Becoming a superforecaster, decision science for better human predictions - Pavel Atanasov-the data scientist show#036

The Data Scientist Show

Pavel is a decision scientist and co-founder at Pytho, using decision science to measure and improve human judgment & prediction. He has a phd in psychology and decision science from the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on crowd predictions. If you like the show subscribe to the channel and give us a 5-star review. Subscribe to Daliana's newsletter on www.dalianaliu.com/ for more on data science.

Daliana's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dalianaliu/

Daliana's Twitter: https://twitter.com/DalianaLiu

Pavel's twitter: https://twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov

Superforecasting book, based on the Good Judgment Project: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718

Blogs about forecasting:

Vox's Future Perfect series: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect

Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/

Highlights:

(00:01:10) how he got into decision science

(00:14:38) what makes someone a super forecaster

(00:16:20) three elements of becoming a super forecaster

(00:24:37) how to effectively update our opinions

00:30:05 how he designed experiments to find out what was a better system

(00:48:27) why humans sometimes are better than algorithm

(01:14:50) how to collect data and information better

(01:33:25) why you should quit

(01:42:30) the future of decision science