BIGGEST RISK with Jamison Manwaring

Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

J Darrin Gross:

I'd like to ask you, Jamison Manwaring what is the BIGGEST RISK?

Jamison Manwaring:

The biggest risk that I see today is continued oversupply of housing. And we always go back to econ 101, that it's supply and demand. And we have a lot of demand in our markets that we cover for housing. There are not enough people who can afford to buy a home, so more and more people are renting. But we've built a lot of apartments also. So if the supply of new apartments is stronger than the demand, then price either stays the same or can potentially move down. And so as I'm looking out the next few years, it really is when this new supply starts to go away and we get to more of an equilibrium with our supply and demand. The past few years, the biggest risk has been what would happen with interest rates, and where do we where do we land? And I think now we've kind of gone through that. Right now, what I'm looking at is future supply, what will happen in 2025 and as a appears right now, 2026 2728 the demand, the supply falls off a cliff. I do think, besides the the supply, what happens with insurance, is a hot topic right now, because we just saw what happened in with the fires in California, we're having a big blizzard right now on the southeast that is, is freezing people, and it's going to cause cause problems. And insurance is in some people think insurance is kind of a broken model when it comes to commercial real estate and how many and how you make insurance work. In some cases, when you buy an older building in Arizona, you might get one bid from an insurance broker, and that's all you can find one company who will will put insurance on the 1960s building, even if the building is all up to code and has updated electrical panels and other things, maybe one, one person, so one company where six, seven years ago, you'd have three or four quotes. So insurance is in a really precarious spot. And I do know it's hard in some places to get insurance. In Florida and Texas, with the hurricanes, and now with California, so that that we think it, I think it'll figure itself out, and whether that means higher premiums or or adjusting risks in other ways, so that there'll, there'll be a marketplace. But it is definitely a hot topic in something if you're an investor or an operator, you need to stay on top of because it's a changing landscape right now.