and Tank Dell (leg/knee) down for the count, Nico Collins hasn’t topped 60 yards since Week 13. Yet Collins is worth betting on in Week 19 with team survival on the line. The Chargers have played middling defense against WRs, while Collins established himself as a true alpha this year. … Usage distribution between John Metchie , Robert Woods , Xavier Hutchinson , and Diontae Johnson is to be determined; Johnson is obviously most talented of the group but had fallings out with the Panthers and Ravens in the same year and is learning Houston’s offense on the fly. … Albeit a 2024 disappointment in both real life and fantasy, Dalton Schultz remains the Texans’ primary tight end. It still wouldn’t surprise if rookie TE Cade Stover nearly equaled Schultz in Week 19 playing time. Score Prediction: Texans 21, Chargers 20 8:00 PM ET Game Pittsburgh @ Baltimore Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Steelers 17 Obviously exacerbated by No. 1 WR George Pickens ’ refusal to buy into the Steelers’ team goals, Russell Wilson dipped into low-end two-quarterback-league territory down 2024’s stretch. From Weeks 11-18, the Ravens yielded a microscopic 5.8 yards-per-pass-attempt average and 72 QB rating. Russ hasn’t so much as reached 220 passing yards since Week 13. … As a two-score road dog here, Pittsburgh projects to feature Jaylen Warren ahead of Najee Harris at Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most receiving yards (674) to running backs — complementing Warren’s catch-first skill set — while Warren tends to out-snap Harris when Pittsburgh is coming from behind. The Steelers are big underdogs. Pickens’ weekly effort is a guess. In five career dates with the Ravens, Pickens’ stat lines are 8/89/0, 0/0/0, 6/130/1, 2/29/0, and 3/78/0. … Pat Freiermuth has emerged as Pittsburgh’s most reliable receiving option, averaging 6.3 targets and 5.0 catches over the Steelers’ last six games. … In order, Van Jefferson , Calvin Austin , and Mike Williams continue to occupy Pittsburgh’s Nos. 2-4 wide receiver roles. Unless Pickens springs to life and keeps his head on straight, this feels like a dead passing game outside of Freiermuth. As a volume workhorse on a team favored by two scores at home, Derrick Henry looks ticketed for monster Week 19 usage. The Steelers never presented an especially favorable regular-season matchup for enemy rushing attacks, yet Henry piled up 26 all-purpose touches in these clubs’ Week 16 meeting and finished the season No. 1 in the AFC in rushing attempts (325) and rushing yards (1,921) while tying for the league lead in rushing TDs (16). … Beginning with most recent, Lamar Jackson ’s last three weekly fantasy finishes against the Steelers are QB13, QB24, and QB19. No NFL team has done a better job of containing Jackson than Pittsburgh since he entered the league, while the likely absence of Ravens No. 1 WR Zay Flowers (knee) cuts into Jackson’s passing projection. Sans Flowers, Rashod Bateman takes front and center as Baltimore’s No. 1 wideout after netting 2024 career highs in targets (72), receiving yards (756), and TDs (9) while creating separation versus man coverage at a top-10 clip. Pittsburgh did permit the NFL’s eighth-most receiving yards to enemy wideouts (2,635) in 2024. … Mark Andrews logged his second-highest snap rate of the season in Week 18’s win over Cleveland (79%) and has scored 11 touchdowns over Baltimore’s last 12 games. This regular season, Pittsburgh gave up the NFL’s second-most catches (106) to tight ends. … Flowers’ absence also elevates the outlook for Isaiah Likely , who caused Weeks 11 (4/75/0) and 16 (3/29/1) problems for the Steelers. Likely has a chance to be a real difference-maker on playoff-only DFS slates. … Tylan Wallace appears likely to operate as Baltimore’s No. 2 wideout in place of Flowers after logging a 73% snap rate in Week 18’s win over Cleveland. A 2021 fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma State, Wallace stands 5-foot-11/194 with 4.49 speed and almost no track record of NFL production. He nevertheless warrants mention on playoff-only DFS slates. Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 17 Wild Card Sunday 1:00 PM ET Game Denver @ Buffalo Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Broncos 19 I took Denver to cover this game’s 8.5-point spread, even as a Bills Super Bowl ticket holder from all the way back in June. The Broncos are averaging 32.6 points scored over their last seven games while allowing the NFL’s third-fewest points per game (18.3) over the course of the year. … Denver’s short-area passing game theoretically matches up favorably against a Bills defense geared to halt big plays. 30th among 2024 starting quarterbacks in aDOT (3.8), Bo Nix has shown he’s capable of picking apart zone-based secondaries behind an elite pass-protecting offensive line in HC Sean Payton ’s high-percentage attack. The Broncos scored 24 or more points in each of their final seven games. … Denver’s RB distribution remains a conundrum involving Jaleel McLaughlin , Audric Estime , Javonte Williams , and dual-threat Nix, who led the team in Week 18 rushing. McLaughlin looks to be the safest-floor, highest-ceiling bet having handled double-digit touches in four straight appearances. McLaughlin is also Denver’s most natural pass-catching back, while Buffalo has given up the NFL’s second-most grabs (92) and a league-high 750 receiving yards to opposing RBs. Buffalo’s zone-coverage defense has held opponents to the NFL’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43), while plus-sized No. 1 CB Christian Benford (6-foot-1/208) has a shot to give Courtland Sutton fits. (Benford has allowed a minuscule 5.4 yards per target this season.) … Marvin Mims Jr. is a rotational part of Denver’s wideout corps — he hovers in the 35-50% snap range on a per-game basis — but is regularly seeing around five targets supplemented by rushing opportunities. Mims is a low-floor, high-ceiling lottery ticket. … Devaughn Vele , Troy Franklin , and Lil’Jordan Humphrey round out the Broncos’ five-man WR weave. Vele is playing the most of that group. … No member of Denver’s three-way tight end rotation — consisting of Adam Trautman , Nate Adkins , and Lucas Krull — has teased fantasy appeal. MVP favorite Josh Allen ’s Week 19 statistical edges are minimal against a Broncos defense that’s surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and sixth-lowest QB rating (86.2) while leading the league in sacks (63). I’m parlaying Denver covering 8.5 with the under on this game’s 46.5-point total. … OC Joe Brady narrowing Buffalo’s backfield to feature James Cook and reduce the usage of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis in the playoffs should surprise no one as part of a theoretical effort to feed the Bills’ best players the ball. The Broncos haven’t offered a plus running back draw all season, but Cook is an explosive ball carrier and pass catcher who led the NFL in regular-season rushing touchdowns (16). Buffalo has held strong onto a five-way WR rotation involving possession threat Khalil Shakir , low-volume decoy Mack Hollins , volatile rookie Keon Coleman , hot-and-cold trade-deadline acquisition Amari Cooper , and gadget type Curtis Samuel . The Broncos allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy wide receiver points this season. … Among 2024’s biggest box-score disappointments, Dalton Kincaid hit 55 yards in none of his 13 appearances this season and is by no means assured of playing ahead of Dawson Knox versus Denver. Score Prediction: Bills 21, Broncos 20 4:30 PM ET Game Green Bay @ Philadelphia Team Totals: Eagles 25, Packers 20.5 Losers in each of their final two regular-season games, the Packers limp into Philly to face an Eagles team that rested starters in Week 18. Jordan Love was limited in practice this week after losing feeling in his throwing hand in last Sunday’s loss to Chicago, while top deep threat Christian Watson (ACL) is gone for the year. The Eagles have allowed the NFL’s sixth-lowest completion rate (62.2%), a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s third-lowest QB rating (82.5). I’m taking Philly to cover this game’s 4.5-point spread. … No team allowed fewer fantasy running back points than Philadelphia in 2024, while HC Matt LaFleur ’s Packers showed no late-season willingness to adjust game plans to attack opponents’ weaknesses. Josh Jacobs risks running relentlessly into brick walls at Philly. Watson’s loss narrows Green Bay’s probable three-receiver set to Romeo Doubs , Jayden Reed , and Dontayvion Wicks against a rested and elite Eagles secondary that permitted the league’s third-fewest yards to enemy WRs (2,202) this regular season. You’re entirely on your own guessing which Packers wideout might deliver here. … Tucker Kraft is arguably Green Bay’s most stable pass catcher after averaging 50.8 yards over the last six games. Sidelined since Dec. 22, Jalen Hurts should be refreshed physically ahead of Week 19’s home date with Green Bay surrounded by a fully-loaded arsenal that got back Dallas Goedert (knee) from a month-long absence in last Sunday’s win over the Giants. Matchups with the Packers haven’t been overly favorable for enemy quarterbacks, yet Hurts has long been a matchup-proof scorer. He’s 2024’s fantasy QB6 in per-game points. … Deprived of an opportunity to break Eric Dickerson ’s all-time single-season rushing record in Week 18, Saquon Barkley ought to approach Sunday’s game with a chip on his shoulder. A volume fiend on a team favored healthily at home, Barkley is the overall RB1 on the Wild Card slate. Badly missing top CB Jaire Alexander (PCL, I.R.), the Packers got ripped by enemy WRs Justin Jefferson (8/92/0), D.J. Moore (9/86/1), Jalen Nailor (5/81/1), and Jordan Addison (6/69/1) over the last two weeks. This is a green-light spot for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith . … This year’s Packers permitted the league’s 10th-most receptions (93) and eighth-most receiving yards (970) to tight ends, setting up Goedert for a useful Wild Card effort. Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Packers 17 8:00 PM ET Game Washington @ Tampa Bay Team Totals: Bucs 27, Commanders 24 Commanders-Bucs is Wild Card Weekend’s highest-totaled contest in a battle of teams that finished Nos. 4 (TB, 29.5) and 5 (WAS, 28.5) in points per game. Record-setting rookie Jayden Daniels is arguably the most dangerous quarterback left in the NFC, while Tampa Bay coughed up the league’s eighth-highest passer rating (96.6) and third-most fantasy QB points this season. … Back from I.R., Austin Ekeler logged a 60% snap rate in Week 18’s return at Dallas and may be Washington’s top tailback option with Brian Robinson Jr. hitting a late wall. Robinson is scoreless and averaging 3.2 yards per carry over the Commanders’ last four games. Ekeler is Washington’s main receiving RB, while Tampa Bay has yielded the NFL’s sixth-most catches (84) and fifth-most receiving yards (655) to enemy running backs. In playoff DFS, Daniels-to- Terry McLaurin stacks deserve extreme popularity after 2024’s Bucs served up the NFL’s third-most catches (232), seventh-most yards (2,665), and 10th-most TD grabs (18) to wide receivers. … Zach Ertz lacks sexy factor but finished the regular season No. 8 among tight ends in targets (91), No. 6 in catches (66), and No. 4 in TDs (7). Only seven defenses permitted more fantasy tight end points than the Bucs. … Olamide Zaccheaus took hold of Washington’s No. 2 wideout job down the stretch, registering stat lines of 5/70/2 (8 targets), 8/85/1 (9), and 2/51/0 (5) on playing-time rates of 69%, 76%, and 69% in Weeks 16-18. This is a fun spot to tee up Zaccheaus in his expanded role. … The Commanders run a WR rotation behind McLaurin and Zaccheaus involving Dyami Brown , Luke McCaffrey , and Jamison Crowder . They’re all dart throws on postseason DFS slates. Baker Mayfield is on a heater ahead of Sunday night’s potential track meet against the Commanders, over his last five games completing 73% of his passes with a 16:5 TD-to-INT ratio and scintillating 9.0 YPA while averaging nearly 30 rush yards per appearance. Baker was fantasy’s overall QB1 over the season’s final five weeks. … Zooming past Rachaad White as Tampa Bay’s feature back, Bucky Irving logged a season-high 70% of the Bucs’ Week 18 offensive snaps while out-touching White 21 to 0. Washington has given up the NFL’s fourth-most rushing yards (1,935) and 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. The Commanders appear to be banking on trade-deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore to lock up Mike Evans , yet a recurring hamstring injury has limited Lattimore to 116 snaps in eight games since his arrival from New Orleans. Lattimore has historically held an edge on Evans, but I’m betting on Evans to win here. … Grasping a near-every-down role down the stretch, rookie Jalen McMillan was fantasy’s overall WR5 over 2024’s final five weeks. McMillan banked a season-high 88% snap rate in Week 18’s win over New Orleans. … Bucs No. 3 wideout Sterling Shepard hasn’t exceeded 20 receiving yards in a game since Week 14. … Cade Otton (knee) hasn’t played since Week 15. Filling in for Otton over the Bucs’ past three games, Payne Durham turned in receiving lines of 5/29/0, 2/36/1, and 2/16/1. Score Prediction: Commanders 28, Bucs 24 Minnesota @ L.A. Rams Team Totals: Vikings 25, Rams 22.5 Sam Darnold ’s flop in Week 18’s blowout loss to Detroit shakes confidence regarding his Wild Card box-score projection, yet Darnold remains set up for Week 19 success with his supporting cast at full strength facing a Rams defense yielding the league’s fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 10th-highest passer rating (95.9) beneath Arizona’s retractable roof. I’m treating Darnold as a boom-or-bust DFS tournament gamble. … Vikings No. 2 RB Cam Akers is averaging a burly 5.4 yards per carry over his last seven appearances, while Aaron Jones seems to have lost steam down the stretch of his age-30 campaign. Nothing stands out particularly positively or negatively about Minnesota’s run-game draw against the Rams, but I’m betting against Jones functioning as a high-volume workhorse here. Justin Jefferson is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.0 catches, 99.0 yards, and 0.8 TDs over his last six games. He clipped the Rams for 8/115/0 receiving on nine targets in these clubs’ Week 8 meeting. L.A. has allowed the NFL’s fourth-most 20+ yard completions (57); Jefferson leads the league in 20+ yard receiving gains (28). … Jordan Addison is averaging 8.3 targets over his last eight games after averaging 4.7 targets in Weeks 1-10. He ranks No. 4 in the NFL in catches of 40+ yards (6). … The Rams got carved up by Cardinals TE Trey McBride (12/123/1), Seahawks TEs Noah Fant (5/63/1) and A.J. Barner (5/34/1), and Jets TE Tyler Conklin (5/59/0) in their final three regular-season games. After logging a season-high 78% snap rate in Week 18’s loss to Detroit, T.J. Hockenson looks set to cook. … Jalen Nailor merits mention on Wild Card Round DFS tournament slates as Minnesota’s locked-in No. 3 wideout after banking receiving lines of 5/81/1 and 3/53/0 in Weeks 17-18. Nailor regularly hovers in the 50% snap range. He’s cleared 55 yards in just two of 17 appearances. Matthew Stafford has cleared 190 passing yards just once since Week 12. In Week 19, he’ll draw a Vikings defense that leads the league in blitz frequency (42%), while Stafford ranks No. 7 among 36 qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt (8.7) and No. 9 in passer rating (107.7) versus the blitz. … Rams No. 2 RB Blake Corum ’s broken forearm locks Kyren Williams into a potentially massive workload after Packers and Lions running backs combined to tag Minnesota for a 54/276/5 (5.1 YPC) rushing line in Weeks 17-18. Puka Nacua ranks No. 2 in the league in yards per route run (4.2) over the last eight weeks, while no NFL wide receiver is targeted more frequently versus the blitz. This is an eruption spot for Nacua. … Despite his quiet recent stretch, Cooper Kupp is set up for Wild Card success indoors against a Vikings defense yielding the league’s most receptions (255), second-most yards (3,115), and 10th-most touchdown catches (18) to WRs. Like Nacua, Kupp is a blitz-beating receiver by trade. … No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson goose-egged in each of the Rams’ last four Stafford-quarterbacked games. … Even with Tyler Higbee (knee) back, Los Angeles seems committed to a three- to four-way tight end rotation also involving Colby Parkinson , Davis Allen , and Hunter Long . Higbee played only 41% of the Rams’ Week 18 offensive snaps against Seattle. This feels like a fantasy situation to avoid. Score Prediction: Rams 24, Vikings 23…
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Wild Card Round slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for the Wild Card Round. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Week 18 slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for Week 18. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
CLE @ BAL | CIN @ PIT | CAR @ ATL | WAS @ DAL | CHI @ GB | HOU @ TEN | JAX @ IND | BUF @ NE | NYG @ PHI | NO @ TB | KC @ DEN | LAC @ LV | SEA @ LAR | MIA @ NYJ | SF @ ARI | MIN @ DET Saturday Doubleheader 4:30 PM ET Game Cleveland @ Baltimore The Ravens are fully motivated with the AFC North title and a first-round home game on the line, and the division-rival Steelers playing right after them on Saturday. The Browns are starting Bailey Zappe , who’s on his third team in three seasons. I’m looking at bets that involve Baltimore holding Cleveland to a touchdown or less, as well as lopsided margin-of-victory bets. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points in each of their last 10 victories. 8:00 PM ET Game Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh At 48 points (-108), the over on Bengals-Steelers is attractive considering Cincinnati is averaging 32.3 points across their last eight games, while Pittsburgh has let up 27.7 PPG since Week 12. The Bengals need a Saturday win plus Sunday losses by both Miami and Denver to qualify for the playoffs. On the other side, Mike Tomlin teams tend to go all-out. Should Chase Brown (ankle, questionable) sit here, I plan to push chips in on Khalil Herbert in terms of prop bets and DFS. Sunday 1:00 PM ET Games Carolina @ Atlanta To make the postseason, the Falcons need a win over the Panthers plus an (unlikely) Bucs Week 18 loss to the Saints. Either way, expect HC Raheem Morris ’ club to go all-out on Sunday from start to finish. Over the last five weeks, Carolina’s defense got eviscerated on the ground by enemy lead backs Bucky Irving (25/152/1), Saquon Barkley (20/124/0), Rico Dowdle (25/149/0), James Conner (15/117/1), and Irving again (20/113/0). This is a balls-to-the-wall Bijan Robinson spot. In terms of yards from scrimmage (rushing plus receiving), I took Robinson to clear 125 at +100, 150 at +205, 175 at +400, and 200 at +750. Washington @ Dallas The Commanders are locked into either the NFC’s sixth or seventh playoff seed, while the Cowboys were eliminated. I have few strong takes on anyone in a battle between teams with questionable motivation. Especially after the Cowboys cut Ezekiel Elliott , however, I do anticipate another hefty workload for Rico Dowdle . Dowdle is averaging 21.8 touches over Dallas’ last six games. Chicago @ Green Bay Comments from Packers players suggest HC Matt LaFleur ’s team is proactively looking to rest starters. Green Bay and Washington are locked into the NFC’s Nos. 6 and 7 playoff seeds. Chicago’s offense has been incompetent almost all year. This is a stay-away game. Jacksonville @ Indianapolis With Anthony Richardson (back) still sidelined and Joe Flacco staying under center, this is a week to bet on a bounce-back performance by Josh Downs after Downs got outproduced by Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 17. Downs still leads the Colts in targets (52), catches (39), and first-down gains (22) on 2024 throws from Flacco, while Jacksonville has yielded the league’s fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Buffalo @ New England I’m not convinced either starting quarterback will finish this game. The Bills are locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed with nowhere to move and will apparently play Josh Allen only to keep his consecutive starts streak (115) alive. On the other side, rumors suggest the Pats want to showcase sixth-round rookie Joe Milton , a big-armed athlete who made training-camp waves. N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia Giants-Eagles sets up as a hotspot for Tyrone Tracy Jr. against a Philly team so intent on sitting starters that they’re depriving Saquon Barkley a chance to break the all-time single-season rushing record. Averaging 16.3 touches over his last four games, converted college WR Tracy’s all-purpose skill set makes him an attractive rushing-plus-receiving yardage bet at 75 (+100), 100 (+255), and especially 125 (+600) against a resting Eagles team. New Orleans @ Tampa Bay Everyone and their mother is on Mike Evans banking five catches and 85 yards in Week 18, but what about the guy throwing to him? At home against a listless Saints defense, I’m taking the over on Baker Mayfield ’s 252.5 passing-yardage total. Houston @ Tennessee The Texans are locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed, while the Titans plan on playing BOTH Will Levis and Mason Rudolph in the same game. This doesn’t add up to a serious affair, although prop betting and DFS markets could become very interesting if Tyjae Spears (concussion) gets ruled out and Tony Pollard (ankle) plays. 4:25 PM ET Games San Francisco @ Arizona Dual-threat astronaut Josh Dobbs will start in place of Brock Purdy (elbow) against a dead Cardinals team, albeit with questionable availability from George Kittle (ankle, hamstring), Deebo Samuel (rib, wrist), and Ricky Pearsall (illness, chest). The big-game candidate I’m eyeing here is Isaac Guerendo , who’s practiced fully this week and averaged 16.7 touches, 100.7 yards, and 0.7 TDs over his last three appearances. Kansas City @ Denver Having clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed and lacking anything to play for, the Chiefs visit Denver fielding a backup-filled lineup. Expect both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco to sit and Samaje Perine to play sparingly. Carson Steele ’s rushing and TD props stand out. Bo Nix to throw for two-plus touchdown passes (-110) and three-plus (+360) both pop as playable at home in a meaningful game for Denver against reserve Chiefs defenders. Seattle @ L.A. Rams Blake Corum has a chance to be a volume workhorse here with the Rams locked into Nos. 3/4 playoff seeding regardless of Sunday’s outcome, and with Seattle already eliminated. L.A. Chargers @ Las Vegas The Chargers are locked into the AFC’s No. 5/6 seed, and HC Jim Harbaugh ’s motivation to go all-out against the Raiders is fair to question after Justin Herbert , J.K. Dobbins , and Ladd McConkey endured seasons flush with bumps and bruises. I don’t question Raiders HC Antonio Pierce ’s Week 18 motivation at all with his job security hanging by a thread. Expect all-out performances from Aidan O’Connell , rookie record setter Brock Bowers , No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers , and surprise late-season sensation Ameer Abdullah . The over on Meyers’ 57.5-yard receiving prop (-125) feels safe. Miami @ N.Y. Jets The Fins look set to trot out Tyler Huntley again after Huntley netted Week 17’s fantasy QB11 finish, this time against a Jets defense missing two-time Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) and top CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring). In Week 17, Huntley showed a legitimate rapport with Tyreek Hill ; the duo connected on a perfect 9-of-9 targets for 105 yards. However, Miami’s skill-position corps looks to be nearing full strength with Jaylen Waddle (knee) due back, and Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane already healthy. I’m not convinced Hill will see nine targets again. I do think Huntley offers some DFS tournament appeal with all of his weapons ready to go in what is still a meaningful game for Miami. Sunday Night Football Minnesota @ Detroit I’ve reached a trustworthy stage regarding Minnesota’s offense and realize Detroit’s injury-depleted defense is a pushover unit, having permitted point totals of 34 (49ers), 17 (Bears), 48 (Bills), and 31 (Packers) over their last four games. Indoors at Ford Field in literally the most meaningful game all season, I like the Vikings to go over their 27-point team total in Detroit. No NFL defense blitzes at a higher rate than Minnesota’s (38%), while Amon-Ra St. Brown is arguably the league’s premier blitz-beating receiver. It should come as no surprise, then, that St. Brown has clapped the Vikings for stat lines of 8/112/1, 7/144/1, and 12/106/1 in three meetings since Brian Flores took over as Minnesota’s defensive play-caller. Even at -150 odds, I like the over on St. Brown securing 6.5 grabs on Sunday night.…
Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer analyze the Week 17 slate from a large-field GPP perspective, discussing optimal strategies and players with an emphasis on ownership and correlation.
Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Andrew Wiggins go position-by-position through the main slate for Week 17. They touch on every viable DFS play for both cash games and tournaments.
KC @ PIT | BAL @ HOU | SEA @ CHI | LAC @ NE | DEN @ CIN | ARI @ LAR | NYJ @ BUF | LV @ NO | IND @ NYG | DAL @ PHI | CAR @ TB | TEN @ JAX | MIA @ CLE | GB @ MIN | ATL @ WAS | DET @ SF 1:00 PM ET Game (Wednesday) Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Team Totals: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20 On their third game in 11 days, the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh with Patrick Mahomes having netted fantasy’s QB8 score over his last five starts while getting back field-stretching WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) against a Steelers defense likely missing top CB Joey Porter Jr. (calf/knee). Mahomes’ protection remains a big concern; Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate (23%), while Pittsburgh has generated the NFL’s second-most QB knockdowns (60). I’m valuing Mahomes in low-end QB1 territory. … Kareem Hunt has stayed (slightly) ahead of Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City’s backfield order by churning out consistent gains; over the past two weeks, Hunt has parlayed 27 touches into 128 yards and a touchdown versus Pacheco’s 24/36/0 result. The Steelers present a below-average fantasy running back matchup, rendering both Hunt and Pacheco TD-dependent flex options. Operating as Mahomes’ No. 1 wideout lately, Xavier Worthy has played 80% or more of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in three straight games and handled 16 touches over the last two. Asked about Worthy this week, OC Matt Nagy likened his progress to Rashee Rice ’s as a rookie. In fantasy, Worthy remains a boom-bust WR3/flex pick. … Marquise Brown ranked fifth among Chiefs WRs in snaps in his first game back but drew eight targets, second most on the team. Among Kansas City wideouts, I’m valuing Worthy in his own top tier while approaching Brown, DeAndre Hopkins , Justin Watson , and JuJu Smith-Schuster as low-ceiling rotational players. … Pittsburgh has coughed up the league’s seventh-most catches to tight ends (83), keeping Travis Kelce relevant and elevating Noah Gray ’s sleeper appeal. Russell Wilson has finished below 20 fantasy points in six of eight starts since taking over for Justin Fields , while Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest passer rating (87.9). Wilson is a poor two-QB-league play. … Jaylen Warren passed Najee Harris as Pittsburgh’s main back over the Steelers’ last two games; Warren out-snapped Harris 63 to 31 and out-touched him 22 to 16 during that span. Yet no NFL team has permitted fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Chiefs this season. Steelers No. 1 WR George Pickens (hamstring) appears ticketed to return from his three-game absence. In Weeks 7-13 — the period in which Wilson started for the Steelers and Pickens was healthy — Pickens was fantasy’s overall WR11 in per-game PPR scoring. … With Pickens due back, Calvin Austin , Van Jefferson , and Mike Williams check in as dart-throw plays on Wednesday-only two-game DFS tournament slates. … Pat Freiermuth is a matchup-driven TE1 streamer facing a Chiefs defense yielding the NFL’s third-most catches (94) and a league-high 1,090 receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Chiefs 20 4:30 PM ET Game (Wednesday) Baltimore @ Houston Team Totals: Ravens 26, Texans 20.5 Lamar Jackson visits Houston’s retractable NRG Stadium dome to face a Texans defense missing FS Jimmie Ward (foot) and SS Jalen Pitre (shoulder) while permitting the league’s ninth-most fantasy quarterback points. Jackson leads the NFL in completions of 40+ yards (13); Houston has conceded the league’s third-most 40+ yard completions (10). … Over his last four games, Derrick Henry is averaging 21.5 touches for 126.8 yards without a single score, suggesting Henry is due for positive-touchdown regression here. Ravens No. 2 RB Justice Hill (concussion) seems unlikely to be active against the Texans. Zay Flowers profiles as a high-floor, questionable-ceiling WR2 play at Houston having collected six-plus targets in eight straight games yet nursing a shoulder injury. … Rashod Bateman has exceeded 80 yards in one of 15 appearances, while the Texans have yielded the NFL’s 10th-most yards to wide receivers (2,318). … Nelson Agholor ’s (concussion) Week 17 availability is to be determined. Tylan Wallace was Baltimore’s next man up in Agholor’s Week 16 absence, yet Wallace ran only six pass routes and wasn’t even targeted against Pittsburgh. … Mark Andrews is fantasy’s overall TE6 since Week 6, while Week 17 foe Houston is missing both starting safeties. … Isaiah Likely is a TD-dependent streamer. C.J. Stroud enters Week 17 having scored 18 fantasy points or fewer in nine straight starts now at risk of missing C Juice Scruggs (foot) and RG Shaq Mason (knee). Stroud’s box-score outlook is dismal after he lost best friend Tank Dell to a debilitating Week 16 knee injury. … As usual, Joe Mixon is a volume-driven RB2 play with RB1 upside facing a Ravens defense surrendering the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy running back points. Houston’s OL injuries further complicate Mixon’s projection. He still stands to flirt with 20 touches. Nico Collins is Saturday’s premier box-score play facing a Ravens defense permitting the NFL’s fifth-most catches (199), fourth-most receiving yards (2,579), and sixth-most receiving TDs (17). … The Texans claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers from the Ravens after losing Tank Dell (ACL/dislocated kneecap), but Johnson can’t be expected to make an immediate impact. … Robert Woods has cleared 20 yards in just one of 13 games. … John Metchie has drawn four targets or fewer in 10 of 11 appearances. Metchie is allegedly now battling a shoulder injury. … Dalton Schultz is TE1 streamable against the Ravens, who’ve given up the NFL’s seventh-most catches (83) and seventh-most receiving yards (880) to tight ends. Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 17 Thursday Night Football Seattle @ Chicago Team Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Bears 20 Geno Smith squares off in Week 17 with a Bears defense permitting the NFL’s second-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) and fourth-most 20+ yard completions (53). Geno ranks top 10 in the league in 20+ yard completions (45) and 13th among QBs in fantasy scoring. Assuming the Solder Field weather cooperates, this is a get-right spot for the Seahawks’ aggressive downfield-challenging signal-caller. … Kenneth Walker resumed Seahawks lead-back duties in Week 16’s loss to Minnesota but suffered an ankle injury on top of his preexisting calf strain and appears unlikely to face Chicago. No longer listed with the oblique injury that limited him last Sunday, Zach Charbonnet looks like a Thursday night smash against a Bears defense enemy running backs have carved for 4.8 yards per carry and 152.4 total yards per game. Charbonnet’s touch counts in his four 2024 starts are 19, 21, 29, and 9. Charbonnet offers RB1 bellcow potential in the event Walker indeed sits. Geno’s 2024 targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 122; DK Metcalf 99; Tyler Lockett 66; Walker 53; Noah Fant 49; Charbonnet 46. … Geno and Smith-Njigba have developed a tight bond; over their last six games, Geno is 43-of-51 passing (87%) for 521 yards (10.2 YPT) and three TDs when targeting JSN. … An underachiever and subpar ball winner, Metcalf has exceeded 70 receiving yards once since Week 4. I’m still siding with Metcalf as an upside WR2 play against a Bears defense that’s hemorrhaging deep pass completions as mentioned above. … Lockett has drawn four targets or fewer in eight straight games. … Fant warrants TE1 streamer attention; Chicago has conceded the NFL’s sixth-most yards to tight ends (909). Caleb Williams will face Seattle missing LT Braxton Jones (broken ankle) and probably LG Teven Jenkins (calf) in an otherwise positive draw after Sam Darnold (QB9), Jordan Love (QB12), and Kyler Murray (QB10) registered favorable FF results against the Seahawks in Weeks 14-16. I’m approaching Williams as a fringe QB1/2 here. … The Seahawks present a middling matchup for running backs, while Bears lead RB D’Andre Swift has gone eight straight games without netting 100 total yards and is now missing nearly half of his O-Line. Keenan Allen looks like an old man on the field but is fantasy’s overall WR6 since Week 12. Thriving on instincts and volume, Allen has drawn eight-plus targets in six of his last eight appearances. He’s a WR2 starter versus Seattle. … D.J. Moore topped 100 receiving yards five times last season. This year, he’s done so twice. Deemed a team captain, Moore’s body language has been rough, and his on-field production inconsistent. As the Seahawks have allowed the NFL’s 13th-most fantasy wide receiver points, Moore still warrants WR2/3 valuation. … Rome Odunze has cleared 80 yards in two of 15 games. He’s a WR3/flex option here. … Cole Kmet has drawn four targets or fewer in eight of his last nine appearances. Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Bears 23 1:00 PM ET Game (Saturday) L.A. Chargers @ New England Team Totals: Chargers 23, Patriots 19 The Chargers visit Foxboro with Justin Herbert having finished below 18 standard-league fantasy points in four of his last five starts and L.A.’s rushing attack positioned for success with Gus Edwards coming off his season-best game, J.K. Dobbins (knee) potentially set to play for the first time since Week 12, and New England missing star DT Christian Barmore (reserve/NFI, blood clots). Over the past two weeks, Cardinals and Bills RBs clocked the Pats for a combined 47/289/3 (6.1 YPC) rushing line. I’m not sure how L.A.’s backfield will shake out in terms of touch distribution — especially if Dobbins returns — but the Bolts are set up for run-game efficiency here. I’m anticipating a limited-volume game for Herbert. Another running-game plus for Los Angeles is the likely return of stud blocking TE Will Dissly , who missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Dissly coming back would also delete Stone Smartt ’s fantasy relevance. … A rock-solid WR2, Ladd McConkey was fantasy’s WR17 in PPR points per game in Weeks 11-16. Since McConkey runs nearly 70% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez on the vast majority of Saturday’s pass plays. … Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer rounded out Los Angeles’ three-receiver sets in Week 16’s win over Denver. They are likelier candidates for Gonzalez’s coverage in a game where the Chargers figure to feature their rushing attack. Drake Maye hasn’t hit 20 standard-league fantasy points since Week 7. The Chargers are yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest QB rating (86.9) while ranking No. 7 in sacks (42). Already beleaguered on the offensive line, the Pats may be without C Ben Brown (concussion). I’m approaching Maye as a two-quarterback-league starter but low-end streamer option. … Rhamondre Stevenson committed his NFL-high seventh fumble of the year in Week 16’s loss to Buffalo and should have been charged with his eighth, only for scorekeepers to attribute it to Maye. Afterwards, HC Jerod Mayo suggested Stevenson’s ball insecurity could cost him his starting job in favor of Antonio Gibson . The Chargers have permitted the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Patriots ran a finite three-receiver package of Kayshon Boutte , Kendrick Bourne , and Pop Douglas in Week 16’s defeat with Boutte leading the way in snaps (88%), targets (7), and production (5/95/1). No New England wideout has proven box-score trustworthy over the course of the year, but these three are playable on Saturday-only three-game slates. … This is a #RevengeGame for Hunter Henry against the team that drafted him. The Bolts have coughed up the NFL’s 11th-most catches to tight ends (80). … Austin Hooper is worth a look in Saturday-only DFS averaging 48.8 receiving yards over the Pats’ last six games. Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 20 4:30 PM ET Game (Saturday) Denver @ Cincinnati Team Totals: Bengals 26.5, Broncos 23 This is a premium spot for Denver’s offense facing a Bengals team surrendering the NFL’s fifth-most points (26.2 PPG) while missing starting DLs Sam Hubbard (knee) and Sheldon Rankins (illness) plus MLB Logan Wilson (knee, I.R.). Still fantasy’s overall QB9 on the year, Bo Nix is a confident QB1 at Cincinnati in Week 17’s second-highest-totaled game. … The Broncos’ backfield remains a mess with HC Sean Payton saying one-dimensional rookie Audric Estime has earned more opportunities, Javonte Williams still heavily involved in passing situations, scatback Jaleel McLaughlin due back from his quad injury, and early-season big-play threat Tyler Badie (back) activated off I.R. This is a touch-and-go RBBC. Denver’s elite pass protection plus Cincy’s lack of pass-rush production — the Bengals rank bottom six in sacks (30) — should ensure Nix dwells in a clean pocket, allowing Courtland Sutton to make plays downfield. Cincinnati has given up the NFL’s 10th-most 20+ yard completions (45) and fifth-most connections of 40+ (9). … The Broncos continue to run a four-way rotation at Nos. 2-5 wide receiver involving Devaughn Vele , Marvin Mims Jr. , Troy Franklin , and Lil’Jordan Humphrey . None of them exceeded five targets in Week 16’s loss to the Chargers. They’re all dart throws on Saturday-only DFS slates. (I’m typically siding with Vele if forced to choose.) … The Broncos are also wielding a fantasy-unfriendly committee at tight end composed of Adam Trautman , Lucas Krull , and Nate Adkins . In Week 16’s win over Cleveland, Joe Burrow became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 250+ yards and three-plus TDs in seven straight games, breaking Tom Brady ’s record (6). I’m approaching Burrow as a matchup-proof, elite QB1 whose Week 17 outlook is propped up by Saturday’s potential shootout. … Chase Brown played a career-high 98% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps in last Sunday’s victory and is fantasy’s RB5 since Week 9. Colts and Chargers RBs combined to clock Denver for 43/205/2 (4.8 YPC) rushing over the last two weeks. The Broncos have also surrendered the NFL’s seventh-most catches to running backs (77), while Brown ranks fifth at his position in receptions (50) on the year. Especially with Broncos No. 2 CB Riley Moss due back from his three-week knee injury, Burrow’s biggest Week 17 obstacle is a loaded Denver pass defense headlined by DPOY candidate Patrick Surtain holding enemy WRs to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points. The Broncos only sporadically utilize Surtain to shadow opposing No. 1 wideouts, while Ja’Marr Chase is on a Triple Crown mission leading the NFL in receptions by a seven-catch margin, maintaining a 123 receiving-yards lead, and having scored four more receiving TDs than anyone else in the league. … In per-game PPR points, Tee Higgins is fantasy’s overall WR13 since coming off injury in Week 11. He’s a bet-on-talent WR2 play versus Denver. … Bengals No. 3 WR Andrei Iosivas profiles as a touchdown-or-bust option on Saturday-only DFS slates. … Mike Gesicki has hit paydirt in one of 15 appearances this year, and his target totals over Cincinnati’s last five games are 2, 5, 3, 4, and 2. He isn’t a realistic TE1 streamer. Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Broncos 23 8:15 PM ET Game (Saturday) Arizona @ L.A. Rams Team Totals: Rams 27, Cardinals 20.5 Eliminated from playoff contention following Week 16’s loss to Carolina, the Cards placed starting OTs Paris Johnson (knee) and Jonah Williams (knee) on I.R. this week and profile as an attack target for the Rams’ D/ST. As the strength of Los Angeles’ defense is its front four, Kyler Murray figures to experience heavy duress on Saturday night. … James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) were limited participants in early-week practice, suggesting both could be active against a middling Rams run defense. Without anything left to play for, it’s fair to wonder if the Cardinals might lean more into Benson, the 66th overall pick in 2024’s draft. A proven commodity, Conner will turn 30 before the start of next season. Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared 65 yards in two of 15 games. He did clap these same Rams for 4/130/2 receiving in Week 2, while L.A. has let up the 10th-most fantasy WR points over the course of the year. … The Rams have permitted the NFL’s 10th-most catches (82) and ninth-most receiving yards (858) to tight ends. This is a cinch spot for Trey McBride . … Cardinals No. 2 WR Michael Wilson has gone 10 consecutive games without clearing 60 yards. Even after back-to-back slow box-score efforts against the 49ers (weather) and Jets (game flow), I’m going right back to Matthew Stafford as an upside QB1 starter Saturday night versus the Cardinals. Arizona has coughed up the league’s third-highest completion rate (69.8%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), and sixth-highest passer rating (97.6). The Rams didn’t list a single player on Week 17’s injury report. … Re-establishing himself as the fulcrum of L.A.’s offense, Kyren Williams is averaging 28.7 touches, 112.7 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns over the Rams’ last three games. Williams is a home-favorite bellcow RB facing a Cardinals defense surrendering the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy running back points. Puka Nacua has caught at least seven passes in seven of his last nine appearances and is fantasy’s overall WR3 behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown since returning from injury in Week 8. … Nacua has clearly separated from Cooper Kupp as Los Angeles’ No. 1 receiver, but I’m going right back to Kupp as a WR2 in an environment where his QB should thrive. … The Rams are now running a four-man tight end weave involving Tyler Higbee , Colby Parkinson , Hunter Long , and Davis Allen . It’s a fantasy situation to avoid. Score Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 17 N.Y. Jets @ Buffalo Team Totals: Bills 28, Jets 19 Buffalo’s D/ST is an attractive Week 17 play at home as 9-point favorites against a Jets team down to its third-string left tackle after losing Tyron Smith (neck) and Olu Fashanu (foot) for the year. RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle) and RT Morgan Moses (ankle) were also out of practice early this week, while Aaron Rodgers is nursing a sprained MCL. … Breece Hall reasserted himself atop Gang Green’s backfield in Week 16’s loss to the Rams, logging 19 touches on a 77% playing-time clip. This is a plus on-paper draw for Hall; Buffalo has let up the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points and second-most catches (86) to running backs. Garrett Wilson is on #SqueakyWheel alert after expressing frustration with his usage after Week 16’s defeat, while Davante Adams (hip) is less than 100%. The Bills have provided a middling matchup for wide receivers. I’m approaching Wilson and Adams both as upside WR2s. … Allen Lazard has dropped nine of 54 targets this season, “good” for a league-worst 17% drop rate. Lazard has 38 scoreless yards to his name since the month of October. … Tyler Conklin has cleared 60 yards in one of 14 appearances and hit paydirt in just two of 14. Nursing a right elbow/shoulder injury that caused numbness in his throwing hand, Josh Allen is coming off his season-worst game in Week 16’s close-call win over New England. Allen is practicing fully this week, however, and the Jets’ defense is banged up with Nos. 1 and 3 CBs Sauce Gardner (hamstring) and Michael Carter (back) missing early-week practice and DT Quinnen Williams coming off a hamstring pull that cost him last Sunday’s game. Still fantasy’s No. 2 quarterback scorer, Allen should stay locked into lineups during title week. … Buffalo’s backfield has devolved into a full-blown three-way RBBC; Ty Johnson led the room in Week 16 snaps (39%), but only barely ahead of James Cook (36%) and Ray Davis (24%), yet Cook exploded for 126 total yards and two scores on 14 touches, while Johnson (6/30/0) and Davis (6/29/0) were involved but far less impactful. Last week, Kyren Williams shredded this same Jets defensive front for 129 yards and a TD on 24 touches. I’m viewing Cook as a volatile yet high-ceiling RB1/2 play with Buffalo favored by nine at home. Based on route participation on Allen’s Week 16 dropbacks, Khalil Shakir was the Bills’ No. 1 receiver against the Patriots, Mack Hollins was the No. 2, Keon Coleman was No. 3, and Amari Cooper was No. 4. Meanwhile, Dawson Knox out-snapped and ran more pass routes than Dalton Kincaid . No team in the league uses wider-ranging skill-player rotations than Buffalo. Shakir is the lone somewhat confident box-score bet, and he’s a fringe WR3/flex. Score Prediction: Bills 30, Jets 17 Las Vegas @ New Orleans Team Totals: Raiders 19.5, Saints 18 As Raiders-Saints is Week 17’s lowest-totaled affair, this is a game to shy away from in lineup decisions. … Aidan O’Connell has played in three full 2024 games; his weekly fantasy finishes in them are QB26, QB11, and QB25. The Saints have allowed the league’s 11th-fewest fantasy quarterback points. … Alexander Mattison operated as the Raiders’ lead back in Week 16’s win over the Jaguars but ran in place (12/27/1 rushing), whereas Ameer Abdullah parlayed 12 touches into 85 yards and a TD. New Orleans has been stomped for the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy RB points. Mattison and Abdullah are fringe flex plays here. AOC’s 2024 targets: Brock Bowers 47; Jakobi Meyers 30; Tre Tucker 17; Abdullah 16; Mattison 14; Michael Mayer 8. … Last week, Bowers became the third tight end in NFL history to reach 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. Bowers’ stat lines in O’Connell’s three full games are 9/71/0, 10/140/1, and 11/99/0. … Meyers is a rock-solid WR2/3 option against a Saints defense conceding the league’s sixth-most catches (194) and fifth-most receiving yards (2,539) to wideouts. … Diminutive Tucker appears to have maxed out as a lightly-used gadget guy. … Raiders No. 2 TE Mayer has exceeded three targets in one game all season. The Saints sound likely to again trot out overwhelmed fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler after Rattler turned in fantasy results of QB20, QB24, and QB32 in his three previous full games. Vegas’ D/ST is playable with New Orleans at risk of missing C Erik McCoy (elbow) and LG Lucas Patrick (knee). … Alvin Kamara (groin) appears probable to sit after Kendre Miller , Jordan Mims , and Jamaal Williams formed a gross three-way RBBC in Kamara’s Week 16 absence against the Packers. Miller was presumed to have the upper hand but is apparently still struggling with the Saints’ playbook and barely played in the second half. Sidelined since Week 9, Chris Olave (concussions) is practicing fully and has a chance to bookend Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest), who missed Week 16. With Rattler behind center, I still have no idea what to make of New Orleans’ Week 17 wideout distribution and am not wholly convinced Olave will play. … The Saints’ two-way tight end committee of Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson works against itself in terms of individual box-score relevance. The good news is the Raiders have coughed up the NFL’s sixth-most catches (88) and fourth-most receiving yards (942) to tight ends. The bad news is Moreau and Johnson are sharing the field with an overmatched Day 3 rookie quarterbacking the offense. Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Saints 13 Indianapolis @ N.Y. Giants Team Totals: Colts 24, Giants 16 This is an eruption spot for Indianapolis’ offense against a Giants team giving up the NFL’s eighth-most points per game (24.1), including a league-high 69.8% completion rate, the NFL’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.7), and pro football’s second-highest passer rating (104.4). Anthony Richardson is fantasy’s QB9 in per-game scoring since Week 11. … Jonathan Taylor handled touch counts of 26, 23, and 29 over the Colts’ last three games. The Giants have conceded the league’s sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. In Week 16, Indianapolis got back stalwart C Ryan Kelly (knee) from I.R., making a huge difference. Michael Pittman Jr. is scoreless since Week 6 and has cleared 65 yards in two of 14 games. The Giants have allowed the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy WR points. … Rookie Adonai Mitchell jumped into Alec Pierce ’s (concussion) role in last week’s win over Tennessee and drew just one target. Pierce seems probable to return here. … Downs has emerged as the Colts’ best wide receiver but plays with a quarterback completing an anemic 47.7% of his throws, rendering Downs a dicey WR3/flex option in fantasy. … Colts TEs are never fantasy-relevant. Indianapolis’ D/ST is a recommended streamer against Drew Lock , who is nursing a right shoulder injury after delivering two pick-sixes against the Falcons and could be benched at any moment for Tommy DeVito . … Tyrone Tracy Jr. maintained New York’s lead RB job over Devin Singletary in Week 16’s defeat, out-snapping Singletary 36 to 13 and out-touching him 11 to 4. Tracy encounters a favorable draw so long as the G-Men can keep Sunday’s game close; Indy has yielded 145.2 total yards per game to enemy RBs. College WR Tracy is an excellent receiver, and the Colts have given up the league’s 10th-most RB catches (72). Malik Nabers needs nine catches over the season’s final two weeks to break Puka Nacua ’s record for most receptions by a rookie. … Wan’Dale Robinson is sporting a minuscule 4.9-yard aDOT while averaging 10.7 targets over New York’s last three games. He offers some PPR-league appeal but is in no way positioned to create big plays. … Darius Slayton hasn’t cleared 30 yards since before the Giants’ Week 10 bye. … Since Theo Johnson was lost for the season, Daniel Bellinger is averaging three catches for 28 scoreless yards per game. Score Prediction: Colts 27, Giants 10 Dallas @ Philadelphia Team Totals: Eagles 22.5, Cowboys 15.5 Eliminated from playoff contention, the Cowboys have shut down top offensive player CeeDee Lamb (shoulder, I.R.) and figure to struggle to score on the road against an Eagles team yielding the league’s fifth-fewest points per game (18.9). Cooper Rush has asserted himself as one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks — he’s 9-4 across 13 career starts — but nothing about Rush’s weaponry or matchup suggests he’ll be box-score successful here. … Rico Dowdle is an entirely volume-driven RB2 option averaging 21.4 touches over Dallas’ last five games but facing an elite Eagles run defense on a Cowboys team projected as touchdown underdogs on the road. I don’t trust Dowdle’s floor and question his ceiling. Lamb’s absence frees up over 10 targets per game in Dallas’ offense. I expect the Cowboys to trot out a three-receiver set of Brandin Cooks , Jalen Tolbert , and Ryan Flournoy with KaVontae Turpin mixing in as No. 4. Jonathan Mingo also figures to soak up some snaps. In fantasy, I’m not tempted by any of them. Dallas’ non-Lamb pass catchers have been problematic all season, and the Eagles have yielded the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards (1,970) to WRs this year. … Philadelphia has straightened out its tight end coverage via improved linebacker and safety play, while Jake Ferguson is scoreless in 17 straight games and has increasingly fallen into a TE rotation with Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford . Signs point to Jalen Hurts (concussion) sitting and Kenny Pickett starting versus Dallas, necessitating an extremely Saquon Barkley -first game plan. It just so happens that Barkley is 268 yards shy of Eric Dickerson ’s single-season rushing record, while the Cowboys have surrendered the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points to running backs and third-most yards per carry (4.8). The Eagles feel heavily incentivized to saddle Barkley for a grandiose workload. … You’re on your own throwing darts at Eagles pass catchers with Pickett under center, but it’s mildly notable that A.J. Brown carries a massive 48% target share on Pickett’s 2024 attempts. It’s a free for all regarding the likes of DeVonta Smith and Grant Calcaterra . Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 13 Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva. Carolina @ Tampa Bay Team Totals: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 28 Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback in Week 16, Bryce Young has quietly tacked on 5.9 weekly rushing points over his last six starts including 29.3 yards per game. Cooper Rush ’s 8.3 yards per attempt (as the overall QB19) against Tampa Bay’s injury-riddled secondary coupled with the highest projected scoring environment (49.5) on Sunday leaves the light on for Young in Superflex leagues. … Chuba Hubbard got there with 87.8% (29) of Carolina’s backfield touches and two carries for 28 and 21 yards (and the ensuing game-winning touchdown) in overtime against the Cardinals but is plopped into a significantly tougher spot against this Bucs front seven that not only stuffed Hubbard for 12/43/0 in their last bout (in Week 13) but has not allowed a single RB to score 11 PPR points in five games out of their bye. Whereas Arizona ranks 27th in EPA/carry, Tampa Bay sits sixth. The only confident option to stack with Young, Adam Thielen led the Panthers in targets in four consecutive starts as a WR3/FLEX. Note that the Bucs have permitted the fourth-most per-week points (13.5) from the slot, where Thielen has run a team-high 76% of his routes upon returning from injury. … Xavier Legette , Jalen Coker , David Moore , and Thielen have been active together for one game (Week 15) all season, and it only lasted for two quarters before Legette was ruled out with hip/wrist injuries; Moore was the odd man out with a 21% route participation in those 30 minutes, per Fantasy Points Data . Coker’s 83-yard touchdown against the Cowboys was purely a coverage bust, leaving both him and Legette, the latter who’s expected to play in 2-WR sets, as thin WR5s for 12-team leagues. … Tommy Tremble (49% route rate) and Ja’Tavion Sanders (54%) have practically split reps the last three weeks in an unusable committee. Sanders hasn’t touched the ball since Week 12. Even in being sacked four times with one interception and fumble against Dallas, Baker Mayfield yet again tossed for 300 yards and finished as the overall QB7, registering a top-seven finish in nine out of 11 starts with Mike Evans . Sunday also presents a much softer matchup on paper: Carolina ranks dead last in pressure rate (24.5%) and Mayfield has stacked a league-high 32 passing touchdowns from a clean pocket — Lamar Jackson , for example, is second with 29. The only hang-up for Baker would be Carolina’s obvious inability to stop the run, limiting Jalen Hurts (108), Cooper Rush (214), and Kyler Murray (202) to less than 215 passing yards the past three weeks because it was so damn easy to #EstablishIt . … The last two times Bucky Irving practiced in full, he out-touched Rachaad White 28-12 and 19-10 including last week’s season-high 84.2% share of RB carries. Now off the injury report altogether (after White’s game-ending fumble), an overall RB1 finish is in Bucky’s range of outcomes. White’s double-digit touches in six consecutive games gift him a high RB3 floor. Mike Evans needs 91 YPG to reach his 1,000-yard quota for the 11th straight year, and the Bucs have to win out to make the postseason. For what it’s worth, Evans recorded 8/118/1 in his first game against the Panthers even with CB Jaycee Horn (hip, out) available. … Jalen McMillan ’s continued involvement as a WR3/FLEX with 23%, 23%, and 16.5% of the team’s targets the last three games (with at least one touchdown in all) is safe sans Sterling Shepard (hamstring/foot, out). The latter’s direct replacement, Ryan Miller , came off the bench for his highest route participation (48%) post-bye once Shepard was ruled out, qualifying as a viable TE exclusively on FanDuel for nearly being the stone minimum ($4,300) there. … 2023 fifth-rounder Payne Durham provided a five-catch floor on 16.2% of Tampa Bay’s targets in place of Cade Otton (knee, out) as an every-down streamer for managers who lost Brenton Strange or Stone Smartt to timeshares. Score Prediction: Bucs 31, Panthers 17 Tennessee @ Jacksonville Team Totals: Jaguars 20.5, Titans 19.5 Mason Rudolph has played four full games this season, logging weekly fantasy finishes of QB20, QB13, QB17, and QB19 in them. Yet Rudolph now squares off with a Jags defense surrendering league-high figures in yards per pass attempt (8.2) and QB rating (106.4). Rudolph is a cinch two-quarterback-league starter with DFS tournament appeal in stacks with Calvin Ridley and/or Chig Okonkwo . … Tony Pollard ’s (ankle) iffy health renders Tennessee’s backfield projection tough to figure after Tyjae Spears out-snapped Pollard 37 to 24 and out-touched Pollard 13 to 10 in Week 16’s loss to Indianapolis. Sunday’s matchup is obviously favorable; only Carolina has conceded more fantasy running back points than Jacksonville. I’m treating both Pollard and Spears as touch-and-go RB2 plays for Week 17. Rudolph’s 2024 targets: Calvin Ridley 43; Chig Okonkwo 33; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 20; Pollard 19; Tyler Boyd 15; Josh Whyle 14; Spears 11. … This is a #RevengeGame for Ridley against his 2023 team. The Jags have permitted the NFL’s third-most yards to wide receivers (2,614). … Okonkwo banked stat lines of 8/59/0 and 9/81/0 on target counts of 10 and 11 in Rudolph’s last two starts. Chig played a season-high 85% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in Week 16’s defeat. Jacksonville has coughed up the league’s 10th-most yards (855) and fourth-most TDs (7) to tight ends. … Westbrook-Ikhine remains the most touchdown-reliant wide receiver in the league. He’s averaging 3.0 targets over Tennessee’s last three games. Tennessee’s defense has fallen apart to the extent that Mac Jones is a start-worthy option in two-QB leagues. Allowing an average of 30.8 points over their last five games, the Titans placed top tackler MLB Kenneth Murray (wrist) on I.R. this week and may be without SS Amani Hooker (shoulder). Jones is fantasy’s QB19 over the last month. … Although Travis Etienne out-snapped Tank Bigsby 35 to 19 in Week 16’s loss to Vegas, Bigsby out-touched Etienne 13 to 11, and D’Ernest Johnson (19% snaps) was involved enough to cut into the usage of both. The good news is Jonathan Taylor showed last week that Tennessee’s defense is capable of being trampled (29/218/3 rushing, 7.5 YPC). The bad news is the Jags are stuck on a two-man backfield with near-equal projections for Etienne and Bigsby. Jones’ 2024 target distribution: Brian Thomas Jr. 59; Parker Washington 27; Brenton Strange 23; Etienne 18; Devin Duvernay 13; Bigsby 5. … Thomas has drawn double-digit targets in four straight games and is fantasy’s overall WR4 during that span. Based on his athleticism and ball skills, Thomas has a chance to develop into the best receiver in the league over the next few years. Even against a Titans defense yielding the NFL’s fewest fantasy points to wideouts, I’m keeping Thomas dialed in as a shoo-in WR1. … Strange suffered a shoulder injury, lost a fumble, and committed a drop in Week 16’s defeat, and wound up falling into a three-way TEBC with Luke Farrell and Josiah Deguara . The Titans have allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy TE points. … Washington led Jaguars pass catchers in Week 16 snaps played and routes run but has cleared 55 yards once all season, showing little to no upside. Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Titans 23 Miami @ Cleveland Team Totals: Dolphins 23, Browns 16.5 Sporting a sub-40-point total, Fins-Browns profiles as a low-scoring, fantasy-unfriendly affair. … Tua Tagovailoa is fantasy’s QB26 over the last two weeks. He may not have Jaylen Waddle (knee) again, and he is in danger of playing Sunday’s game in the Cleveland rain. It’s difficult to get excited about Tua’s box-score outlook this week. … Nothing stands out particularly positively about De’Von Achane ’s Week 17 matchup, but he’s played at least 66% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps in four consecutive games and averaged 19.3 touches for 101.3 yards and 0.75 TDs during that span. On the season, Achane leads all NFL running backs in catches (76), receiving yards (579), and receiving touchdowns (6). Arguably fantasy’s most non-injury disappointment, Tyreek Hill enters Week 17 ranked No. 18 in PPR receiver scoring. Sunday’s on-paper matchup is right — the Browns are missing No. 2 CB Greg Newsome (hamstring) and have served up the NFL’s 10th-most yards (2,365) and a league-high 22 touchdowns to enemy wideouts — yet Hill’s to-date production demotes him to WR2 valuation rather than the elite WR1 he was billed to be. … Waddle did return to limited practice at midweek, giving him a chance to face Cleveland. Waddle is likely still short of 100%, however, and has cleared 60 yards twice since Week 1. … Jonnu Smith is entrenched as an every-week TE1 lock. On the season, Smith ranks No. 6 among tight ends in targets (95), No. 4 in catches (76), No. 4 in yards (802), and No. 4 in TDs (6). Even after he mustered one scoring drive in Week 16’s start against Cincinnati’s swinging-gate defense, the Browns are sticking with Dorian Thompson-Robinson nearing the finish line of another lost year. DTR has played near-full games four times in his career. His weekly FF results in them are QB29, QB24, QB27, and QB30. That’s not even two-quarterback-league production. … Whereas D’Onta Foreman lost a fumble that led directly to a Bengals TD, Jerome Ford dominated Browns Week 16 backfield snaps (80%) while parlaying 16 touches into 131 yards and a touchdown. Cleveland’s Week 17 running back usage should belong to Ford against a Fins defense missing run-stopping MLB Anthony Walker (knee). … Dating back to last season, DTR’s go-to guy has been David Njoku . Yet Njoku (knee) isn’t practicing this week, while backup Jordan Akins has failed to deliver in Njoku’s four 2024 absences. … Whereas the opposite was true with Jameis Winston at QB, I want no part of Jerry Jeudy , Elijah Moore , or Cedric Tillman with Thompson-Robinson at the controls. Score Prediction: Dolphins 23, Browns 10 Green Bay @ Minnesota Team Totals: Vikings 25, Packers 24 Week 17’s third-highest-totaled game, Packers-Vikings will be played beneath Minneapolis’ U.S. Bank Stadium dome in a matchup that should dictate typically run-heavy Green Bay spiking its pass rate. Minnesota has maintained league-best run defense over the course of the year but has allowed the NFL’s third-most passing yards (4,043) and seventh-most 20+ yard completions (49), amounting to a pass-funnel unit. Sacked just four times in his last eight games, I’m viewing this as a breakout spot for Jordan Love . … Josh Jacobs ’ matchup is obviously unideal, but his legs should be fresh after the Packers rested Jacobs for most of Week 16’s blowout win over New Orleans, and he’s still averaging 22.1 touches over his last eight appearances. Jacobs is a volume-driven RB1 play against Minnesota. Box-score expectations for Packers pass catchers should elevate based on matchup and environment; Green Bay projects to throw more than usual. In a potential track meet, I’m dialing up Jayden Reed as an upside WR2/3 plus Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as raised-ceiling WR3/flex plays. The Vikings have allowed NFL highs in catches (224) and yards (2,850) to wide receivers. … Another beneficiary of Green Bay increasing its pass rate would be Tucker Kraft , who is fantasy’s TE10 over the past five weeks. He’s a low-end TE1. On an absolute heater, Sam Darnold is fantasy’s QB3 with a 15:1 TD-to-INT ratio and an additional rushing score over the last six weeks. The Packers don’t present a friendly QB draw, but Darnold offers matchup-proof appeal indoors with his supporting cast at full health. … This is a #RevengeGame for Aaron Jones , who tagged the Packers for 139 total yards when these teams met in Week 4. Jones played 82% of the Vikings’ Week 16 snaps and should continue to be a full-time player here as Minnesota jostles for playoff seeding. Historical Justin Jefferson -versus- Jaire Alexander results feel irrelevant considering the Packers have a first-year defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley , and Jefferson dusted Green Bay for 6/85/1 receiving on eight targets in Week 4; yet Alexander didn’t even play. … Jordan Addison cooked the Packers for 3/72/1 receiving on four targets in Week 4. Addison’s per-game target average is up to 8.7 over his last six appearances. … T.J. Hockenson draws the softest on-paper matchup among Vikings pass catchers; Green Bay has yielded the NFL’s seventh-most receptions (85) and seventh-most receiving yards (892) to tight ends this year. Score Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 24 Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva. Sunday Night Football Atlanta @ Washington Team Totals: Falcons 21.5, Commanders 25 Rain and wind threaten any ceiling here after No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. did exactly as the organization asked of him in his debut, eating zero sacks (on nine pressures) and completing 5-of-8 passes 10 yards downfield for 11.3 yards per attempt; his only interception can be attributed entirely to Kyle Pitts, who not only volleyed a would-be TD into an interception but, to make matters worse, probably reminded owner Arthur Blank in that very moment that he was drafted over Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell . Although we’ve ticked the pass rate of both teams down in our projections, there’s meat on the bone here for Penix in Superflex leagues given Washington’s 20 completions (ninth) and league-high 10 touchdowns ged on throws 20 yards deep. … Atlanta controls their own destiny atop the NFC South after they swept the Bucs during the regular season, feeling a-OK if any inclement weather forces the ball into BIjan Robinson ’s hands: Washington’s allowed the most yards before contact per attempt (2.43) and 4.82 yards per carry (fourth) from the ground. A run-heavy game script on Northwest Stadium’s abysmal grass could additionally boost Tyler Allgeier for more carries than perceived. Drake London’s ailing hamstring is presumably an afterthought, leading the Falcons in targets (8) from Penix before he was injured. Washington has been far more susceptible from the slot (10th in weekly points) to receivers than out wide (25th), and London most recently led the team in routes run from the middle of the field before he was forced to leave. … Darnell Mooney ’s ceiling is tied to Penix’s given the former’s four (out of six) targets earned 10 yards downfield. Marshon Lattimore ’s absence (hamstring) opens the door for Mooney to run free over the top as a WR3/4 and potential slate-breaking Showdown play. … On one hand, Ray-Ray McCloud earned a target and eight-yard carry on the team’s opening drive against New York. On the other hand, three of his four targets came when London left the field. … Pitts’ 52% route participation in Week 16 was his second-lowest mark of the year, taking a real leap of faith to trust him (exclusively for one-game tournaments) following his disastrous turnover; Charlie Woerner ran seven routes (23%) behind him. Jayden Daniels cemented Offensive Rookie of the Year in his five-touchdown performance over the Eagles and now benefits against a Falcons defense that’s permitted the eighth-most points per game (21.7) to enemy QBs including 5.2 weekly carries (fifth). Daniels’ floor-ceiling combo in this matchup entrenches him as a QB1 regardless of the weather. … Brian Robinson Jr. ’s two fumbles in Week 16 did not deter him from leading this backfield in carries (10), touches (12), and routes run (24) ahead of both Jeremy McNichols (6/18/0 from scrimmage) and Chris Rodriguez (3/5/0) as Washington’s only viable back. Nearly a touchdown favorite at home sans Austin Ekeler (concussion, I.R.), B-Rob is logically a touch-based RB2 for projected game script ahead of both (whom are merely darts in one-game slates). The first player in franchise history — a group consisting of Art Monk, Gary Clark, Ricky Sanders, Santana Moss, DeSean Jackson, and Charley Taylor among others — to record five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, Terry McLaurin additionally passed Sanders for the organization’s most in a single season. Fortunately, the Falcons have leaked the fifth-most fantasy points (24) to McLaurin’s position. … Dyami Brown ’s absence with a hamstring injury pins Olamide Zaccheaus in his place from the boundary where Atlanta is one of only two defenses getting smoked for 17+ points per game. The slot, where Jamison Crowder ran 82% of his routes last week, is the area of the field the Falcons have been lukewarm in covering (as No. 16 in per-game points allowed there). … A full-time player the moment he cleared the concussion protocol, Zach Ertz ran a route on 67% of dropbacks against Philly but blamed his one-catch outing on the shoulder injury he’s since practiced in full through. The 34-year-old veteran earned at least six targets in five out of six starts before exiting early in Week 15 as a high-floor streamer with Noah and Dyami Brown ’s targets vacated around him. Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Falcons 16 Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva. Monday Night Football Detroit @ San Francisco Team Totals: Lions 27, 49ers 23.5 Buckle up. It’s a true litmus test for Jared Goff and the Lions after he completed 60.9% of his passes (his second-lowest mark of 2023) in this very same matchup during the Conference Championship last year. When kept clean in that game, he unsurprisingly went 22-of-28 for 8.8 yards per attempt and one score. When pressured, however, Goff crumbled in completing just 3-of-13 passes for 2 YPA (!!!) and two sacks. All-Pro EDGE Nick Bosa returned from injury to hound Matthew Stafford, a similar pocket sloth, on 45% of his dropbacks two weeks ago. … Let’s not waste too much time here: there are no holes to poke in Jahmyr Gibbs’ outlook sans David Montgomery (knee), out-touching the rest of Detroit’s backfield 20 to 4 in the first half against Chicago before the Lions ran away. Kyren Williams (31/112/0 from scrimmage) and De’Von Achane (23/190/1) drowned the Niners despite Bosa’s presence the past two games. Amon-Ra St. Brown has recently been shoved 30.5% and 25% of Detroit’s targets with Montgomery unavailable. He’s a WR1 in season-long leagues (because, simply put, he’s the Sun God) regardless of any on-paper discouragement: the Niners suffocate slot receivers to the second-fewest points per game (8.9), at the very least bringing Amon-Ra’s ceiling into question for Showdown. … Jameson Williams’ lone performance earning less than 16.7% of the team’s targets post-injury — a full seven-game stretch — came against a Bills secondary ranked 18th in 20-yard catches (19). For what it’s worth, SF did not allow a single 20-yard catch to the Dolphins last week. … Tim Patrick ’s 3.1% target share in Chicago was notably his lowest in the last month without Kalif Raymond (I.R.), who’s already been ruled out for Monday. Patrick saw 8.8% < 17.1% < 13.6% of Detroit’s targets in three performances leading into that one. … San Francisco’s streak of holding every TE to less than 70 yards is in danger without LB Dre Greenlaw (calf), logically elevating Sam LaPorta on paper. His 11.6% target share (23rd at his position) through Week 10 is a moot point given his increased 17.3% share (12th) since returning from injury. The market has much more confidence in Brock Purdy and San Francisco’s offense than any fantasy manager who’s watched them try to move the ball at any point this season; even Miami held the Niners to a 40% TD rate inside the red zone with one whiffed FG. With both LT Trent Williams (personal) and G Aaron Banks (MCL sprain) done for the year, Purdy’s low-end QB1 outlook hinges entirely on this projected 50.5-point total. … Removed from the team’s injury report altogether, a friendly reminder Isaac Guerendo out-touched Patrick Taylor Jr. 37 to 1 while they were available together in their last two games for Christian McCaffrey. Whereas Detroit would usually be a blanket statement “don’t play this guy against them” kinda defense, their injuries have clearly caught up to them in allowing James Cook (15/133/2) and Josh Jacobs (18/66/3) to run wild before D’Andre Swift perenially struggled (12/53/0). Ignore Jauan Jennings’ 15% target share in Miami: he’d earned at least 20.7% of San Francisco’s targets in six consecutive starts before the pendulum swinging back in favor of Deebo Samuel , who was gifted his most raw touches (12) since the season opener (13). With 12 carries the past three games (and a 22.5% target share in his last two), Deebo projects neck-and-neck (albeit slightly behind in usage) with Jennings as WR2s. … Video evidence showed 49ers WRs coach Leonard Hankerson chewing out No. 31 overall pick Ricky Pearsall on the sideline for multiple penalties against Miami despite the latter’s most receptions (4) since Week 10. If Deebo’s carries were to regress due to Guerendo’s return, Pearsall could mirror him in one-game slates. … If Dalton Kincaid (4/53/0) and Cole Kmet (2/9/1) can spike production against your LBs, than anyone can. See George Kittle , whose only performance outside the top-12 tight ends was the team’s snow game against Buffalo. Score Prediction: Lions 28, 49ers 17…
LAC @ NE | DEN @ CIN | ARI @ LAR Saturday Tripleheader 1:00 PM ET Game L.A. Chargers @ New England Team Totals: Chargers 23, Patriots 19 The Chargers visit Foxboro with Justin Herbert having finished below 18 standard-league fantasy points in four of his last five starts and L.A.’s rushing attack positioned for success with Gus Edwards coming off his season-best game, J.K. Dobbins (knee) potentially set to play for the first time since Week 12, and New England missing star DT Christian Barmore (reserve/NFI, blood clots). Over the past two weeks, Cardinals and Bills RBs clocked the Pats for a combined 47/289/3 (6.1 YPC) rushing line. I’m not sure how L.A.’s backfield will shake out in terms of touch distribution — especially if Dobbins returns — but the Bolts are set up for run-game efficiency here. I’m anticipating a limited-volume game for Herbert. Another running-game plus for Los Angeles is the likely return of stud blocking TE Will Dissly , who missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Dissly coming back would also delete Stone Smartt ’s fantasy relevance. … A rock-solid WR2, Ladd McConkey was fantasy’s WR17 in PPR points per game in Weeks 11-16. Since McConkey runs nearly 70% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez on the vast majority of Saturday’s pass plays. … Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer rounded out Los Angeles’ three-receiver sets in Week 16’s win over Denver. They are likelier candidates for Gonzalez’s coverage in a game where the Chargers figure to feature their rushing attack. Drake Maye hasn’t hit 20 standard-league fantasy points since Week 7. The Chargers are yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest QB rating (86.9) while ranking No. 7 in sacks (42). Already beleaguered on the offensive line, the Pats may be without C Ben Brown (concussion). I’m approaching Maye as a two-quarterback-league starter but low-end streamer option. … Rhamondre Stevenson committed his NFL-high seventh fumble of the year in Week 16’s loss to Buffalo and should have been charged with his eighth, only for scorekeepers to attribute it to Maye. Afterwards, HC Jerod Mayo suggested Stevenson’s ball insecurity could cost him his starting job in favor of Antonio Gibson . The Chargers have permitted the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Patriots ran a finite three-receiver package of Kayshon Boutte , Kendrick Bourne , and Pop Douglas in Week 16’s defeat with Boutte leading the way in snaps (88%), targets (7), and production (5/95/1). No New England wideout has proven box-score trustworthy over the course of the year, but these three are playable on Saturday-only three-game slates. … This is a #RevengeGame for Hunter Henry against the team that drafted him. The Bolts have coughed up the NFL’s 11th-most catches to tight ends (80). … Austin Hooper is worth a look in Saturday-only DFS averaging 48.8 receiving yards over the Pats’ last six games. Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 20 4:30 PM ET Game Denver @ Cincinnati Team Totals: Bengals 26.5, Broncos 23 This is a premium spot for Denver’s offense facing a Bengals team surrendering the NFL’s fifth-most points (26.2 PPG) while missing starting DLs Sam Hubbard (knee) and Sheldon Rankins (illness) plus MLB Logan Wilson (knee, I.R.). Still fantasy’s overall QB9 on the year, Bo Nix is a confident QB1 at Cincinnati in Week 17’s second-highest-totaled game. … The Broncos’ backfield remains a mess with HC Sean Payton saying one-dimensional rookie Audric Estime has earned more opportunities, Javonte Williams still heavily involved in passing situations, scatback Jaleel McLaughlin due back from his quad injury, and early-season big-play threat Tyler Badie (back) activated off I.R. This is a touch-and-go RBBC. Denver’s elite pass protection plus Cincy’s lack of pass-rush production — the Bengals rank bottom six in sacks (30) — should ensure Nix dwells in a clean pocket, allowing Courtland Sutton to make plays downfield. Cincinnati has given up the NFL’s 10th-most 20+ yard completions (45) and fifth-most connections of 40+ (9). … The Broncos continue to run a four-way rotation at Nos. 2-5 wide receiver involving Devaughn Vele , Marvin Mims Jr. , Troy Franklin , and Lil’Jordan Humphrey . None of them exceeded five targets in Week 16’s loss to the Chargers. They’re all dart throws on Saturday-only DFS slates. (I’m typically siding with Vele if forced to choose.) … The Broncos are also wielding a fantasy-unfriendly committee at tight end composed of Adam Trautman , Lucas Krull , and Nate Adkins . In Week 16’s win over Cleveland, Joe Burrow became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 250+ yards and three-plus TDs in seven straight games, breaking Tom Brady ’s record (6). I’m approaching Burrow as a matchup-proof, elite QB1 whose Week 17 outlook is propped up by Saturday’s potential shootout. … Chase Brown played a career-high 98% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps in last Sunday’s victory and is fantasy’s RB5 since Week 9. Colts and Chargers RBs combined to clock Denver for 43/205/2 (4.8 YPC) rushing over the last two weeks. The Broncos have also surrendered the NFL’s seventh-most catches to running backs (77), while Brown ranks fifth at his position in receptions (50) on the year. Especially with Broncos No. 2 CB Riley Moss due back from his three-week knee injury, Burrow’s biggest Week 17 obstacle is a loaded Denver pass defense headlined by DPOY candidate Patrick Surtain holding enemy WRs to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points. The Broncos only sporadically utilize Surtain to shadow opposing No. 1 wideouts, while Ja’Marr Chase is on a Triple Crown mission leading the NFL in receptions by a seven-catch margin, maintaining a 123 receiving-yards lead, and having scored four more receiving TDs than anyone else in the league. … In per-game PPR points, Tee Higgins is fantasy’s overall WR13 since coming off injury in Week 11. He’s a bet-on-talent WR2 play versus Denver. … Bengals No. 3 WR Andrei Iosivas profiles as a touchdown-or-bust option on Saturday-only DFS slates. … Mike Gesicki has hit paydirt in one of 15 appearances this year, and his target totals over Cincinnati’s last five games are 2, 5, 3, 4, and 2. He isn’t a realistic TE1 streamer. Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Broncos 23 8:15 PM ET Game Arizona @ L.A. Rams Team Totals: Rams 27, Cardinals 20.5 Eliminated from playoff contention following Week 16’s loss to Carolina, the Cards placed starting OTs Paris Johnson (knee) and Jonah Williams (knee) on I.R. this week and profile as an attack target for the Rams’ D/ST. As the strength of Los Angeles’ defense is its front four, Kyler Murray figures to experience heavy duress on Saturday night. … James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) were limited participants in early-week practice, suggesting both could be active against a middling Rams run defense. Without anything left to play for, it’s fair to wonder if the Cardinals might lean more into Benson, the 66th overall pick in 2024’s draft. A proven commodity, Conner will turn 30 before the start of next season. Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared 65 yards in two of 15 games. He did clap these same Rams for 4/130/2 receiving in Week 2, while L.A. has let up the 10th-most fantasy WR points over the course of the year. … The Rams have permitted the NFL’s 10th-most catches (82) and ninth-most receiving yards (858) to tight ends. This is a cinch spot for Trey McBride . … Cardinals No. 2 WR Michael Wilson has gone 10 consecutive games without clearing 60 yards. Even after back-to-back slow box-score efforts against the 49ers (weather) and Jets (game flow), I’m going right back to Matthew Stafford as an upside QB1 starter Saturday night versus the Cardinals. Arizona has coughed up the league’s third-highest completion rate (69.8%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), and sixth-highest passer rating (97.6). The Rams didn’t list a single player on Week 17’s injury report. … Re-establishing himself as the fulcrum of L.A.’s offense, Kyren Williams is averaging 28.7 touches, 112.7 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns over the Rams’ last three games. Williams is a home-favorite bellcow RB facing a Cardinals defense surrendering the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy running back points. Puka Nacua has caught at least seven passes in seven of his last nine appearances and is fantasy’s overall WR3 behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown since returning from injury in Week 8. … Nacua has clearly separated from Cooper Kupp as Los Angeles’ No. 1 receiver, but I’m going right back to Kupp as a WR2 in an environment where his QB should thrive. … The Rams are now running a four-man tight end weave involving Tyler Higbee , Colby Parkinson , Hunter Long , and Davis Allen . It’s a fantasy situation to avoid. Score Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 17…
Wednesday Christmas Day Doubleheader 1:00 PM ET Game Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Team Totals: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20 On their third game in 11 days, the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh with Patrick Mahomes having netted fantasy’s QB8 score over his last five starts while getting back field-stretching WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) against a Steelers defense likely missing top CB Joey Porter Jr. (calf/knee). Mahomes’ protection remains a big concern; Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate (23%), while Pittsburgh has generated the NFL’s second-most QB knockdowns (60). I’m valuing Mahomes in low-end QB1 territory. … Kareem Hunt has stayed (slightly) ahead of Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City’s backfield order by churning out consistent gains; over the past two weeks, Hunt has parlayed 27 touches into 128 yards and a touchdown versus Pacheco’s 24/36/0 result. The Steelers present a below-average fantasy running back matchup, rendering both Hunt and Pacheco TD-dependent flex options. Operating as Mahomes’ No. 1 wideout lately, Xavier Worthy has played 80% or more of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in three straight games and handled 16 touches over the last two. Asked about Worthy this week, OC Matt Nagy likened his progress to Rashee Rice ’s as a rookie. In fantasy, Worthy remains a boom-bust WR3/flex pick. … Marquise Brown ranked fifth among Chiefs WRs in snaps in his first game back but drew eight targets, second most on the team. Among Kansas City wideouts, I’m valuing Worthy in his own top tier while approaching Brown, DeAndre Hopkins , Justin Watson , and JuJu Smith-Schuster as low-ceiling rotational players. … Pittsburgh has coughed up the league’s seventh-most catches to tight ends (83), keeping Travis Kelce relevant and elevating Noah Gray ’s sleeper appeal. Russell Wilson has finished below 20 fantasy points in six of eight starts since taking over for Justin Fields , while Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest passer rating (87.9). Wilson is a poor two-QB-league play. … Jaylen Warren passed Najee Harris as Pittsburgh’s main back over the Steelers’ last two games; Warren out-snapped Harris 63 to 31 and out-touched him 22 to 16 during that span. Yet no NFL team has permitted fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Chiefs this season. Steelers No. 1 WR George Pickens (hamstring) appears ticketed to return from his three-game absence. In Weeks 7-13 — the period in which Wilson started for the Steelers and Pickens was healthy — Pickens was fantasy’s overall WR11 in per-game PPR scoring. … With Pickens due back, Calvin Austin , Van Jefferson , and Mike Williams check in as dart-throw plays on Wednesday-only two-game DFS tournament slates. … Pat Freiermuth is a matchup-driven TE1 streamer facing a Chiefs defense yielding the NFL’s third-most catches (94) and a league-high 1,090 receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Chiefs 20 4:30 PM ET Game Baltimore @ Houston Team Totals: Ravens 26, Texans 20.5 Lamar Jackson visits Houston’s retractable NRG Stadium dome to face a Texans defense missing FS Jimmie Ward (foot) and SS Jalen Pitre (shoulder) while permitting the league’s ninth-most fantasy quarterback points. Jackson leads the NFL in completions of 40+ yards (13); Houston has conceded the league’s third-most 40+ yard completions (10). … Over his last four games, Derrick Henry is averaging 21.5 touches for 126.8 yards without a single score, suggesting Henry is due for positive-touchdown regression here. Ravens No. 2 RB Justice Hill (concussion) seems unlikely to be active against the Texans. Zay Flowers profiles as a high-floor, questionable-ceiling WR2 play at Houston having collected six-plus targets in eight straight games yet nursing a shoulder injury. … Rashod Bateman has exceeded 80 yards in one of 15 appearances, while the Texans have yielded the NFL’s 10th-most yards to wide receivers (2,318). … Nelson Agholor ’s (concussion) Week 17 availability is to be determined. Tylan Wallace was Baltimore’s next man up in Agholor’s Week 16 absence, yet Wallace ran only six pass routes and wasn’t even targeted against Pittsburgh. … Mark Andrews is fantasy’s overall TE6 since Week 6, while Week 17 foe Houston is missing both starting safeties. … Isaiah Likely is a TD-dependent streamer. C.J. Stroud enters Week 17 having scored 18 fantasy points or fewer in nine straight starts now at risk of missing C Juice Scruggs (foot) and RG Shaq Mason (knee). Stroud’s box-score outlook is dismal after he lost best friend Tank Dell to a debilitating Week 16 knee injury. … As usual, Joe Mixon is a volume-driven RB2 play with RB1 upside facing a Ravens defense surrendering the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy running back points. Houston’s OL injuries further complicate Mixon’s projection. He still stands to flirt with 20 touches. Nico Collins is Saturday’s premier box-score play facing a Ravens defense permitting the NFL’s fifth-most catches (199), fourth-most receiving yards (2,579), and sixth-most receiving TDs (17). … The Texans claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers from the Ravens after losing Tank Dell (ACL/dislocated kneecap), but Johnson can’t be expected to make an immediate impact. … Robert Woods has cleared 20 yards in just one of 13 games. … John Metchie has drawn four targets or fewer in 10 of 11 appearances. Metchie is allegedly now battling a shoulder injury. … Dalton Schultz is TE1 streamable against the Ravens, who’ve given up the NFL’s seventh-most catches (83) and seventh-most receiving yards (880) to tight ends. Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 17…
Thursday Night Football Seattle @ Chicago Team Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Bears 20 Geno Smith squares off in Week 17 with a Bears defense permitting the NFL’s second-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) and fourth-most 20+ yard completions (53). Geno ranks top 10 in the league in 20+ yard completions (45) and 13th among QBs in fantasy scoring. Assuming the Solder Field weather cooperates, this is a get-right spot for the Seahawks’ aggressive downfield-challenging signal-caller. … Kenneth Walker resumed Seahawks lead-back duties in Week 16’s loss to Minnesota but suffered an ankle injury on top of his preexisting calf strain and appears unlikely to face Chicago. No longer listed with the oblique injury that limited him last Sunday, Zach Charbonnet looks like a Thursday night smash against a Bears defense enemy running backs have carved for 4.8 yards per carry and 152.4 total yards per game. Charbonnet’s touch counts in his four 2024 starts are 19, 21, 29, and 9. Charbonnet offers RB1 bellcow potential in the event Walker indeed sits. Geno’s 2024 targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 122; DK Metcalf 99; Tyler Lockett 66; Walker 53; Noah Fant 49; Charbonnet 46. … Geno and Smith-Njigba have developed a tight bond; over their last six games, Geno is 43-of-51 passing (87%) for 521 yards (10.2 YPT) and three TDs when targeting JSN. … An underachiever and subpar ball winner, Metcalf has exceeded 70 receiving yards once since Week 4. I’m still siding with Metcalf as an upside WR2 play against a Bears defense that’s hemorrhaging deep pass completions as mentioned above. … Lockett has drawn four targets or fewer in eight straight games. … Fant warrants TE1 streamer attention; Chicago has conceded the NFL’s sixth-most yards to tight ends (909). Caleb Williams will face Seattle missing LT Braxton Jones (broken ankle) and probably LG Teven Jenkins (calf) in an otherwise positive draw after Sam Darnold (QB9), Jordan Love (QB12), and Kyler Murray (QB10) registered favorable FF results against the Seahawks in Weeks 14-16. I’m approaching Williams as a fringe QB1/2 here. … The Seahawks present a middling matchup for running backs, while Bears lead RB D’Andre Swift has gone eight straight games without netting 100 total yards and is now missing nearly half of his O-Line. Keenan Allen looks like an old man on the field but is fantasy’s overall WR6 since Week 12. Thriving on instincts and volume, Allen has drawn eight-plus targets in six of his last eight appearances. He’s a WR2 starter versus Seattle. … D.J. Moore topped 100 receiving yards five times last season. This year, he’s done so twice. Deemed a team captain, Moore’s body language has been rough, and his on-field production inconsistent. As the Seahawks have allowed the NFL’s 13th-most fantasy wide receiver points, Moore still warrants WR2/3 valuation. … Rome Odunze has cleared 80 yards in two of 15 games. He’s a WR3/flex option here. … Cole Kmet has drawn four targets or fewer in eight of his last nine appearances. Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Bears 23…
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