Inflation عمومی
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His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
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When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal. Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic re…
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Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary …
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The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures ex…
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The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses. This is an illuminating comment, s…
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"Money Illusion" sounds like the sort of thing your economics teacher droned on and on about, causing you to yearn for a nice nap during class. But is it a real thing? And if it is...why does it matter? In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains money illusion, presenting some of the evidence that it is (at least some of the time) a real phenomeno…
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In this (longer than normal) episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the outlook for inflation - which, admittedly, he did last week with the CPI Summary episode but in this case he delves into more of the drivers of his 2024 and 2025 expectations - and for several asset markets. He frames the question as a balance of the risks and makes concrete su…
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It's 2024, a fresh start to what is surely going to prove to be a golden year and the end to history! The SEC has approved bitcoin ETFs, the Fed is dovish and achieved a perfect landing, rates have come down a ton, and everything is beautiful. At least, as long as inflation really does collapse immediately to 2%, as the consensus seems to suggest. …
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It's the monthly CPI report! In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses today's economic data and highlights why the market's expectations for substantial easing in 2024 sets up a difficult path forward. He discusses several ways that inflation could get back to target, and then what needs to happen with policy to make that happen. Hint: it isn't…
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The notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including s…
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In this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily …
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This month's CPI report was softer than expected, which is welcome. And there were some quantitative effects in the data which (while expected in the big picture sense) are encouraging. However, a lot of the improvement this month were from fairly obvious one-off categories that moved in the opposite direction from what third-party surveys (for exa…
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The Inflation Guy has a little thing about risk. Not merely avoiding it, and certainly not seeking it - but counting it. By carefully decomposing risks into component parts, a portfolio manager can be better prepared for the sorts of risks that can befall a portfolio and also find cheaper ways to express the sorts of risk that he or she wants to ha…
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This morning's Payrolls Report was weaker-than-expected; among other things it included an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.9% - fully 1/2% higher than April's low for that number. Does this mean that we are going to have slower wage growth, and slower inflation? Or possibly one of those and not the other? And what does it mean for growth? Th…
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In this too-late-in-the-week episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy takes on supply and demand curves, market clearing prices and quantities, and says you're doing it all wrong. It's more nuanced than that, but they charge us by the word for these summaries. NOTES Blog Callback: “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” https://inflationguy…
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Sometimes, the episodes write themselves. In Episode 84, the Inflation Guy pointed out that with real yields now comfortably above 2%, TIPS are at least fair and possibly just downright attractive from a long-term perspective. "Is it Time to Buy TIPS?" he asked. But back in Episode 31, the Inflation Guy discussed "Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Ver…
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Another month, another CPI report. In recent months' reports, the Inflation Guy has warned "Don't Get Used to It!" (Episode 77) and "The Easy Part is Over" (Episode 81). Those months saw flaccid CPI figures that were easy to see through, and this month inflation returned to something approximating the old trend. In this episode, the Inflation Guy w…
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This is an episode with a call to action! In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the current state of nominal and inflation-linked yields, and gives some historical context as to where those stand in the Grand Scheme of Things. In doing so, he explains why TIPS' downside is much more well-defined that those of normal Treasury notes, and why t…
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So often, the Inflation Guy is asked to recommend a good book on inflation. Just one? That's crazy. There are oodles of good books on inflation, and in this episode the Inflation Guy recommends eight. Okay, one of the recommendations was less-than-enthusiastic. But these are all worth reading. Listen to the podcast, and visit the links below to see…
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Eleven episodes ago, the Inflation Guy presented five ways that endowment CIOs could improve their inflation allocations. In a way, that put the cart before the horse and so the IG is circling back: what is it about UPMIFA that virtually demands that CIOs address their asset strategies in real space? The basic problem is that two of the seven facto…
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In this edition of the monthly CPI Report Summary, the Inflation Guy sets the stage by reminding us about the backdrop: the low, low inflation reports of the last two months. These were somewhat quirky, in mostly different ways, and the IG explains why today's higher-than-expected inflation report is a sign that - although things are getting better…
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“Hedonic adjustment” is a curse word among those who think that inflation figures are all scrubbed to look nice by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (if they are, the BLS did a pretty rotten job of it over the last couple of years!), but it is not nearly as sinister as you might think it is. In this episode, the Inflation Guy goes inside-baseball agai…
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The inflation derivatives market is currently suggesting that prices will decline in the US between August (the report we get in a couple of weeks) and December. Does this mean that inflation is upon us? No, and the reason why is something called 'seasonal adjustment.' It turns out that seasonal adjustment is critically important for inflation mark…
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Recent data out of China has shown growing stresses in the property market, implying stresses in banking; weakness in the trade balance; and generally disappointing growth. This has led some observers to suggest a deflationary wave is headed our way. In this episode, the Inflation Guy recalls a prior example where weakness in Pacific Rim countries …
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The US CPI was released today and was a modest positive surprise to expectations that were already pretty optimistic in the sense that economists (and the Inflation Guy) were expecting a low print. In this podcast, the IG breaks down the report and points out the very positive developments...along with some curious quirks that soften the miss. But …
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