Beyond the Aid Cliff: Dr. Julius Sindi on What Comes After the Donor Exit

DevelopmentAid Dialogues

The age of abundant Western aid is ending—and this time, no rebound is guaranteed. In this episode of the DevelopmentAid Dialogues podcast, host Hisham Allam speaks with Dr. Julius Kirimi Sindi, a systems innovator and director of the Gates Foundation–backed Catalyze Impact Initiative, about how global development must adapt before it unravels. Drawing from decades of leadership in African research and reform, Sindi argues that this funding shift isn’t just financial—it’s existential.

“We are seeing simultaneous crises,” he said. “Geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, and rising populism make aid less politically palatable.” Citing Executive Order 14169 in the U.S., UK aid cuts, and shrinking European budgets, he warned, “Unlike the past periods, today local institutions face digital competition and political issues they’ve never had to navigate before.”

Why did so few see it coming? “Old patterns are very difficult to change,” he explained. “There’s been a culture of dependence… many assumed the big donors would always be there.” Instead of preparing for blended finance and sustainability, “most defaulted to grant-writing marathons.”

Sindi believes the real test is organizational mindset. “In a VUCA world—volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous—five-year strategic plans are a suicide note,” he said. “Development organizations must decentralize, scenario-plan, and build feedback loops.” The challenge, he added, is cultural: “Most systems reward people who conform, not those who adapt.”

On alternative funding, he is both candid and cautious. Private foundations like Gates or Rockefeller “are great at providing seed funding,” he noted, “but when it comes to scaling up, they’re not good at that.” As for impact investors? “It’s a mismatch in language and mindset,” Sindi explained. “They want monetization, risk mitigation—nonprofits speak of activities and outputs, not unit costs and return on investment.”

One of his clearest lessons: financial credibility matters.

“Only 10% of donor money actually reaches local organizations,” he revealed. “We found the main problem is not visibility—it’s governance and systems. But when these organizations get certified, most reach gold or platinum level.”

His work has helped over 120 institutions earn Good Financial Grant Practice credentials.

Still, survival isn’t just about certifications. It’s also about narrative. “The biggest problem in the Global South is we do not know how to tell our stories,” he said. “When stories are told by others, there is miscommunication. There is loss in translation.”

For those feeling overwhelmed, he had one final piece of advice:

“Stop writing new proposals for 48 hours. Scan your governance, your impact, your visibility. Then build a brand that shows who you are, what you stand for—and why someone should invest in your dream.”

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