Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 15

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LAR @ SF | KC @ CLE | CIN @ TEN | WAS @ NO | BAL @ NYG | DAL @ CAR | NYJ @ JAX | MIA @ HOU | IND @ DEN | BUF @ DET | PIT @ PHI | NE @ ARI | TB @ LAC | GB @ SEA | CHI @ MIN | ATL @ LV

Thursday Night Football

L.A. Rams @ San Francisco

Team Totals: 49ers 25.5, Rams 23

Fantasy’s QB6 over the last month, Matthew Stafford has benefited from the Rams’ O-Line settling down with RT Rob Havenstein healthy and needle-moving WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp hitting grooves. During that four-week stretch, Stafford has completed 67.5% of his passes for 1,041 yards (8.9 YPA) and a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio while taking only seven sacks. 49ers All-Pro EDGE Nick Bosa (oblique) remains without a timetable for return. I’m valuing Stafford as a fringe QB1/2 fantasy option here. … The restored health of L.A.’s front five has likewise boosted Kyren Williams, who is fantasy’s RB6 over the past three weeks. Rams No. 2 RB Blake Corum hasn’t exceeded eight touches in a game all year. The 49ers have surrendered the league’s 11th-most fantasy points to running backs on the season.

Since returning from injury in Week 8, Nacua is fantasy’s overall WR2 behind only Ja’Marr Chase. Over his last 17 games — including playoffs — Nacua’s combined receiving line is 104/1,548/8 with an additional rushing score. … Kupp lacks Nacua’s ceiling but is fantasy’s WR3 in PPR scoring since Week 8. The concentrated nature of Los Angeles’ passing-game distribution renders Kupp matchup-proof, particularly from a floor standpoint. … Already nursing an injured hand, Demarcus Robinson is now dealing with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder. On a short week, Robinson’s health issues create a window for Tutu Atwell to potentially make noise as a single-game DFS dart. Over his last three appearances, Atwell has caught a perfect 8-of-8 targets for 114 yards. … The Rams have been running a fantasy-unfriendly TE committee involving Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Hunter Long of late.

The Rams’ allowance of the NFL’s third-most yards per pass attempt (8.0), seventh-highest passer rating (99.2), and fourth-most 20+ yard completions (47) keeps Brock Purdy in QB1/2 range in what sets up as a plus-weather game with the second-highest total on Week 15’s slate. … HC Kyle Shanahan’s early-week health assessment of Isaac Guerendo (foot) was discouraging enough to tentatively project Patrick Taylor Jr. as San Francisco’s TNF tailback starter. A fourth-year UDFA out of Memphis, Taylor respectably runs 4.57 at 6-foot-2, 217 and is quite familiar with Shanahan’s running scheme, having spent most of 2020-2023 under Packers HC Matt LaFleur, who runs a similar offense. The Niners’ running back alternatives are Bucs castoff Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Jets waiver claim Israel Abanikanda.

San Francisco’s flurry of skill-player injuries gives versatile FB Kyle Juszczyk sleeper life on single-game DFS tournament slates. … George Kittle enters Week 15 ranked No. 3 among NFL tight ends in yards (800) and No. 1 in touchdowns (8) while averaging career highs in catch rate (84%) and yards per target (11.9). With Brandon Aiyuk (knee, I.R.) and Christian McCaffrey (knee, I.R.) long gone and Deebo Samuel slumping, Kittle’s box-score ceiling is as lofty as it’s ever been. … The Rams have coughed up the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, while Jauan Jennings has emerged as Purdy’s go-to WR. Jennings’ matchup here is improved by the probable absence of Rams CB Cobie Durant (lung contusion). … Samuel has finished below 40 total yards in four straight games and is scoreless since Week 6. He’s devolved into a WR4/flex option in season-long leagues but still makes sense as a single-game DFS tournament gamble. … Over his last four appearances, Ricky Pearsall has combined for one catch on five targets across 135 offensive snaps played.

Score Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 23

Kansas City @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Chiefs 25, Browns 21

Fantasy’s QB11 on the season, Patrick Mahomes’ box-score results have persistently underwhelmed; he’s cleared 20 standard-league fantasy points in just two of 13 starts while being harassed in the pocket behind swinging-gate offensive tackles. Mahomes has taken the NFL’s sixth-most sacks (35) and been knocked down 46 times, third most in the league. Cleveland has yielded the NFL’s 11th-fewest fantasy points to QBs. … Isiah Pacheco surged past Kareem Hunt in Week 14’s win over the Chargers, out-touching him 16 to 6 and out-snapping Hunt 32 to 20. The Browns don’t present an especially favorable running back matchup, but Pacheco should stay safely atop the depth chart. Hunt is a handcuff at best.

Xavier Worthy has handled at least five touches in four straight games and logged a year-high 83% snap rate in Week 14’s win. Cleveland has surrendered the NFL’s third-most 20+ yard completions (48) and fifth-most 40+ yard pass plays (9), creating a breakout opportunity for 4.21 burner Worthy. … The Chiefs are clearly intent on restricting DeAndre Hopkins’ playing time; he’s played fewer than 60% of K.C.’s offensive snaps in four straight games. That makes Hopkins an especially touchdown-dependent WR3/flex play, although his Week 15 matchup is improved by Browns CB Greg Newsome’s (hamstring) absence. … With Mecole Hardman (knee) gone to I.R., Chiefs No. 3 WR duties are being split between JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson. … Travis Kelce enters Week 15 ranked No. 2 among tight ends in both targets (107) and receptions (80). Kelce’s playmaking capability has obviously diminished, but sheer volume keeps him TE1 justifiable every week. … The Chiefs signed Noah Gray to a three-year, $18 million extension before Week 1. Gray will likely take over as Mahomes’ top tight end should 35-year-old Kelce retire after the season.

Fantasy’s per-game QB5 scorer since taking over as Cleveland’s starter in Week 8, Jameis Winston has played fearless, matchup-agnostic football by dropping weekly finishes of QB1 and QB12 on the imposing defenses of Denver and Pittsburgh during his time under center. The Chiefs’ defense has sprung leaks, notably against Aidan O’Connell in Week 13 and Bryce Young in Week 12. Winston’s gunslinging style plus the Browns’ willingness to let him sling — Jameis is averaging a whopping 43.2 pass attempts per game — keeps him QB1 playable here. … Jerome Ford stayed ahead of Nick Chubb in Week 14’s loss to the Steelers, out-touching him 13 to 11 and out-snapping Chubb 40 to 26. Handoffs to Chubb simply aren’t accomplishing enough, and Ford is obviously preferred when the Browns fall behind. Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to running backs.

Jameis’ 2024 target distribution: David Njoku 61; Jerry Jeudy 59; Elijah Moore 53; Cedric Tillman 34; Jordan Akins 14; Ford 13. … With Winston under center, Njoku leads all tight ends in targets (30) and catches (16) over the last two weeks. The Chiefs have given up the NFL’s most receptions (86) and yards (1,015) to tight ends this year. … Jeudy is fantasy’s overall WR2 in per-game PPR scoring over the last month and a half. He’s earned legitimate WR1 treatment as Winston’s go-to guy. … Moore’s usage has been all over the place and could lessen should Tillman (concussion) finally return. Winston and Tillman showed a tangible on-field bond pre-injury. Tillman will be a WR4/flex sleeper if he comes back here.

Score Prediction: Browns 24, Chiefs 23

Cincinnati @ Tennessee

Team Totals: Bengals 26, Titans 21

Fantasy’s overall QB2 in per-game points behind only Josh Allen since Week 9, Joe Burrow has arguably been the NFL’s best quarterback over the course of 2024. Burrow ranks No. 3 among qualified QBs in passer rating (107.9) while leading the league in completions (335), passing yards (3,706), and passing TDs (33). Averaging 366 passing yards with a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio over Cincinnati’s last four games, I’m riding with Burrow as an elite QB1 regardless of opponent. … Chase Brown has cleared an 80% playing-time clip in five straight games, averaging 23.2 touches for 123.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns in that span. Tennessee never presents an RB-friendly draw, but Brown’s mammoth usage keeps him matchup-proof.

Cooper Kupp (2021) is the NFL’s only Triple Crown winner since 2005, leading the league in catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. Ja’Marr Chase enters Week 15 six receptions, 149 yards, and six touchdowns ahead of the field. (He’s +750 to win Offensive Player of the Year.) In a lost season, there’s little doubt college teammate Burrow will continue to force Chase the ball. … Tee Higgins is a WR2/3 option facing a Titans defense yielding the NFL’s fewest fantasy receiver points. … Bengals No. 3 WR Andrei Iosivas hasn’t topped 52 yards in a game all season. … In chronological order, Mike Gesicki’s snap rates over his last three appearances are 62%, 44%, and 28%. Gesicki lacks tight end streamer appeal in Nashville.

Especially after Will Levis flopped in Week 14’s gift-wrapped matchup with Jacksonville, confidence in Levis’ Week 15 box-score projections should be very low, even against the Bengals’ swinging-gate defense. Levis hasn’t reached 20 standard-league fantasy points in a single 2024 game. … Tony Pollard continued to assert himself as Tennessee’s alpha RB in last Sunday’s defeat, out-snapping Tyjae Spears 40 to 24 and out-touching Spears 23 to 7. He also had a red-zone touchdown called back via a holding penalty on RG Dillon Radunz. Pollard offers legitimate RB1 upside at home against Cincinnati. Spears lacks playability.

Levis’ 2024 target distribution: Calvin Ridley 64; Pollard 38; Tyler Boyd 35; Chig Okonkwo 27; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 25; Spears 18. … Fresh off a 12-target game, Ridley is an auto-WR2 play against a Bengals defense coughing up the league’s 10th-most fantasy points to wideouts. … This is technically a #RevengeGame for Boyd against the team that drafted him, but Boyd hasn’t been a fantasy factor all year. … Averaging a 70% playing-time clip over Tennessee’s last four games, Okonkwo merits matchup-based TE1 attention facing a Cincy defense surrendering the NFL’s second-most fantasy tight end points. … Westbrook-Ikhine was never anything more than a role player on an unsustainable TD-scoring streak.

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Titans 17

Washington @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Commanders 25, Saints 17.5

The Commanders return from Week 14’s bye for an indoor matchup beneath New Orleans’ Superdome. Fantasy’s overall QB1 in Weeks 12-13, Jayden Daniels is far removed from his midseason rib injury and offers elite-scoring upside with his supporting cast fresh off last week’s break. … Brian Robinson Jr. profiles as a volume workhorse against a Saints defense enemy RBs have clipped for 5.0 yards per carry and the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points. With Austin Ekeler (concussion) still on I.R., threats to Robinson’s workload are minimal. Jeremy McNichols hasn’t reached double-digit touches in an individual game this season.

Daniels’ 2024 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 77; Zach Ertz 70; Noah Brown 55; Ekeler 38; Olamide Zaccheaus 31; Dyami Brown 24; Luke McCaffrey 20; Robinson 16. … This is an eruption spot for McLaurin; the Saints have conceded the league’s sixth-most catches (169) and fifth-most yards (2,264) to wide receivers. McLaurin is fantasy’s WR5 on the year. … Per usual, Ertz is a volume-based TE1 streamer lacking any semblance of big-play ability. … I’m out on Commanders secondary WRs, who lack usage bankability behind McLaurin.

Derek Carr’s broken left hand thrusts 2023 fourth-round pick Jake Haener and 2024 fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler to the forefront of New Orleans’ quarterback situation while highlighting Washington’s D/ST as playable. Expected Week 15 starter Haener stands 6-foot/207, brings zilch with his legs, and has completed an unforgivable 48% of his to-date passes as a pro. … Alvin Kamara piled up 22 touches on a 72% snap rate in Week 14’s win over the Giants, although Kendre Miller (10, 26%) played well enough to earn more usage going forward. I’m sticking with Kamara as a surefire RB1 against a Commanders defense that’s been middling against the run. I’m projecting Miller in the 8-12 touches range here.

Sans Carr, there’s a good chance New Orleans’ passing game falls off a cliff for the rest of the season. Against the Commanders, I expect the Saints to lean on two-wideout, two-tight end sets featuring Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin Austin plus Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. The Saints’ probable pass-game dysfunction puts governors on them all.

Score Prediction: Commanders 27, Saints 10

Baltimore @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Ravens 28.5, Giants 14

The Ravens return from Week 14’s bye to face a Giants defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-highest completion rate (69%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.5), and fourth-highest passer rating (101.1). This is a blow-up spot for Lamar Jackson, who is fantasy’s overall QB1 by nearly a point-and-a-half per game. … New York has coughed up the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy RB points, while Derrick Henry comes off Baltimore’s bye with fresh legs averaging 19.5 touches, 110.2 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Giants All-Pro NT Dexter Lawrence (elbow) is done for the year. The Ravens appear positioned to impose their Week 15 will through Henry, rendering pass-game specialist Justice Hill a non-factor.

Jackson’s 2024 target distribution: Zay Flowers 94; Rashod Bateman 55; Mark Andrews 51; Isaiah Likely 47; Hill 45; Nelson Agholor 28; Henry 14. … By far, Flowers is the favorite to lead Baltimore in Week 15 receiving in a game where his quarterback should go off. It’s an easy dot to connect. … Bateman is nursing a pre-bye knee injury, the extent of which is not yet known. Likely could be Baltimore’s primary box-score beneficiary should Bateman sit against the Giants. … This would’ve been a natural spot for Diontae Johnson to step up, but he’s suspended for conduct detrimental to the team. … Andrews is fantasy’s overall TE6 scorer since Week 6, re-earning every-week TE1 valuation following a painfully slow start.

The Giants are sticking with Drew Lock under center after Lock began Week 14’s game 0-for-9 passing and will open Week 15 with starting LT Jermaine Eluemunor (quad), LG Jon Runyan (ankle), and C John Michael Schmitz (neck) on the shelf. This is a green-light spot for Baltimore’s D/ST. … Nothing stands out positively about Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s matchup with the Ravens, but he did bank career highs in playing-time rate (83%) and target share (21%) in Week 13’s loss to New Orleans and has obviously usurped Devin Singletary as the Giants’ primary back. Tracy is a volume-driven RB2/flex play in a fade-opponent spot.

Lock’s 2024 target distribution: Malik Nabers 25; Wan’Dale Robinson 17; Tracy 14; Darius Slayton 13; Daniel Bellinger 7; Jalin Hyatt 5. … Baltimore has surrendered the NFL’s fifth-most catches (173) and third-most yards (2,302) to enemy wide receivers, giving Nabers opponent-based breakout potential if Lock keeps peppering him with the ball. … Robinson has neither exceeded 51 yards nor hit paydirt since Week 5. … Slayton needs Nabers to flat-out miss games for fantasy relevance. … Bellinger offers desperation TE1 streamer appeal with Theo Johnson (foot) done for the season. Sans Johnson in Week 13, Bellinger turned seven targets into 5/45/0 receiving on a 78% playing-time clip. The Ravens have allowed the league’s seventh-most receptions (75) and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends (825).

Score Prediction: Ravens 35, Giants 13

Dallas @ Carolina

Team Totals: Panthers 23, Cowboys 20

Cooper Rush has yet to reach 18 standard-scoring fantasy points through five starts and could be pulled for Trey Lance at a moment’s notice with Dallas’ season having long past circled the drain. … Rico Dowdle is averaging 22 touches for 120.7 yards over the Cowboys’ last three games, while Carolina has permitted the NFL’s most fantasy points to running backs. … CeeDee Lamb is fantasy’s WR15 in PPR scoring in Rush’s five starts. He’s a WR2 with WR1 upside at Carolina. … Jalen Tolbert and Brandin Cooks worked evenly as the Cowboys’ Nos. 2 and 3 receivers in Week 14’s loss to Cincinnati. They combined for three receiving yards on six targets. … Finally back from his concussion against the Bengals, Jake Ferguson ran the second-most routes among Cowboys pass catchers and relegated Luke Schoonmaker to the bench. No defense has yielded more fantasy TE points than Carolina.

Although Bryce Young’s tape has improved considerably over the last two months, his box-score results have remained unremarkable as an undersized pocket passer with a subpar supporting cast. Young has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one of 10 appearances this season. … Injuries to Jonathon Brooks (ACL) and Raheem Blackshear (chest) set up Chuba Hubbard for a monster Week 15 workload as a home-favorite bellcow back facing a Cowboys defense surrendering the NFL’s third-most fantasy RB points. … Over the last two weeks, Adam Thielen has banked receiving lines of 8/99/1 and 9/102/0 on target totals of 10 and 11 while playing 74% of Carolina’s offensive snaps. He’s rekindled the voluminous rapport Thielen and Young established last season. The Cowboys have given up the NFL’s eighth-most catches (164) and 10th-most yards (2,016) to wide receivers. … Xavier Legette hasn’t cleared 60 yards since Week 4 and has done so once all season. … Jalen Coker is due back from his quad injury to presumably cut into David Moore’s playing time. … Tommy Tremble played 11 more Week 14 snaps than Ja’Tavion Sanders, although Sanders ran seven more routes. This is a fantasy-value-deleting tight end committee.

Score Prediction: Panthers 21, Cowboys 17

N.Y. Jets @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Jets 22, Jaguars 18.5

Having finally snapped his multi-year sub-300-yard passing streak while compiling a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio over his last six games, Aaron Rodgers is two-QB-league viable against a Jaguars defense permitting the NFL’s third-highest completion rate (69.6%) plus league highs in yards per pass attempt (8.2) and passer rating (107.5). … As Breece Hall (knee) sounds unlikely to play again this year, Gang Green’s backfield looks destined for a near 50/50 split after Braelon Allen handled 15 touches on 37 snaps versus Isaiah Davis’ 13 touches on 36 snaps in Week 14’s loss to Miami. Jacksonville has hemorrhaged the NFL’s second-most fantasy RB points, rendering Allen an upside RB2 and Davis flex playable.

Garrett Wilson put repeated clown suits on Jalen Ramsey in their Week 14 matchup and has drawn double-digit targets in three of his last five appearances. Only three NFL teams have yielded more receiving yards to WRs than Jacksonville (2,278). … Over his last five games as a Jet, Davante Adams is averaging 10.8 targets, 6.6 receptions, 73.8 yards, and 0.6 TDs. He’s a shoo-in WR2 starter with WR1 upside. … Back from I.R., Allen Lazard immediately retook Jets No. 3 receiver duties in Week 14’s loss to the Dolphins. Lazard drew one target, however, and will struggle to carve out a voluminous role behind Wilson and Adams. … Jets TE Tyler Conklin has finished below 50 yards in eight straight games.

The Jets’ D/ST is streamable against Mac Jones, a statue whose TD-to-INT ratio over the past two seasons is 12:17. … Tank Bigsby was Jacksonville’s primary back in Week 14’s win over Tennessee, out-snapping Travis Etienne 31 to 28 and out-touching him 19 to 8. Bigsby has been the Jags’ best rusher all year, yet Etienne remains preferred in passing situations, running 18 routes to Bigsby’s nine against the Titans. Bigsby and Etienne’s ongoing committee usage renders both uninspiring flex bets in what profiles as a low-scoring game.

Brian Thomas Jr. leads the Jaguars in targets (32), catches (21), yards (271), and first-down conversions (12) on Jones’ 2024 throws. The Jets seem likely to be without top CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring) again here. … Evan Engram has caught at least four balls in eight straight games. He’s hit paydirt once during that span and is averaging fewer than eight yards per reception but still offers a floor in full-PPR scoring. … Parker Washington worked as Jacksonville’s No. 2 wide receiver behind Thomas in Week 14’s victory. On the season, Washington has caught seven of 15 targets from Jones for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Score Prediction: Jets 23, Jaguars 17

Miami @ Houston

Team Totals: Texans 25, Dolphins 22

Scorers of 30+ points in three of their last four games and now visiting Houston’s NRG Stadium dome, the Dolphins’ offense should stay hot on the back of Tua Tagovailoa, who is fantasy’s QB3 over the last month. In that four-game stretch, Tua is completing 75% of his throws with an 11:0 TD-to-INT ratio as the conductor of a decidedly pass-first attack. He’s an upside QB1. … Miami’s run game has been nonexistent lately, and that doesn’t figure to change on the road against a stout Houston defensive front that’s rested coming off Week 14’s bye. De’Von Achane’s RB1 playability in PPR leagues remains tied almost entirely to his passing-game role; he ranks second among NFL running backs in targets (71), catches (63), and receiving yards (474), and first in receiving TDs (6). Raheem Mostert (hip) may return here, but only to force Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson Jr. back down the depth chart.

This game’s indoor environment plus Houston’s allowance of the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy WR points should create optimism Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can build on their big Week 14s. The Texans have permitted league highs in touchdown passes (26) and 40+ yard completions (10). Hill is fantasy’s WR5 over the last month; Waddle is FF’s WR12. … Jonnu Smith remains fantasy’s overall TE1 since Week 7, while Texans sideline-to-sideline LB Azeez Al-Shaair’s (suspension) absence will be felt in pass coverage over the middle.

The Texans return from their bye in position to feature Joe Mixon as home favorites after Mixon averaged 24.6 touches for 110.1 yards and 1.3 TDs over Houston’s previous seven games. Miami has played middling and ultimately unimposing run defense. … Fantasy’s QB25 in per-game scoring, C.J. Stroud only warrants starter valuation in two-quarterback leagues. The Dolphins have surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest passing touchdowns (14).

Nico Collins used Houston’s bye to get further removed from October’s hamstring injury after parlaying 20 targets into 13 catches, 211 yards, and a touchdown combined in Weeks 12-13. Last week, both Garrett Wilson (7/114/0) and Davante Adams (9/109/1) showed this Dolphins secondary can be had by big-time WRs. … Among fantasy’s most frustrating commodities, Tank Dell can only be characterized as a boom-bust WR3/flex play based on to-date results. … Disappointing slot man John Metchie hadn’t fully separated from Robert Woods before the open date. … Dalton Schultz has hit paydirt once all season and topped 52 yards in two of 13 games. He’s a touchdown-or-bust streamer who hasn’t been scoring.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Texans 24

Indianapolis @ Denver

Team Totals: Broncos 24, Colts 20

The Colts come off Week 14’s bye with an offensive line rejuvenated by expected returns of LT Bernhard Raimann (knee), C Tanor Bortolini (concussion), and RT Braden Smith (personal), while Josh Downs’ (shoulder) anticipated availability is big for the efficiency of Indianapolis’ passing game. Broncos No. 2 CB Riley Moss (knee) appears unlikely to play. Anthony Richardson’s game-to-game box-score results have nevertheless been so up and down that he can only be viewed as a boom-bust QB1 gamble, especially against a Denver defense allowing the NFL’s second-fewest points per game (18.0). … The Broncos’ stout defensive front has stymied enemy backs to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry and five rushing TDs in 13 games. Playing nearly 100% of Indy’s offensive snaps lately, however, Jonathan Taylor’s high-volume workload projection is secure enough for confident RB1 treatment.

Richardson’s 2024 target distribution: Michael Pittman Jr. 56; Alec Pierce 35; Downs 30; Adonai Mitchell 24; Kylen Granson 15; Taylor and Mo Alie-Cox 10. … Pittman leads the Colts in targets, catches (33), and yards (411) on Richardson’s throws but is Indy’s likeliest receiver to draw Patrick Surtain’s Week 15 coverage. … Pierce’s ridiculous 21.8-yard aDOT prevents him from catching layup targets and renders him one of the NFL’s most big-play-dependent wide receivers. The Broncos have allowed the league’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7). … Downs is a needle mover as an individual player but has caught only 17 passes from Richardson all season. He’s still my favorite Colts pass catcher to pair with Richardson in Week 15 DFS tournament stacks. … Colts TEs continue to not matter at all.

This is an exciting spot for Bo Nix against a Colts defense yielding the NFL’s second-highest completion rate (70.4%), sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6), and 10th-highest passer rating (97.1). Fantasy’s QB10 on the season, Nix is a shoo-in QB1 starter here. … Even in a plus draw, I’m fading the Broncos’ three-way backfield weave of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime here. McLaughlin was rewarded for showing the hot hand in Denver’s last game, amassing 15 touches in Week 13’s win over Cleveland. Williams (5 touches) and Estime (3) were left in the dust. McLaughlin remains an unreliable flex option.

Nix’s 2024 target distribution: Courtland Sutton 104; Williams 50; Devaughn Vele 45; Lil’Jordan Humphrey 42; Troy Franklin 41; Marvin Mims Jr. 30; McLaughlin 20. … From Weeks 8-13, Ja’Marr Chase was the only NFL receiver to outscore Sutton in PPR points. Sutton is a WR2 with WR1 upside here. … Vele, Franklin, Mims, and Humphrey almost evenly shared Nos. 2-5 wideout roles in Week 13’s victory, and none of them exceeded five targets against the Browns. You’re on your own throwing darts at this rotational mess. … No Broncos tight end has been an even remotely bankable box-score factor this season.

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Colts 16

Buffalo @ Detroit

Team Totals: Lions 28.5, Bills 26

The extreme favorite for NFL MVP at this point — he’s -400 on DraftKings — Josh Allen visits Detroit’s Ford Field dome for a monster-totaled game (54.5) with WR Keon Coleman (wrist) and TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) due back from multi-week absences. A high-floor and high-ceiling bet, Allen has 20+ fantasy points in eight straight starts. … The Bills abandoned the run in Week 14’s track meet versus the Rams; James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis essentially shared time, and none topped eight touches. Cook remains Buffalo’s go-to guy in the backfield but draws a discouraging Week 15 draw against the Lions, who are holding opposing backs to 3.9 yards per carry and the NFL’s second-fewest receiving yards (295).

In Week 14’s loss to the Rams, Amari Cooper drew 14 targets and 246 Air Yards, the most by any wide receiver in a game all year. The Lions have submitted the league’s second-most catches (191) and second-most yards (2,417) to enemy WRs. … Khalil Shakir enters Week 15 ranked No. 10 in the NFL in yards per route run (2.41). He’s an upside WR3 with a secure role in what projects as a high-scoring environment. … With Coleman and Kincaid set for return, passing-game usage for them, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and Dawson Knox is hard to project. Cooper and Shakir stand out as Buffalo’s only confident pass-catcher bets.

Jared Goff’s Week 15 outlook is improved by LT Taylor Decker’s (knee) expected return from a two-game absence plus injuries to Bills CB Rasul Douglas (knee) and FS Taylor Rapp (neck). This game’s high shootout probability indoors helps solidify Goff as a safe-floor fantasy play. … Over his last six appearances, David Montgomery is averaging 17.5 touches for 88 yards and 0.8 TDs per game. The Bills have surrendered the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. … Buffalo has conceded a league-high 74 receptions and the NFL’s third-most receiving yards (579) to enemy backs. Jahmyr Gibbs is the Lions’ most dynamic pass-catching running back, although Montgomery is no slouch in his own right.

This is an adverse spot for big-play specialist Jameson Williams on paper; the Bills’ zone defense has yielded the NFL’s second-fewest completions of 20+ yards (28). … This is likewise no pushover matchup for Amon-Ra St. Brown, primarily a slot receiver squaring off with elite Bills slot CB Taron Johnson. This game’s environment and huge total should keep Williams and St. Brown locked into fantasy lineups; we are picking nits here. … No. 3 WR Tim Patrick logged a 66% snap rate in Week 14’s win, drawing seven targets and delivering a 6/43/2 stat line against Green Bay. Patrick profiles as a touchdown-reliant WR4/flex option. … Sam LaPorta has been a TD-dependent floor play all year, failing to clear 70 yards in all 12 appearances. The Bills have allowed the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy TE points.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Lions 27

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 24, Steelers 18.5

Still missing top WR George Pickens (hamstring), Russell Wilson has his work cut out for a productive performance on the road against a Philly defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-lowest completion rate (61.7%), a league-low 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s seventh-lowest passer rating (82.2). Wilson is barely justifiable in two-quarterback leagues here. … Najee Harris out-touched Jaylen Warren 16 to 11 in Week 14’s win over Cleveland, yet Warren out-snapped Harris 34 to 27. Only three NFL defenses have allowed fewer fantasy RB points than the Eagles. Harris and Warren are both low-floor flex options this week.

Sans Pickens, Van Jefferson led Steelers pass catchers in Week 14 snaps and routes run against Cleveland but drew one target and has cleared 50 yards once in his last 30 games. … In order, Scotty Miller, Calvin Austin, Ben Skowronek, and Mike Williams formed a Nos. 2-5 WR rotation against the Browns. None of them exceeded four targets. The Eagles are permitting the league’s third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. … Pat Freiermuth looks like Pittsburgh’s best pass-catcher bet at this point. Volume has been an issue for Freiermuth, but he’s hyper-efficiently parlayed 24 targets into 22 catches, 276 yards, and three TDs over the Steelers’ last seven games. Freiermuth belongs atop the TE1/2 fringe.

Winners of nine straight, the Eagles host Pittsburgh as the NFL’s run-heaviest team wherein Saquon Barkley needs to average 121 rushing yards per game over the final month to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season record (2,105). The Steelers don’t offer a favorable run-defense matchup but represent Barkley’s foremost stretch-run obstacle before he encounters Washington, Dallas, and the Giants in Weeks 16-18. … Jalen Hurts is fantasy’s QB4 over the course of the season and fantasy’s QB1 since Philadelphia’s Week 5 bye. Hurts’ rushing production and elite supporting cast render him matchup-proof on a weekly basis.

A.J. Brown is again a #SqueakyWheel after complaining about the Eagles’ low-volume passing offense following Week 14’s win over Carolina. Accordingly, OC Kellen Moore openly pledged to design more plays to get Brown the ball. On the season, Brown is averaging career highs in Success Rate (68.2%), catch rate (73%), and yards per target (12.7). … DeVonta Smith returned from his two-week hamstring absence to net a 4/37/1 receiving line in Week 14’s victory. The Eagles’ run-heavy nature is keeping Smith in WR3 territory against a Steelers defense that’s been middling in production allowed to enemy wideouts. … Grant Calcaterra has operated as a full-time tight end in place of Dallas Goedert in five games this year. Calcaterra’s receiving lines in those contests are 3/16/1, 5/30/0, 3/58/0, 1/5/0, and 4/67/0. Goedert (knee) is likely done for the regular season.

Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Steelers 17

New England @ Arizona

Team Totals: Cardinals 26, Patriots 20

Drake Maye visits the Cardinals having netted 19+ standard-league fantasy points in five of eight starts buoyed by Maye averaging 41.6 rushing yards per game. Arizona has permitted the NFL’s fourth-highest completion rate (69.4%) and ninth-most yards per pass attempt (7.4). Maye offers a ton of upside here. … His legs fresh after Week 14’s bye, Rhamondre Stevenson is a sexy RB2 play against a Cardinals defense that got clapped for 5.9 yards per carry, 238 total yards, and two touchdowns by Seahawks running backs last week. In New England’s pre-bye loss to Indianapolis, Stevenson piled up 21 touches on a 78% snap rate.

On Maye’s 2024 throws, Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in targets (53), catches (38), yards (396), and first-down conversions (22). Henry has drawn eight or more targets in four of New England’s last five games. … Prior to Week 14’s bye, Kayshon Boutte was running as the Patriots’ clear-cut No. 1 wideout yet hasn’t reached 60 receiving yards in a game all year. … Kendrick Bourne and Pop Douglas have been splitting Nos. 2-3 receiver duties with underwhelming results. … The Patriots’ two-tight end usage featuring Austin Hooper alongside Henry works against the box-score cause of their ancillary wide receivers.

In three games since Arizona’s Week 11 bye, Kyler Murray is fantasy’s QB14. He’s cleared 300 passing yards once all season, while New England presents a middling quarterback matchup. Murray isn’t an exciting QB1 play here. … James Conner banked touch counts of 20 and 22 over Arizona’s last two games and against the Pats is a significant home-favorite workhorse back who plays on all three downs. Conner profiles as a safe-floor RB2 starter.

Trey McBride has drawn 41 targets over Arizona’s last three games, an unheard-of sum for any tight end. McBride remains on the hook for positive-touchdown regression, having scored zero 2024 receiving TDs despite ranking 11th in the NFL in red-zone targets (15) and ninth in targets inside the 10-yard line (8). … Likely to draw shadow coverage from Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison Jr. is a WR3 play. He’s cleared 65 yards twice all season. … Cardinals No. 2 WR Michael Wilson has cleared 65 yards in one of 13 games.

Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Cardinals 23

Tampa Bay @ L.A. Chargers

Team Totals: Chargers 24, Bucs 21.5

Week 15 sets up as one of Baker Mayfield’s toughest spots of the season against a suffocating Chargers defense allowing a league-low 15.9 points per game. Bolts DC Jesse Minter’s unit has yielded the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6) and fifth-lowest QB rating (81.3), while crucial Bucs offensive pieces LT Tristan Wirfs (foot/knee), WR Mike Evans (hamstring), and WR Sterling Shepard (foot) each missed most of the practice week. Baker has been a box-score stud, but I’m considering QB1/2 streamers in place of him. … Likely sans Bucky Irving (back/hip), the Bucs figure to turn to Rachaad White as their lead back and Sean Tucker as an 8-11 touches power complement off the bench. The Chargers are near full strength up front defensively with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa on track to play, however, and have limited fantasy run-game production throughout 2024. White remains a decent volume-based RB2 starter. Tucker is a low-floor flex option.

Evans and Shepard still appear on track to play, and Evans has a lot to play for. In addition to looking to strengthen the Bucs’ place atop the NFC South standings, Evans needs to average 102.5 yards over the final four games to hit 1,000 for a league-record 11th straight season. As the Chargers have posed a middling matchup for enemy wide receivers, most of Evans’ Week 15 fantasy appeal is narrative-driven (right behind his own individual talent, of course). … Rookie Jalen McMillan has taken over as Tampa’s No. 2 wideout with Shepard at No. 3. McMillan parlayed a career-high seven targets into 4/59/2 receiving with Evans drawing all kinds of coverage in last week’s win over the Raiders, but McMillan has yet to deliver a 60-yard receiving game on the year. He’s a WR3/flex option against a stingy Bolts backend. Shepard is a WR4/flex. … The air went out of the balloon for Cade Otton when Evans got healthy. The Chargers have allowed the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy TE points.

Justin Herbert will gut out a left leg contusion and an alleged high ankle sprain after taking a helmet to the knee in Week 14 while also nursing ongoing plantar fasciitis. Although the Bucs have presented a gorgeous matchup for enemy passing games all year, my Week 15 box-score concerns regarding Herbert stem from potentially limited mobility, top WR Ladd McConkey’s (shoulder/knee) uncertain health status, and top TE Will Dissly‘s (shoulder) probable inactivity. I’m valuing Herbert as a boom-bust QB1 gamble whose bust odds will increase considerably should McConkey sit out again. … The Chargers’ running back room remains a mess sans J.K. Dobbins (knee, I.R.); Gus Edwards has been far too inefficient to warrant large workloads, has no receiving role, and got out-snapped by rookie pass-game specialist Kimani Vidal in Week 14’s loss to Kansas City. I don’t see either as startable.

McConkey will be a legitimate WR2 with WR1 upside if active; opposing wideouts have smoked the Bucs for the NFL’s third-most catches (179) and ninth-most yards (2,033), while Tampa Bay is without starting safeties SS Jordan Whitehead (pec, I.R.) and FS Antoine Winfield (knee) plus top reserve safety Mike Edwards (hamstring). … Josh Palmer has been quiet all season but stepped into No. 1 wideout duties in place of McConkey in last week’s defeat and would stay relevant based on matchup and opportunity if McConkey sits again. … Quentin Johnston also needs McConkey to miss to warrant WR3/flex discussion. On the field, the story never changes for Johnston, a tantalizing talent with all kinds of ball skills and route-running limitations. … Stone Smartt is the next man up at pass-catching tight end in place of Dissly. The Bucs have permitted the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. A third-year UDFA out of Old Dominion, Smartt is built like a rocked-up wide receiver at 6-foot-4, 226 with freaky athleticism (4.62 forty, 40-inch vertical, 10-foot-8 broad jump). Smartt played quarterback early in college before converting to receiver at ODU.

Score Prediction: Chargers 20, Bucs 17

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Seattle

Team Totals: Packers 24.5, Seahawks 21.5

The Packers only ran 45 plays in last week’s divisional bout and, in four games out of their bye, have registered the second-lowest pass rate (47.1%) and a -8.6% Pass Rate Over Expectation (29th) with Josh Jacobs plowing forward for touch counts of 22 (RB5), 26 (RB2), 23 (RB5), and 18 (RB4); Jordan Love has averaged 17.4 points per game (QB18) despite leading the league with 10.4 yards per attempt in that span due to negligent volume. Seattle’s front seven has turned the corner in limiting enemy RBs to 4.0 yards per carry (22nd) for a single touchdown since Week 9, but Jacobs’ 10 targets to Emanuel Wilson’s zero the past month keep the former elevated as a low-end RB1 — the Seahawks have permitted 6/39/0, 5/41/0, 5/44/1, and 9/51/1 receiving to backfields out of their own Week 10 bye. I’m expecting a slower contest decided in the trenches (rendering Love to a Superflex play) given that Green Bay’s four losses this year have come against Super Bowl contenders in the Eagles (by 5), Vikings (2), and Lions (10 and 3).

The team’s target tree only gets larger with Romeo Doubs cleared from the concussion protocol, and Jayden Reed’s three performances with 20% of Green Bay’s targets notably came with Doubs absent in two of them. Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald also leans into man coverage concepts (31.4%, 10th), which Reed has struggled against for 12.1 yards per catch (67th) and 1.11 Yards Per Route Run (84th) — for reference, he’s destroyed zone for 17.4 YPC (10th) and 2.98 YPRR (fifth). His volume and ceiling are admittedly concerning as a WR4/FLEX. Doubs leads the Packers with a 24% target share from Love this year (for managers who prefer the safer route). … Christian Watson’s and Dontayvion Wicks’ timeshare was quietly an afterthought in the four games before Doubs was injured with Watson running a route on 78% < 64% < 73% < 71% of dropbacks over Wicks (28% < 48% < 36% < 39%). The latter is rotated enough to warrant darts in showdown when the Big Four are available, but Watson is the more comfortable WR3/FLEX in season-long leagues for his ongoing role. … Even if Luke Musgrave (ankle) were activated from injured reserve, Tucker Kraft was the TE10 in per-week points (8) with a 12.3% target share (17th) in the four games Musgrave played. Trey McBride (12/133/0 and 7/70/0) and Tyler Conklin (4/32/0) hauled in four catches against the Seahawks in each of their last three games.

Similar to Green Bay’s approach post-bye, Seattle registered their lowest PROE in any game all year during their massive divisional win against Arizona to stay atop the NFC West. That outcome can be attributed entirely to OC Ryan Grubb, who spammed guard-tackle counters to breathe life into the team’s previously anemic run blocking, and Zach Charbonnet, who forced nine missed tackles with 137 yards after contact (!). Green Bay has contained RBs to 3.8 YPC (28th) and 1.1 yards before contact per attempt (28th) the past month, but great play-calling trumps great defense, and Charbonnet (a former five-star recruit under then-Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh) has spiked 19/69/1 (RB8), 21/107/2 (RB7), and 29/193/2 (RB1) in three starts for Kenneth Walker, who has yet to practice since initially suffering his ankle/calf injury. With four consecutive finishes outside the top 18 QBs, Geno Smith logically takes a backseat as a QB2 streamer in any run-first plan.

Potentially without nickel CB/S Javon Bullard (ankle) and his backup Corey Ballentine (knee, questionable), Green Bay’s secondary is short the bodies to defend Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 795 receiving yards from the slot are 274 more than next-closest player (Khalil Shakir). JSN has additionally lapped DK Metcalf, a WR2/3 in his current form, in both raw receiving yards (343 to 244) and YPRR (3.06 to 2.05) since the latter returned from injury. I’m not worried about JSN’s opportunity in season-long leagues; as it pertains to his ceiling in showdown, however, note that Packers DC Jeff Hafley has schemed zone coverage on 76% (fourth) of snaps, which Smith-Njigba has earned just 17.6% of his targets against for 1.57 YPRR (compared to his elite 2.82 YPRR against man). All-Pro CB Jaire Alexander’s (knee) absence boosts DK’s on-paper outlook. … The cliff came fast for 32-year-old Tyler Lockett, who’s peaked at 20 receiving yards in five of his last six games. His outlier 3/63/1 performance sandwiched between those duds leaves the light on in showdown. … You wouldn’t know it from his box scores, but Noah Fant’s run a route on 74% < 71% of dropbacks since returning in Week 13. With at least three catches in six consecutive appearances, Fant’s floor is tolerable on one-game offerings (and desperate streaming spots). A.J. Barner (11 routes the past two games) and Pharaoh Brown (six) have seen three targets (including one inside the red zone) apiece as Seattle’s TE2/3.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 21, Packers 17

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football — 8:00 PM ET

Chicago @ Minnesota

Team Totals: Bears 18, Vikings 25.5

Caleb Williams was only under pressure on nine dropbacks (28.1%) against the Niners but ate seven sacks for -3 first-half net yards passing; he made up ground with 107 yards and two touchdowns in two-quarters worth of garbage time. His outlook for 1-QB leagues against Vikings DC Brian Flores’ league-high blitz rate is admittedly bleak and worth ignoring. In two-game slates, however, where we’re accepting that volatility to construct unique lineups, it’s worth noting Williams has completed 68.9% (fifth) of his passes for two touchdowns and zero turnovers against extra pass rushers since interim HC Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties. … D’Andre Swift handled 15 out of 21 backfield touches (71.4% share) sans Roschon Johnson (concussion), who’s already been ruled out for Monday night. Unfortunately, Swift has been stripped of any ceiling under Brown with a negligent 7% target share — he was averaging 10.5% of Chicago’s targets under former OC Shane Waldron — and, most recently, one target (4.2%) to Travis Homer’s three (12.5%). Swift has failed to reach 40 rushing yards as an RB3/FLEX in three consecutive games.

Rome Odunze hauled in both of Caleb’s TDs trailing, at the time he scored, 24-0 and 31-6, but it was D.J. Moore who quietly led the team with 33.3% of their targets. Keenan Allen has also out-targeted Odunze 36 to 30 in their four games with Brown pulling the strings. Moore offers the highest floor of the bunch for his concerted 6.8-yard depth of target, but Allen’s on-paper matchup is stronger (if only choosing one) for Minnesota’s propensity to leak the fifth-most per-week points (13.1) to the slot. Odunze is an intriguing FLEX for #Skol’s 24 completions (third) allowed 20 yards deep. … Cole Kmet’s 10 targets (21.2%) from Week 12 (oddly in this same matchup) appear to be an anomaly given his tallies of three (9.6%), three (8.3%), and zero in three surrounding games under Brown. I prefer streaming his position to starting him against this Vikings unit that only allowed receiving scores to George Kittle (Week 2) and Tucker Kraft (Week 4) all year.

Bricklayer Gregg Rosenthal rightfully capitulated on Sam Darnold’s MVP-caliber season, leading the NFL in 20-yard completions (27) and performances (10) with multiple pass touchdowns. Previously a unit to fear, Chicago’s defense practically laid down against Darnold (21.1 fantasy points), Jared Goff (16.9), and Brock Purdy (22.1) for a combined 9.3 YPA in their last three games. … Aaron Jones exploded for 25/129/1 from scrimmage in his last start against Chicago (Week 12), who’s been bulldozed for 4.79 yards per carry (fifth) and the sixth-highest rate of 15-yard runs; 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo recorded gains of 30, 27, and 23 yards last week. Out-touching Ty Chandler 49 to 6 since being acquired by the Vikings, Cam Akers is merely the player to stash behind Jones for the fantasy postseason (and has been ranked in our One Injury Away list accordingly). He’ll only be optimal in two-game slates if the Vikings take a large lead.

Justin Jefferson (finally) found positive-TD regression with 7/132/2 against the Falcons alongside Jordan Addison, who popped for 8/133/3 himself including a 47-yard DPI drawn in the second quarter. He’s actually out-targeted Jefferson 33 (26.2% share) to 28 (22.2%) over the last month with a whopping 42.6% of the team’s Air Yards — peripherals that could lead to Addison outright out-performing Jefferson in Showdown. … Jalen Nailor (four), Brandon Powell (one), and Trent Sherfield (zero) have combined for five targets in Minnesota’s last three games behind T.J. Hockenson, who’s ramped up to a 73% route rate in that time. The Bears have additionally been destroyed by TEs in as many games, failing to cover Hockenson (7/114/0), Sam LaPorta (3/6/2), and George Kittle (6/151/0) of late. For Showdown purposes, note that Josh Oliver returned from injury for a 26-yard catch and more routes (8) than Johnny Mundt (2).

Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Bears 27

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football — 8:30 PM ET

Atlanta @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Falcons 24.5, Raiders 19.5

Kirk Cousins’ 0:8 TD-to-INT ratio during Atlanta’s four-game losing streak, while pitiful on the surface, came against four defenses (Saints, Broncos, Chargers, and Vikings) who have not only pressured QBs on over 30% of dropbacks but are also allowing fewer points than expected to enemy QBs; the Raiders rank 29th in pressure rate (27.5%) with the ninth-softest DvP. It’s uncomfortable, but those numbers leave Cousins’ on-paper outlook as one to target for both Superflex leagues and any two-game contests (at low ownership). I do not expect No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. to start until/unless the Falcons are eliminated from the postseason. … Tyler Allgeier popped up for 9/63/1 rushing on 13 snaps (18%) in Minnesota but it’s Bijan Robinson who’s commanded 32 (78% share) and 24 touches (72.7%) in two games out of Atlanta’s bye. De’Von Achane (4.2 yard per carry), Jaleel McLaughlin (6.2), Isiah Pacheco (6.2), and Rachaad White (5.2) — a handful of the league’s most inefficient between-the-tackle runners this year — all had their way with the Raiders on the ground in the last month.

Drake London’s 27.6% target share in four games since exiting early against the Cowboys ranks eighth in the league, seeing 12, 7, 16, and 10 raw targets. Las Vegas (14.3) only trails the Chiefs (16.6) in their points per game allowed to slot receivers, where London’s intermittently run 40% of his routes. … A team-high 52.6% of Darnell Mooney’s catches have been hauled in 10 yards downfield, where the Raiders have been scorched for 76 completions (fifth) all year. Assuming Cousins is unperturbed from the pocket, Mooney projects as a big-play WR3/FLEX. … Droppable in 10-team leagues for his 63% route rate (for two total catches) the past three games, Kyle Pitts has objectively taken a backseat to Ray-Ray McCloud, who’s provided 6/46/0, 4/95/0, and 8/98/0 in that span as an intriguing WR5 and Showdown option to spend down for.

“It doesn’t look good” for Aidan O’Connell after he left Week 14 with an air cast on his leg. Backup Desmond Ridder‘s 4.7 per-game carries in 10 full starts for the Falcons in 2023 gift him a higher floor than perceived in this #Revenge spot. HC Raheem Morris’ unit has struggled to contain mobile QBs for 14/57/0 (Justin Fields) and 13/85/1 (Jalen Hurts) rushing. … A 2022 UDFA and 39th percentile athlete (lol) who toiled away on Las Vegas’ practice squad the past two years, Sincere McCormick has emerged out of nowhere to average over 5.0 yards per carry in each of his three appearances for Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad, I.R.) including the most rushing yards (64) the Chiefs allowed to any RB all season. Most recently handling 89.2% (17) of the team’s backfield touches over Ameer Abdullah (2, 10.5%), McCormick can box out Mattison as an every-down RB2/3 even if the latter’s active.

Raiders interim OC Scott Turner surprised with 2-TE sets on 67% of their snaps in Week 14, the highest mark for any team all season. While that personnel allowed Michael Mayer to record season-highs in routes (68%) and targets (9, 25.7%), it was Brock Bowers who suffered for his lowest target share (14.2%) since Week 3, even being removed on multiple 3rd-and-short situations (including once inside the 10-yard line). He remains a tremendous on-paper play against Morris’ tried and true zone coverage, which he’s earned a position-high 29.4% of his targets against for 2.49 Yards Per Route Run (fifth). Unfortunately, Getsy’s ignorance cannot be accounted for beyond that, creating leverage for Mayer in both dynasty and two-game slates. … Regardless of how the team’s TEs are deployed, Jakobi Meyers stands out as a strong WR2 with 32.6% < 32.3% < 28.5% of Las Vegas’ targets the last three weeks, out-targeting Bowers 74 to 69 in their eight games played without Davante Adams (Jets). For Showdown sickos, note that Tre Tucker has recorded a 58-yard touchdown and sailed 50-yard bomb over his head the past two games sans WR D.J. Turner (I.R.)

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Raiders 21