Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?

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محتوای ارائه شده توسط Derek Moore. تمام محتوای پادکست شامل قسمت‌ها، گرافیک‌ها و توضیحات پادکست مستقیماً توسط Derek Moore یا شریک پلتفرم پادکست آن‌ها آپلود و ارائه می‌شوند. اگر فکر می‌کنید شخصی بدون اجازه شما از اثر دارای حق نسخه‌برداری شما استفاده می‌کند، می‌توانید روندی که در اینجا شرح داده شده است را دنبال کنید.https://fa.player.fm/legal

Species Unite

1
Richard (Kudo) Couto: The Hidden Horror Behind a Billion-Dollar Brand 42:18

16 روز پیش42:18

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42:18

“I used to be the largest dairy consumer on the planet. I used to eat so much dairy and meat. The more that I looked into the dairy industry, the more that I saw that it was the singular, most inhumane industry on the planet, that we've all been lied to, including myself, for years. I always believed that the picture on the milk carton, the cow standing next to her calf in the green field with the red barn in the back was true. It’s certainly the complete opposite.” – Richard (Kudo) Couto Richard (Kudo) Couto is the founder of Animal Recovery Mission (ARM), an organization solely dedicated to investigating extreme animal cruelty cases. ARM has led high-risk undercover operations that have resulted in the shutdown of illegal slaughterhouses, animal fighting rings, and horse meat trafficking networks. Recently, they released a damning investigation into two industrial dairy farms outside of Phoenix, Arizona supplying milk to Coca-Cola’s Fairlife brand. What they uncovered was systemic animal abuse, environmental violations, and a devastating betrayal of consumer trust. While Fairlife markets its products as being sourced "humanely," ARM’s footage tells a very different story—one of suffering, abuse, and corporate complicity. Despite the evidence, this story has been largely ignored by mainstream media—likely due to Coca-Cola’s massive influence and advertising dollars.…

حدود یک سال پیش 43:43

MP3•خانه قسمت

Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?

Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy

Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data

MicroStrategy implied volatility

S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates

Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future

Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index

Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500

Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield

Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed

How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move?

Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers

Mentioned in this Episode

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

324 قسمت

#Trading #Business #Derek Moore

Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?

Broken Pie Chart

published حدود یک سال پیش

اشتراک گذاری

MP3•خانه قسمت

Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy

Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data

MicroStrategy implied volatility

S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates

Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future

Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index

Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500

Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield

Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed

How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move?

Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers

Mentioned in this Episode

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

324 قسمت

#Trading #Business #Derek Moore

Όλα τα επεισόδια

Broken Pie Chart

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MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast 30:34

۵ روز پیش30:34

30:34

Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady. MSTR MicroStrategy potential to join the S&P 500 Index? Requirements for a company to enter the S&P 500 Index Why companies entering and leaving helps the long-term growth of the index Where to look for emerging candidates to enter the S&P 500 Index Vanguard Extended Market ETF Should the Fed have lowered rates? What is the Trueflation index? CPI inflation for April released this week Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Trueflation vs CPI Inflation Mentioned in this Episode Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting Sam Ro article on S&P 500 Index company turnover https://www.tker.co/p/s-and-p-500-turnover-goldman-sachs-forecast?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Vanguards Extended Market ETF https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vxf#portfolio-composition Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later 34:55

12 روز پیش34:55

34:55

Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk. Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later? What is an almost bear market? Unemployment review after Friday’s release Will the Fed cut rates at the May meeting? Scott Bessent says the 2-year treasury is telling the Fed to cut Comparing various CPI inflation rates in March AAII investors still mega bearish Barrons polls market people who are most bearish in 30 years Is the Barrons cover a contrarian signal? Why the Fed didn’t end inflation in 2022, and their rate increases didn’t do anything Sell in May and go away? Best historical time periods for returns Mentioned in this Episode Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary says the Fed needs to cut https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-says-225359048.html Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move | 33:23

19 روز پیش33:23

33:23

Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more. Apple earnings implied volatility What is the implied volatility expected earnings move for Apple FMS manager survey shows fund managers were max bearish near recent bottom Distance off the low is now +10% after being down -18.90% All that said, the S&P is down -10% off the all-time high Investment banks start downgrading their year end S&P 500 Index targets Bear case for housing due to high mortgage rates Earnings have been good so far but what about the future? Comparing mortgage payments at low vs 7% rates Sentiment and VIX readings near contrarian lows like prior periods Container shipping container rates are down and that is not inflationary Container shipping volume and capacity are all down Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still 28:47

26 روز پیش28:47

28:47

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment. Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren’t the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical) Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow! 32:35

۵ weeks پیش32:35

32:35

Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to tariff selloff today Context on how much market moved in a day to a normal year Intraday move was literally 2 ½ hours for a market to move 9% Biggest up days cluster around the biggest down days Bond yields surging is a problem Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen gets when tariffs are paused for 90 days The VIX Index wasn’t pricing the crazy daily moves we’ve seen in markets Why investors shouldn’t panic sell Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions 59:53

۶ weeks پیش59:53

59:53

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging. When do we reach capitulation? The market is cheaper so will people step in and buy? The problem analysts have in making forecasts given the tariff landscape Explaining implied volatility vs historical volatility Why was the VIX higher after the first bad day Thursday Discussing how a VIX closes at 45 is significant Remembering sentiment at different inflection points in the market like 2020, 2015 2000 etc Markets are back to where they were in August when the Yen Carry trade unwound Why investors shouldn’t panic The case for using hedged equity strategies What does a bottom look like? Market is much cheaper on a forward valuation basis What are the economic risks? Unemployment was fine and the economy was adding jobs so what’s the problem? Atlanta Fed GDP Update Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility 41:58

۷ weeks پیش41:58

41:58

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500 Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are? Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high Mentioned in this Episode Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab1 ECON PI http://econpi.com/index.php Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

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Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots 38:18

۸ weeks پیش38:18

38:18

Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still Fed dot plots Fed Funds Futures rate expectations Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates LEI Leading Economic Indicator Mentioned in this Episode Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=Using%20the%20Composite%20Indexes:%20The%20Leading%20Economic,economy%20is%20heading%20in%20the%20near%20term.&text=The%20CEI's%20four%20component%20indicators%E2%80%94payroll%20employment%2C%20personal,used%20to%20determine%20recessions%20in%20the%20US . CME Fed watch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless 35:58

۹ weeks پیش35:58

35:58

Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more! Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market performance US Dollar index US Trade Weighed Dollar Index University of Michigan Sentiment Indicator Republicans vs Democrats Nvidia was up close to 8% last week Micron earnings through Implied Volatility Readings Long Straddle cost before earnings VIX Futures curve inversion Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails 1:05:26

10 weeks پیش1:05:26

1:05:26

Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs. Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994 Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009 Why investors shouldn’t panic Reminding everyone why it’s good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle 3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025? Value of hedging your portfolio High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs? Uncertainty of Tariffs Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide Trade deficit expands Mentioned in this Episode Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency https://zegainvestments.com/blog/for-investors-worried-about-market-corrections-this-is-why-you-hedge-so-that-you-can-worry-less Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT…

Broken Pie Chart

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Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied Volatility Broadcom | Effective Tariff Increase | Mag 7 Correction 35:11

11 weeks پیش35:11

35:11

Derek Moore goes through last week’s pullback and Nvidia’s post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn’t made a new high since December but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down. Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while earnings estimates rise US Effective Tariff Rate impact of various potential tariffs according to Goldman Sachs AAII survey goes full bear but is it justified compared to prior periods? Broadcom earnings and what the implied volatility suggests a 1 standard deviation move is Did the options market get the post earnings Nvidia move correct? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Higher Jan & Feb Means Bull Continues? | Broadening Market Outside Mag 7 | Profit Margins Rising | International Outperforming | Nvidia Options & Earnings 47:48

12 weeks پیش47:48

47:48

Derek Moore and Mike Puck talk about the resurgence of international stocks against the US. Plus, how the rest of the market has a similar performance to the Mag 7, indicating a broadening out of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Later, they discuss what markets historically have done after being up in January and February. Profit margins are rising outside the Mag 7 names and looking at the expected Nvidia move around earnings based upon the implied volatility levels. S&P 500 Index 493 vs the Mag 7 year to date International stocks including emerging markets and developed markets shine against the US Profit margins continue to rise across the entire S&P 500 Index RSP vs SPY vs EEM vs EFA year to date performance relative to one another Average performance since 1950 for the S&P 500 Index after being up January and February Nvidia options before next week’s earnings announcement Calculate expected moves in Nvidia based on implied volatility Pricing the long straddle and short straddle on Nvidia pre-earnings Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Bond Rates Staying Higher | Forward PE Multiples | Implied Volatility During Earnings | Nominal GDP vs 10 Year Yield 36:46

13 weeks پیش36:46

36:46

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more. What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate? What is Real GDP growth? The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet? Inflation in services remains sticky Why interest rates staying higher isn’t necessarily a problem for the stock market Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple 1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Unemployment | MicroStrategy Volatility Too Low? | Tariffs Are Fine for Markets? | Inflation Expectations Shoot Up 46:55

14 weeks پیش46:55

46:55

Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to react to the unemployment report. Was it good or bad for the markets and why? Plus, they review the last trade and tariff war from 2017-2018 and how the market actually did pretty well. Later, the latest survey on forward inflation expectations is now over 5%. Finally, they compare MicroStrategy’s implied volatility to Blackrock’s IBIT ETF and whether the options market is undervaluing MSTR’s IV. All that and more this week. Markets performance back in 2017-2018 when tariffs were enacted Inflation expectations shoot up due to tariffs Stock market performance during the 2017-2018 trade and tariff war MicroStrategy implied volatility Comparing MicroStrategy volatility to Blackrock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF Looking at the breakeven on a long MSTR straddle and the risks Reviewing the unemployment report Will unemployment go down due to new government strategic focus? AI mentions on S&P 500 earnings calls 83% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 6% US Non-Farm Payrolls consecutive positive months BLS forgot to fill in the monthly change on unemployment report? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

Broken Pie Chart

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Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate 42:59

15 weeks پیش42:59

42:59

Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now? What is market fragility? Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing 30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury Why is there a spread above treasuries What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds? Tariffs impact on markets How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US? Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they’ll be short lived, so now what? Mentioned in this Episode Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro https://www.tker.co/p/analysts-earnings-estimates-accuracy Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com…

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Broken Pie Chart « » Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?

Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?

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Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?