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This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investme ...
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Donald Trump has promised to slash the US’s high prescription medication prices by as much as 80 per cent with an executive order that seeks to force other countries to pay more for their medicines.“Americans will no longer be forced to pay almost three times more for the exact same medicines, often made in the exact same factories,” the order said…
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This week, let's talk about the great wealth transfer, what this means for the economy, and why millennials are expected to become the wealthiest generation in history. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways…
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Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its economy has surpassed most expectations. Last year, Russia’s economy grew more than the United States and Europe and on top of that Russian unemployment is at a record low. What is causing this growth and how are wartime economies different? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to…
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For decades, the American consumer has powered not just the world's biggest economy but the entire global economy. According to the World Bank – Americans make up around one third of global consumer spending but are only 4% of the global population. We shouldn't be too surprised by this – Americans are amongst the most productive workers in the wor…
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In the wake of Trump's liberation day tariffs, stocks, bonds and the US dollar collapsed all at once as investors started dumping American assets. Some commentators argued that China might be behind the selling to put the US government under pressure. In this week's podcast let's discuss if it is wise to sell US assets should investors demand a ris…
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Americans have ben rushing to buy new cars as President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and car parts remains in effect despite the deferral of other country-based taxes that were announced last week. Analysts are predicting a drop in vehicle sales for 2025, higher new and used car prices, and increased industry costs of more than $100 billion…
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President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April second were more severe than the market expected. On top of a 10 per cent universal minimum tariff, the new regime includes significantly higher tariffs for most major trading partners and brings US effective tariff rates to levels we have not seen since the early 1900s. How will Trump's…
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Elon Musk once described competition for his businesses as non-existent, but today the two businesses that underpin his corporate empire - Tesla and SpaceX, are facing more and more competition. In todays video we examine if Elon Musk's business empire is collapsing? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivat…
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Birth rates are plummeting worldwide – and while this might seem like nothing new – as it has been the case in developed countries for quite some time. The thing that is interesting is that we are seeing declining birth rates everywhere and the standard explanations that you have heard in the past don’t really hold up.Patrick's Books:Statistics For…
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Saudi Arabia's Neom megaprojects are running into major financial problems according to The Wall Street Journal.After more than $50 billion dollars has been spent the fantasy city has collided with reality.Costs have soared, delays are constant, and the capital expenditure estimates to complete the projects by 2080 have ballooned to $8.8 trillion d…
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European markets rallied sharply this week as German borrowing costs soared after the country’s new leaders announced a historic deal to loosen its “debt brake” rule to boost spending on defense.The interest rate on German government bonds saw their biggest daily increase since October 1998.The Dax 30 index, which tracks the largest German companie…
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The average American is 39 years old - which is half the age of the sitting president - Donald Trump. When Ronald Reagan was inaugurated at 69 years old, he became the oldest person to have ever served as president. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are even older and are now - the two oldest men to ever be inaugurated as president. The average ages in th…
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Argentina’s president Javier Milei has been rocked by a scandal over his promotion of a memecoin called $LIBRA which soared in value before collapsing last week, triggering lawsuits and calls for impeachment.Buyers of the cryptocurrency accused the coin’s creators of - what is known as a “rug pull” scheme, a type of crypto pump and dump scheme - wh…
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From skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere, to man-made islands that are sinking into the sea. And from abandoned buildings to foolish transportation infrastructure - let's look at the world's most useless megaprojects.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFC…
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Last weekend Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 per cent levy on imports from China. Canadian oil was hit at a lower rate of 10 per cent. The duties will take effect from Tuesday. Just days later these tariffs were suspended.Trump said the actions were in response to the “major th…
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On Monday, over a trillion dollars was wiped off the US stock market due to the appearance of a Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek.The release of a new reasoning model, known as R1, led investors to question US dominance in tech, their expectations around future AI capex while also raising the prospect that China might beat Silicon V…
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1720 was a year of two bubbles and a plague - The Mississippi Company in France –and the South Sea Bubble in England were the first large scale financial bubbles on record. In September 1720 - when the bubbles burst, England and France were plunged into economic and political crisis's. These were amongst the first examples of financial boom and bus…
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The Los Angeles wildfires have destroyed more than 12,000 structures and at least 24 people have died with more unaccounted for as multiple wildfires, fueled by severe drought conditions and strong winds, continue to burn. Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate that the destruction will cost insurers as much as $30 billion dollars and after account…
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Donald Trump has promised to conduct “the largest deportation effort in American history,” no matter what it costs—but the price tag may be bigger than expected.In today's video we look at a history of US border control and the economic costs of deporting more than six percent of the US workforce while the US workforce ages. Patrick's Books:Statist…
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For years, the auto industry has been hyping the transition to electric vehicles with optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and huge growth projections. Investors pumped up valuations for automakers, based on their visions for an electric future.Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Fo…
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Here's a look back on some of the most impactful events in markets during 2024.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: / patrickboyleonfinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeaco…
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There is a long history of regulation and deregulation where big scandals provide the catalyst for new rules, and then the realization that the rules are possibly excessive has caused them to be rolled back.In finance the 1933 Glass-Steagall provisions came in the wake of the 1929 Crash. The 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act was a reaction to the Enron and W…
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Javier Milei has been in office for one year having taken over an economy on the brink of collapse. Milei managed to cut the monthly inflation rate from 26 per cent before he took office to 2.7 per cent in October. The Argentine peso has strengthened significantly against the black-market dollar over the past six months and Argentina’s sovereign bo…
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In today's video we examine Donald Trump's plan to rebalance global trade using tariffs, try to understand the issues with international trade that have been pushing the United States and other countries in this protectionist direction, and if tariffs can be expected to improve the situation or make things worse. We’ll discuss whether Trump could i…
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How Much of a Good Thing is Too Much? Victor Haghani Interview
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Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he …
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Marc Andreessen appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast this week arguing that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) should be shut down as it debanks conservatives.In today's video we use the example of the finfluencer promoted fintech bank Yotta - look at its ties to another fintech - synapse to try to understand if the CFPB should be defunde…
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Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading up Donald Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency which plans to take aim at wasteful government spending. On the campaign Elon Musk claimed that he could cut two trillion dollars in government spending. What would those cuts look like and how likely is Elon Musk to succeed? Does Elon Musk…
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The Great Depression was the worst and deepest peacetime economic shock in the history of the industrialized world. It brought about profound social change and was a significant factor in the drift towards the Second World War.The depth of suffering during the Depression years is hard for many of us to imagine today. More than 1 in five children in…
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The US Economy has been booming in recent years and most Americans are doing better than they were a year ago, unemployment is lower, wages are growing, and inflation is declining. It’s not just the one percent either, the statistics show that Americans across ages and social classes are doing really well. While people should be feeling these tangi…
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There has been a lot of press on how Europe is facing deindustrialization, where manufacturing employment is in terminal decline and the continent can no longer compete due to high energy prices, economic competition, and other factors. In today's video we try to work out if Europe is doomed and should pivot towards tourism - becoming the worlds mu…
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Big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google are driving the nuclear revival, as to get new power-hungry data centers built in the US and Europe, they have to solve the problem of power generation. Their net zero pledges mean that the sources of power that they have pledged to use have to be low carbon, and they have already invested heavil…
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Since the gold rush, California has been the go-to state for start-up companies. In recent years the Golden State has been losing the competition with neighboring states. More than 500 businesses have left California since 2005. Among these businesses were Fortune 500 companies and the economic impact from these departing companies is likely to be …
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The FBI created their own crypto token called NexFundAI as part of an investigation into price manipulation in crypto markets. As a result of the investigation, the SEC charged three “so-called market makers” and nine individuals for allegedly engaging in schemes to boost the prices of certain crypto assets. The Department of Justice charged 18 peo…
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Send us a textPrices for the most in-demand luxury watches have been in freefall on the secondary market since March 2022 as a pandemic-era rally fizzled. Are luxury watches a good investment, how do watch prices perform in the long run?Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https:…
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Send us a textAccording to the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, almost half of all corporate money contributed to this year's US election campaigns has come from crypto backers and politicians are bending to their will with promises to reduce regulation and consumer protections.Why do Trump and Kamala Harris suddenly support crypto? In today…
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Send us a textIn a recent CNBC interview Tony Robbins extolled the virtues of investing in private equity, arguing that private equity provided high returns – with low risk. Is he right? Should everyone invest in Private Equity?Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to…
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Send us a textAutomakers are hedging their bets on electric vehicles and stepping up their investment in hybrid cars as consumers’ growing disinterest in fully electric vehicles has forced the industry to shift gear.A combination of high EV depreciation and concern over inadequate charging infrastructure has chilled buyers’ enthusiasm for fully ele…
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Send us a textIt seems like every day the tech industry comes out with a "brilliant new idea” that turns out to be merely a reinvention of a mundane product that already existed. Tech bros keep reinventing the bus, but they have also taken to reinventing the tea pot, the toothbrush, the lunchbreak and the public park. In today's video we look at th…
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The British government is closing in on a bailout of the Chinese owned British Steel in which taxpayers would inject £600 million pounds into the group.British Steel is one of only two manufacturers of “virgin steel” in the UK alongside Tata Steel at Port Talbot in Wales which some industry experts claim is strategically important. Tata is in more …
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Send us a textIn recent years, a number of companies have been caught claiming to use artificial intelligence while in reality, outsourcing this work to humans. The SEC recently settled with two funds who were misleading investors about their use of the technology. While artificial intelligence has been widely used in industry for decades, not all …
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Adam Robinson - Strategy for Investing and for Life
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Send us a textSign up for Compounded Daily at this link: https://www.compoundeddaily.com/I welcome my friend Adam Robinson to the podcast, the person who has had possibly the most interesting career of anyone I know. He was a teenage Chess prodigy who trained with Bobby Fischer as Fischer prepared to play Boris Spassky for the 1972 world championsh…
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Send us a textOver the next five years the largest cohort of the baby boomer generation will reach retirement age and while it is broadly assumed that they will have comfortable retirements, a recent analysis of their assets shows that more than half of this final group of boomers are not financially prepared to retire whatsoever.In today's video w…
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Send us a textThis Monday was one of the worst days for global stock markets in years, Stocks in the US, Europe and Japan tanked on Friday and again on Monday before a partial rebound. Bond yields and foreign exchange rates swung around wildly too.The Magnificent seven stocks lost about $1 trillion dollars in value in just two days. So, what exactl…
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Send us a textBig Tech is slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs and blaming artificial intelligence, but there may be more to the story than that. Intel just announced fifteen thousand layoffs yesterday, causing their stock price to plunge. Big Tech, who for over a decade provided all sorts of employee perks may no longer be the dream place to wor…
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Send us a textThe activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered to authorities in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said.Both the SEC and a federal grand jury in the Central District of California brought charges against Andrew Left a prominent activist short se…
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Send us a textA Texas District Judge Andrew S. Hanen has dismissed all charges against seven social-media influencers the SEC and Justice Department had accused of perpetrating a “stock manipulation scheme” on Twitter and Discord, ruling that the prosecution failed to state an offense in a case alleging securities fraud. The influencers were accuse…
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Send us a textU.S. stocks are expected to get a short-term boost in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend, as analysts say the likelihood of his victory in November has increased. Trump's lead has extended itself since Biden's poor debate performance two weeks ago which left his biggest suppo…
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Send us a textGregor MacGregor was a Scottish soldier, adventurer, and con man who invented a Central American country called “Poyais,” in 1820 which he claimed to rule as the “Cazique.” MacGregor attempted to draw British and French investors and settlers to his fictional country. Hundreds invested in Poyaisian government bonds and land certificat…
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Send us a textEvery year, people around the world lose millions of dollars to a sophisticated scam known as “the pig butchering romance scam”. The scam takes its name from the victims, who the scammers call “pigs” that they "fatten up" before slaughter. It usually begins with a text message that appears to be a wrong number. People who respond are …
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Send us a textMillionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millio…
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