Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Player FM - Internet Radio Done Right

162 subscribers

اضافه شده در thirty-eight هفته پیش

محتوای ارائه شده توسط Patrick McKenzie. تمام محتوای پادکست شامل قسمت‌ها، گرافیک‌ها و توضیحات پادکست مستقیماً توسط Patrick McKenzie یا شریک پلتفرم پادکست آن‌ها آپلود و ارائه می‌شوند. اگر فکر می‌کنید شخصی بدون اجازه شما از اثر دارای حق نسخه‌برداری شما استفاده می‌کند، می‌توانید روندی که در اینجا شرح داده شده است را دنبال کنید.https://fa.player.fm/legal

In Her Ellement

1
Navigating Career Pivots and Grit with Milo’s Avni Patel Thompson 26:18

28 روز پیش26:18

پخش در آینده

لیست ها

پسندیدن

دوست داشته شد

26:18

How do you know when it’s time to make your next big career move? With International Women’s Day around the corner, we are excited to feature Avni Patel Thompson, Founder and CEO of Milo. Avni is building technology that directly supports the often overlooked emotional and logistical labor that falls on parents—especially women. Milo is an AI assistant designed to help families manage that invisible load more efficiently. In this episode, Avni shares her journey from studying chemistry to holding leadership roles at global brands like Adidas and Starbucks, to launching her own ventures. She discusses how she approaches career transitions, the importance of unpleasant experiences, and why she’s focused on making everyday life easier for parents. [01:26] Avni's University Days and Early Career [04:36] Non-Linear Career Paths [05:16] Pursuing Steep Learning Curves [11:51] Entrepreneurship and Safety Nets [15:22] Lived Experiences and Milo [19:55] Avni’s In Her Ellement Moment [20:03] Reflections Links: Avni Patel Thompson on LinkedIn Suchi Srinivasan on LinkedIn Kamila Rakhimova on LinkedIn Ipsos report on the future of parenting About In Her Ellement: In Her Ellement highlights the women and allies leading the charge in digital, business, and technology innovation. Through engaging conversations, the podcast explores their journeys—celebrating successes and acknowledging the balance between work and family. Most importantly, it asks: when was the moment you realized you hadn’t just arrived—you were truly in your element? About The Hosts: Suchi Srinivasan is an expert in AI and digital transformation. Originally from India, her career includes roles at trailblazing organizations like Bell Labs and Microsoft. In 2011, she co-founded the Cleanweb Hackathon, a global initiative driving IT-powered climate solutions with over 10,000 members across 25+ countries. She also advises Women in Cloud, aiming to create $1B in economic opportunities for women entrepreneurs by 2030. Kamila Rakhimova is a fintech leader whose journey took her from Tajikistan to the U.S., where she built a career on her own terms. Leveraging her English proficiency and international relations expertise, she discovered the power of microfinance and moved to the U.S., eventually leading Amazon's Alexa Fund to support underrepresented founders. Subscribe to In Her Ellement on your podcast app of choice to hear meaningful conversations with women in digital, business, and technology.…

حدود یک سال پیش 1:44:19

MP3•خانه قسمت

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation.

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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/

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Sponsors: Safebase

Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast

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Links:

Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boom
The Diff https://diff.substack.com
Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/
The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473
Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg

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Twitter:
@byrnehobart
@patio11

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation
(01:08) Economic growth and productivity
(04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D
(07:31) The role of government and private sector
(13:42) Sponsor: Check
(14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution
(20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency
(27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment
(31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis
(32:32) Google’s strategic fiber investments
(32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube’s rise
(35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath
(44:06) The housing bubble
(49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity
(52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth
(54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments
(01:00:22) Crypto
(01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto
(01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models
(01:08:55) Crypto’s impact on financial systems
(01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology
(01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom
(01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation
(01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements
(01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking
(01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom’
(01:42:57) Wrap

36 قسمت

#Trading #Business #Patrick McKenzie #Technology #Finance #Government #Software #Incentive #Culture #Tech

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

162 subscribers

published حدود یک سال پیش

اشتراک گذاری

MP3•خانه قسمت

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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/

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Sponsors: Safebase

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Links:

Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boom
The Diff https://diff.substack.com
Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/
The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473
Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg

–

Twitter:
@byrnehobart
@patio11

36 قسمت

#Trading #Business #Patrick McKenzie #Technology #Finance #Government #Software #Incentive #Culture #Tech

همه قسمت ها

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
No, poor people aren’t funding your credit card rewards 1:06:47

۴ روز پیش1:06:47

1:06:47

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) challenges a recent Atlantic article claiming that low-income cardholders subsidize credit card rewards through high interest payments. Drawing from his Bits About Money essay Anatomy of a credit card rewards program, Patrick explains that rewards are primarily funded by interchange fees paid by merchants, not by interest charges. To the extent those interchange is passed along to customers, it falls mostly on rich customers, because rich customers spend more. They spend more in interchange than they earn in rewards. Issuing banks and researchers who have looked at the data mostly agree here. Patrick also breaks down the credit card rewards game, showing how banks strategically design card offerings for different market segments and explains the portfolio mathematics that disprove the cross-subsidization narrative. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/credit-card-rewards-interchange/ – Sponsor: Vanta Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Recommended in this episode: Bits about money: Anatomy of credit card rewards programs https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/anatomy-of-credit-card-rewards-programs/ The Atlantic: There Are Two Kinds of Credit Cards by Annie Lowrey https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/03/credit-card-racket/682075/ Complex Systems episode with Gary Leff https://open.spotify.com/episode/1QqFw5hlHKRrjRUTVLfKRV?si=hNwbnyrmQiqHe9ziAnGCpQ Complex Systems episode with Dave Guarino https://open.spotify.com/episode/0UlTIRosmjtvpcdHQ7t2tK?si=i8LYGS-iSfOoGsVmMFYWjA – Timestamps: (00:31) A recent Atlantic article's false thesis (09:35) Rebating interchange to earn share of wallet (14:48) Sponsor: Vanta (16:56) Why isn’t every card a rewards card? (27:56) The complexity spectrum of rewards products (29:55) A fun rabbit hole about credit card acceptance (33:53) Back to more complicated cases (45:45) Further refinements in cat and mouse games (51:24) Giving the customer more choices more frequently (58:10) More directions to go in (01:01:54) Patrick’s counterproposal…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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Points, profits, and packed planes, with Gary Leff 1:31:27

11 روز پیش1:31:27

1:31:27

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Gary Leff, the author of "View from the Wing", to discuss the economic systems behind airlines and loyalty programs. They discuss how airlines manage to stay profitable despite razor-thin margins, the economics of frequent flyer programs, and why these programs often generate more value than the airlines themselves. The conversation explores why many irrational airline policies reflect deeper economic realities and competitive constraints that shape flying today. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gary-leff-frequent-flier-programs/ – Sponsor: Vanta Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Recommended in this episode: View From The Wing https://viewfromthewing.com/ Bits About Money: How credit cards make money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/how-credit-cards-make-money/ – Twitter: @patio11 @garyleff – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:10) History of airline loyalty programs (04:36) The economics of airline loyalty programs (08:01) Parallels and differences with hotel loyalty programs (14:01) Tax implications and legal considerations (19:50) Sponsor: Vanta (21:08) Tax implications and legal considerations (part 2) (34:02) Credit card reward programs (46:56) The David Dao incident and its impact on airline policies (47:29) Airline compensation strategies and Delta’s unique approach (49:08) The economics of airline miles and accounting practices (53:15) Airline debt and the role of frequent flyer programs (55:21) The impact of airline policies on customer loyalty (01:08:11) The value of partner miles and airline alliances (01:13:11) Creative ways to earn miles and exploit promotions (01:20:05) The infamous coin promotion and other mileage hacks (01:30:39) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Tax the dirt, with Lars Doucet & Greg Miller 1:17:07

18 روز پیش1:17:07

1:17:07

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Lars Doucet and Greg Miller, co-founders who have just launched the Center for Land Economics, to discuss improving property taxation in the US. They explore how shifting taxes from buildings to land could transform development patterns, why California's property tax caps coincide with its housing crisis, and how the fundamental trade-off between assessment accuracy and consistency creates winners and losers. The conversation also covers the posting-to-policy pipeline, their work developing open-source tools to improve assessment equity, and techniques citizens can use to influence their local assessment office. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/tax-the-dirt-with-lars-doucet-greg-miller/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Recommended in this episode: Center for Land Economics: https://landeconomics.org/ Game of Rent by Lars Doucet: https://gameofrent.com/ Progress & Poverty: https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/ Mass Appraisal for the Masses: https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/mass-appraisal-for-the-masses-the Lars Doucet on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/property-assessment-lars-doucet/ Dave Kasten on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-government-dave-kasten/ – Twitter: @patio11 @larsiusprime – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:45) Center for land economics (04:01) Property tax basics (05:31) Challenges in property valuation (10:22) Impact of Proposition 13 in California (12:28) Anti-market property tax policies (14:43) Housing crisis and land value (15:46) Sponsors: Safebase (17:17) Housing crisis and land value (Part 2) (27:49) Urban development incentives (29:17) Tokyo's urban planning success (39:23) The abundance movement in housing (40:07) Innovative housing policies (41:24) Government bureaucracy and policy making (49:56) Mass appraisals and property tax fairness (01:00:02) Technological advances in property assessment (01:06:16) Empowering local governments and citizens (01:16:02) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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A tale of two Americas in one $50K cash withdrawal 41:13

25 روز پیش41:13

41:13

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical location of the bank branch in question, researched the context for the transaction using public records, and obtained new details through FOIA requests. His investigation reveals an underlying narrative that accounts for what actually happened , and provides a worked example for fact-checking in journalism. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/two-americas-one-50k-withdrawal/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Recommended in this episode: Two Americas, one bank, and $50,000 cash https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/two-americas-one-bank-branch/ The Cut, The Day I Put $50,000 in a Shoe Box and Handed It to a Stranger https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.html Kelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB Jim McKenzie on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X – Timestamps: (00:55) Suppose you ask a bank to withdraw $50,000 in cash (07:55) Style magazines sometimes publish hard-hitting journalism (12:36) Reaching out to Vox Media (17:09) Sources of doubt (17:55) Sponsor: Safebase (22:30) The physical reality of bank branches (25:53) In which we became acquainted with brisk walks across Brooklyn (34:42) New York’s Finest foil FOIL for a time…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
AI, data centers, and power economics, with Azeem Azhar 1:13:53

۵ weeks پیش1:13:53

1:13:53

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Azeem Azhar, writer of the Exponential View newsletter, to discuss the massive data center buildout powering AI and its implications for our energy infrastructure. The conversation covers the physical limitations of modern datacenters, the challenges of electricity generation, the societal ripples from historical largescale infrastructure investments like railways and telecommunications, and the future of energy including solar, nuclear and geothermal power. Through their discussion, Patrick and Azeem explain why our mental models for both computing and energy systems need to be updated. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-llm-data-center-power-economics/ – Sponsors: Safebase | Check Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode: Azeem’s newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Azeem Azhar’s guest essay: The 19th-Century Technology That Threatens A.I. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/opinion/ai-electricity-power-plants.html Electric Twin: https://www.electrictwin.com/ Video of Elon Musk’s Colossus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw696JVSxJQ Complex Systems with Travis Dauwalter on the electrical grid: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5JY8e84sEXmHFlc8IR2kRb?si=35ymIC0UQ5SKdV8rrBcgIw Complex Systems with Austin Vernon on fracking: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=YshjUXPEQBiScNxrNaI-Gw Complex Systems with Casey Handmer on direct capture of CO2 to turn into hydrocarbon: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu?si=xNYBjn0ZTX2IT_pAZ5Ozsg – Twitter: @azeem @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) The power economics of data centers (01:12) Historical infrastructure rollouts (04:58) The telecoms bubble (06:22) Unprecedented enterprise spend on AI capabilities (11:12) Let's have your LLM talk to my LLM (16:44) Is there a saturation point? (19:25) Sponsors: Safebase | Check (21:55) What’s in a data center? (24:52) The challenges of data centers (29:40) Geographical considerations for data centers (36:53) Energy consumption and future needs (40:48) Challenges in building transmission lines (41:35) The solar power learning curve (43:51) Small modular nuclear reactors (51:26) Geothermal energy and fracking (01:01:34) The future of AI and energy systems (01:12:57) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
You can’t retract the facts 42:03

۶ weeks پیش42:03

42:03

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) responds to a recent request by a crypto unicorn founder / bank CEO to retract his essay Debanking (and debunking?). Come for the note about editorial standards and independence, stay for the diss track. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/editorial-standards-and-independence/ – Sponsors: Safebase | Check Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode: Debanking (and debunking?): https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/ CEO: Retract your debanking article? Me: No. https://www.kalzumeus.com/2025/02/10/retraction-request-denied/ Geekiest rap single in history https://suno.com/song/c5ac7441-4a0b-4e5e-9c85-480e3ba63fc1 – Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:04) Musical interlude (04:56) Return to commentary (06:35) You can’t please everyone (08:06) The bar for retraction is high (10:07) Our review of the retraction request (10:37) “A few areas were incorrect or misleading” (16:12) “Lots of omission of key facts” (18:57) “Missing the point about what we mean by debunking” (20:40) Sponsors: Safebase | Check (25:00) Our response to McCauley’s testimony (28:24) McCauley’s concluding remarks and our response (30:21) Bank CEOs do not often ask writers for retractions (34:20) Some context regarding custodial banks (40:50) Returning to our regularly scheduled programming…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Stablecoins and shenanigans, with Zeke Faux 1:27:03

۷ weeks پیش1:27:03

1:27:03

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Zeke Faux, investigative reporter at Bloomberg and author of Number Go Up , to discuss stablecoins and crypto fraud. They dive into Tether's controversial history, the senate’s emerging GENIUS act, and how crypto enables various types of financial crime. The conversation explores how Tether went from a “quilted collection of red flags” to becoming crypto's dominant stablecoin, its noteworthy relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, and its current political maneuvering. They also discuss the societal value of financial regulation versus laissez-faire approaches to consumer protection. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/zeke-faux-stablecoins-tether/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Recommended in this episode: Number Go Up: https://zekefaux.com/ Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? Zeke Faux, Bloomberg Businessweek: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether Patrick’s review of Number Go Up: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/a-review-of-number-go-up-on-crypto-shenanigans/ Doesn't Matter, That's Reg E: https://suno.com/song/173bbd67-92f7-4868-930f-efeca4b373c0 – Twitter: @zekefaux @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45) The GENIUS act of 2025 (02:28) Tether's audit controversy (05:49) The origins and impact of Tether (08:17) Investigative reporting and red flags (12:58) Tether's shady business practices (19:23) Tether meets SBF (21:40) Sponsor: Check (22:51) New anecdotes in the Number Go Up paperback (28:53) The role of stable coins in crime (38:20) The importance of AML and KYC rules (44:21) Financial privacy (45:18) Sam Bankman-Fried's conference in the Bahamas (47:14) Loot NFTs (49:34) Axie Infinity: a case study (52:30) Crypto's real-world consequences (58:15) Regulation and financial safety (01:05:40) Stablecoin bill and ownership limits (01:06:50) Political realignment and crypto (01:14:40) Citizen journalists and the crypto-skeptic community (01:20:36) The abilities and limitations of institutional journalists (01:26:00) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Power plays: grid economics and engineering, with Travis Dauwalter 1:13:46

۸ weeks پیش1:13:46

1:13:46

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Travis Dauwalter, energy enthusiast (and PhD), to explain the systems we often take for granted behind the US electrical grid. The conversation covers how the grid maintains perfect supply-demand balance in real-time, the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources, and why America actually has three separate interconnected grids. Patrick and Travis weave through the economics of power generation, transmission line physics, and how data centers are reshaping energy markets. (Also, in a bit of a surprise, Patrick defends the honor of Bitcoin miners.) – Full transcript available here: complexsystemspodcast.com/electricity-grids-travis-dauwalter/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Utility Dive: https://www.utilitydive.com/ The Bitter Lesson by Rich Sutton: https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~eunsol/courses/data/bitter_lesson.pdf Austin Vernon on Fracking: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9 Casey Handmer on Solar Economics: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu – Twitter: @TravisDauwalter @patio11 Travis’ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/travisdauwalter/ – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Understanding the energy grid (02:22) The complexity of supply and demand (05:43) Regional differences in energy grids (08:16) Seasonal and daily energy demand (11:22) Renewable energy and storage solutions (17:17) Sponsor: Check (18:29) Renewable energy and storage solutions (continued) (24:07) Demand response and time of use rates (34:08) Bitcoin mining and energy economics (39:29) Exploring behind the meter arrangements (40:44) Transmission line challenges and innovations (45:51) Dynamic line rating and grid efficiency (50:58) Data centers and energy demand (58:33) Interconnection queue and grid security (01:03:38) Understanding the US grid structure (01:09:46) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
The landmines buried in the fine print of Chicago’s new casino deal 44:43

۹ weeks پیش44:43

44:43

In today’s episode Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) examines a Chicago casino investment, first of its kind within the city limits. Patrick reads from his Bits About Money essay (published January 2025) with additional commentary based on recent developments. The discussion reveals how municipal politics, grievances about national and local economic history, and creative financing intersect for ‘a very Chicago gamble.’ – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-landmines-buried-in-the-fine-print-of-chicagos-new-casino-deal/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/chicago-casino-investment-offering/ The Story of Vaccinate CA: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/ The Conservative Investor: https://www.patreon.com/theconservativeincomeinvestor Complex Systems interview with Jim McKenzie: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X?si=7HA0RhEOS8GFsA1MlY-EVw – Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:43) Chicago has wanted a casino for a long time (04:55) The stock offering (10:29) Chicago’s peculiar definition of minority (14:04) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (16:26) Reading a complex corporate structure (20:29) Is this valuation a gift to investors? (23:20) Capital stack arbitrage (30:04) The casino will not distribute profits, per se (32:45) Tax consequences of this offering (38:34) In conclusion…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
The banking crisis, two years later 1:11:08

10 weeks پیش1:11:08

1:11:08

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) revisits his March 2023 essay that explained the dynamics of bank runs and system stress during the banking crisis one month prior. With data from a newly released Federal Reserve paper, he analyzes the true scope of the banking stress - including revelations that 22 banks experienced severe deposit outflows, far more than publicly known at the time. While officials blamed social media for bank runs, data shows institutional players, not retail depositors, drove the events. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/banking-crisis-two-years-later/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/banking-in-very-uncertain-times/ Federal Reserve Report: Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1104.html Byrne Hobart’s blog The Diff: https://www.thediff.co/ Matt Levine’s blog Money Stuff: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/money-stuff – Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Revisiting the March 2023 essay (01:47) The Fed's study (11:21) Why are banks failing? (14:41) A useful heuristic from bond math (18:05) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (21:00) Maturity transformation (29:54) Sponsor: GiveWell (30:42) Liquidity problems are the proximate cause of bank failures (33:43) Trying to forestall a banking crisis (40:16) Deposit insurance expansion (47:12) Deposit insurance has some legacy issues (52:04) What would happen if my bank were to go into receivership this weekend? (59:46) What should users of the banking system do? (01:04:09) Parting thoughts (01:05:08) Footnote…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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Debanking explained 1:02:04

11 weeks پیش1:02:04

1:02:04

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) unpacks his 24k word essay Debanking (and Debunking?) originally published on Bits about Money. He discusses the contours of recent debanking claims made by the crypto community, notably Marc Andreessen, Nic Carter, and explains how banking actually works as infrastructure rather than conspiracy. The conversation moves from Operation Chokepoint's documented history to current claims about coordinated action against certain industries, while highlighting how banking access challenges disproportionately affect those who are "relatively less resourced, relatively less educated." – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/debanking-patrick-mckenzie/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Debanking (and Debunking?) https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/ a16z's Debanking explainer: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/debanking-explained/ – Twitter: @patio11 @eriktorenberg – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Marc Andreessen's debanking claims (01:02) Understanding debanking and its implications (02:18) Crypto enthusiasts' perspective (07:43) Operation Chokepoint: A historical context (18:09) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (20:23) Operation Chokepoint 2.0: The present day (22:12) The fall of Silvergate Bank (29:55) Crypto advocates and Silvergate Bank (30:45) Sponsor: GiveWell (31:43) Understanding bank account closures (32:35) Bodegas and money services businesses (36:38) Crypto companies and credit risk (47:24) Debanking and its broader implications (49:24) Political ramifications and free speech (59:27) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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Retrospective on 2024, with Sammy Cottrell 1:05:11

12 weeks پیش1:05:11

1:05:11

In this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Ricki Heicklen on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/11kEUYRn4gXZGju232hzcg Casey Handmer on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu Dan Davies on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9 Zvi Mowshowitz on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4itdtJFLCpLQNd2g1zTtdD Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m Patrick’s talk at Manifest 2024 (Manifold): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfiiXq_bE1c Article mentioned - ‘50K in a Shoebox’: https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.html Copenhagen theory of culpability: https://laneless.substack.com/p/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethics – Twitter: @patio11 @haththerescuer – Timestamps: (01:04) Introducing Sammy (01:37) The offscreen symphony behind Complex Systems (07:19) Production supply chain and transcript philosophy (08:40) LLMs of choice (15:11) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (21:21) Favorite episodes (25:49) Sponsor: GiveWell (27:15) Beyoncé (28:47) More subjectively favorite episodes (32:34) Thesis of Complex Systems (34:07) Canon in operations research (40:51) Sabbatical mode (48:52) Bits about Money and other writing in 2024 (51:22) On paywalls and not implementing them (54:29) LLM plans for 2025 – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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Seeing like an outsider, with Yatharth 1:19:31

13 weeks پیش1:19:31

1:19:31

In this episode, Yatharth (@askyatharth), a graduate student and software engineer, turns the tables to interview Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) about cultural codes, writing, and AI. Patrick shares how his early experiences fighting credit report errors and navigating cross-cultural business environments led to his distinctive approach to understanding and writing about institutional systems. The conversation spans from Patrick's methodical exploration of banking infrastructure to his predictions about LLMs, weaving in personal stories about dating, parenthood, and bridging American and Japanese cultures along the way. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Yatharth’s writing https://itsyatharth.substack.com/ Rules for Radicals by Saul Alinsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals Dave Kasten on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=5EZYfZ7gThG8WV7hSs1aFQ Lars Doucet on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XQjSGCfW6XIu1AFB4oZeR?si=n3C28PymT6m7pPqFb2NE8Q Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: @askyatharth @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:30) Patrick's early interest in credit cards (03:53) Navigating financial challenges (05:10) Becoming a financial advisor (10:35) Cultural and educational insights (18:57) Sponsor: Check (22:14) Personal stories and reflections (25:48) Parenting and cultural integration (33:26) Writing and storytelling journey (37:35) Translating financial systems for a new audience (39:08) The role of AI in writing and style transfer (40:46) The concept of alpha in writing (44:48) Legal advice and AI's role (52:12) The impact of AI on bureaucratic systems (01:04:22) Reflections on government software and policy (01:13:49) Sabbatical insights and future interests (01:18:52) Wrap – Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse .…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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The future of pandemic preparedness, with Joshua Morrison 1:13:51

15 weeks پیش1:13:51

1:13:51

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: 1Day Sooner: https://www.1daysooner.org/ Patrick’s Complex Systems interview with Ross Rheingans-Yoo: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m Patrick's Complex Systems interview with Dave Kasten about building VaccinateCA https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=VsSJMkktQiSGxtn9bFoOWA Takeda's licensing deal with Moderna: https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2021/takeda-announces-approval-of-modernas-covid-19-vaccine-in-japan/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: @joshcmorrison @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:56) The role of challenge studies in vaccine development (09:24) Understanding vaccine platforms (18:33) Sponsor: Givewell | Check (19:46) Regulatory system insights and future improvements (20:41) Lessons for our regulatory system (29:55) First doses first debate (37:35) The surprising nature of COVID-19 (39:30) Vaccine hesitancy and public communication (42:08) Political influence on vaccine distribution (58:28) Indoor air quality and disease prevention (01:06:52) Future of public health initiatives (01:12:27) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
How we tax property, with Lars Doucet 1:10:56

16 weeks پیش1:10:56

1:10:56

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cover why assessment offices are separate from tax collectors, how property value protests actually work, and why your neighbor's house might be assessed differently than yours. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/property-assessment-lars-doucet/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Lars’ book: https://www.landisabigdeal.com/ Lars’ blog: https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter @larsiusprime @patio11 – Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:23) How property taxes work (Texas Example) (02:45) The political art of avoiding tax rate blame (05:53) Sources of real estate data (08:08) Historical property assessment (11:04) Statutory guidance vs. Actual practice on market value assessment (14:25) Tax rate strategy and sandbagging (15:17) Assessed value vs market value (16:16) Assessment caps and Prop 13 (18:22) Sponsor: GiveWell | Check (20:27) Data collection in the field (22:54) Data collection methods (25:08) Property valuation: Beyond location and correlative factors (26:52) Depreciation of buildings (27:37) Orthodox view of depreciation (30:53) Real estate cultural differences (33:59) Urban redevelopment and land value (36:59) Small business realities and perceptions (46:19) Property tax protests (50:45) Predictive protests (52:19) Accuracy vs equity testing (58:50) Cook county assessor's office (1:01:11) Lars's background (1:05:38) What is GIS? (1:09:52) Wrap…

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