Jeremy and Gareth look back over the week and concluded that it mostly lived up to last week’s billing…little major economic news; but plenty of politics in the headlines. Bond yields globally are rising despite central bankers in general telling us that inflation is dead, although some more hawkish comments came from the Fed. Meanwhile, the IMF ha…

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss events in Gaza and Israel, with oil prices lower as the risk of an attack on Iranian oil facilities has reduced, and the death of the Hamas leader could even open the fabled "path to peace". Meanwhile, even as energy prices dip, datacentre owners Google, Microsoft and Amazon are buying nuclear power capacity to a…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent Tech news. Ian sees some common themes with Pinewood (PINE) and Made Tech (MTEC) results – looking at sales processes and how much more difficult it is to sell software than services, and how lines can become blurred. George looks to the results of TCS (Tata Consultancy Services), the services be…

This week Jeremy and Gareth comment on the "jury's out" reaction to Chinese stimulus, and worries that US inflation may be hard to eradicate. The UK seems to be doing reasonably well despite investor worries over tax increases and bond-market concerns about increased borrowing. Jeremy quotes a chancellor to Louis XIV, and suggests that Rachel Reeve…

This week Jeremy and Gareth focus on Asia...the "Beijing Bazooka" has launched Chinese equities skywards, while Japan still holds risk for global markets. Ironically, current tensions in the Middle East might be helping markets ignore Japan for a while longer, but in Europe inflation has fallen fast, raising concerns of a slowing economic outlook. …

Jeremy and Gareth are joined this week by Alastair Stewart, Progressive's Building and Construction analyst. The main macro surprise this week has been some rapid and arguably extreme stimulus activities undertaken by the Chinese authorities...Jeremy points out that although this has been seen as something of a "sugar rush" of good news (Chinese eq…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent Tech News after the summer break. They consider Gamma Communications and IQE and what some might see as the difference between a good stock and a good business. Even though a company can lay claim to great IP and great tech, it is just as likely, if not more, that it is the position in the value …

This week's podcast sees Jeremy and Gareth discuss the 50-basis point cut from the US Federal Reserve, who have previously told us that inflation is pretty much under control and the primary focus is now saving jobs (the US has a dual mandate, unlike the UK Central Bank). But there is risk - Jeremy highlights that the last time the Fed cut rates by…

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the prospects for a soft or hard landing for the US economy. While bond and oil markets are pricing in a recession, other markets like gold and the yen suggest financial market stress. However, while the US inflation prints are softening, the main focus for policymakers is jobs. Equity markets are skittish and i…

This week in The Market Call Jeremy and Gareth discuss the choppy start to the month of September - potentially echoing the worries at the beginning of August. Back in August, the concerns related to a rising Yen and falling dollar, a "carry trade" that might unwind with consequent selling of US assets. This time, the worry is that although Fed Cha…

This week’s Market Call sees Jeremy and Gareth talk mainly macro - there was very little UK stock news, but a lot going on more broadly. Markets have had a few days to digest the comments from US Fed Chairman Jay Powell, who last week steered towards lower US rates at the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers. The fear might have been that this…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for Jackson Hole, the chances of a rate-cutting cycle starting at the Fed in September, and whether the US is heading for a soft or hard landing. While the markets see upside, stock market history suggests that the start of these cycles is followed by increased market volatility and corrections. The most rece…

This week’s Market Call sees Jeremy and Gareth discussing the UK outlook. UK GDP data was up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, showing the economy is growing, albeit slowly, and putting the UK at #3 in the G7 group - a reassuring backdrop for investors. Meanwhile we also had inflation “down but not out”…with the figure this week showing a less-than-expected…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent Tech News, discussing stock and sector rotation in tech and the semiconductors industry. Having reviewed Allianz Tech Trust and Polar Capital Tech Trust recently, George looks at divergent performance in the sector and the big focus and interest in semiconductors. And with so much going on but so…

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss what was supposed to be a quiet week but was anything but. The US unemployment rate of last Friday triggered the Sahm Rule, indicating that the US is in recession. This was the spark that lit markets and, in particular, uncovered concerns about the global Yen debt levels and the popular Yen carry trade. US tech s…

This week has seen a flurry of macro data, giving Jeremy and Gareth plenty to discuss. European growth is slowing (the German economy is in decline) but inflation is nudging upwards - not a good combination. Elsewhere, we saw one rate rise, one rate reduction and a "wait and see". Japan saw rates rise, just as US rates were signposted likely to be …

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent tech news. They consider whether in the words of Robert Smith (of Vista Equity Partners) ‘‘Software tastes like chicken’ and what the success of Mark Leonard’s $80bn market cap Constellation Software as a serial acquiror of vertical market software businesses, has in the way of lessons for UK lis…

Gareth and Jeremy are joined this week by Ian Robertson to bring a "tech perspective" given the tumble in US mega-cap tech stocks. Markets reacted in a cautious way to Biden's decision to step aside in favour of Kamala Harris, and there are some signs that global economies remain fragile. We also had warnings and downgrades from a number of bellwet…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the tumultuous week that was. With England’s football woes kicking off the week, the rest was dominated once again by politics. In the UK the new Labour government’s policies were outlined in the King’s Speech, with much talk around changes to the planning process and the likely positive repercussions for UK housebuilders …

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent tech news and discuss the implications of the new Labour government upon the small and mid-cap listed tech space. George has been canvassing opinions amongst the great and the good of UK tech and found a generally positive, if somewhat non-committal, view. The Labour party have been making many o…

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the positive set-up for UK equities, helped by stronger-than-expected GDP growth for May, the firm £, and lower US inflation, which has raised hopes of rate cuts. The new Labour government's honeymoon period is underway, and they are looking busy, but will it last forever? There are emerging signs that the unwin…

As usual Gareth and Jeremy discuss the macro backdrop to markets over the last week and take a look at UK company news. We have a look at CML Microsystems results. Jeremy tries to compare the UK market to the England football team's progress to date at Euro '24. Next week, we get UK GDP data, US inflation data, and more politics. Made possible by P…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent tech news. They discuss Ian’s blog on the question of what 'cloud native' is and whether we really need the big rewrite of existing code. George reviews the positive news extending from the small end with Made Tech and tinyBuild, through to the giant Accenture. He also talks about his evening at …

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's macro and UK market news before looking ahead to next week. The headlines remain dominated by politics with more than one election every week during 2024. The UK election outcome is largely known, but there is more uncertainty elsewhere. We have seen a return of Yen weakness, which highlights the high level of J…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the macro and UK company news of the past week and examine what lies ahead next week. This week's macro focus is on the UK, with annual inflation landing on target at 2%, the Bank's decision to keep rates on hold, and better-than-expected retail sales and consumer confidence data. In UK company news, they discuss ongoing M…

As some 45,000 people attended London's Tech Week last week, George O'Connor and Ian Robertson got together to talk about the latest sector news. With the theme of rates higher for longer equating to lower for longer, George touched on how this macro centric year of elections was effecting the growth prospects of Small Caps. Ian discussed the geo-s…

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the way European elections and particularly the surprise French National Assembly election are impacting markets. They also cover the US rate decision and inflation data this week. The UK is keeping calm and carrying on as Raspberry Pi successfully launches onto the market and they discuss other companies including DFS, Peel…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's market news from a macro perspective, focusing on UK companies and the equity market. Lower commodity and energy prices and the start of the rate reduction cycle as the ECB lowers rates are included this week. Politics is having an impact in India and Mexico, and looking into next week, we have the European elec…

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the week's market news. US GDP growth has started to slow down. However, the big news is the return to life of the UK stock market. Our equity capital markets, long believed dead, sprang to life again last week and priced £8bn with some large rights issues and a wide range of smaller deals that have been absorbed by a streng…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson discuss the impact of digitalisation on analog businesses and how sometimes it is not the big disruptive story that makes the difference. Digitalisation has made a huge impact on the world of Domino’s Pizza and yet Cazoo has shown that being a ‘disruptor’ is not enough – you have to know what you are trying to disr…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the economic news that UK inflation is not falling as fast as expected, and the big political news about the UK General Election. In the US, Nvidia is a sprinting giant that rose one HSBC in value in the minutes following its better-than-expected Q2 earnings release. They also discuss the growing M&A activity in the UK mar…

In this episode George O’Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent and mostly positive Tech News, with George holding his positivity pledge card firmly aloft. They also discuss the Raspberry Pi IPO – another reason to be cheerful. A London float, a good company, a growth company and litmus test for the UK equity market. Brought to you by Progress…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's market news, highlighting the lower-than-expected US inflation print. The UK is increasingly in a Goldilocks scenario with the lower US$ and relative strength of the Pound, giving the BoE greater scope to reduce rates next month. There is increasing momentum behind the UK market move. In UK company news, Raspber…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the improving macroeconomic backdrop, with easier financial conditions driven by the Fed's decision to reduce its balance sheet less quickly. Is negative QT the same as QE? The effect is the same. The BoE is pretty explicitly steering towards a rate cut at the next meeting in June. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon, …

Gareth and Jeremy are joined this week by Property & Construction analyst and housebuilding meteorologist, Alastair Stewart. The macro topics for discussion are the Yen, the continued volatility in the Asian currency markets, the Federal Reserve policy rate decision and what the Bank of England might do with regards to its own interest rate decisio…

George O’Connor and Ian Robertson discuss UK small and mid-cap tech, examining current issues and searching for facts, clarity and understanding. In this first episode they discuss the opportunities in motion capture, virtual reality and machine learning smart vision at Oxford Metrics, and the potential for profitable semiconductor player, CML Micr…

Please note this was recorded before the Microsoft and Alphabet Q1 results were announced. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospect of great equity market dispersal, the benign political risk of the UK, the demise of ESG, and the attractive value of UK-listed assets. Meta and Nvidia share prices are falling, and the Magnificient Seven shows signs of …

For this week's Market Call Gareth and Jeremy are joined again by Scott Evans of the London Business School and the Deutsche Numis Equity Indices. Scott talks about market performance in Q1 2024. Where have markets come from, how have they performed in Q1, and where are they going? Bond yields have risen, inflation is sticky, and rates are higher f…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week in markets. US inflation is proving sticky, and it is increasingly difficult to justify cutting rates on economic grounds. The question is whether the BoE or ECB would cut ahead of the Fed. China is exporting deflation. In the UK, GDP grew more than expected in February, and the January figure was revised upwards.…

Legendary technology analyst and new Progressive team member George O'Connor joins Gareth & Jeremy. Jeremy discusses the backdrop for persistent inflation and higher for longer interest rates including higher commodity prices, including gold. They discuss how pawnbrokers, H&T and Ramsdens illustrate how higher gold prices lead people to sell gold o…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the UK budget, the prospect of rate cuts, and the new high in gold prices. There are more bids in the UK; this time, for Spirent and Virgin Money. We had results from STV & Beeks, and updates from housing-related companies Travis, Ibstock, Headlam, and Likewise, all looking for a pick-up in housing activity. Next week's ma…

Jeremy & Gareth discuss recovering UK housing activity, the UK's IPO prospects, the EV problem, Bitcoin ETFs, the knockout bid for Wincanton as another indicator of the value in the UK small cap market, improving evidence of equity fund raises, and updates from Taylor Wimpy and Howden Joinery. Looking into next week, setting Wednesday's Spring Budg…

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the path for interest rates, Nvidia and the AI bubble, the parallels to the dot-com bubble, and what might happen next. In the UK they discuss Springfield Properties, Currys, Dialight, and Gooch & Housego. Finally, Jeremy looks at the macro data that might impact markets this week. Brought to you by Progressive Equity Resear…

In their weekly chat, Jeremy & Gareth discuss the UK recession, the trends for inflation and interest rates and how stock markets are behaving and the outlook for the consumer. They ask whether the UK might go it alone and cut rates before a move from the Fed. They also discuss Bloomsbury Publishing and the demand for fantasy fiction, XP Power and …

Gareth and Jeremy are joined by Alastair Stewart, who talks about the Barratts Redrow acquisition, the outlook for the housebuilding sector, house price data and the emerging recovery in transaction volumes. Additionally, they cover the updates from Beeks Financial Cloud and Sanderson Design, and in next week's news, they highlight the release of s…

Rate Reductions on Hold but Outlook for UK Small Caps Remains Positive Jeremy and Gareth discussed issues in markets last week with the outlook for interest rates, inflation, the UK housing market, emerging banking strains based on commercial real estate lending with echoes of last year's US regional banking crisis, and the Mag Seven reporting seas…

Jeremy and Gareth talk about the week in markets, how the world economy is shaping up and, in particular, what the hell's happening in China, its economy and stock market. Also discussed are UK updates from Forterra, Idox, Wetherspoon, and Aquis Exchange. Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.…

Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans are joined by Scott Evans of the London Business School and co-compiler of the Deutsche Numis Market Indices to discuss the performance of mid and small-cap last year, over the long term, and what might be driving equity market performance in 2024. In addition, they mention updates from Concurrent Technologies and Ga…

Jeremy McKeown & Gareth Evans discuss the macro drivers behind this week's equity markets and some company updates that caught their attention. Companies mentioned this week include UK housebuilders, M&S, Marks Electrical, Sosander and Xaar.توسط Progressive Equity Research

Macro & Overnight It’s a quiet day for macro news; investors are focusing on US inflation data later today for clues about the Fed rate decision, where the next FOMC meeting is on January 30th. The SEC finally approved Bitcoin ETFs in the US market, widening the scope for investors to access the alternative asset, for example, via 401K pension plan…